Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, January 23, 2011
China vs. Inflation: A Love-30 Match So Far / Economics / Inflation
China released a slew of important economic data on the evening of Wednesday, Jan. 19, and markets were paying particular attention to China’s inflation. In order to put out the wild fire of inflation, China's central bank raised interest rates twice, and increased the reserve ratio for lenders four times in the span of just last two months.
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Sunday, January 23, 2011
China Boom or Bust? / Economics / China Economy
As China’s economy has continued to put up stellar economic growth in the midst of one of the worst global economic crises on record, it’s widely believed that China will lead the world out of its downturn and soon rise to global economic dominance.
So it’s no surprise that there was a lot of attention given to Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit to Washington this week.
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Friday, January 21, 2011
China Monetary Policy: Inflation Won't Last – Growth Will / Economics / China Economy
Jason Simpkins writes: Investors yesterday (Thursday) were rattled by fears that China's economy is overheating after it was revealed that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 10.3% in 2010.
However, the policy changes that will come as a result of the data ultimately will benefit both China and the United States.
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Friday, January 21, 2011
U.S. Jobless Claims Reverse Gains Posted Last Week / Economics / Unemployment
Initial jobless claims dropped 37,000 to 404,000 during the week ended January 15 after advancing 30,000 in the prior week. Additional weekly readings will be necessary to confirm if the reversal is not temporary.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 20, 2011
World is in the Early Stages of a Major Leg Up in Food Prices / Economics / Food Crisis
From all accounts it appears that the world is in the early stages of a major leg up in food prices. The major macroeconomic trend will likely drive economic policy and the investment outlook for years to come. Although mainstream pundits like to focus on cyclical drivers like the weather, the real force behind the move is secular. The U.S. is leading the world in a pandemic of monetary inflation that is helping to cause commodity prices, food in particular, to skyrocket across the globe.
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011 / Economics / Great Depression II
What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few "nightmare scenarios" that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis. The United States, Japan and most of the nations in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. The Federal Reserve continues to play reckless games with the U.S. dollar. The price of oil is skyrocketing and the global price of food just hit a new record high. Food riots are already breaking out all over the world. Meanwhile, the rampant fraud and corruption going on in world financial markets is starting to be exposed and the whole house of cards could come crashing down at any time. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic collapse could happen at literally any time. There is no way that all of this debt and all of this financial corruption is sustainable. At some point we are going to reach a moment of "total system failure".
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
Job-Killing Labor Costs and the Manufacturing Sector / Economics / Employment
Christopher Westley writes: If there is one issue that pops up again and again in my conversations about economics with interested noneconomists, it is manufacturing.
There's a genuine concern about the state of manufacturing in the United States, and I am not sure of the reason why. It could be that there is an inchoate sense that manufacturing is dying here, given that so many of our popular-consumption goods seem to be made overseas. Then there is the issue of the trade deficit, which is generally reported on in the mainstream media in a manner that is irresponsible, uninformed, or both.
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
Luxury Brands Are Back In Style as America's Wealthy Return to Their Wears / Economics / Economic Recovery
Jason Simpkins writes: The U.S. unemployment rate may still be high, but that hasn't stopped consumer spending from rallying. And in contrast to the darkest days of the financial crisis, when discount retailers like Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) ruled the day, luxury brands have been doing the heavy lifting.
Indeed, bolstered by the extension of the Bush tax cuts and strong demand in Asia, luxury brands are coming back into style.
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
Trouble in Brazil or More Good Times Ahead? / Economics / Brazil
Today, the Brazil's central bank is likely to raise its key interest rate, the SELIC as discussed in the January newsletter. Analysts estimate a 50 basis point hike. If this occurs, it will place short-term rates at 11.25%. The global inflation trend is driving this decision, as food and energy costs have hit Brazilian consumers particularly hard over the past several months.
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
Systemic Global Economic Crisis At the Crossroads of Three Roads of Global Chaos / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
This GEAB issue marks the fifth anniversary of the publication of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin. In January 2006, on the occasion of the first issue, the LEAP/E2020 team indicated that a period of four to seven years was opening up which would be characterized by the “Fall of the Dollar Wall”, an event similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall which resulted, in the following years, in the collapse of the communist bloc then that of the USSR. Today, in this GEAB issue, which presents our thirty-two anticipations for 2011, we believe that the coming year will be a pivotal year in the roll out of this process between 2010 and 2013. It will be, in any case, a ruthless year because it will mark the entry into the terminal phase of the world before the crisis (1).
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
China's Inflation Problem Looms Large / Economics / Inflation
The global economy has become so unbalanced that even government ministers who would normally have trouble explaining supply or demand clearly recognize that something has to give. To a very large extent the distortions are caused by China's long-standing policy of pegging its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar. But as China's economy gains strength, and the American economy weakens, the cost and difficulty of maintaining the peg become ever greater, and eventually outweigh the benefits that the policy supposedly delivers to China. In the first few weeks of 2011 fresh evidence has arisen that shows just how difficult it has become for Beijing.
