Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Commodity Super Cycle Ripples into China / Economics / China Economy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Exactly two-years ago, - the world’s commodity and stock markets were caught in the grips of a death spiral. As revelations of the extreme magnitude of the sub-prime mortgage debt crisis began to surface, banks began cutting off funding to companies and other borrowers, despite efforts by governments and central banks to unlock jammed credit markets. Global cross-border lending by banks shrank $5-trillion in the last nine months of 2008, the sharpest fall ever recorded.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
How Much Faith Should We Put in Keynesian Economic Models? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Jim Manzi is a private-sector expert in statistical analysis. He is my favorite commentator on the economics of climate change, because he dove into the IPCC reports and found that the proposed legislative "cures" (cap-and-trade or carbon-tax laws) are arguably worse than the disease, even according to the "consensus" numbers.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Euro-zone Debt Crisis, European Monetary Union to Muddle Through or Fall Apart? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Ingo Schmidt writes: Springtime in Athens, Dublin in the fall. Lisbon next time or Madrid? The sparks of public deficits, foreign debt, and soaring risk premiums have lit a fire of fiscal and debt crises in the European periphery that have even inflamed the corridors of Euro-power – the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission and the capitals of the European Union (EU) heavyweights of France and Germany. In May, when Greece accepted a €45-billion bailout package, with the usual neoliberal adjustment strings attached, only a few folks on the fringes of the political spectrum speculated about the break-up of the Euro-zone. The recent negotiations between the Irish government and the EU, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the governments of Britain, Denmark and Sweden, were concluded with an additional €85-billion worth of credits and guarantees being anted up. But they also have started to raise serious concerns about the future of the Euro.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Brazil From Debt Pariah to Cash King, The New Miracle Economy / Economics / Brazil
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Brazil’s economy is booming, and I can assure you, it’s not a bubble.
I am also certain that the vast riches being made are not a flash in the pan.
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Monday, December 20, 2010
The Zombie Banks Feast, Whilst the Economy Starves / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Gary_North
Japan, Inc. is run by the big banks for the big corporations. America, Inc. is run by the big corporations for the big banks. Take your pick.
Japan has not had hyperinflation. Neither have we. But will we? In the words of Nashville part-time singer and full-time financial advisor, Merle Hazard, "Will it be Zimbabwe or Japan?" If you have not seen Merle's video, you really should. It's here.
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Saturday, December 18, 2010
Europe Kicking the Debt Crisis Can Down the Road / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Different Cans for Different Folks
More Debt is NOT the Solution to Too Much Debt
Et Tu, Belgium?
How often did we as young kids go down the street kicking a can? "Kicking the can down the road" is a universally understood metaphor that has come to mean not dealing with the problem but putting a band-aid on it, knowing we will have to deal with something maybe even worse in the future.
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Saturday, December 18, 2010
America’s Second Great Depression 2010 Year-end Update (Part 1) / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Stathis
“Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.” [1]
That quote was taken from a speech made by then Board of Governors member Ben Bernanke in 2002 to the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately, Bernanke’s pledge has been broken.
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Saturday, December 18, 2010
The Tax Deal and Inflationary Macroeconomic Stimulus / Economics / Taxes
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
It is becoming increasingly difficult to divide the politics from the policy, but the new tax deal being negotiated between Congress and the White House will set the stage for serious economic stimulus (and inflation) in 2011 and beyond.
