Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Don't Doubt the Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Neeraj_Chaudhary
A few weeks ago Nouriel Roubini, widely regarded as one of the more pessimistic figures on Wall Street, made headlines by raising his forecasted likelihood of a "double dip recession" to a terrifying 40%. The vast majority of "mainstream" economists (although I would argue Roubini himself is part of that pack) described these predictions as far too gloomy.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Meet the New Goldilocks Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Andy_Sutton
Back in the glory days of 2008, the mainstream press, political pundits, and various government officials talked about the idea of the Goldilocks economy. Not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Of course the analogy ended when the bears chased Goldilocks out of the cottage. While the same outlets aren’t trotting out the fairy tale this time around, it is clear that the US has hit phase two of the Goldilocks economy and it is my guess that most folks will like this one even less than the first.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Filtering Through the Economic Noise, America's Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Stathis
Early last month, the Commerce Department released the latest GDP data. For Q2 of 2010 the GDP growth came in at 2.4%, missing the consensus estimate of 2.5%.
The Commerce Department also released its latest revisions to 2007-2009 GDP data. As I had predicted, the economy shrank more than the previous estimate of 2.6% versus the 2.4% data recorded last year. That made it the largest drop in GDP since 1946.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
Death of Luxury Consumer Brands Postponed Indefinitely / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Pravda
Luxury has survived the crisis, experts say. The death of luxury brands market is postponed indefinitely, and the survivors recovered faster than the more modest brands. Over seven months, the growth in retail turnover, according to Rosstat, was up 4%, and the Russian luxury market can be expected to grow by 5-10% already this year.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
More Stimulus and Unlimited Money Printing Burning the Economic Toast / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Richard_Daughty
Even though I have been drinking so that my speech is slurred after testing some crazy idea that I could drink away my utter horror at the death and dying of the US dollar and economy, history is, on the other hand, being made crystal clear that when a country is so idiotic as to ignore its own Constitutional requirement that money be only made of silver and gold (so as to prevent its over-issuance and thus prevent inflation, The Worst Of All Evils (TWOAE)), and then to compound that stupidity and perfidy by unbelievable over-production of the ridiculously-preferred fiat currency by the foul Federal Reserve mindlessly printing too, too much of it, for too, too long, distorting the economy into an ugly, cancerous, government-centric abomination, that country and its currency are soon toast, which is an unfortunate metaphor because I like toast.
Thursday, September 09, 2010
Economic Stimulus? Yet Again? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Robert_Murphy
This week the Obama administration lays out its plans to further "stimulate" the economy. In particular, the president unveiled his proposals for $50 billion more in infrastructure spending, and a $100 billion extension to a tax credit on research and development.
Unfortunately these ideas range from misguided to downright harmful. If the federal government really wants to promote economic recovery, it should cut spending and taxes in general, and basically get out of the way.
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Thursday, September 09, 2010
Obama's Economic Team has failed, America's Economy Has A Structural Problem / Economics / US Debt
By: Gordon_T_Long
Obama's Economic Team has failed him!
It’s a STRUCTURAL problem not a CYCLICAL problem!
It’s a DEMAND problem not a SUPPLY problem!
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Thursday, September 09, 2010
Federal Debt Crisis Solution, Time for Bernanke to Drop Money on to Main Street / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Ellen_Brown
The Fed is proposing another round of “quantitative easing,” although the first round failed to reverse deflation. It failed because the money went into the coffers of banks, which failed to lend it on. To reverse deflation, the money needs to be funneled directly to state and local economies. The Fed may not be authorized to “monetize” state bonds, but it COULD buy bonds issued by state-owned banks.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
The Government War on Small Business / Economics / Government Intervention
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
The government DOES NOT "create" productive, value added, sustainable "jobs", Small Business Does!
