Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Long Shadows Cast Over US Economy 2011 / Economics / US Economy
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Numerous are the threats to the USEconomy and US financial structures. Many are hidden threats, subtle challenges to undermine increasingly fragile support systems, planks, and cables that hold the system together. The year 2011 will be when the system breaks in open visible fashion, when the explanations that justify it sound silly and baseless, when the entire bond world endures major crashes. All thing financial are inter-related. Recall that in summer 2007, the professor occupying the US Federal Reserve claimed the subprime mortgage crisis was isolated.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Krugman's Straw-Man Market System / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
A friend of mine a decade ago was looking to do doctoral work in economics, and one of the places where he inquired was his state's flagship university. But he decided not to seek his doctorate at that particular place after he spoke to someone who was just about to defend his economics dissertation there.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
The Ruling Clan of India Has Lost the Plot on Inflation / Economics / India
By: Justin_John
THE PERILOUS COURSE
THE 2008 credit crisis exposed the financial
whizkids on the Wall Street who hardly had an idea on where their acts were taking the financial markets
. Years of booming markets made them complacent to risks that were building up in the system. Few saw the apocalypse that collapsed many venerable institutions.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Hoover and Bush, Interventionism Turns Crisis into Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mark_Thornton
The most basic rule of economic policy is to allow prices to adjust to market conditions. This maintains Say's Law and produces what Frédéric Bastiat called economic harmony.
Furthermore, unhampered markets minimize distortions and disruptions introduced by external forces. Most importantly, the unhampered price system minimizes the impact of the business cycle on the economy. This paper examines two historical episodes where interventionist policies turned business cycle corrections into depressions.[1]
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Tuesday, January 11, 2011
John Williams Eyes Gold as Insurance Against Hyper Inflation Armageddon / Economics / HyperInflation
By: The_Gold_Report
Stronger corporate balance sheets, tighter reins on costs and better stock performance in 2010 haven't swayed ShadowStats Editor John Williams' assertion that the bottom-bouncing economy is weaker than ever, with specters of hyperinflation and systemic financial collapse on the not-so-distant horizon. As he says in this exclusive Gold Report interview, the yellow metal is his "insurance against Armageddon"—or at least the single best asset that people can use to ride out the storm.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Following the Efficient-Markets Hypothesis into Absurdity / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Austrians in the tradition of Mises and Rothbard stress the resilience of a free-market economy, and they believe that the institution of private property — along with the profit-and-loss test — will steer resources into their most valuable niches.
However, most Austrians stop short of following Chicago School economists' advocacy of the "efficient-markets hypothesis" (EMH). In its most extreme form, the EMH becomes a caricature of itself in which asset bubbles are not just unlikely but logically impossible.
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Sunday, January 09, 2011
India reports Exports: Massive surge 36% and Current Account deficit slips to $2.5bn / Economics / India
By: Justin_John
The country’s merchandise exports reached $22.5 billion, up 36.4 per cent in December from last year, highest in last 33 months, while imports topped $25.1 billion narrowing the trade deficit to $2.6 billion in December.
A quick look at the charts speaks about the surge in exports seen in the last 3 months.
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Sunday, January 09, 2011
U.S. and Global Economic Forecast 2011, Russia and the Roots of World Inflation / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
It is time once again to throw caution and wisdom to the wind and actually make my 11th annual forecast. I have to admit this is the most stressful letter I write each year. I do at least 5-10 times more research and thinking about this issue than any other. On a positive note, this may be one of the more optimistic forecast letters I have done in a long time. But there are some asterisks, as always. We will survey the world, trying to peer through the fog of the future. There are some very interesting side trails we will want to explore. Did you know some events in Russia could have real ramifications for inflation in China, the US, and the world? I pay attention to the background details and bring them to you. So settle back as we tour the world.
Sunday, January 09, 2011
Number of Discouraged American Workers Hit Record High: QE3 = A Matter of When / Economics / Employment
By: Dian_L_Chu
The latest U.S. Labor Department data indicated that non-farm payroll added 103,000 jobs in December, which is far short of expectation, but the unemployment rate somehow managed to fall sharply to 9.4% (from 9.8% in November) far exceeding expectation.
Saturday, January 08, 2011
December Employment Report – Slow Pace of Hiring Supports Fed’s Accommodative Stance / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.4% in December vs. 9.8% in November. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low (for the expansion that ended in December 2007) is 4.4% in March 2007.
Friday, January 07, 2011
The Indian Economic Growth Story: Steady and Sure! / Economics / India
By: Justin_John
India has withstood the global crisis beyond most would have expected. Even while the rest of the world has been recovering, India and China (credibility of growth is at stake) have not only bounced back but has now started to grow at a very steady and sure rate. In fact a quick glance at S&P and Sensex performance over the last 10 years, will highlight the incredible performance of this much ignored economy.
Friday, January 07, 2011
U.S. Real GDP vs. Potential GDP – Time to Assess this Yardstick / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The U.S economy has registered six quarters of economic growth, inclusive of the projected increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter of 2010 (see Chart 1).
Friday, January 07, 2011
Will The Tea Party Congress Bring Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: John_Browne
While the markets have known for almost three months that the 2010 election delivered the House of Representatives to the tea-infused Republican Party, I did expect a greater reaction on Wall Street to the formalities of the opening sessions of Congress yesterday.
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
China Economic Outlook 2011, The Red Dragon Takes Its Next Step Forward / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
If the United States has a growth problem, China has just the opposite. The world's second-largest economy is set to grow 9-10% this year, building on its strong rebound from the global financial crisis.
Furthermore, Beijing is determined to accelerate China's transition toward a more domestically based economy, while stabilizing prices and cutting government waste.
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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Deflation Ahead / Economics / Deflation
By: Brian_Bloom
Recently, I had the privilege of watching the YouTube video below of a lecture given in Australia by Professor Niall Ferguson
In my view, except for the fact that Professor Ferguson did not even make a passing reference to the critical importance of energy in the economic stew, I think he absolutely nailed the current economic situation. He was looking at the world economy from the perspective of long term history – which I believe is most appropriate at this point in time. He is unequivocally of the view that the probabilities favour deflation. For various reasons, I agree with him.
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