Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Contracting S&P 500 Corporate Earnings Confirm US Recession / Economics / Corporate Earnings
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Are we in a recession or are we not? The debate goes on. Take a look at the year-over-year change in operating profits of the S&P 500 corporations (see Chart 1). Profits have declined for three consecutive quarters through the first quarter of this year. Given reports of second-quarter profits to date and estimates of those corporate profits to be reported, it is a good bet that year-over-year profits will be down for four consecutive quarters. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
The Paradox of Deleveraging at the Heart of the Credit Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
I have often commented about the problem of personal savings. We worry about the lack of savings here in the US, but many do not understand that if everyone started to save 5% of there income immediately that it would seriously impact consumer spending, pushing the US into a recession. It is a paradox, as Paul McCulley points out, that what may be good for the individual may not be good for the collective country. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
US Recession Trend Status on US GDP Growth Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: A hectic week on the economic calendar is highlighted by the initial look at second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Remember, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so doomsayers have targeted this week's release as confirmation of their pessimism.
Fortunately, the analyst consensus holds that the economy expanded at a faster pace than the 1% rate of the first quarter, putting us safely outside of recession territory. Investors get another view inside the struggling labor market where layoffs (mainly among financials) have resulted in overall job contractions for five consecutive months.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 28, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (July 28-August 1) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of July 28-August 1 will see a fairly significant amount of US macro data. The major releases will be clustered near the end of the week on Thursday and Friday. Thursday will see the publication of the preliminary GDP for Q2, jobless claims, Chicago PMI and the employment cost index for Q2. The week will be capped by the release of the July non-farm payrolls report and the estimate of the ISM of national manufacturing conditions for that same month. Tuesday will see the release of July consumer confidence survey by the Conference Board and Wednesday will see the ADP estimate of payrolls for July. The week will see another heavy five days of earnings statements with heavyweights such as Disney, Starbucks, Chevron and Berkshire-Hathaway reporting near the end of the week. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Bernanke Seeks a Great Depression to Test His Thesis / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mick_Phoenix
It has been a rather busy time for The Collection Agency, picking up assets in lieu of cash. Anyone need a badly treated, surplus to requirements, Bank customer desk or ten? I can do job lots.
We start off with an excerpt from The Bernanke Conundrum written on 8th May 08:
Sunday, July 27, 2008
US Economy Contracting as Paulson Seeks to Rescue Collapsing Banks / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell 0.1% in June, following a revised 0.2% drop in May (previously estimated as a 0.1% increase). The quarterly average of LEI is down 2.0% from a year ago, the largest decline in the current business cycle. Historically, such large year-to-year declines of the quarterly average of the index are associated with recessions, with the exception of 1967.
“The National Bureau of Economic Research announces the dates of peaks and troughs of business cycles long after they occur because they need to wait for revisions of economic data. The main message from today's LEI data is that it confirms the severely weak status of the economy in the near term. LEI data have been sending warning signals for several months but they have been largely ignored.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Euro-Zone Slowng Credit Growth and Money Supply / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's ECB data on credit and money supply showed that the pace of loan growth to the private sector is easing, coming in at 9.8% on the year in June, versus 10.5% in May.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
UK Economy Sharp Slowdown on Q2 GDP of 0.2% / Economics / UK Economy
By: Victoria_Marklew
Today's preliminary Q2 GDP report from the UK showed real growth slowing to 0.2% on the quarter and 1.6% on the year, the weakest in three years and down from 0.3% and 2.3%, respectively, in Q1. A marked fall in construction output, the result of weakness in private house building, was largely to blame - down 0.7% on the quarter. However, the slowdown in the dominant service sector was also notable, with growth of just 0.4% on the quarter and 2.1% on the year, the weakest annual growth in 16 years.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2008
US Conflicting Economic Data : Payrolls and Second Quarter GDP Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The upcoming week will be defined by two closely linked US macroeconomic data that will frame the debate about which direction the economy is poised to take during the latter half of 2008. Yet, these two data are likely to paint two very different portraits regarding the condition of the economy. On Thursday the market will observe the preliminary estimate of economic growth during the second quarter of the year, followed by the publication of the July non-farm payrolls the next morning. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn...of a Economic Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Kurt_Kasun
The financial system will collapse before "zero-hour" actually occurs. I think we are seeing signs of it in the desperate measures being employed to nationalize companies which trade on market exchanges as private enterprises. There is simply no way to defend the SEC's decision to selectively enforce the prohibition of naked short selling for 17 ‘fragile' financial companies and to not enforce it for the over 5000 other companies which trade on US stock market exchanges. And plans to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac breathe of a sort of corporate nationalism. Over time this will deal a massive psychological blow to financial markets. They are currently rallying on the sense of relief that the efforts to prevent Fannie and Freddie from dragging US financial markets into the abyss have succeeded and the inevitable day of reckoning has been postponed once again. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
