Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Dismantling John Williams’ Hyperinflation Predictions / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Mike_Stathis
If you look around on the various gold bug web sites, you are likely to see the same crowd posting the same lines of hyperinflation and everything else they can conjure up in order to scare people into loading up on excessive amounts of physical gold. Note the emphasis on “physical gold” rather than gold ETFs.
Never mind that gold has very little utility. Never mind that physical gold is not considered a liquid asset. Never mind that gold hacks are financially tied into rising gold prices and therefore have a financial interest in pumping up the price of gold. You should buy gold and hold it because it’s going to continue to rise in price as the end of the dollar nears, right? Not so fast.
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Monday, January 31, 2011
PopCon: The ‘Economic Recovery’ Lie / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: James_West
It is only human to seek reasons for optimism, and to find comfort in self-delusion. “You’re going to be just fine,” is probably one of the most frequent lies told among family members when serious injury or illness occurs. We have to believe we’re going to be “just fine”, because the alternative is too painful, and painfully unacceptable.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
U.S. Real Statistical Economic Recovery, Bubble Complacency / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The Recent GDP Numbers – A Real Statistical Recovery
Consumer Spending Rose? Where Was the Income?
A Bubble in Complacency
Egypt
This week I had the privilege of being on the same panel with former Comptroller General David Walker and former Majority Leader (and presidential candidate) Richard Gephardt. A Democrat to the left of me and a self-declared nonpartisan to the right, stuck in the middle and not knowing where the unrehearsed conversation would take us. As it turned out, to a very interesting conclusion, which is the topic of this week's letter. By way of introduction to those not familiar with them, David M. Walker (born 1951) served as United States Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008, and is now the Founder and CEO of the Comeback America Initiative. Gephardt served in Congress for 28 years, was House Majority Leader from 1989 to 1995 and Minority Leader from 1995 to 2003, running for president in 1988 and 2004.
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Saturday, January 29, 2011
Q4 Real Gross Domestic Product Shows U.S. Economy is on Expansion Path / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real gross domestic product of the U.S. economy rose at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010 after slower growth in the second and third quarters of the year. In 2010, on an annual average basis, the economy grew 2.9% after a 2.6% decline in 2009 and a steady reading in 2008. The level of real GDP in the fourth quarter ($13,382.6 billion) exceeds the peak registered in the fourth quarter of 2007 ($13,363.5billion). Effectively, the economic recovery phase is history and the U.S. is on a path of economic expansion (see Chart 2).
Friday, January 28, 2011
Why Consumer Spending Remains a Problem / Economics / US Economy
By: Profit_Confidential
Consumer spending on Black Friday and Cyber Monday was excellent, but the spending momentum failed to extend into the holiday shopping season. The retail sales excluding auto in December slipped to 0.5%, down from one percent in November and below the estimate of 0.6%. Spending remains problematic and will hamper growth.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
Is the Fed Taking the Economic Recovery Too Far, Too Fast? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Clif_Droke
The latest round of economic numbers continues to impress Wall Street and is keeping hopes of a continued economic recovery alive. Many observers question, however, if perhaps the Fed is taking the recovery too far, too fast.On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales for December increased 17.5% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 329,000 units. This was above the consensus rate of 300,000 units and traders jumped into stocks on the news. The 17.5% increase comes following the 5.5% gain that occurred in November.
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Friday, January 28, 2011
U.S. Durable Goods and Housing Home Sales Data / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Durable goods orders fell 2.5% in December, reflecting largely the impact of a significant drop in orders of civilian aircraft ($24 million vs. $5.019 billion in November). Excluding transportation, orders of durable goods moved up 0.5% in December vs. 4.5% gain in the prior month. Also orders of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 1.4% in December.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
New World Order: Food Price Inflation; House Price Deflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
You can tell by my bleary, bloodshot eyes, my rumpled appearance, my musky aromas and my overtly hostile attitude that I have been holed up in the Mogambo Armageddon Bunker (MAB), scared out of my mind about the inflation in prices that is surely going to consume us, thanks to the unholy Federal Reserve creating so incredibly much, so stupendously much, so astoundingly much, So Freaking Much Money (SFMM).
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
IMF Global Economic Forecast Revised Up on Emerging Market Growth & U.S. Tax Cuts / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday (Tuesday) raised its 2011 global economic forecast based on strong growth in emerging markets and stronger U.S. output fueled by tax-cut extensions.
The world economy will expand by 4.4%, more than the 4.2% the IMF projected in October, while growth in 2012 is expected to be 4.5%, unchanged from October, the agency said in an update to its World Economic Outlook report.
