Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
How to Profit From China’s Economic Role Model: Singapore / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: China's economic model has been extraordinarily successful. But the Asian giant didn't create it out of thin air.
It had a role model.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Deeper Double Dip Recession as Keynesian Fails / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Gary_North
The case for a secondary recession rests on several factors: a double-dip decline in the residential real estate market, the accelerating decline in the commercial real estate market, the unresolved losses in bank balance sheets, the narrow focus of the profitability (earnings), which has been limited to bailed-out banks, and the threat of rising long-term interest rates, i.e., a decline in the bond market.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Russia’s Economic Recovery Priorities Focus on Modernization and Innovation / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
Russia’s Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin delivered his traditional annual speech at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow last week, in which he highlighted his vision of the pressing needs for Russia’s economy. We make a synthesis of these and add the opinion of another economic expert.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Decline in Bank Lending: Business Investment in America is almost at a Standstill / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Bob_Chapman
One of the reasons for less bank lending is the almost non-existent market for securitized bonds. Investors have so many bad loans on their books that they refuse to commit to further risky investments. This means banks are forced to hold this toxic paper on their books and that inhibits them from lending at higher levels. If the Fed had not purchased $1.7 trillion of this toxic junk many banks would currently be in bankruptcy. Thus, there still are trillions in these bad loans on the books of many financial institutions and they cannot be sold and they are clogging up the system, and there is no end in sight for the problem.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
UK Inflation Soars CPI 3.4%, RPI 4.4%, Bank of England Forecast Wrong as Usual / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Inflation CPI surged higher for March from 3% to 3.4% taking the academic economists that populate the mainstream press by surprise against consensus views of inflation rising to 3.1%.
The Bank of England's forecasts for inflation to fall have yet again been shown to be an abysmal failure when it comes to inflation forecasting and targeting where the mantra of UK inflation being at 2% in 2 years time only having been achieved approx 4% of the time, i.e. there is a 96% probability that inflation in 2 years time will NOT be at 2%.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Rebalanced UK Economy and Economic Growth To Fix Britain's Finances / Economics / UK Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Long time readers know that I am a huge fan of Martin Wolf, economist and columnist for the Financial Times. His writing is the reason to get the Pink Lady (as the Financial Times is known) as far as I am concerned.
This week's Outside the Box has two columns back to back from last week from Wolf, talking about the problems in Britain which look like the same problem all over the developed world. Wolf argues (rather cogently) that the answer is to increase exports and for a further weakening of the pound. Quoting:
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
America’s Economic Recovery Is a Rotten Sham / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Justice_Litle
More evidence has arisen that the "strategic default" consumer spending thesis is correct - and that the economic recovery on the whole is based on a rotten sham.
The economic "recovery" we are now witnessing is based on theft, greed and deceit. It's a giant rip-off, a rotten sham. In this sleazy imitation of a free market economy, liars, cheats and deadbeats are the ones getting rewarded.
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Monday, April 19, 2010
California Unemployment Soars, Underemployment at 24% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Global_Research
Dr Housing Bubble writes: California has reached another unfortunate record. The headline unemployment rate pushed up to a record breaking 12.6 percent. This translates to 2.3 million Californians completely out of work. We also have a large number that are working part-time but would like full-time employment. When we look at the California budget and economy we cannot separate out jobs from the condition of the housing market.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Europe Sovereign Debt Crisis, British Pound Sterling Collapse? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
Just as LEAP/E2020 anticipated many months ago, and in contrast to the reports coming out of the media and the « experts » during these past few weeks, Greece really has the Eurozone behind it to give support and credibility (especially concerning good management in the future, the only guarantee of an escape from a damnable cycle of growing public deficits (1)). There will not be, then, any Greek default of payment even if the commotion over the Greek situation really is an indication of a growing awareness that money to finance the huge Western public debt is becoming increasingly difficult to find: a situation now « untenable » as a recent report of the Bank of International Settlements underlined.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Economic Booms and Busts, the Punditry's Terrible Grasp of Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gerard_Jackson
What makes manufacturing an important part of the boom-bust phenomenon is the crucial role that time plays in production. Unfortunately, not only is this fact ignored by our economic commentariat they also adamantly refuse to even recognise its existence, just as they refuse to recognise that there exists a capital structure. (What makes this attitude peculiar is that some of these people claim to have studied von Hayek. The content of their articles strongly suggests otherwise.)
Sunday, April 18, 2010
China and the Emerging Markets Investing Mega-Trend / Economics / China Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The following is an excerpt form the Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Page 54-57 (FREE Download) on investing in the emerging markets mega-trend. The ebook includes additional analysis of other emerging markets including, Brazil, India and Russia.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
U.S. Economy and Interest Rate Forecasts Update / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
It has been a while since we last wrote an economic and interest rate update - February 22, to be exact. There are two reasons for the absence of a March update - heavy travel schedule and not much new to say on the subject. In the broad scheme of things, the only significant change to the forecast is with respect to inflation. Back in February, we were expecting the CPI to increase by 2.5% in 2010 on a Q4/Q4 basis. Now we are forecasting an increase of only 1.7%.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
How Greece Debt Crisis Can Impact YOU! / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bryan_Rich
The economic problems in Greece have made front page news for the better part of the past three months. And I’ve written several columns here in Money and Markets on the ongoing drama and its influence on the global currency markets.
But with all of this incessant talk about Greece, what does it have to do with you?
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Thursday, April 15, 2010
The Economic Recovery Is Not Real Even Though Ben Bernanke is ‘Confident’ / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mac_Slavo
Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Ben The-Sub-Prime-Crisis-Is-Contained Bernanke says that he has confidence in the recovery:
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Economic Long Kondratieff Wave Master Interview Part 2 / Economics / Cycles Analysis
By: Clif_Droke
David Knox Barker is one of the leading authorities on the economic long wave, otherwise known as the Kondratieff Wave (a.k.a. “K Wave”). Barker has had an impressive career both as a financial market writer and long wave analyst, as well as being an entrepreneur in the field of emerging nanotechnology. Back in the late 1980s and ‘90s, Barker was known for his insightful and accurate views on the U.S. economy and financial markets via his “K Wave Report” newsletter.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
U.S. Faces Second Lost Depression, Why This Recession Is Different and What To Do About It / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Business Insider has a very interesting presentation by Richard Koo on The Real Reason Why This Recession Is Completely Different. Here are a few slides.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
U.S. Economy Drifting Towards Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Bob_Chapman
Those of you 60 years old and older will spend the next 25 years struggling to survive one of the worst depressions in history or doing whatever you can to support your children and grandchildren.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Political Earthquake Coming, Where is the Economic Recovery? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Gary_North
"Mirror, mirror on the wall. Who's to say the economy has stopped its fall?"
"The NBER, dummy!"
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Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Greece Emergency Debt Bailout Signals New Stage in Global Economic Crisis / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
Stefan Steinberg writes: The economic crisis precipitated by the crash of Lehman Brothers in 2008 is entering a new stage, as European states hastily organise their first-ever bailout of a member of the European Union. The frantic efforts at the weekend to cobble together a European rescue package for Greece in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund came after intense pressure from rating agencies and intensified speculation by traders betting that the Greek government would default on its debt obligations.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Uncle Sam, Global Trade Sucker? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
Of all the blurbs I got for my book Free Trade Doesn’t Work: What Should Replace It and Why, my favorite is one I got from Robert B. Cassidy, a distinguished former trade diplomat whose career included being Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for China, Asia and the Pacific. His contribution was short, but it made a point, coming from a man who had actually sat at the table where many of America’s key trade agreements were negotiated, that our government would do well to grasp. He wrote,