Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 07, 2011
China a Trade Growth Machine Investors Ignore at their Own Risk / Economics / China Economy
By: Justin_John
There are very few macro points in the world that needs to be understood and analysed more than the story of the dragon and its kids. Infact for a generation to come, we may be telling the story of the great dragon which breathed fire and consumed the eagle in the sky. What happens to the dragon after that is the plot where almost everyone has a different ending.
Monday, February 07, 2011
Subjective Value and Market Prices / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
One of the most subtle aspects of modern economic theory is the relation between subjective value and objective money prices. This is an area where the Austrians have an advantage over other schools, because they care more about their forebears than most other economists, and because Austrians were instrumental in the development of subjective-value theory.
Sunday, February 06, 2011
China Economy in the Year of the Rabbit / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Derrick
Happy New Year 4708!
According to the Chinese calendar it’s the Year of the Rabbit. The leading Asian brokerage firm CLSA reports the Rabbit will “wrest the reins from the decidedly unpleasant and erratic Tiger that’s been tossing and turning the markets over the past 12 months.” We all could appreciate a respite from extreme volatility.
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Sunday, February 06, 2011
If Friday's U.S. Employment Data Confused You... / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Trader_Mark
... this story via AP should help 'clear' it up. There remains a lot of confusion even by economists who follow this stuff for a living. Essentially the larger story is traditional businesses are not hiring at pace so large swathes of America are either (a) dropping out of the workforce or (b) becoming self employed. Hence the new workers in category b respond affirmatively when the household survey calls and asks "are you working?". Even if working means selling some of those old Beanie Babies on their new fangled Ebay store.
Saturday, February 05, 2011
The Burden of Lower Economic Growth and Frequent Recessions / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
"My best guess is that we'll have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific. Even though technically we'll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress." -- Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a Q&A at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Saturday, February 05, 2011
U.S. January Employment Report Suggests Continutation of Fed Easy Monetary Policy Stance / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The January employment report includes special factors, so the format of today's commentary is different from the procedure we follow for each month's employment report. The comment starts with a discussion of the special factors, followed by a conclusion, and ends with an analysis of customary details.
Saturday, February 05, 2011
U.S. Labor Force and Unemployment Statistical BS / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Mike_Shedlock
I had no idea what to expect in today's jobs report. ADP projected 187,000 jobs but has been wildly off numbers reported by the BLS. Economists expected +146,000 jobs. The actual establishment survey report shows +36,000.
I knew huge revisions and methodology changes were coming this month would make gaming the report a crap-shoot. However, the amazing thing in the jobs report was not the number of jobs, but the statistical sleight-of-hand in the unemployment rate.
Friday, February 04, 2011
The Cause and Evidence of Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
In a heated debate on the February 1st episode of CNBC's "The Kudlow Report", financial commentator Donald Luskin offered his "textbook" definition of inflation as "an overall rise in the general price level." I countered with the "dictionary" definition. My 1988 edition of Webster's Dictionary defines inflation as follows: "An increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods, resulting in a substantial and continuing rise in the general price level." [Emphasis added.] These differences are not academic and go a long way toward explaining why economists argue so vociferously.
Friday, February 04, 2011
The Euro Debt Crisis and Economic Theory / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Kel_Kelly
Throughout the last year, European debt problems have been cited as a threat to both the euro and to the American economy, among other entities. While many correct assertions have been made concerning the potential impact of a European debt implosion, there have also been many ill-conceived ones. It is often faulty economic theory that leads to faulty conclusions. This article revisits economic theory — from a free-market perspective — as it relates to the current European monetary challenges.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Initial Jobless Claims Decline, Assessment of Labor Market Little Changed / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Initial jobless claims fell 42,000 during the week ended January 29 to 415,000, reversing nearly the entire 54,000 jump recorded in the prior week. The Labor Department has indicated that declines in initial jobless claims were from states who reported storm-related increases in the prior week. Inclement weather in several states this week suggests that additional backlogs due to bad weather are likely to distort readings once again. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, fell 84,000 to 3.925 million. Claims filed under special programs, which lag initial jobless claims by two weeks, show a small drop for the week ended January 15 (4.55 million vs. 4.69 million for week ended January 8, see Chart 8).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 04, 2011
The Greater Depression Smoot-Hawley Redux / Economics / Protectionism
By: James_Quinn
As the Greater Depression continues along a parallel pathway with the Great Depression of the 1930s, Congress is about to commit the same blunder it made in 1930. The rocket scientists in the House of Representatives in September passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, which aims to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation by targeting imports from China and other countries with currencies that are perceived to be undervalued.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 03, 2011
Inflationary Indications of the Broadest Measure of Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Richard_Daughty
The Gold Report interviewed John Williams of ShadowStats.com, who said, "I continue to track M3, the Fed's broadest measure of the money supply until it ceased publication in March of 2006. Generally, the broader the measure of systemic liquidity, the better it serves as a predictor. In terms of giving a signal for the economy, you have to adjust the growth for inflation."
