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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

US Actual Inflation Trend Heading for Stagflation or Deflation? / Economics / Inflation

By: Jas_Jain

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflationists have been crying wolf for the past three plus years despite the fact that the annualized headline CPI, including food and energy, and not seasonally adjusted, for 12M, 6M, and 3M has fluctuated around the 20-year trend of 3%+- (yes, the annualized inflation in the US for the past 20 years is 3.08%). As a matter of fact, despite huge run up in crude oil and agriculturals during the past year the CPI rates in the graph are below their highs during 2005-07. Labor costs are by far the most dominant contributor to the CPI.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

It is 1937 for the US Federal Reserve / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis Letter is a follow on from my article The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve and US Govt are known   in which, using the work of GB Eggertsson, we showed that the Fed/US Govt is following a plan to stimulate the economy and avoid a deflationary episode. Essentially the plan is to avoid the mistakes of the Depression and those of Japan in the 90's by using increased Government debt, monetized by the Fed, targeted directly at consumers. By employing a credible threat of an inflationary stance the Fed/US Govt hope to raise inflation expectations and therefore raise the price of assets. 

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Economics

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

40 Years of Real Interest Rates and, 80 Years of Dow/Gold Ratio / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...The infamous Dow/Gold Ratio just touched its long-run historic average. So which way next amid the Fed's inflationary melt-up...?"

IF WALL STREET STOCKS can surge 160 points on falling earnings, an 11% drop in housing starts, and a 16-year record for consumer-price inflation, then so can everything else that doesn't carry a picture of George Washington.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The "Real" US Economy / Economics / Corporate Earnings

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Everything was looking good until Friday. Instead of bringing good things to light, they turned out the lights on the nascent market rally and put everyone back on their heels. The GE report came after the government reported the trade deficit worsened the day before – without much fanfare. However, in our view the worsening trade deficit takes out one of the few remaining legs supporting the large multi-national companies, specifically that while domestic sales are down, the foreign sales should carry the day.

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Economics

Monday, April 14, 2008

The Problems Spread as US Recession Takes Hold / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Browne

Last week, General Electric one of the finest companies in the world and an American icon, announced a major fall in earnings. Amazingly, the bad news surprised Wall Street, and GE shares fell 13 percent in a single day. Some surprise!

GE is one of the best-diversified and well managed companies on earth, and is seen as a barometer of both the US and the world economies. Its latest earnings report was impacted by the expected fall in financial services and a continued strength in overseas earnings. However, it also showed a largely unexpected fall in the sales of US medical devises as public and not-for-profit hospitals, suffering massive increases in their borrowing costs, cut back on spending. 

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Economics

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Save the US Economy and Rekindle Democracy by Giving the Workers a Raise / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bright new financial system, with all its talented participants, with all its rich rewards, has failed the test of the marketplace. " Former Fed Chief, Paul Volcker

A specter is haunting Wall Street---the specter of insolvency. One major player, Bear Stearns, has already gone under, and from the looks of it, another may be on the way. It's getting ugly out there. The so-called TED spread---which measures the willingness of banks to lend to each other---has begun to widen ominously suggesting that the money markets believe another body will be floating to the surface any day now.

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Economics

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Why South Korea is set to Become the Biggest Economic Story of 2008 / Economics / South Korea

By: Keith_Fitz-Gerald

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhere should you put your money in 2008? And more importantly, how can you make money in 2008? These are not easy questions to answer. With the credit crunch sending shock waves around the globe, and the Fed's dismal attempts to solve the problem, these questions loom large ...

Fortunately, there are some good answers just waiting in the wings. One market in particular not only looks bulletproof, it is posting some of the fastest - and most consistent - productivity gains of all the Asian countries. In fact, this particular economy is one of the most competitive on the planet.  And get this: It's dirt cheap, trading at a P/E of only 12.

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Economics

Saturday, April 12, 2008

The Great TV Price Inflation Scam / Economics / Inflation

By: Tim_Iacono

Anyone wanting to better understand one of the primary reasons why we are in such an economic mess these days need look no further than the history of television prices over the last half-decade or more.

Actually there are two versions of TV prices - the real world "in"-flation experience and the government's "de"-flation version.

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Economics

Saturday, April 12, 2008

G7 Income Collapse as Credit Crisis Moves from Wall Street to Main Street / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWowee, things sure are unfolding quickly. Volatility is front and center as confusion reigns supreme in the broad investing public, driving them all over the place except to where they should be focusing. “Volatility is opportunity” and it is abundant, providing prepared investors with gargantuan opportunities. If you are not benefiting from it, “do more homework” or find a new advisor who does. The bear market in PAPER assets, or those underpinned by them, are in full retreat creating GIANT “fingers of instability” (see Tedbits archives at www.TraderView.com ) which provide opportunities for astute investors.

