Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, April 05, 2010
Greece Debt Crisis Bailout, Europe Out of Time-Outs / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Bryan_Rich
In sports, if the opposition is on a roll and the momentum is squarely against you … you need a “time-out.” This interruption in action can break the rhythm of the opposing team and give your team a moment to re-evaluate and re-group.
In the euro zone, European officials called a time-out back in February hoping to stem the heavy wave of selling against the euro and the speculative pressures on sovereign debt risk.
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Monday, April 05, 2010
China Yuan Repegging and Other Non Free Market Trade Imbalance Solutions Are Doomed to Fail / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mike_Shedlock
In spite of much yapping by economists, especially Paul Krugman, I strongly doubt a currency repeg by China would do much (if indeed anything at all) to cure any global imbalances.
Sunday, April 04, 2010
U.S. Dollar Gains on March Jobs Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: LiveCharts
For only the second time in the 27 month period since the start of the US recession, employers have added jobs. This is the news from the US Labor Department in its monthly payroll report for March released early Friday (April 2) morning.
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Sunday, April 04, 2010
Is This a Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Mauldin
Is This a Recovery?
This Time is Different
The End Game
Some Good News on Unemployment
The Effects of a Tax Increase
Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the rest of my life to be more than one grim, dreary period. What is your investment advice for those with roughly a 10-year horizon, not 30-40-50 years?"
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Sunday, April 04, 2010
Underemployment In The U.S. Rises to 20.3% in March / Economics / US Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
Reports from the Labor Department today showed companies in the U.S. created more jobs in March than at any time in the past three years, showing the recovery is broadening and becoming more entrenched.
Payrolls rose by 162,000 workers, the most gain since March 2007, though the increase included 48,000 temporary Census workers. Unemployment remains at 9.7% for a third month.
Sunday, April 04, 2010
U.S. Friday Jobs Report / Economics / US Economy
By: PhilStockWorld
Most markets are closed Friday. Japan was open and they went up 41 points (0.37%) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also went up 0.3% in Tokyo 1trading and Russia fell 0.1% but markets in Australia, Hong Kong, China, New Zealand, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, the U.S. and all of western Europe are closed today for holidays. Strangely though, the Futures Market is open this morning so that can make things very tricky on a big data day like today.
Saturday, April 03, 2010
India’s Emerging Ambitions / Economics / India
By: Anthony_David
The Indian government plans to sell a stake of about 10% from the state-owned Manganese Ore (India) Ltd as part of the government’s drive to sell steel-related state assets. Manganese Ore is the nation’s largest manganese producer and meets about 65% of the domestic needs. The company, meanwhile, has plans to ramp up its ferro-manganese production capacity. On the flip side, the company’s finance director has warned that the company’s profits at the end of the current fiscal is likely to show a drop of about 22% because of the lower steel demand last year.
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Friday, April 02, 2010
US Labor Market adds 163k Jobs? Is it for Real or another Sham? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Shaily
Blog writers have been overwhelmingly negative on the increasingly deteriorating unemployment situation in the US. No matter what data is released, they are discarded as unreal or so full of holes that an elephant could walk through them.
Even the current BLS report seems to have been bashed pretty badly by most blogs.
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Friday, April 02, 2010
U.S. Jobs Increase by 136,000, Unanswered Questions About Seasonality / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
This morning the BLS reported an increase of 136,000 jobs. Headline unemployment was unchanged at 9.7%. Before diving into the numbers let's look at a couple questions from a live Q&A session. The BLS took questions in advance.
Friday, April 02, 2010
Increasing Debt Increases Economic Growth Say the Keynesians / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
You may not have watched my video seminar, "Retirement Armageddon." It's here.
Let me explain why you should.
In fiscal 2010, the Federal debt will increase by an estimated $1.5 trillion, give or take $100 billion.
