Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, August 12, 2012
U.S. Economy Huge Reality Check Ahead? / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
Let's try and be insightful today, shall we?
Equities have been rallying; we'll call it the summer rally.
Major benchmarks are only a few percentage points off their highs. It's all good, right?
Sunday, August 12, 2012
Euro-zone Disaster Zone, Breaking Up is Hard to Do, Who do You Trust? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
They say that breaking up is hard to do. Now I know, I know that it's true Don't say that this is the end. Instead of breaking up I wish that we were making up again. – Neil Sedaka, 1962
I have contended for some time that Europe is faced with two choices: Disaster A, which is the break-up of the eurozone, or Disaster B, which is the creation of a fiscal union, which keeps the euro more or less intact. Over the last few months I have come to realize that there is indeed a third option, which now looks increasingly possible. This is rather sad, as the third option is just an even worse Disaster C. Each choice carries with it its own unique set of problems, but the outcome of any of the choices will be that the people of Europe face a serious recession, if not a depression. This will impact global growth for more than a short time and, depending on the choice, could plunge the world into a crisis as bad as or worse than the recent credit crisis. In today’s letter we look at all three choices, meanwhile musing on how we arrived at the bottom of such a deep hole, shovels flailing.
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Thursday, August 09, 2012
Why U.S. Econcomy the Bears Are Wrong…Again / Economics / US Economy
By: Yiannis_G_Mostrous
Since the beginning of the year, being bearish and trashing the global economy has been the favorite pastime for the majority of market observers. Recurring negative themes have been the sluggish US economy, the supposedly imminent demise of the euro and the slowdown in growth of China’s gross domestic product (GDP).
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Thursday, August 09, 2012
Why Keynesians Hate the Gold Standard / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
Recently, the leftist London Guardian posted an article against the nineteenth-century gold coin standard. The author, who seems recently to have begun shaving, has provided a highly useful summary of the Keynesian case against the gold coin standard. His article is a fine mixture of familiar old canards and creative new errors. His name is Duncan Weldon.
Mr. Weldon has not written a book, so it is difficult for me to know exactly what his monetary theory is. He was the unknown Keynesian in the 2011 BBC debate between two teams of economists at the London School of Economics: The Keynes vs. Hayek debate. I assume that Robert Skidelsky, his partner, thought he was an up-and-coming economist. Skidelsky is the author of a multi-volume biography of Keynes.
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Tuesday, August 07, 2012
Why More Money Printing Will Increase Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment
By: Michael_Pento
Money Printing Doesn’t Create Jobs
The developed world’s central banks are now foolishly preparing for a full assault on their respective currencies in an attempt to lower unemployment rates. Spurring these central bankers into action is persistently anemic markets and employment data, which they believe can be rectified by creating inflation.
Tuesday, August 07, 2012
U.S. Economic Recovery Orders and Production: No Time for Complacency / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
We have been assaulted with economic news of all sorts, from every corner of the globe, while trying to watch the Olympics and while we would rather be enjoying summer and decompressing (at least in the Northern hemisphere).
But the data keeps coming. My friend John Silvia, the Chief Economist of Wells Fargo, has been with me in Maine this past weekend. And as we caught fish and shared our thoughts, we also both managed to get out our respective writing done. His note this morning is a particularly interesting analysis of US data, which has him wondering about his call for tepid growth but no recession
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Monday, August 06, 2012
The Future of the Austrian Economic's School / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
On Saturday, July 28, I spoke to a group of almost 150 mostly undergraduates at the Mises Institute. They had flown in from across the USA and from 20 foreign countries. It was a week-long seminar. I was the final speaker.
It is an amazing experience for an anti-Communist of my generation to speak with a Chinese student studying economics in the USA.
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Sunday, August 05, 2012
Alternate Perspectives On U.S. Employment and Unemployment / Economics / Employment
By: Richard_Shaw
Employment Population Ratio: Age 16-64 With No Disability
A higher portion of men in this demographic have jobs than since mid-2009. Women have about the same ratio of employment as they have had for the last couple of years.
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Saturday, August 04, 2012
U.S. July Employment Situation – Labor Market is Improving at Snail’s Pace / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 8.254% in July vs. 8.217% in June. The cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0%, registered in October 2009.
Payroll Employment: +163,000 jobs in July vs. +64,000 in June.
Private sector jobs increased 172,000 after a gain of 73,000 in June. A net loss of 6,000 jobs due to revisions of payroll estimates of May and June.
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Friday, August 03, 2012
Mr. Bernanke's Postponement Strategy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Ian_R_Campbell
On Wednesday, August 1 Chairman Bernanke provided an update on the Federal Reserve's position on the U.S. economy. He commented briefly in a negative tone on U.S. GDP growth, unemployment, consumer spending and the housing sector. He said the Fed's U.S. inflation expectations remained stable. He reconfirmed the Fed's policy of reinvesting in U.S. treasuries until December 2012.