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Saturday, December 18, 2010
Why Government is More Afraid of Debt than Economic Depression / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Videos
Michael Hudson: Deficit Hawks Want a One Two Punch Against the Economy.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Index of Leading Economic Indicators Underscores Continuing Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) posted a solid 1.1% gain in November after a revised 0.4% increase in October. The LEI has risen at an annual rate of 8.7% in the three months ended November compared with a 0.4% gain during the previous three months (ending August). The accelerated increase of the LEI implies continued growth of the economy and at a stronger pace compared with the trend seen in recent months. The possibility of a double-dip discussed frequently in the summer months is almost irrelevant now.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Western Public Debt Bubble Explodes Sending Financial Shock Waves Across Europe and America / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
GEAB writes: The second half of 2011 will mark the point in time when all the world’s financial operators will finally understand that the West will not repay in full a significant portion of the loans advanced over the last two decades. For LEAP/E2020 it is, in effect, around October 2011, due to the plunge of a large number of US cities and states into an inextricable financial situation following the end of the federal funding of their deficits, whilst Europe will face a very significant debt refinancing requirement
Friday, December 17, 2010
U.S. Housing Market Starts Show Small Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Construction of new homes increased 3.9% to an annual rate of 555,000 in November, following an 11.1% drop in the previous month. Starts of single-family units advanced 6.9% in November to an annual rate of 465,000. The November level of single-family starts is marginally above the three-month moving average of single-family starts (see Chart 1), which suggests that stronger gains are necessary before we declare that home construction activity is out of the woods. Multi-family starts fell 9.1% in November, marking the third consecutive monthly decline.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
The Economic Reality of the Obama Republican Tax Deal / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Economists and other pundits have been discussing the deal struck between Obama and the Republicans. It is an interesting topic because it showcases the enormous gulf between what makes good political sense and what policies are economically beneficial.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
U.S. Inflation Consumer Price Index Contains No Surprises / Economics / Inflation
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in November following a 0.2% gain in the prior month. The CPI has risen 1.1% from a year ago compared with a 1.8% gain in the 12-month period ended November 2009. Energy prices increased only 0.2% in November vs. a 2.6% gain in October. The price index for natural gas (-5.7%) fell but gasoline prices (+0.7%) advanced for the fifth straight month, with November recording the smallest of these five monthly gains. The food price index moved up 0.2% in November after a 0.1% increase in the prior month. The important message is that the CPI continues to show a distinct decelerating trend (see Chart 1).
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Britain's Jobless Economic Recovery as UK Unemployment Hits 2.5 million / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest UK unemployment data caught the mainstream press and academic economists by surprise by showing a rise of 35k to 2.5 million (7.9%) for the three months to September 2010. UK unemployment is particularly hitting young people hard which risks creating a lost generation of increasingly angry youth (19.8% unemployed), as well as 1/2 million jobs expected to be cut from the public sector over the next 2 years, many of whom will find it difficult to adapt to the private sector jobs market.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
How to Escape the Global Debt Trap and Make a Fortune / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Claus_Vogt
We have just released our new book, The Global Debt Trap: How to Escape the Danger and Build a Fortune, which we think is timed perfectly for the events now swirling around us.
And as our way of thanking you for your interest as reader, we are giving you the first sections right here in this issue …
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Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Economic Crisis in America: Mounting Household Debts, Threat to Pension Funds and Social Security / Economics / US Debt
By: Bob_Chapman
The experts’ keep telling us how great shopping is this Christmas Season when only 17% of shoppers are using credit cards. That is a drop of 50% from last year, and the lowest usage in 27 years. We guess buyers have unloaded the cookie jar and pulled their savings from under the mattress. The consumer sentiment index has risen 2.6, but we will wait to see if attitudes turn into sales. Home buying intentions continue to fall as interest rates hit 4.66% for a 30-year fixed mortgage this past week, putting a further damper on future sales.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Fed Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Axel_Merk
In August, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke stated inflation was too low; in October, the Fed's Minutes lamented that the market appeared not to take Bernanke's August statements seriously enough. In our assessment, today's Fed statement of the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC), with an almost verbatim repetition of the previous FOMC statement, screams: "markets: trust us, we mean what we say."
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Chanos Expects to Cash in on His China Shorts During 2011 / Economics / China Economy
By: David_Haas
Here’s a recent interview with Jim Chanos on the critical state of the Chinese economic picture. Chanos typically makes his money short-selling overpriced markets and he’s “all over” China like stink on a pig; has been for well over a year.
Chanos believes 2011 will be his big year to begin cashing in on his China shorts. Here’s his reasoning:
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Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Bank of England's Inflation Targeting Mandate is Bankrupt as CPI Rises to 3.3% / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
UK Inflation for November rose once more to hit 3.3% form 3.2% which makes a mockery of the Bank of England's primary objective of targeting CPI inflation at 2%, instead of which UK inflation has been above 3% for virtually the whole of 2010. Not far behind the bankrupt Bank of England's temporary high inflation mantra is the mainstream press and major institutions and so called think tanks that have lapped up the Bank of England's Deflation threat propaganda and sleep walked their readers into high inflation disaster as inflation protection props have been pulled away one by one (NS&I RPI Indexed Certificates).