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Hidden Inflation Food Prices Flying Under the Fed's Radar / Economics / Inflation
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
Soaring food prices have been, perhaps, the most pressing global issue of the past two years – yet the U.S. Federal Reserve has taken a "hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil" approach to the global crisis.
Instead, the Fed has dutifully maintained its focus on so called "core inflation" in the United States – even as Americans suffer the consequences of the "hidden inflation" the government refuses to account for.
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Soars in January / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 60.6 in January from 53.3 in December. The January reading is the highest since May 2010. The Present Situation Index (31 vs. 24.9 in December) and Expectations Index (80.3 vs. 72.3 in December) advanced in January.
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Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Mervyn King Effectively Admits Bank of England Has Lost Control of Inflation and Economy / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Mervyn King along with Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee having spent virtually the whole of 2010 pumping out temporarily high inflation propaganda so as to prevent a wage price spiral from taking hold, now on having looked at preliminary data for January 2011 inflation to be released in Mid Feb, effectively admits that the Bank of England has lost control of Inflation and the Economy as the latest GDP data shocked everyone by showing a disastrous contraction of -0.5% for Q4 2010 against expectations for +0.5% (1% difference).
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Exponential Credit Growth Petri Dish; Steve Keen Responds to "World Economic Forum Endorses Fraud" / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to World Economic Forum Endorses Fraud; Steve Keen Mocks the WEF Report, So Do I; The Purported "Need to Double Credit in 10 Years" I received a nice email from Steve Keen.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
The Financial Crisis, The Worst Is Behind Us / Economics / Global Economy
By: DailyWealth
Steve Sjuggerud writes: "It's unprecedented," you'll hear people say.
"It's the worst since the Great Depression," you'll also hear. "We've never experienced such bad times."
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
How Fast Has the Jobless Rate Declined After Prior Recessions? / Economics / Unemployment
By: Asha_Bangalore
The 9.4% unemployment rate in December 2010, an elevated reading, is down from a high of 10.1% in October 2009. The recent cycle low for the unemployment rate was 4.4% in May 2007. Although each business cycle is different, it is still worthwhile to recall how fast the jobless rate has declined in the past 60 years after each recession. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 24, 2011
Response to Krugman on Austrian Business-Cycle Theory / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
As many readers already know, last week Paul Krugman linked to one of my Mises Daily articles explaining the importance of capital theory in any discussion of the business cycle. Although Krugman graciously described my fable about sushi-eating islanders as "the best exposition I've seen yet of the Austrian view that's sweeping the GOP," naturally he derided the approach as a "great leap backward" and a repudiation of 75 years of economic progress since the work of John Maynard Keynes. To bolster his rejection, Krugman listed several problems he saw with the Austrian understanding.
Monday, January 24, 2011
World Economic Forum Endorses Fraud, "Need to Double Credit in 10 Years" / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Mike_Shedlock
A few days ago I received an email from the World Economic Forum regarding a need to double credit over the next 10 years. Here is that email.
Read full article... Read full article...New York, USA, 18 January 2011 – Credit levels will need to double over the next 10 years, growing by US$ 103 trillion, to support consensus-projected economic growth. This doubling of credit could be achieved without increasing the risk of major crisis, finds More Credit with Fewer Crises: Responsibly Meeting the World’s Growing Demand for Credit, a report released by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with McKinsey & Company. The study develops a detailed global credit model using historical credit volumes and forecasting potential credit demand to 2020 across 79 countries, representing 99% of world credit volume. The study applies a sustainability methodology to the projected credit demand, using newly developed metrics to answer the following two questions: Will credit growth be sufficient to meet demand? Is there a risk of future credit crises and, if so, where?
Monday, January 24, 2011
UK Inflation Forecast 2011, Imminent Spike to Above CPI 4%, RPI 6% / Economics / Inflation
By: NewsLetter
The Market Oracle NewsletterJan 17th, 2011 Issue #1 Vol. 5
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Sunday, January 23, 2011
U.S. Economic Turmoil in 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Stephen_Lendman
Wall Street predicts blue skies. Economic recovery will continue. Stocks will deliver double-digit gains. On January 14, the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecast Survey headlined, "Economists Optimistic on Growth," expecting in 2011:
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Great Depression, Debt and Economic Decline: Ireland, Portugal, Greece, US, UK / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Bob_Chapman
As of Wednesday we have seen the euro rise 7 straight days, which caused the USDX to fall to 78.14, this in spite of having 10-year rates in Spain, Portugal and Ireland rising 3 bps.
Both food and energy prices have risen at double-digit rates. This is an inflation reflection of 1979-80, 1996 and 2008. In the 1979 and 1980 and in the 2008 period our inflation gauge measured real inflation of 14-1/4%. Both occurred in recessions similar to today’s inflationary depression.
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