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Friday, August 03, 2012
Deflationists' Wrong in Both Theory and Historical Fact / Economics / Deflation
By: Gary_North
An inflationist is someone who believes that price inflation is the result of two things: (1) monetary inflation and (2) central bank policy.
A deflationist is someone who believes that deflation is inevitable, despite (1) monetary inflation and (2) central bank policy.
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Thursday, August 02, 2012
Social-Economic Consequences of Malaysia's persistently High Income Inequality / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
The Income Inequality have always been a thorny issue for the past few thousand years. During the middle ages in Europe, they have the bourgeois (higher class) and the proletariats (ordinary folds). In ancient China they too have different class like the Merchants, artisans, court officials, laborers and etc. Needless to say the bourgeois and the merchants controlled most of the wealth.
Wednesday, August 01, 2012
On the Road to Freedom From Fiat Money Economics / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Gary_North
Yesterday was the 100th anniversary of Milton Friedman's day of birth. The Wall Street Journal ran a laudatory article on him.
This year is the 100th anniversary of Ludwig von Mises' Theory of Money and Credit. There has been no article in the Wall Street Journal. The Mises Institute took my advice and held several sessions on that book at its March week-long Austrian Scholars Conference. A book on that book will be published next year. Few people in academia and the financial media will notice.
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Wednesday, August 01, 2012
Was India's Worst Black Out in Human History Triggered by a Solar Flare? / Economics / Environmental Issues
By: DK_Matai
Asia's third-largest economy -- INDIA -- was hit by three more huge power grid failures, one day after a similar, but smaller power failure covered half the country -- leaving more than 650 million people without electricity in the world’s biggest blackout according to the ATCA Research & Analysis Wing. More than half the population of India has been affected, which is roughly 10% of the world's population and bigger than the entire population of the European Union or the United States, Russia and Brazil combined. In parallel, hours of power outage in the scorching summer sparked protest in most parts of Pakistan and angry protesters attacked offices of power supply departments in some areas.
Wednesday, August 01, 2012
Euro-zone Economy Enters Twilight Zone / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Michael_Pento
It is obvious to me that the world of economics has now fully entered the Twilight Zone. As evidence, last week, European Central Bank Head Mario Draghi pledged to quote, "Do whatever it takes preserve the Euro. And believe me, it will be enough." In this upside down world of phony Keynesian Economics, doing "whatever it takes to preserve the Euro" apparently now means promising to dilute the purchasing power of the currency into oblivion.
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Wednesday, August 01, 2012
U.S. Economy on Soft Trajectory as Consumer Spending Falls / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
Real consumer spending declined 0.1% in June, after posting gains of 0.2% and 0.1% in April and May, respectively. Outlays of durable goods and services held steady in June, but that of non-durables fell 0.4%. We can discern the causes for a drop in consumer non-durables when the Commerce Department publishes complete details of consumer expenditures on Friday, August 3. More importantly, the level of real consumer spending in June ($9576 billion) is lower than the second quarter average ($9582 billion), which sets up the case of strong monthly gains in consumer spending in the third quarter if consumer spending has to make a noticeable contribution to real GDP. There are doubts about a strong trajectory of consumer spending in the second-half of the year, given the current worrisome labor market situation.
Monday, July 30, 2012
The Economics of War / Economics / Social Issues
By: Submissions
Will Dendy writes: War can end depressions, encourage the creation of new technologies and drive the human race forwards.
It is frightening to hear such complete fallacies as these becoming increasingly repeated by so-called intelligent and educated people. In the long term, war creates nothing more than destruction, despair and a retardation of the progress of the human race. In this essay, I will dispel the two biggest fallacies regarding war, and suggest far better ways to cure problems than blowing other people apart.
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Monday, July 30, 2012
The Multi-Trillion Dollar Black Hole That Could Undermine the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
The difficulties facing retirees aren't just their problems. Underfunded pensions weigh down everyone's retirement expectations and America's future growth prospects.
Kicking the can down the road on this one has involved everything from outright lying to misrepresentation, bordering on fraud in the way pension plans calculate their liabilities.
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Sunday, July 29, 2012
Central Bankers Choice Between Deflationary or Hyperinflationary Depression / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Gary_North
What the Federal Reserve System can do and what it will do are two different things.
The Federal Reserve System can monetize anything. It can create digital money and buy any asset it chooses to buy. There are no legal restrictions on what it is allowed to monetize.
If it were to do this, and it continued to do this, the dollar would fall to zero value. This would produce hyperinflation. The result would be the destruction of all dollar-based creditors. Debtors could pay off their loans with the sale of an egg or a pack of cigarettes. This is what farmers did in 1923 in Germany and Austria.
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Saturday, July 28, 2012
U.S. Drought Disaster Depression Agricultural Commodities Crops Report / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Richard_Mills
Because of the worst drought since 1988 the U.S. Department of Agriculture declared a federal disaster area in almost one-third of all the counties in the United States - more than 1,300 counties covering 29 states, the largest disaster declaration ever made by the USDA. Only in the 1930s and 1950s has a drought covered more land.