Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
World Economic and Financial System Trending Towards a Serious Breakdown by Spring 2011 / Economics / Financial Crash
By: Global_Research
GEAB writes: As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February in the GEAB No. 42, the second half of 2010 is really characterized by a sudden worsening of the crisis marked by the end of the illusion of recovery maintained by Western leaders (1) and the thousands of billions swallowed up by the banks and the economic « stimulation » plans of no lasting effect. The coming months will reveal a simple, yet especially painful reality: the Western economy, and in particular that of the United States (2), never really came out of recession (3). The startling statistics recorded since summer 2009 have only been the short-lived consequences of a massive injection of liquidity into a system which had essentially become insolvent just like the US consumer (4).
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Asia and the Financial Crisis, Asset Price Bubbles and Capital Controls / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Global_Research
Kavaljit Singh writes: Capital controls are back in fashion. In June 2010, South Korea and Indonesia announced several policy measures to regulate potentially destabilising capital flows, which could pose a threat to their economies and financial systems.
South Korea it announced a series of currency controls in June to protect its economy from external shocks. Indonesia quickly followed suit when its central bank deployed measures to control short-term capital inflows. In October 2009, Brazil announced a 2 per cent tax on foreign purchases of fixed income securities and stocks. Taiwan also restricted overseas investors from buying time deposits.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Trapped in the Basel III Credit Contracting Death Spiral / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Ellen_Brown
The stock market shot up on September 13, after new banking regulations were announced called Basel III. Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief. The megabanks, propped up by generous taxpayer bailouts, would have no trouble meeting the new capital requirements, which were lower than expected and would not be fully implemented until 2019. Only the local commercial banks, the ones already struggling to meet capital requirements, would be seriously challenged by the new rules.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Greenspan's Dark Economic Cloud / Economics / US Debt
By: Gary_North
In an interview at the Council on Foreign Relations (Sept. 15), Greenspan called for higher taxes. This got headlines. But he said a lot more than this.
When a high-level national figure speaks on the record at the CFR, he usually says nothing radical. He is brought there to speak to the members, but he is also speaking to the media. There are rarely any big surprises at one of these meetings.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 19, 2010
UK Government Stealth Debt Default Continues at Minimum Rate of 3% per Year / Economics / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article is part of a series towards an updated UK interest rate trend forecast. The UK government continues to stealth default on its government debt at the minimum rate of 3% per annum, a price that is being paid for by all workers and savers. The population of Britain has been successfully conditioned by successive governments deploying the pseudo science of economics that appears to exist purely to enable governments to psychologically manage the expectations of their populations such as coming to believe that the stealth sovereign debt default trend is good for them.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
The Chances of a Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: John_Mauldin
I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write a letter. But never fear, I leave you in the best of hands. Dr. Gary Shilling graciously agreed to condense his September letter, where he looks at the risk of another recession in the US.
I look forward at the beginning of each month to getting Gary's latest letter. I often print it out and walk away from my desk to spend some quality time reading his thoughts. He is one of my "must-read" analysts. I always learn something quite useful and insightful. I am grateful that he has let me share this with you.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Economics vs. Fakeonomics, Free Trade Skepticism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Ian_Fletcher
We skeptics of free trade are used to being told, “You don’t understand economics.” In fact, one major reason I wrote the book Free Trade Doesn’t Work was simply to expose, once and for all, that there do exist extremely serious and intellectually reputable arguments, within the confines of accepted mainstream economics, which question free trade. And indeed they exist.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 17, 2010
The Long Road to Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: Last week the government released the latest unemployment data. Bloomberg, always ready to roll up the sleeves to help its friends in government (get reelected), was running a headline that “Companies in U.S. Added 67,000 Jobs in August.”
While I haven’t had time to go through the minutiae of the report, I find myself scratching my head at Mr. Market’s rather positive reaction to the report, given the bullet points:
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 17, 2010
Does the U.S. Economy Need Another Economic Stimulus Package? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Frank_Shostak
Despite the massive fiscal stimulus package of nearly $800 billion approved by Congress early last year and trillions of dollars pumped by the Fed, the rally in various key economic data seems to be coming to an end.
After falling to 32.5 in December 2008, the ISM manufacturing index peaked at 60.4 in April of this this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 17, 2010
H.G. Wells's Socialist Critique of Capitalism / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Paul A. Cantor writes: "One might wonder whether these intellectuals are not sometimes inspired by resentment that they, knowing better what ought to be done, are paid so much less than those whose instructions and activities in fact guide practical affairs. Such literary interpreters of scientific and technological advance, of which H.G. Wells, because of the unusually high quality of his work, would be an excellent example, have done far more to spread the socialist ideal of a centrally directed economy in which each is assigned his due share than have the real scientists from whom they have cadged many of their notions." —Friedrich Hayek, The Fatal Conceit
Friday, September 17, 2010
Brazil's Debt Crisis, if it Does Not Defend Itself Against Financialization / Economics / Brazil
By: Michael_Hudson
The post-1945 mode of global integration has outlived its early promise. It has become exploitative rather than supportive of capital investment, public infrastructure and living standards.
