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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Inflation and Negative Real Interest Rates are Necessary to Avoid Depression / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week's Outside the Box will challenge a few of your base assumptions. Paul McCulley, the managing director at PIMCO, offers us a kind word for inflation and the reasons that the Fed will be on hold for a lot longer than the markets currently think. And part of that is to avoid a real recession or even a depression. Getting this debate right is important.

These are indeed interesting times we live in. I look forward to being with Paul at the end of July on our Maine fishing expedition, where he can defend his proposition to the group of economists and analysts gathered there. Have a great week.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Mortgage Equity Withdrawals Slump- Another Blow to Household Cash Flow / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs my regular readers know - well, it is difficult to have "regular" readers if I don't write regularly anymore - I make a distinction between the wealth effect and the cash-in-hand effect. If the values of your stock portfolio or your house go up, you are wealthier "on paper," but you do not have any extra cash to spend. But if the value of your house goes up and you increase your borrowing against your housing collateral, then you have more cash in hand to spend.

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Economics

Monday, June 23, 2008

Don't Worry About a Return to 1970s Style Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: John_Derrick

Recent months have resurrected a potent economic villain of the past—stagflation.

The U.S. economy is seeing little to no growth, while at the same time inflation has risen to levels not seen in the better part of two decades due in large part to soaring food and energy prices.

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Economics

Monday, June 23, 2008

Central Banks Will Be Printing Money Like There's No Tomorrow / Economics / Money Supply

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThat's what master planners will be doing in continuing efforts to offset a collapsing credit cycle. And we are just a few short weeks away from when this should begin in earnest. Why not right now? Why will this likely take until July to begin in earnest? Well, for one thing master planners (heavy on the sarcasm) have it their minds they need to talk the dollar ($) up right now, at least until things start falling apart again. This is official Fed policy at present, and orthodox hedge fund managers are supporting it, along with selling commodities and precious metals. And the other thing is the stock market. As mention many times this year, hedge funds are locked into a sell commodities / precious metals and buy the $ / stocks trade for the present quarter that will be pushed aggressively right until the end of June.

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Economics

Monday, June 23, 2008

Inflation and Wages- Another Dangerous Economic Fallacy / Economics / Inflation

By: Gerard_Jackson

Economic fallacies are like dormant microbes, sooner or later they once again become active. However, the view that wages can cause inflation is one fallacy that never seems to go away. There are economists in the US, the UK and Australia warning that wage rises could trigger an inflationary surge. Nothing new here. In early 2005 Mark Whitehouse and Kemba Dunham of the Wall Street Journal complained that too much job growth generated inflation. In their view good job numbers would probably "fuel fears of higher inflation and cause bond prices to fall and interest rates to rise".

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Economics

Monday, June 23, 2008

US Economy to be Hit by Many Credit Crisis Hurricanes with Many Eyes / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOften times it is not the leading front of the hurricane that does the most damage, it is the backside. Here is the three stage pattern of hurricane damage.

  • Winds from the front side weaken but do not destroy structures
  • The eye of the hurricane brings a foreboding sense of unnatural calm
  • Wind comes slamming from the opposite direction as the eye passes over, shearing structures from the opposite direction
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Economics

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Inflation Hitting Emerging Markets / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFinancial Times: Goldman close to $7 billion SIV bail-out
“Goldman Sachs is close to finalising a plan to restructure a $7 billion investment vehicle formerly run by London-based hedge fund Cheyne Capital, in a move that could potentially usher in a crucial new phase in the credit turmoil.

“The US bank's proposed reorganisation of the so-called structured investment vehicle is set to be just the first of a number of deals that could see about $18 billion worth of SIV assets restructured in the coming months.

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Economics

Friday, June 20, 2008

US Recession Masked by the Fed Dumping Treasuries to Support Banking System / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor the second month in a row, the Conference Board's index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased by 0.1% in May. And for the second month in a row, the interest spread between the yield on the 10-year Treasury security and the fed funds rate made a large positive contribution to the change in the LEI, 0.14 in April and 0.19 in May. All else the same, had it not been for the positive contributions from the interest spread component, the LEI would have contracted in April and May. Is there any reason to hypothesize that the spread component is biased upwards?

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Economics

Thursday, June 19, 2008

UK Retail Sales High Street Boom- The Truth Behind the Headlines / Economics / UK Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the midst of the worst economic conditions in nearly 20 years, May saw retail sales soar by a surprising annualised rate of 8.1%, the highest rate in 20 years, up 3.4% for the month. The surge is more akin to that expected during boom times rather than the bust that the UK is fast heading towards. The mainstream media immediately seized on the headline rate to announce Britain is experiencing a mini high street spending boom. However looking behind the headline figures tells a different story.

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Economics

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Inflation Will Inevitably Surge Even Higher! / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: I first met Martin about 14 years ago, at the Weiss School in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, where I had enrolled my three young children.

Martin was running his research and ratings company on the east side of the building, while his wife, Elisabeth, was running the school, on the west side of the building.

