Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Deflation Reality or Urban Myth? / Economics / Deflation
By: Puru_Saxena
BIG PICTURE: The inflation/deflation debate is now the ‘topic du jour’ and although we have discussed this issue in the past, we want to throw more light on this very important subject.
Today, many prominent economists (Nouriel Roubini, David Rosenberg and Paul Krugman) and fund managers (Bill Gross and Jeremy Grantham) are forecasting deflation and according to these folks, a deflationary contraction is now ‘baked in the cake’. In fact, these deflationists are extremely worried about the ongoing private-sector debt-deleveraging in the developed world and they are also concerned about the lack of aggregate demand in the industrialised nations. Bearing in mind these two factors, these prominent people believe that deflation is now almost guaranteed and inflation is out of the question.
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Friday, September 24, 2010
U.S. Debt the Illegitimate Child Of The Mother Of All Bubbles / Economics / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
There is no doubt the home price bubble inflated by Easy Al Greenspan between 2000 and 2006 was the Mother of All Bubbles. Robert Shiller clearly showed that home prices were two standard deviations above expectations. Despite the unequivocal facts that Dr. Shiller put forth, millions of delusional unsuspecting dupes bought houses at the top of the market. These were the greater fools. They actually believed the drivel being spewed forth by the knuckleheaded anchors on CNBC. They actually believed the propaganda being preached by David Lereah from the National Association of Realtors (Always the Best Time to Buy) about home prices never dropping. They actually believed Bennie Bernanke when he said:
Thursday, September 23, 2010
The Real Economic Cost of Government Is Spending, So What Do You Want to Cut? / Economics / Government Spending
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
One of the biggest issues in this mid-term election is the desire to pare the rate of growth in federal government spending. Economically speaking, this is spot on because the real economic cost of government is how much it spends. Bear in mind, the federal government always gets the funds it needs to pay for its expenditures - through taxation, borrowing and/or "printing." The more the federal government spends, the more productive resources it directs, leaving fewer resources at the disposal of the private sector.
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Thursday, September 23, 2010
Deflation Trend That's Become Too Obvious To Ignore / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
As the biggest credit bubble in history continues to shrink, consumer prices have stayed flat over the past several months, meaning there is no sign of inflation to come, despite growing commitments from the U.S. government.
So what's keeping inflation at bay, given all the stimulus money promised? The answer: Deflation -- an overwhelming urge for consumers to liquidate their assets for cash. And this new economic phase is finally becoming too obvious to ignore, as explained in recent commentary from the world's largest technical analysis firm.
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Wednesday, September 22, 2010
New 90-page Deflation eBook from Robert Prechter Available Now / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
As the biggest credit bubble in history continues to shrink, consumer prices have stayed flat over the past several months, meaning there is ZERO sign of inflation in the economy -- despite growing commitments from the U.S. government.
So what's keeping inflation at bay, given all the stimulus money promised? The answer: Deflation -- an overwhelming urge for consumers to liquidate their assets for cash.
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Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Why Government Reports Aren’t the Only Indicators of Economic Health / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Jared_Levy
When I am not traveling to New York City, Philly or Chicago, I work mostly from my home office. I tend to look out the window while I write and trade. I get a nice view of the Dallas skyline and trees, but I also have a fairly clear view of the neighborhood dry cleaner, whom I have been going to for many years. Over the past year, I have noticed the parking lot fairly empty and the drive-through window not as busy as it used to be.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Hooray, the U.S. Recession Is Over! / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Robert_Murphy
Some days, it's embarrassing to be a professional economist. On Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared that our recession had ended — 15 months ago. Yes, that's right, just as more and more analysts are worried about the economy imploding again, the NBER announces that the recession ended back in June 2009. The whole episode underscores the crudity of mainstream economics.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Dollar Devaluation, Debt Default, Austerity, Depression and Growing Inflation / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
As quantitative easing again gets underway the failure of QE1 becomes more obvious. The crisis worsens and the illusion of any recovery is light years away. Over the past three years almost $13 trillion that we know about has been thrown down a rat hole to bail out banking, Wall Street, insurance and selected elitist entities. The dollar figure is probably much higher. We will never know, because the privately owned Federal Reserve makes its own rules. Everything they do is a state secret. The five successful quarters were only a mirage. The funds have been vaporized among lending and financial institutions worldwide.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Is a Reduction in Unemployment the Key to US Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Frank_Shostak
Most experts are almost unanimous that the key to economic recovery is a reduction in the unemployment rate, which stood at 9.6% in August. The number of unemployed stood in August at almost 15 million. Also, the underemployment rate climbed to 16.7% in August from 16.5% in the month before.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Inflationary Understatement / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
The Market Oracle newsletter jumps into the inflation-deflation debate, and says, "Debt deleveraging deflation completely ignores the fact that we are NOT living in the 1930's, but in a globalised world economy that is seeing the convergence of real GDPs where the developing world is eating up the [world's] resources at a faster pace then the west is cutting back on consumption."
