Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, August 18, 2008
US Recession, Economic Data is a Lagging Indicator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
In this weekend's Thoughts from the Frontlines, I quoted from part of a very thoughtful, right-on-target analysis by David A. Rosenberg entitled "The Elusive Bottom." Over the weekend, I decided that you should read the whole piece, as Rosenberg makes some very solid points about how the markets and the economy may play out over the next few years. He has a non-consensus viewpoint, but that is what I like for Outside the Box. In fact, I think this is one of the more thought-provoking pieces I have used in OTB for some time. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
G7 Collapsing GDP Growth Mirrors Plunging Corporate Earnings / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
Confusion reigns supreme as markets correct, in predictable manner, allowing the Main stream financial press, G7 central banks and poorly prepared investors dream of the days when the financial wind was at their backs, rather then brutally in their faces. Markets are moving in a violently countertrend manner allowing people and investors with short term memories to predict the return to happy days. Don't blink or you may miss your day in the sun as: NOTHING HAS CHANGED! Absolutely nothing. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (August 18-22) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of August 18-22 will see a very light week of economic data on the calendar. Aside from Dallas Fed President Fisher's comments on the US Economy on Wed, the only potentially market moving macro data for the week will be the Monday release of the PPI and Tuesday publication of the Housing Starts series for July. The remainder of the major data for the week will be released on Thursday when the weekly jobless claims series, the August Philadelphia Fed survey and the June index of leading economic indicators are published. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Double Digit Inflation Forecasts are way off base / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
BusinessWeek is Bracing for Inflation . Let's take a look at an article written by John K. Castle, CEO of Castle Harlan, a New York private equity firm.
Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Crashing Global Economy Boosts Dollar as Interest Rate Differentials Narrow / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Almost exactly a year after the advent of the credit debacle, the term “credit crunch” squeezed into Britain's Chambers dictionary, defined as “a sudden and drastic reduction in the availability of credit”.
Fittingly, the past week witnessed market participants focusing anew on deteriorating global growth prospects, arguing that slower growth and belt-tightening times could reduce inflation pressures.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
Economic Decoupling Fails as World Follows US into Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
- A Mid-Year Correction
- Whatever Happened to Decoupling?
- The UK Starts to Slow
- A Recession by Any Other Name
- What's a Central Banker to Do?
The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world. And Europe's new and growing markets would be able to stave off problems from abroad and stay on their own growth path. The world, we were assured last year, would not suffer from problems in the US economy.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Euro-zone on the Brink of Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Jennifer Yousfi writes: The Eurozone economy recorded its first decline in more than a decade as slowdowns in the European Union's largest economies dragged on gross domestic product (GDP).
The Eurozone economy, which covers the 15 nations that share the euro currency, contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, as a 0.5% decline in Germany and a 0.3% decline in France offset gains in the smaller economies of Austria, Portugal and Spain, Eurostat, the European Union's official statistics office, announced yesterday (Thursday).
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Fundemental Change as Global Economy Heads For Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global economy is slowing rapidly. Let's take a look at some striking examples. Germany, France, Spain, Italy
Bloomberg is reporting German, French Economies Shrink as Spending, Investment Falter .
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
Global Oil, Food and Water Crisis Economic Tipping Points / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'll discuss the state of the markets shortly. First, I'd like to discuss the state of the world's future.
According to a long-term study just released by the U.S. Naval Services Department, a series of tipping points could dramatically alter the global prospects for economic growth and humanity — for the worse.