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Economics

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Wage Price Inflation Spiral Plus House Price Deflation Equals Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWarnings of a further 40% hike in energy costs this year puts the Bank of England on high alert for a wage price spiral kicking in which will lead to much higher and prolonged inflation. The first signs of this are in the 14% pay hike agreed with the Shell subcontracted tanker haulers over 2 years at 7% per year which is more than double the current CPI inflation rate of 3.3%. The public sector unions are seizing this event to warn that recent pay agreements that cover the next 2 years will have to be negotiated in line with the rising cost of living signaling a 'Winter of Discontent' for Gordon Browns Labour government.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

G8 Fail to Address Growing Global Instability / Economics / Global Financial System

By: John_Browne

With market watchers the world over feeling increasingly alarmed by spreading economic problems, much hope and attention was focused on Japan last weekend as finance ministers and central bankers of the G-8 (Group of Eight) nations gathered to apparently map out a coordinated global response. In particular, all hoped that the delegates would conjure a plan to save the dollar from the dustbin and stop the price of oil and food from pushing the world into crisis.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

US Economy Hits the Canvas, Fed Expected to Keep Rates on Hold at 2% / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe economy is in tatters. Consumer confidence has plummeted, food and energy prices are soaring, and the housing market is experiencing its biggest crash since the Great Depression. Manufacturing is down, unemployment is up, gasoline is topping $4 per gallon, and tent cities are sprouting up throughout the Southwest. If there's a silver lining to this mess; it's not visible from planet earth.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

UK CPI Inflation Breaks Above Bank of England's Upper 3% Limit / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The UK Consumer Price Index rose to 3.3% for May 08 above the consensus forecasts of 3.2% pushing inflation to a 11 year high on the back of a surge in import and producer prices. Surging inflation not only puts a hold on further UK interest rate cuts but opens the door to what can only be construed as panic rate hikes later in the year to prevent a wage price spiral from taking hold and pushing the UK economy into stagflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Lousy Monetary Policy and Economic Commentary Due to Ignorance / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: Gerard_Jackson

Some readers think I'm exaggerating the dismal state of economic debate in Australia. Alas, if that were only true. Last April The Australian referred to P. D. Johnson, aka Henry Thornton, as opining that current economic policy with respect to inflation could cause a recession. He went on to argue that we could be seeing the return of 'Goodhart's law'. ( The Australian , Is he on the right track? , Graham Lloyd, 26 April 2008). Johnson defines this law as "Any statistical relationship that is relied upon will cause changes of behaviour that?changes the?relationship". ( The Return of the Check List ). This is really bad stuff.

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Economics

Monday, June 16, 2008

Emerging Markets Infrastructure Boom Opportunities / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Frank_Holmes

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe investment opportunity in infrastructure seems to be getting bigger and better all the time, especially in emerging markets.

Merrill Lynch came out with a new research report that raises the expected spending on emerging-markets infrastructure to $2.25 trillion over the next three years, nearly double its earlier estimate.

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Economics

Monday, June 16, 2008

Fed Failure has Put United States on the Path to Hyper-inflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMan is his own worst enemy – this truism has proven itself over and over in history – and is doing so once again in our handling of economy. As you undoubtedly know the consumer is on the ropes and in need of relief due to excessive credit. True to form however, and consistent with our title today, just when this is happening, commodity prices have lit-up, and are showing no signs of retreat, especially energy prices. This has created a very big problem for central planners they can actually identify within their incompetence, that being, in order to tackle the effects of inflation, they will genuinely (a few choice words in the Fed Minutes won't do the trick) need to show fiscal restraint, or crude oil will go to $200, the dollar will break 70, and it's hyperinflation here we come.

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Economics

Monday, June 16, 2008

Economic Calendar Forecasts and Analysis: Week Ahead In US Financial Markets (June 16-20 2008) / Economics / US Economy

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe market will observe a healthy amount of macroeconomic data to be released during the upcoming five trading days. The major data that have the capacity to move the market will be the release of the PPI and housing starts data for May, both of which will be released on Tuesday. Fed talk for the week will be light and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke will speak before a Senate committee on healthcare and US competitiveness on Monday.

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Economics

Sunday, June 15, 2008

INFLATION Means the Choice Between Stagflation and Recession- Part 2 / Economics / Inflation

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Click here for Part 1 - Jim Sinclair (Mineset): Bernanke has painted himself into a corner
“The euro is down hard today on the premise that this is the start of increased interest rates in the US, a statement that is totally ludicrous.

“There are two possibilities here:

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Economics

Sunday, June 15, 2008

INFLATION Means the Choice Between Stagflation or Recession / Economics / Inflation

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Electric Light Orchestra lyrics “… you took me ohh, higher and higher baby, it's a living thing, it's a terrible thing …” have been mulling through my head over the past week as central bankers' inflation-fighting rhetoric moved to centre stage.

A succession of hawkish comments from US policymakers persuaded pundits that the US rate-cutting cycle was over, resulting in a stronger US dollar, plummeting government bonds, predominantly lower global stock markets (with Asia seeing the most red), and non-agricultural commodities coming off the boil.

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