Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The Economic Dark Darkside of the M&A Boom / Economics / Mergers & Acquisitions
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
With its $39 billion hostile bid for Canada's Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT), mining giant BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE ADR: BHP) capped an active August in the mergers-and-acquisitions market.
With the moribund growth prospects of the U.S. economy, there would seem to be no great urgency for companies to go on an M&A spree, yet the total value of announced buyout deals for August alone has topped $175 billion.
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Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The Backward Slide into Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Whitney
Ongoing deleveraging has slowed personal consumption and trimmed 2nd quarter GDP to a revised 1.6%. The economy is sliding backwards into recession. As Obama's fiscal stimulus dries up and the private sector slashes spending, demand will continue to collapse pushing more businesses and households into default. The economy is now caught in a reinforcing downward cycle in which dwindling fiscal and monetary support is shrinking the money supply triggering a slowdown in activity in the broader economy.
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Monday, August 30, 2010
All Major Banks Oppose Honest Reporting To Hide Huge Loan Losses / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Reader "Henry" has a question on the loan loss provision chart I posted in Former Fed Vice Chairman vs. Mish: Is the Fed Out of Ammo?
Monday, August 30, 2010
Partial Equilibrium Economic Analysis, Part I / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andy_Sutton
One of the many tools available to economists and analysts in determining the suitability of fiscal or economic policy is partial equilibrium (PE) analysis. However, many scoff at the notion of using partial equilibrium simply because many of its assumptions are deemed to be too unrealistic. However, for taking a look at the potential benefits (or costs) of a policy such as a tax on a single good, PE is a very valid construct. One of the biggest hot button topics these days in nearly every state is how to raise revenue (rather than cutting costs). One of the traditional cash cows for states is in the form of gasoline taxes. The same goes for the Federal government in this regard. However, as we all know, simply arbitrarily and capriciously taxing a product is not necessarily efficient. In fact it usually isn’t.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Strong GDP Growth For German Economy, Weak for U.S. Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: EconGrapher
This week we take a look at GDP stats from the robust German economy, and the less than robust US economy. Then we look closer at the US situation; reviewing the existing home sales data, and consumer sentiment data. We then wrap up with a review of the July trade figures from Japan.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
U.S. Grim Economic Realities, GDP Report Confirms Worst Economic Crisis since the Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Barry_Grey
The Commerce Department on Friday sharply cut its estimate of US economic growth in the second quarter of 2010. The department revised downward its initial estimate, issued July 30, of a 2.4 percent increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) to the even more anemic figure of 1.6 percent.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Rumours of the Death of the U.S. Economy are Premature, Sovereign Debt Exchange For Equity / Economics / US Debt
By: Brian_Bloom
Conventional wisdom states that levels of Public Debt – in particular in the USA – are too high and there are only three possible outcomes:
- Helicopter Ben’s so-called Quantitative Easing leading to hyperinflation in the USA
- Debt default leading to Depression
- A sideways moving economy for 10-15 years accompanied by churning markets as income is used to repay debt. (A side-effect of this approach will be that tax rates will likely rise significantly even as standards of living decline).
Saturday, August 28, 2010
South Africa Wants to Join BRICs Club / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Global_Research
Boris Volkhonsky writes: [I]f and when South Africa joins BRIC (and there is no reason to believe the prospect is unreal), the new grouping (whether it will be called BRICSA or SABRIC) will acquire a really global character representing all major continents.
On Tuesday South African President Jacob Zuma, while on a state visit to China, expressed the desire and willingness of his country to join the informal club of four developing nations, namely Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as BRIC.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Depression Next Down Leg Unfolding, The Financial and Economic Crisis No Spin Zone / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Ty_Andros
As the next leg down in the unfolding depression and global, financial crisis intensifies we all sit on a keg of dynamite known as the developed world's economies and financial systems and wait for some fool in government to light a match. In April I spoke about black swans taking flight, now they are about to land. An explosive event is unfolding as we speak. What you are about to read is the embodiment of the Cloward-Piven strategy -- economic collapse written into law, on purpose, by radical Marxist Socialist progressives inside the Capital of the United States: Washington DC.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Peter Schiff on Academic and Press Economic Forecasters Flying Blind / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Peter_Schiff
Watching economists and media analysts react to breaking economic news is a bit like looking at a flock of pigeons flying over the New York skyline. A true wonder of the urban landscape, the flocks can include hundreds of individuals who show an uncanny ability to stay in tight formation as the group quickly zig-zags between buildings. What may be even more remarkable than their ability to randomly fly while maintaining cohesion is the flock's refusal to stick to any particular direction for very long, and their determination to fly feverishly without actually going anywhere. Sound familiar?