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
US Deceptive Q2 GDP Based on Fraudulent Price Deflator / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
It is hard to find much positive regarding the gold trade lately. The attacks have been multi-faceted during the weak late summer season. So resort to something of value: THE TRUTH. As Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “The greatest homage one can pay to the truth is to tell it.” When the US financial lattice work was showing clear signals of near total destruction, if not simple decimation, when USGovt bailouts seemed certain to cost in the trillion$ from mortgage agency rescues and FHA mortgage loan mulligans (second chance shot in golf), when US banks seemed caught in a race to raise more cash for equity from friendly foreign fools who fail to read the news, when the USEconomic recession has been turning broad and deep, when General Motors and Ford seem caught managing their death process toward a certain bankruptcy, THE USGOVT NEEDED A REALLY GOOD LIE FROM WHICH TO BUILD A DOLLAR BOUNCE. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Global Goldilocks Economy ? / Economics / US Economy
By: Kurt_Kasun
The new narrative forming among the Goldilocks crowd is that US economic supremacy reigns once again, as manifest in a reawakened "King Dollar". The US dollar will continue to strengthen, commodity prices will plummet, and the stock market can only rally from here since all of the bad news has already been discounted. The Global Goldilocks view is that the rest of the world slows just enough to dampen commodity pressures and prices, but the world does not slow too much to wreck the American economy. The dollar strengthens resulting in capital flows into the US . And voila-- we have a return to the glory days of the 1990s. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Bank of England's Worthless 2% 2Year CPI Inflation Forecasts / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England's in depth 48 page quarterly inflation report published yesterday concludes with the forecast for UK CPI inflation to be at 2% in 2 years time. Since the Bank of England first adopted the 2% CPI inflation target back in 2003, the Bank has perpetually made the same forecast for 2% CPI in two years time, and nearly always missed the target by a wide margin. Clearly there is something wrong in the banks procedures which appears to deliver the motions of generating paper work such as the 48 page report, followed by pats on the back rather than an effective response to the failure to meet the Banks primary objective.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
UK Inflation Shocking Rise to 4.4% CPI Confirms Stagflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation data for July CPI inflation came in at a truly shocking rate of 4.4%, up 0.6% on June and well beyond our expectations for CPI inflation of 4.1% with the upper worse case scenario of inflation of 4.3%. Whilst at the same time the more recognised RPI measure equally rose to a shocking 5% rate also up 0.6% on June and now matches the base interest rate of 5% as the UK heads for negative real interest rates which has very bearish implications for sterling.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 11, 2008
Economic Deflation is Not Coming, Deflation is Here! / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
David, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's chief North American economist, says the US Remains Firmly In Recession . Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg, the first economist from a major bank to declare a US recession was underway back in early January, argues that recent unemployment figures show yet more evidence that the US economy is a deep recession. My Comment : I could not possibly agree more.
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
Italy Tips Into Recession as Q2 GDP Contracts / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Victoria_Marklew
The first of the Euro-zone's big economies reported preliminary Q2 GDP data today -- and the picture was not a pretty one. Italy's GDP contracted 0.3% q-o-q in Q2, and posted zero growth on the year.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
The Fast Disappearing U.S. Middle Class / Economics / US Stock Markets
By: Jennifer_Barry
I've been concerned about the state of the U.S. economy for several years, but only recently has mainstream America started waking up to the severity of the crisis. Even the depths of the Dow bear market in 2003 didn't engender this much pessimism. At the time, most people still believed that stocks would go up in the long run, and it was time to scoop up the bargains. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
American Dream Optimism in Denial of Inflation and Slumping Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
In holding overnight rates steady at 2% this week, the Fed once again put forth its belief that despite a cascade of horrific financial data, the economy was likely to continue to grow slowly and that inflation would moderate. Although wrong on both counts, this view is consistent with the relative optimism that prevails across the country. After nearly two decades of an uninterrupted consumption binge, most Americans simply refuse to believe that anything can seriously derail the American economy. It's a pleasant dream, but the wakeup call can't be too far off. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
Rising Inflation Ensures Stock Markets Headed for More Distress / Economics / Inflation
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The enthusiastic response of the market to the moderation in the price of imported oil and the Fed monetary statement is a bit overdone. It is based on the hope that inflation will moderate rather than a hard-nosed look at the pricing environment. Our Senior Economic advisor Bill Poole, who knows more than a bit about crafting a coherent Fed statement, reminded the market recently that since August 2006 the FOMC in one way or another has been signaling that they anticipate inflation will moderate in coming quarters. Yet, our core inflation forecast suggests otherwise. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
US Economic Wealth Last Chance Saloon Rant / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mick_Phoenix
What a feckin mess we are in. Yea how the mighty have fallen, whom those that expect wealth see only ruin, how the public will bail out the profligate. Welcome to the incredibly horrible world I have foreseen and how Eggertsson got it so right but how the endgame is so wrong for Joe Public. You think the Mogambo Guru has a deep bunker of absolute denial (MBDBOD)? Well I'll let you into a secret, the fecker is digging wayyyyyy higher in the earths crust than I am. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 07, 2008
US Soaring Jobless Claims and the "L" Shaped Recession / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Implications Of An Overleveraged Consumer For an economy overleveraged on consumer spending the chart could hardly look worse. Yet, it is going to get worse, lots worse. Hiring has stalled, commercial real estate is hitting the skids, vacancy rates at malls are rising, lease rates are dropping. In short, the Shopping Center Economic Model Is History .
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