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Economics

Friday, April 11, 2008

Brother Can You Spare $10 Grand? / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe grainy footage of Great Depression soup lines and Hoovervilles now in heavy rotation on the major news outlets has been largely counterbalanced by a parade of economists who reassure us that such a protracted downturn is currently inconceivable. Their confidence stems primarily from the belief that government safety nets enacted since the New Deal, together with a Fed chairman who is a self-professed depression buff, will prevent a replay of the 1930s. As usual, this analysis is woefully optimistic and sidewalk pencil sales may in fact be a growth industry.

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Economics

Friday, April 11, 2008

UK Manipulated Inflation Statistics Erodes Value of Savings / Economics / UK Economy

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...A short-back and sides for the value of Sterling – Trim, trim! Snip, snip...!"

"ON THE DOWNSIDE," said the Bank of England when it trimmed UK interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, "the disruption in financial markets could lead to a slowdown in the economy sufficiently sharp to pull inflation below target."

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Economics

Friday, April 11, 2008

Falling US Dollar and Trouble with the Trade Deficit / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEver since the falling dollar really hit the radar screen of the mainstream media, one predictable, knee-jerk response was that this would be a miracle elixir for our ailing export economy. Further, they asserted, the weak dollar would cure the trade deficit. This is a prime example of what happens when textbook logic is used in place of reality. I dedicated the second edition of Economic Myth Busters back in September 2007 to the absurd notion that the weak dollar was good for the American economy. In the 6 months since the article some notable trends have developed.

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Economics

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Economic Data and Statistics- Distortions, Deceptions and Outright Lies / Economics / Market Manipulation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Beware.

The greatest threat to your financial future is not the danger you see or the beast you know. It stems from all those realities that you don't see or don't know.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Deficits Never Drove the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

The myth that President Bush's deficits rescued the American economy from recession has taken root among some conservative economic commentators. (Of course, if you are a hardcore Democrat then Republican economic policies are always awful). This is a typical Keynesian response by people who should damn well know better.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

The Future Actions of The Federal Reserve AND US Govt Are Known / Economics / Deflation

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn interpretation of The Deflation Bias and Committing to Being Irresponsible by G B Eggertsson

Introduction - This is going to be a long letter. It will attempt to explain the rational behind the current and future US Federal Reserve intentions from the point of view of Central Bank thinking. Firstly, you will need a coffee, a comfortable chair and an open mind.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

US Job Less Report- Surprise!, Surprise!, Surprise! / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Market analysts are sounding like Gomer Pyle upon the release of the employment report – surprise, surprise, surprise! Not only did the headline job loss come in worse than expected, but also the revisions to past months shaved enough from the initial estimates to put the first three months of the year into negative territory. Investor's will need to get used to being disappointed, as a recessionary environment tends to bring out the worst in economic data. Dead ahead is first quarter earnings, with Alcoa stepping off first. Already earnings have declined by more than 10% from the peak last year and expectations are actually high (if excluding the financial sector) for a decent earnings season. While the large multi-national firms should do just fine (as exports are doing very well), we don't believe the current economic environment supports a generally strong earnings season.

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Economics

Monday, April 07, 2008

US Economy, Commodity Prices and the Trade Cycle / Economics / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

The current economic situation brings to mind 1999 when worries about the state of the US economy were piling up faster than rationalisations about the country's alleged growth rate. There was less talk of a "new era" economy and more about a "correction". What was it that brought about a more subdued assessment in so many quarters? Commodity prices are the answer.

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Economics

Sunday, April 06, 2008

Is the US Fed Inflating or Deflating? / Economics / US Economy

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWelcome to the Weekly Report. This week, I stick my nose in where it ain't wanted. (again)We get down in the dirt about deflation and we look at some stocks and wonder why and I show you my long term indicators.

Now, I'm not one to boast, really I'm not. No one enjoys the likes of me stuffing “I told you so” remarks down reader's throats. There comes a time when it does become slightly unavoidable. Is it ego, a demand of recognition? Is it a desire to be kingpin, the ultra guru? Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn, as long as my readers get something that helps make life as an investor /trader easier then my attitude is “so what?”

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Economics

Saturday, April 05, 2008

Ring-Fence the Bad Assets- Re-Arranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic? / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYesterday I expressed my opinion on the lack of economic substance of allowing financial institutions to value the assets on their books at historical cost or whatever they so desire ( Mark It as You Choose, but Is Enough Cash Coming In? ). Today, yet another "costless" solution to the bad-asset problem is being put forth in the Financial Times - quarantine the bad apples from the good ( Wall St banks seek to ring-fence bad assets ).
,br> Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 05, 2008

Inflationary Losers in the Great Solvency Slump / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

"...Counting the winners and losers of the Great Solvency Slump so far – and guessing at the big winners to come..."

YOU DON'T HAVE TO be a rabid libertarian or Marxist historian with leather patches on his jacket to look at the current world banking crisis and ask " Cui bono...?"

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