Friday, August 27, 2010
Why We May Already Be In Recession! / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Sy_Harding
First let’s look at the trend.
After an unusual four straight quarters of negative growth in the severe 2008-2009 recession, the recession ended in the September quarter of last year when GDP managed fragile growth of 1.6% for the quarter, and then improved to 5.0% growth in the December quarter.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Two Ways to Tell if the U.S. Economy is Ready to Rebound / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
The U.S. economy has been crippled by the financial crisis. And regardless of what policymakers try to do to spur growth, it will hobble along lamely until two major economic pillars are rectified.
Simply put, there's no chance that stock investors will see a healthy, long-term bull market until credit again begins to flow freely and home prices start rising.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
The Great Debt Deleveraging Lie / Economics / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
You can't open a newspaper or watch a business news network without seeing or hearing that consumers and businesses have been de-leveraging. The storyline as portrayed by the mainstream media is that consumers and corporations have seen the light and are paying off debts and living within their means. Austerity has broken out across the land. Bloomberg peddled this line of bull last week:Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 26, 2010
China Gerts Worlds Largest Traffic Jam, Just a Brief Bottleneck on the Road to Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Besides recently being crowned the world's second-largest economy, China now has the dubious distinction of spawning the world's longest traffic jam. And it's all directly attributable to China's voracious appetite for energy and automobiles.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Spending on durable goods rose slightly in July but only on the back of an unsustainable spike in aircraft orders. The rest of the data ranged from weak to abysmal.
As has been the case recently, economists missed the mark by a mile. Economists expected a 3% rise, what they got was a .3% rise.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Deflation Delusion Continues as Economies Trend Towards High Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Delusional deflationists right from the Bank of England MPC, through to the mainstream press for well over a year have pushed the mantra of ongoing debt deleveraging deflation everywhere, everywhere that is than appears in where it counts i.e. the actual INFLATION indices, where inflation is on the rise right across the world as illustrated in the UK by the persistent failure of the Bank of England to control UK inflation that remains above the banks CPI 3% upper limit. Even Greece that really is in an depression is experiencing inflation at above 3%, whilst the US CPI continues to inflate at a more modest 1.2% as summarised below for key world economies.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Economic Science and Theory: The Special, the Sublime, the Climax / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Pravda
The existence of the universe is something extraordinary!
The countless conjectures (mainly scientific) on the intrinsic characteristics of the universe and also the attempts to understand it have followed the history of mankind. This direction has been the role of Physical Science (prominently, but also chemistry) the "lady" of understanding the laws and forces that comprise the cosmos.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
U.S. Unable to Remain World Stronghold on Consumer Demand / Economics / US Economy
By: Pravda
American consumers are not in a hurry to spend, production remains weak, and conversations about the risk of deflation become more acute. It is likely that the U.S. government will prepare new incentive programs that will inflate national debt. However, the experts believe it will not affect the dollar in a negative way.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Inflation versus Deflation Debate Part2 / Economics / Deflation
By: Fred_Sheehan
Inflation versus deflation discussions are the rule for columnists, economists and BubbleTV. This false distinction is potentially harmful for investors and shoppers who think they must decide between the two, then act. Inflation and deflation act contemporaneously. The relative movement of what is inflating and what is deflating (e.g., common stocks vs. gas, bonds vs. bread) influences, and possibly changes, the way we live.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Bloggers $300 License Tax, Headlines Sound the Alarm about Deeper Economic Problems / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
The following three headlines are alarming symptoms of the economic insanity unfolding before our eyes:
- "Philly requiring bloggers to pay $300 for a business license"
- "LA unveils $578-Million school, costliest in the nation"
- "Record Number Of Americans Using Retirement Funds As Source Of Immediate Cash"