Analysis Topic: Economic Trends AnalysisThe analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, June 06, 2012
Austerity decimated Asian economies during their 1997/98 financial crisis and similar measures have failed to rescue the PIIGS in Europe 2012. David Cameron’s austerity measures have also not saved the UK from falling back into recession. So why is Wayne Swan in Australia so proud of his balanced budget? And why does Barack Obama threaten the wealthy with increased taxes while the GOP advocate spending cuts in order to reduce the US deficit? Are we condemned to follow Europe into a deflationary spiral?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 05, 2012
Few Americans realize that the Great Depression started in Europe.
Now as then, the global economy is fragile.
The economy is clearly vulnerable to a debilitating wave of debt deflation. The threat is approaching quickly from an important source: Europe. The same sequence of events occurred in 1929, when deflation started overseas before lapping onto U.S. shores. In Germany, for instance, real GDP fell 1% in 1929 after growing 8.2% in 1927 and 2.8% in 1928. Other economic indicators peaked as early as 1927. At the time, economically-weak Germany was the equivalent of today's so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain).
Financial Forecast , January 2012Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 04, 2012
Gloomers and Doomers Still Twittering About Employment: So Why Does U.S. Exports Jobs? / Economics / Employment
Oh dear, new headlines!! Only 69,000 more jobs in May…below “expectations” so now the America is doomed!!! Told you so…I predict there will be Armageddon unless of course someone DOES something.
In fact that’s certain unless “someone” does what my pet-theory says they should do. But they probably won’t because no-one understands my true genius, so that will teach them!!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 02, 2012
Many people became convinced that data releases earlier this year indicated that "recovery" in the U.S. was imminent. But as I have been saying for months, this evidence would ultimately be shown to be as reliable as sightings of Bigfoot. Lots of people claim to say they have seen it, some even produce plaster footprints, but in the end all we have is a guy in an ape suit. The economic recovery, that has been discussed so loudly and often in recent months, will be shown to be similarly mythical.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 01, 2012
U.S. Payroll's Disaster Made Worse by Grossly Distorted Unemployment Statistics / Economics / Unemployment
Jobs +69,000, Employment Rate +.1 to 8.2%, April Jobs Revised Lower to +77,000; Long-term Unemployment +310,000
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- US Unemployment Rate rose .01 to 8.2%
- In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,653,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,307,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,345,000.
- This month the Civilian Labor Force rose by 642,000.
- Those "Not in Labor Force" decreased by 461,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
- Those "Not in Labor Force" fell to 87,958,000 from last month's record high of 88,419,000.
- By the Household Survey, the number of people employed rose by 422,000.
- By the Household Survey, over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,479,000.
- Participation Rate rose .2 to 63.8%
- There are 8,098,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, an increase of 245,000
- Thus of the the net of 422,000 people presumably hired by the household survey, 245,000 were for part-time jobs.
- Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) rose by 310,000.
- Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Yesterday was Memorial Day. We said a prayer for all the brave men and women who died in war…after all, we have a heart!
But the brain never quite gets in sync. When it looks at what those soldiers were doing, it wishes they had never left home. America’s wars were almost all ‘wars of choice,’ says a friend. “They were fought to expand the power of the empire. The Mexican-American war was a bald-faced grab for Mexican land. The ‘Civil War’ was a battle to bring the South into submission. The US took Puerto Rico and the Philippines in the Spanish American war. President Wilson took the US into WWI simply to throw our weight around in Europe; we had no dog in that fight. He botched up the peace so badly that the Europeans went to war again 20 years later to sort it out. That was a war – WWII in Europe – that the US didn’t have to get involved in either.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped in May to 64.8 from 68.7 in the prior month. The sub-components of the index measuring the present situation (45.9 vs. 51.2 in April) and expectations of consumers (77.6 vs. 80.4 in April) declined in May. The current level of the Consumer Confidence Index is back to the mark seen in December. The Conference Board’s index is running counter to the improvement of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (79.3 vs. 76.3 in April). Labor market indicators play a big role in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index compared with the University of Michigan consumer optimism gauge.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 28, 2012
The political collapse in Greece and Moody's downgrade of the rankings of 16 Spanish banks at once have led to the decline in stock indexes all over the world. In Russia, the head of the Central Bank, Sergei Ignatiev, showed an optimistic reaction to such unpleasant news. Making a speech at the government last week, the official urged everyone not to panic. According to him, Russia is prepared to the crisis much better than it was four years ago.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 26, 2012
What If California Were Greece? Is Europe Coming Together or Flying Apart? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
It is simply hard to tear your eyes away from the slow-motion train wreck that is Europe. Historians will be writing about this moment in time for centuries, and with an ever-present media we see it unfold before our eyes. And yes, we need to tear our gaze away from Europe and look around at what is happening in the rest of the world. There is about to be an eerily near-simultaneous ending to the quantitative easing by the four major central banks while global growth is slowing down. And so, while the future of Europe is up for grabs, the true danger to global markets and growth may be elsewhere. But, let’s do start with the seemingly obligatory tour of Europe.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
We now live in a world where deflation has become public enemy number one. In this current economic environment, governments seek a condition of perpetual inflation in order to maintain the illusion of prosperity in the developed world. But in reality, deflation is the free-market approach to rectify a secular period of superfluous money supply growth, debt accumulation and asset price appreciation.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 20, 2012
John Williams, author of the ShadowStats.com newsletter, shines light on his interpretations of the GDP, CPI, unemployment and other government statistics in this exclusive Gold Report interview from the recent Recovery Reality Check conference. Highlights include what the money supply measures tell him and why QE3 will be a hard sell.
The Gold Report: John, at the recent Casey Research Recovery Reality Check conference you described the economic recovery heralded by the Obama administration as an illusion based largely on skewed inflation data. Can you walk us through why, based on your calculations, a recovery is impossible?Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Why Read: Because in our fiat currency world continuing GDP growth is of huge importance.
Featured Article: An article earlier this week reported GDP growth for both the 17 country Eurozone and the 27 country European Union was 0.0% in Q1 2012. The European Union includes the 17 Eurozone countries.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 18, 2012
The Fed and the European Central (ECB) face different policy challenges at the moment but the nature of recent economic developments has raised the probability of both central banks likely to consider another round of monetary policy support, with the Fed having significantly more room to ponder compared with the ECB.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Why Read: Because Youth Unemployment has to be at or near the top of both near-term and long-term economic issues that must be addressed, or if they aren't, bring the 'edge of the economic and societal cliff' ever closer.
Featured Article: A May 14 article focuses on Europe's youth unemployment numbers. The article reports that not only do many European countries currently suffer from serious youth unemployment rates, but also points out that while this may be a somewhat exacerbated problem currently, it is not a new phenomenon in many European countries. For example, the article reports that while youth unemployment rates have reached 51% in Greece and Spain, 36% in Italy, and 30% in Ireland, the average youth unemployment rate for the past 40 years has been:Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Economic Recovery Via Shared Sacrifice, Cutting Government Spending, Deficit and Debts / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
If the people and politicians of the U.S. can't muster the will to reform Social Security and Medicare, the country will slide on down toward what internationally renowned economist Lacy Hunt calls the "bang point." What we'd face on the other side would be bad news indeed. But in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Hunt goes on to list a few steps to turn the tide on economic growth. The route won't be an easy one but it would address the debt and begin to improve living standards.Read full article... Read full article...