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
The End of the Great Recession is Official / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research indicated today that the recession which commenced in December 2007 ended in June 2009. The 18-month recession is the longest on record in the post-war period. The 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions lasted 16 months. The announcement is an official ritual; for all practical purposes, it has been widely known the recession ended in the middle of 2009. The important difference to note is that the pace of economic growth in the current recovery is significantly slower compared with the recoveries following the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
The Economics of Immigration and Employment, Do Immigrants Steal Jobs? / Economics / Immigration
By: FPIF
Facts or no facts, many people simply do not want to believe that undocumented immigrants coming to this country don’t steal jobs and undermine the American economy. When economic studies come along that challenge their preconceptions, they don’t take kindly to the troublesome conclusions.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
How Governments Will Default on their Sovereign Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
As I am traveling in Europe for a few more days, it seems appropriate to review the very fascinating work of Arnuad Mares of Morgan Stanley in London. He poses the very provocative question: "Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, but How?" and comes up with some very interesting statistics. He suggests that simply looking at debt to GDP misses the point and offers four other ways we should also evaluate sovereign debt risk. This is a very worthy contribution to Outside the Box.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Debt Deleveraging Deflation Deception / Economics / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
There is wide agreement among economists and the financial media that our lackluster economic performance stems from continued "deleveraging" among consumers and businesses. Although it is certainly true that after decades of overly speculative borrowing, individuals and corporations are paying down debt, rebuilding their savings, and generally repairing their respective balance sheets. But these activities cannot be faulted for our economic malaise.
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Monday, September 20, 2010
The Empirical Case against Government Stimulus / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Economists in the Misesian tradition stress the primacy of theory in the social sciences. When trying to figure out the Great Depression, for example, we can't approach the topic with a blank slate and let the facts "speak for themselves." Mises argued that in order for us to even know which facts to consider as relevant, we need to have an antecedent body of deductive insights.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Urgent Steps to Save U.S. Economy From Debt Collapse / Economics / US Debt
By: Larry_Edelson
In a few moments, I am going to release to you — and the general public — the broad brushstrokes of my …
10-Step Proposal To Save America From The Fatal Blows Of A Debt Collapse … And Give Control Of The U.S. Economy Back To The American People.
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Monday, September 20, 2010
Urgent Lessons from Japan on Economy, Debt and Stocks Bear Market / Economics / US Debt
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Imagine a world where the economy never emerges from recession.
Imagine a time and place in which economists talk first of a double-dip recession, then about a triple-dip recession … and ultimately admit the dire reality of a long, multi-decade depression.
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Monday, September 20, 2010
The Myth of Debt Deleveraging Deflation / Economics / US Debt
By: Brady_Willett
Background: The reason the ‘net worth’ data is an important consideration today is self evident: unable to explain why the outlook for consumer spending is positive given that debt service costs are hitting record highs, savings are near record lows, and wages are failing to keep pace with inflation, optimistic economists point to the consumer’s balance sheet and calmly conclude that everything will be all right. And although these analysts have indeed been right for a long time (16-years and counting), there is ample evidence brewing to suggest that the US consumer is about to fall down.. -
August 21, 2007 - Forget Peak Oil, Peak Net Worth is the Real Danger
Monday, September 20, 2010
U.S. Consumers and Business are Not Debt Deleveraging, They are Going for Broke / Economics / US Debt
By: Washingtons_Blog
Everyone knows that the American consumer is deleveraging ... living more frugally, and paying down debt.
Right?
Well, actually, as CNBC's Diana Olick pointed out in April, many consumers are stopping their mortgage payments, and then blowing the money they would usually pay towards their mortgage on luxuries:
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Sunday, September 19, 2010
United States Economy Caught in the Jaws of Death, Housing Market Mantra / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Gordon_T_Long
The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.
It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US. This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.
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