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Wednesday, February 02, 2011
The Economic “Recovery” in Consumer Loans Isn’t Real / Economics / US Economy
By: Casey_Research
Bud Conrad, The Casey Report writes: The amount of loans being provided by our banking system is a good reflector of the strength of our economy. Below is a big-picture view that shows the total loans in the U.S. as the Fed reports in its H.8 each week. We can see that loans outstanding declined at a rapid rate at the beginning of the current great recession, but there seems to be a recovery in the little jump at the end of the chart, as highlighted by the two small black arrows. A little closer look shows that the Consumer Loans segment is the source of the optimism that we see in the total.
Wednesday, February 02, 2011
How the US Government Manipulates Inflation Data / Economics / Inflation
By: PhilStockWorld
The PCE bothered me yesterday.
The Government told us that the PCE core price index for December was 0% - no inflation at all. I found that to be incredible - as in not credible at all and then Tusked asked me how long the Bernank could keep justifying his rampant money printing with fake government data, to which I responded: "I had many derogatory things to say about that but I was literally so sickened by that BS that I couldn’t bring myself to comment on it so I just left it alone but it’s a very sad joke that our government can tell us that there was no inflation in December while the whole planet is falling apart, isn’t it?"
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
India a Foreign Investors Paradise, Devastating Impacts of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement / Economics / India
By: Global_Research
Kavaljit Singh writes: Under the proposed India-EU free trade agreement, the European Commission (EC) has sought an expansive mandate to negotiate on investment issues on the behalf of the European Union. On January 20, 2011, the EC officially made recommendations to the European Council seeking modifications in the negotiating directives for the trade agreement with India.
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Inflation is Here to Stay / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_Pento
In current economic analysis, inflation is largely in the eye of the beholder, and depending on how you choose to look, very different stories emerge. In the U.S., food and beverages count for just 16.4% of the CPI calculation. The Chinese apparently believe that the basic necessities of life should count for more, assigning a 33% weight to the nutritional components. These differences in measurement are partially responsible for the divergent inflation climate in both countries, and make most people believe that inflation is fickle and localized. From my perspective, inflation is a global wave that will ultimately swamp all shores.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
China’s Inflation Rate Nudges U.S. Retailers to Look to Other Asian Suppliers / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
China's inflation rate is climbing faster than expected, triggering a wave of price increases across the country and spurring foreign companies to search elsewhere for suppliers.
China's consumer price index hit 4.6% in December and 5.1% in November - it's highest level in 28 months. Annual inflation for 2010 was 3.3%, which is above the government's 3% target rate.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Could China Be Forced To Bring A New Global Recession by 2015? / Economics / China Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
Bloomberg on Sunday, Jan. 30 cited a 28-page report--The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History (pdf file below)--by Barrie Wilkinson, a London-based partner at consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
The report describes a scenario--spanned 2013 to 2015--when Western QE-induced inflation brings down China, creating a debt crisis in the commodity sector--inclusive of resource-dependent countries as well as commodity producers--which eventually plunge the world into another recession, and a new world order by 2015.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Japan Learns to Live with Deflation, If Only Analysts Could Figure Out How / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Japan, wages are lower, but so are prices for goods and services, even food. Japan's companies are devising ways to profit from deflation, says Bloomberg writer Aki Ito in Japan Learns to Live with Deflation.
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
The Fed and Job Creation / Economics / Central Banks
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Unemployment continues to plague our economy. In spite of constant claims that we have just turned the corner into recovery, the jobs reports remain grim with no real signs of improvement. While Keynesian economists and big government apologists scratch their heads about persistent unemployment in spite of unprecedented government "investment" in the economy, free market economists understand the problem perfectly well. In short, they understand that we are looking to the Federal Reserve to solve an unemployment crisis that the Fed itself largely created.
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