To help set the stage, let's look at some important stats from the Small Business Administration (SBA). Small businesses:
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Currency and Banking Reform in 19th-Century Britain / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Matt_McCaffrey
As banks — central and otherwise — falter and fail across the globe, it is increasingly obvious that the problems of monetary policy that we face run deeper than merely finding the correct adjustment to a Taylor rule. It is trite but nevertheless true to say that great monetary reforms are necessary. The purpose of this article is not to argue for particular policies, but to examine a particularly important historical example of how (and how not) to go about monetary policy and reform.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
The Ultimate Source of Profit and Loss on the Market / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
The changes in the data whose reiterated emergence prevents the economic system from turning into an evenly rotating economy and produces again and again entrepreneurial profit and loss are favorable to some members of society and unfavorable to others. Hence, people concluded, the gain of one man is the damage of another; no man profits but by the loss of others.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Singapore and Thailand, Two Asian Economies Flying Under Investor Radar / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes:
You know about China, India, and maybe even Korea, but there are two other Asian economies making waves in the South China Sea.
I'm talking about Singapore and Thailand.
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Federal Reserve's Digital Bullets Kept in Reserve to Fight Inflation Hedging Mentality / Economics / Central Banks
By: Gary_North
Every army keeps troops in reserve. If there is a breakthrough in the defensive line by the enemy army, the commanding general needs reserves to send into the breach to keep his army from being routed. It is too risky not to have reserves.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Real Bank Credit and Real GDP Growth, Michael Boskin’s Summer of Economic History Amnesia / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Monetarism, In a September 2 op-ed commentary in the WSJ ("Summer of Economic Discontent"), Michael Boskin, former chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers under Bush 41, compares the anemic current economic recovery with vibrant ones, such as the recovery that commenced in the first quarter of 1983, when Martin Feldstein was chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers. Mr. Boskin intimates that the reason the current economic recovery is so feeble is because of economic policies being pursued by the current presidential administration.
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
Real Economic GDP Growth, U.S. vs Germany / Economics / Global Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
As Chart 1 shows, German real GDP growth, at an annualized rate of 9.0%, blew away U.S. growth at a paltry 1.6%. A number of factors might account for the stronger performance of the German in economy in the second quarter vs. the U.S. But one I want to concentrate on is the change in credit provided by private-sector financial institutions. These data are presented in Chart 2. I do not have oranges-to-oranges data to compare, but I do have oranges to tangerines data.
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Tuesday, September 07, 2010
China’s Developing Economic System / Economics / China Economy
By: Frank_Holmes
“Global” is part of our company name, and we take it seriously. This week two members of our investment team are in Hong Kong for a CLSA conference, another is just back from China, a fourth will be there later this month and I’ve spent a fair bit of time in Colombia in recent months.
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
What Bernanke Doesn’t Understand About Debt Deflation and the Economy, Back to the Future / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
This week's Outside the Box is an incendiary blog written by Steve Keen on debt deflation and GDP growth. I am not certain as to his math (is he double counting debt and consumer spending?) but he does illustrate very well the problem of a deleveraging recession, which I have been writing about for a long time. This is just a different type of recession we are in. So rather than fret over the absolute certainty of the math, read this for an understanding of the nature of the problems we face. He has the direction right, I think, which is the important part for us to grasp.
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
Gold, and the Future Way Through Economic Collapse / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
When younger, Alan Greenspan wondered if he could have prevented the Great Depression had he been Fed chairman during the 1920s. Fate, however, was to give Greenspan a far different future than he expected; instead of preventing a depression, he would cause one.
After the scare of the 1970s, central bankers, i.e. Greenspan et. al., focused on containing inflation and came to believe they had successfully done so, not realizing that monetary expansion had instead morphed into asset bubbles, e.g. stocks, property, and bonds, not general price inflation as in the past.
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Monday, September 06, 2010
The Fed and the Ratchet Effect on Government Size / Economics / Government Spending
By: Robert_Murphy
One of economic historian Bob Higgs's outstanding contributions is the "ratchet effect." During a crisis, the size and scope of government grow tremendously. After the crisis subsides, government shrinks, but not to the precrisis level. In consequence, leviathan expands over the decades, leaping from one crisis to the next.
Sunday, September 05, 2010
Non Farm Payrolls: The Devil Is In the Adjustments / Economics / Employment
By: Jesse
When the US government announced a 'better than expected' headline growth number in its non farm payrolls report for August, a loss of 'only' 54,000 jobs versus a forecasted loss of 120,000 jobs, people had to wonder, 'How do they do it? We do not see any of this growth and recovery in our day to day activity.'
Here's one way that those reporting the numbers can 'tinker' with them to produce the desired results.