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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

U.S. Inflation Data: Actual vs. Fed’s Forecast / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleApril inflation data point to an upward trend of both the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the core CPI, which excludes food and energy (see Chart 1). The data suggest that in as much as the Fed views the recent gains in energy and other commodity prices as "transitory," the level of concern could change fast if the economy gathers steam. In the three-months ended April 2011, the core CPI has risen at an annual rate of 6.2%.

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Economics

Monday, May 16, 2011

Bank of England's Phony Inflation Panic, Greece Bankrupt Again, Silver Crash 2011 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe week saw the Merv (Britain's version of the Bernank) step forward and utter excuses as to why he now expects UK inflation to 'temporarily' soar above 5% this year on the official CPI measure (that significantly under reports real inflation as experienced by the general population). Mervyn King in a smoke and mirrors presentation all but blamed speculators for the surge in commodity prices with expectations that UK energy prices would surge by 15% later in the year.

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Economics

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Q2 Economic Contraction Highly Probable / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecently I have been discussing the possibility that the US economy is in fact in a period of contraction. I want to revisit that call as I don't loosely throw out such a statement without backing it up with real data. Q1 2011 GDP was 1.77%, a 43% reduction in Q4 2010 GDP of 3.11%. Although Q1 GDP could be revised higher over the next two revisions it did highlight three sources of contraction.

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Economics

Saturday, May 14, 2011

U.S. Consumer Price Index, Dichotomy Between Overall and Core Price Inflation Persists / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in April after a 0.5% increase in March.  The CPI has posted gains between 0.4% and 0.5% for five consecutive months, putting the five month annualized change in the CPI at 5.8%.  Under other circumstances the Fed would view the recent readings of overall inflation as severely inflationary and engage in suitable monetary policy actions to prevent further increases in prices.  The present situation is different. 

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Economics

Friday, May 13, 2011

Why Inflation in China Could Lead to Another Global Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: Inflation in China is far more intractable than official headline statistics reveal.

That's potentially bad news for global growth and toppy stock and commodities markets.

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Economics

Friday, May 13, 2011

Why Economic Growth is Dead / Economics / US Economy

By: Dr_Martenson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJohn Rolls Submits: The end of the second round of quantitative easing (QE II) is going to be a complete disaster for the paper markets -- specifically commodities, stocks, and then finally bonds, in that order, with losses of 20% to 50% by the end of October. The only thing that will arrest the plunge will be QE III, although we should remain alert to the likelihood that it will be named something else in an attempt to obscure what it really is. Perhaps it will be known as the "Muni Asset Trust Term Liquidity Facility" or the "American Prime Purchase Program," but whatever it is called, it will involve hundreds of billions of thin-air dollars being printed and dumped into the financial system.  

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Economics

Friday, May 13, 2011

U.S. Retail Sales, Wholesale Price Inflation, Jobless Claims Economic Worries / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic data published this morning contain bothersome aspects.  Retail sales recorded the smallest monthly increase since July 2010, initial jobless claims remain at an elevated level, and wholesale prices moved up, inclusive of core prices which exclude food and energy. 

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Economics

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Macro Economic Theory Confusion on Inflation, Commodities, and the Fed / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Kel_Kelly

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA recent discussion regarding commodity prices on CNBC consisted virtually of sentence-by-sentence errors with respect to macroeconomic theory. Most of the misstatements involve either accidentally or intentionally — I don't know which — attributing economic and financial market events to various incorrect or misleading cause-and-effect scenarios, when the real explanation is simply the government's creation of money and credit.

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Economics

Thursday, May 12, 2011

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens on Higher Oil Prices In March / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe trade deficit widened to $48.18 billion in March from $45.44 billion in the prior month. Nominal exports (+4.6%) and imports (+4.9%) of goods and services advanced in March. In real terms, exports of goods grew 4.8%, while that of imports moved up 3.7%. Effectively, the real trade deficit of goods widened only slightly (%50.1 billion vs. $49.3 billion in February. For the first quarter, the real trade deficit of goods stands at $49.9 billion compared with $45.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The first quarter trade deficit is slightly smaller than the assumption included in the advance estimate of first quarter GDP, implying a small upward revision. The net impact on GDP will be determined by retail sales and inventories numbers to be published on May 12.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

The Economy When Capital Is Nowhere in Sight / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jeffrey_A_Tucker

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Travel Channel episode of No Reservations, a cooking-focused show narrated by Anthony Bourdain, took viewers to Port-au-Prince, Haiti. I had heard that the show offered unique insight into the country and its troubles. I couldn't imagine how. But it turns out to be true. Through the lens of food, we can gain an insight into culture, and from culture to economy, and from economy to politics and finally to what's wrong in this country and what can be done about it.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Inflation Fears: Real or Hysteria? / Economics / Inflation

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDebate continues to rage between the inflationists who say the money supply is increasing, dangerously devaluing the currency, and the deflationists who say we need more money in the economy to stimulate productivity.  The debate is not just an academic one, since the Fed’s monetary policy turns on it and so does Congressional budget policy.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Inflationary Reality Always Comes After “Recovery” / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Inflation watchers should be witnessing already the reality of the inflationary cycle; companies are cutting down their product sizes, cutting corners on packaging, and most importantly, raising prices.  A few household names like Nike, McDonalds, and Walmart have indicated that it is inflation that is driving up their costs of doing business, and now they’re looking for ways to pass on the costs.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

U.S. Economy Boom or Doom, The Truth about the Debt Ceiling Debate / Economics / US Debt

By: Q1_Publishing

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet the fear-mongering begin.

The debt ceiling debate has been positioned as a lose/lose situation.

Some claim a failure to increase the debt ceiling will lead to near-term financial Armageddon. They say the U.S. government can’t cut spending now. Deep cuts would kill the economic recovery.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

U.S. Small Business Survey Highlights Continued Pessimism about Business Conditions / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Small Business Optimism Index declined to 91.2 in April from 91.9 in the prior month.  More importantly, fewer firms had plans to increase capital expenditures in the next 3 to 6 months (21% vs. 24% in March) and the percentage of respondents indicating plans to increase payrolls held steady in April (2.0%). 

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Economics

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

U.S. Rising Inflation Pressures, as Non Oil Import Prices Also Advance / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRhetoric from the Fed has held that recent gains of commodity prices are "transitory."  Economic data have been supportive of this stance.  Core consumer prices are yet to show worrisome readings and inflation expectations remain anchored.  Against this backdrop, new inflation reports will be tracked closely.  The Consumer Price Index will be published on May 12; import prices were published this morning. 

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