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Thursday, April 01, 2010
U.S. Debt–to-GDP Situation, When Will the Dominos Align / Economics / US Debt
By: Hans_Wagner
In February 19, 2010 Wall Street Journal, Daniel Henninger included the following chart in his column. Federal spending has grown seven times the real median household income over the last 40 years. At some point, the government will be unable to pay for all the new programs, stimulus, healthcare, rapid expansion in number of government employees, etc. The market will drive up the cost of debt to levels that lead to default. Many say it cannot happen to the U.S.
Thursday, April 01, 2010
India Economy and Stock Market Relentless Surge / Economics / India
By: Shaily
India has been on a relentless surge, both in the real economy and the equity markets. 100% return in 12 months is not something one would have had expected in April 2009, as Fund Managers, Hedge Funds and Private Equity funds were running for cover. Index had just dipped below 9,000 in 2009.
In fact Rahul Bhasin (MD, Barings PE) was on record: India Sensex Fair Value 7,500.
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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
You Still Believe The Fed Can Stop Deflation? / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Recent history proves that the Fed's "control" is just an illusion. March 31, 2010
Think back to the fall of 2007. The deflationary "liquidity crunch" that over the next year-and-a-half cuts the DJIA in half, decimates commodities, real estate and world markets is only starting. Almost no one believes that the crash is coming -- to a large degree, because everyone is convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, with Ben Bernanke at the helm, will never allow deflation to happen: It can just print money!
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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
U.S. Unemployment Increasing Seasonal Adjustment Amplitude / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
My question is on the the increasing amplitude of BLS seasonal adjustments as noted in BLS Seasonal Adjustments Gone Haywire; 11% Unemployment Coming by May?
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
The China Economic Growth Juggernaut Is Alive and Well / Economics / China Economy
By: Tony_Sagami
It is becoming quite popular to say that China’s bubble is about to burst. Not a chance. Like Mark Twain said, “reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Solving Britain's Economic Crisis Through Micro Business Capital Investments and Credit / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain had bet its future on the financial sector as the means for delivering economic prosperity and lost. The financial sector over the past 3 decades had mushroomed to an enormous size on terms of over leveraged liabilities extending to more than 5 times UK GDP that has imploded in spectacular style following the start of the Credit Crisis in August 2007 which has now left the country on the brink of bankruptcy under the burden of the liabilities of the banking sector (most denominated in foreign currencies), unsustainable annual budget deficit and the growing public sector debt mountain.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
U.S. Census Numbers Uncensored / Economics / US Economy
By: Casey_Research
Vedran Vuk, Casey Research writes:
The Census aims to be every man’s hero. It promises an economic stimulus, a reduction in unemployment, and greater funds for every community. Of course, the reality is much closer to a game of musical chairs with your money. And guess who will be left standing?
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
10 Signs of Speculative Mania in China / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are reading a GMO white paper on China’s Red Flags
Read full article... Read full article...In the aftermath of the credit crunch, the outlook for most developed economies appears pretty bleak. Households need to deleverage. Western governments will have to tighten their purse strings. Faced with such grim prospects at home, many investors are turning their attention toward China. It’s easy to see why they are excited. China combines size – 1.3 billion inhabitants – with tremendous growth prospects. Current income per capita is roughly one-tenth of U.S. levels. The People’s Republic also has a great track record.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Academic Economics Profession in Crisis / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Dear economics department chairman,
In all the formal economic study I have sat through, I have developed a growing concern for the direction of the economics profession in general, and economic education in particular. Let me explain — and challenge you.
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Tuesday, March 30, 2010
U.S. Economic Stimulus Works, Economy Recovers Under Obama / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Daniel_Bruno
Economists at Deutsche Bank are calling for a big surge in employment numbers as retail sales recover in the United States. The chart below, from www.fxboss.info shows the relationship between retail sales and non-farm payrolls. In America’s consumer driven economy, retail sales lead the way out of business recession and consequent double-digit unemployment. “Retail sales have turned up as recession fatigue has worn off sharply,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at Deutsche Bank in New York. “There should soon be a pretty big
pickup in job growth. If history repeats, we’ll be blindsided by job gains.”