UK Retail Sales Worst Slump in 20 Years Surprises Market Commentators / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Retail Sales for June fell by a record 3.9% inline with the evidence of a rapidly slowing UK economy which is hitting the retail sector hard. Many mainstream market commentators have been taken by surprise by the released data as it follow hard on the heels of Mays surprise jump of 3.4% which was taken by many commentators at the time as the signs of a mini high street spending boom despite mounting evidence of a distressed retail sector which has witnessed literally crashing share prices on the back of earnings warnings as witnessed by Marks and Spencer's 20% crash at the start of this month. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Crude Oil Prices, Monetary Stability and Credit Expansion / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Gerard_Jackson
I would like to say that economic commentary on the present energy situation is an improvement on what has gone on before. As I said, I would like to. The media message is an old one. Whether it be America, Australia or Europe the cry from greens is that rising oil prices are good for us because they conserve oil and speed up alternative energy and transport technologies. So successful has this line of attack been that some so-called free-market commentators have mindlessly parroted it, oblivious to the fact that it flies in the face of economics.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
China's First Experience with Paper Fiat Money / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Mike_Hewitt
Paper, one of the four Great Inventions by the Ancient Chinese along with printing, the compass and gun powder, was invented by Cai Lun in 105 A.D. from bark, rags, wheat stalks and other materials. The first historical use with paper money began shortly thereafter around 140 B.C., nearly 1800 years before its arrival in Europe. How this money came to an end is not known.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
UK Economy Heading for Recession 2009, All Gloom and Doom? / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What a difference a few weeks can make as if out of the blue the UK is headed for a deep dark recession as per headlines gripping the mainstream press of late. Whereas the fact of the matter is that none of this has appeared out of the blue, articles at the Market Oracle both penned by myself and others have laid the precise time-line for events long before the current doom and gloom headlines appeared. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
US Financial & Economic Crisis Heading for Repeat Misery of Japans Lost Decade / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Money_Morning
William Patalon III writes: If you think the "Lost Decade" Japan endured during the 1990s was deep and painful, stick around: As the global financial crisis that was jump-started by the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market continues to unwind, the U.S. economy is headed for a financial Ice Age that will make Japan's 10 wasted years seem like a single chilly night. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Commercial Bankruptcies Soar as BLS Jobs Data Shown as Worthless / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The McClatchy Washington Bureau is reporting Commercial bankruptcies soar, reflecting widening economic woes . Commercial filings for the first half of 2008 are up 45 percent from last year, as the national climate for commerce continues to deteriorate amid rising energy and food costs, mounting job losses, tighter credit and a reticence among consumers to part with discretionary income.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 20, 2008
California Insolvent as Schwarzenegger's Financial Wizardry is Terminated / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday, in Taxpayers Can Bear No More , we discussed the record public debt problem in the UK. Chancellor Alistair Darling made it "clear that he thought that the only politically viable option was to increase borrowing, rather than to raise taxation." In the US, states are facing similar budget dilemmas.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Credit Crisis and Housing Bust- Don't Worry the World Will Not End / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
- The World Will Not End
- Take a Deep Breath
- 9% Growth in Housing or a 4% Loss?
Housing starts rose 9% and the market cheerleaders proclaimed that we have seen a bottom. But not if you look at the actual numbers. New unemployment claims were OK, but not if you look at the actual numbers. And inflation was simply ugly, no matter what numbers you look at. However, oil is down and there is reason to think it may have further to go on the downside. We cover all this and more, as we first look at why the world is not going to end.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
US Consumer Retail Sales Contraction Worse than 2001 / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Don't write off the U.S. consumer, right? Wrong. On a year-over-year basis there has been a sharp deceleration in nominal retail sales growth. On a year-over-year basis, there has been a sharp contraction in price-adjusted retail sales. The chart below using quarterly average data illustrates this. Growth in nominal retail sales peaked back in the first quarter of 2006 at 7.6% in this cycle. In the second quarter of this year, nominal retail sales growth had slowed to just 2.6%.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Brown Breaks Another Golden Rule, Real UK Debt Above 40% of GDP / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Following abandoning of the rule for a balanced budget over an economic cycle, which was broken more than two years ago and followed by repeat manipulation of the start date of the economic cycle and has since been quietly forgotten from Treasury statements. Now the next golden unbreakable rule for economic competence that Gordon's Darling is busy reconstructing for the electorate to swallow is that Government debt must remain below 40% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Read full article... Read full article...