In the sphere of trade, countries need to rebuild their self-sufficiency in food grains and other basic needs. In the financial sphere, the ability of banks to create credit (loans) at almost no cost on their computer keyboards has led North America and Europe to become debt ridden, and now seeks to move into Brazil and other BRIC countries by financing buyouts or lending against their natural resources, real estate, basic infrastructure and industry. Speculators, arbitrageurs and financial institutions using “free money” see these economies as easy pickings. But by obliging countries to defend themselves financially, their predatory credit creation is ending the era of free capital movements.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 17, 2010
Japan’s Economic Problem Is Bigger Than Yen / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
After much speculation and many flying rumors, Japanese government stepped in on Wednesday, Sep. 15 and intervened--sell yen, buy dollar--for the first time in six years. The yen had risen about 10% against the dollar this year, and just reached yet another new 15-year high against the US dollar, an eight-year high against the euro, on Tuesday, Sep. 14.
Friday, September 17, 2010
John’s Economic Worldview / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Doug_Wakefield
Today, we are faced with a period in world history of unprecedented change. Carl Jung, who worked with Sigmund Freud and is known today for his work in humanistic-existential psychology, believed that man perceived change as “death”. Dr. Janice Dorn, who has coached hundreds of professional traders since the mid ‘90s, stated to me in an interview for my December 2006 newsletter entitled Mindgames, that we avoid change because “it is incredibly difficult to shift paradigms, which of course is the way in which we perceived the world.”
Thursday, September 16, 2010
The European Banking Crisis Next Phase, Greek Debt Default Inevitable / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_North
The European banks are still in deep trouble. They are being protected only by the ability of the politicians of the PIIGS to persuade the public that they will be able to maintain interest payments in the near term. Investors care nothing about long-term prospects. They assume that they can sell bad bonds to the next group of naïve investors. Each group assumes that those who follow will be suckers. They regard themselves as sophisticated investors who know what will happen and who will be able to unload the bonds on really stupid investors.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
When Japan's Debt Ridden Economy Collapses / Economics / Japan Economy
By: James_Quinn
Only a partisan two-bit hack economist/liberal rag columnist from an Ivy League University with a Nobel Prize could look at the following two charts and conclude that the Japanese Government failed to revive the Japanese economy over the last twenty years because they spent far too little on fiscal stimulus. Japanese government debt as a percentage of GDP was 52% in 1989, prior to their real estate and stock market crash. Today it stands at 200% of GDP. Current budget projections show the debt reaching 250% of GDP by 2015.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
U.S. Economy Debt Crisis, the Smoking Ruin Solution / Economics / US Debt
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: Just last week, it was reported that the turnout for the Democratic primary was the lowest in 80 years. While the Republicans are clearly energized by their concerns about the direction the Democrats are taking the country in, the Democrats themselves seem to have decided to forgo the voting process, perhaps in favor of a refreshing nap.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Economic Thought in Ancient Greece / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Jesús Huerta de Soto writes: The intellectual odyssey that laid the foundations for Western civilization began in classical Greece. Unfortunately, Greek thinkers failed in their attempt to grasp the essential principles of the spontaneous market order and of the dynamic process of social cooperation which surrounded them. While we must acknowledge the important Greek contributions in the areas of epistemology, logic, ethics, and even the conception of natural law, the Greeks failed miserably to see the need for the development of a discipline, economic science, devoted to the study of the spontaneous processes of social cooperation that comprise the market.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Investors Keep Eye on Thailand Asian Economic Tiger / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Money_Morning
Jon D. Markman writes: Last week we talked about Singapore and Thailand - two Asian economies that are quietly taking off. Today I want to add to those thoughts with a few more key points that opportunistic U.S. investors should know about Thailand, in particular.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
UK Economy Hovers On The Edge As Scholars Debate War And Terrorism / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Danny_Schechter
LONDON: The British Capital pretty much looked like it did the last time I was here except for all the closed stores and businesses I passed on the way to the War and Media Conference that brought me here.
I am not sure what it will look like the next time I come because the new Tory government is preparing to slash 40% of public funding in an austerity move which is certain to destroy thousands of jobs and inflict pain on the poor and middle class.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
UK CPI Inflation Stuck at 3.1% Against Bank of England's Forecast for 1.6% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK inflation for August 2010 was unchanged at CPI 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 9 months of mantra from the Governor, Mervyn King that high inflation was ALWAYS just temporary and imminently expected to fall to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI (real inflation) measure dipped marginally from 4.8% to 4.7% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are experiencing especially as taxes rise and state services are cut. The academic economists that populate the mainstream press were again caught off guard as expectations were for CPI to fall to 2.8%, just as they have been caught off guard by high inflation EVERY month for the whole of 2010.