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Thursday, January 20, 2011
An Economic Recovery Unto Death / Economics / Economic Recovery
In the Bible there is a reference to a “sin unto death.” In the realm of U.S. economic policy a situation is developing that could easily lead to a “death” of the current recovery. Ironically, this brewing economic destruction is springing from the same policies that are responsible for the recovery (call it a “recovery unto death”). These policies are supposed to lead the U.S. out of recession and into a “new tomorrow” but as we’ll discuss here, the end result is likely to be something far short of what policy leaders envision.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
The Politics of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
The reason that political establishments have always been biased against monetary deflation[1] can be found in the manner in which wealth transfer occurs under inflationary and deflationary environments.
During an inflationary credit expansion, wealth is transferred from the public in general to the earliest recipients of the newly created credit money. In practice, the earliest recipients are interest groups with the strongest political connections to the state and, in particular, the state institutions that control monetary policy (i.e., the Federal Reserve in the United States). Importantly, the wealth transfer that takes place during an inflation is hidden and largely unrecognized by the majority of the population. The population is unaware that the supply of money is increasing and the attendant rise in prices, ostensibly beneficial to business, initially
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Malaysia’s Rich Natural Resources: The Next Great Asian Investment Opportunity / Economics / Emerging Markets
Last week I flew to Penang, Malaysia, and traipsed around the countryside in sweltering heat and humidity looking for the next great Asian investment opportunity. I found several amazing ones. But some background first …
Penang is a fascinating island city that sits a few miles on the Indian Ocean side of the Malaysian mainland near the northern mouth of the Straits of Malacca. It is this strategic location that turned Penang into one of the most important commercial trading centers in Southeast Asia.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Protect Your Wealth from Central Bank Lies on Inflation / Economics / Inflation
If you believe what central banks say and you plan your investments accordingly, you could be in for some big surprises.
Consider, for example, some of the lies spouting forth from the U.S. Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) …
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Defining Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
I have grown to think that the definition of "economics" was the one found in the Mogambo Big Book Of Economic Stuff (MBBOES), which is, "The horrific inflation in prices caused by evil and/or stupid people creating excess money, perpetrators of which comprise a long, long list of evil people and/or stupid people, starting with the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the odious Supreme Court, whose particular idiocy is their traitorous decision to allow a fiat currency, instead of the dollar being defined as a specific weight of gold as required by the freaking Constitution of the United States, for crying out loud, a specific mandate purposely put there by the Founding Fathers to prevent inflation in the money supply, which causes inflation in prices, which is the Number One Killer Of Economies (NOKOE). See also Doomed, We're Freaking."
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Tossing the U.S. Consumer Under the Bus And Insanely Expecting an Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy
I’ve been pouring through the Fed Reserve’s recent release of circa 2005 FOMC meeting transcripts. The most striking observation that one can make is that the consumer - the very lifeblood that determines whether our economy will live or die - has been discarded.
Discarded --- as in tossed under the bus.
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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
UK Inflation CPI Hits 3.7%, Higher than Zimbabwe, Britain Sleep Walking towards Wage Price Spiral / Economics / Inflation
UK Inflation for December 2010 soared to CPI 3.7% from 3.3% which is set against academic economist expectations of just a few hours earlier of 3.3%. This now puts UK inflation Higher than that of hyperinflation prone Zimbabwe's CPI at 3.2%, thus making a mockery of long standing commentary in the press that it was ridiculous to compare Britain's inflation problems with that of Zimbabwe.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011
Is Mexico a Country on Fire? / Economics / Mexico
Just a three-hour drive from our offices in San Antonio lies an entrance to Mexico, one of the most promising but precarious investment opportunities in global markets. Like stepping on an ant hill, President Felipe Calderon’s war against the drug cartels has created chaos but the country’s economy has proven much tougher than many thought.
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Tuesday, January 18, 2011
The Many Euphemisms for Money Creation Inflation, Confused Language, Confused Thinking / Economics / Inflation
According to the teachings of the Greek philosopher Parmenides, language illustrates human thinking (and reasoning); confused language is thus tantamount to confused thinking; confused thinking, in turn, provokes unintended acts and undesired outcomes.[1]
"Doublespeak" — a term that rose to prominence through the work of Eric Blair (1903–1950), more famously known as George Orwell — is a conspicuous form of confused language and thought. The term doublespeak was actually derived from the terms "newspeak" and "doublethink," which Orwell used in his novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, published in 1949.[2] While under suppressive Party instruction, the mind of the protagonist, Winston Smith
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