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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Bring on US Debt Default, Otherwise, it's Permanent Deficits and Unemployment / Economics / US Debt

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThroughout the West, unemployment remains stubbornly high. Unemployment in these European nations ranges from 8.5% in Italy to over 20% in Spain.

For Europe as a whole, the figure is 10.3%. What is revealing is this: ever since 1995, it has been above 9% most of the time. Only in February 2008 did it fall to 7.3%. For workers under age 25, the figures are much worse. A generation of educated college graduates has become a lost generation.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

2012 Offers Few Economic Reasons for Optimism / Economics / Recession 2012

By: John_Browne

As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank monetary manipulation. From the perspective of someone who has keenly observed global economics for more than a half century, I see little reason to believe that our economic morass will soon improve. Indeed, I do not believe we will see meaningful change until the Bretton Woods era of U.S. dollar dominated paper money finally comes to an end. In other words, our current experiment in unlimited monetary expansion will continue until it explodes.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Japanese Economy Slumps, Industrial Production Falls 2.6% / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA torrent of bad news hit Japan in November. Please consider some details from the Bloomberg article Japan Factory Output Falls on Global Slump

  • Factory output fell 2.6 percent from October
  • Exports fell for the second straight month
  • Capital spending in the third quarter dropped 9.8 percent
  • The Bank of Japan Tankan quarterly index of corporate sentiment fell to minus 4 this month. A negative figure indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists
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Economics

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Economic Collapse Stealth Mode In Asia - Jim Rogers Moves To China / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn interview with Lelde Smits of Australia's Finance News Network Jim Rogers said he is proud his two children speak Mandarin so well they can ask for a Big Mac in Pekin and not get a Donald Duck flashlight or a knockoff designer T shirt instead. Rogers said that Asia is weathering the storm and told Lelde Smits he has voted with his feet and set up shop in Singapore (because air pollution is so out of sight in mainland China's cities) but feared that Asia’s going to suffer, all the same, for sure and certain, because Europe and the USA are going down the tube.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

What Happened To Economic Growth? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe magical invention of economic growth needs the magic of invention, and technological-type invention is always around and available the optimists tell us. When it isn’t, like now, doctoring the numbers and letting them doctor themselves with false overvalued monetary units "measuring" the growth that is not there will pass muster, the optimists don’t tell us. Doctoring growth that isn't also draws on productivity gains that aren't, using the same vastly overvalued money units that "measure" growth: for how many years have we had productivity gains (or claims) at 6% or more every year ? In plenty of national cases, simply inverting claimed productivity gains, and claimed rates of inflation, will give a much more honest picture of what is going on. This now longstanding and traditional doctoring of the data, both deliberate and inadvertent, extended over 10 and 15 years or more, gives us vastly different readouts for the real situation: which is bad.

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Economics

Monday, December 26, 2011

A Few Chinese Bad News Bears To Spoil A Happy New Year / Economics / China Economy

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGoldman's Jim O'Neill noted in a recent interview that the world's future prosperity depends on China's growth. While we don't totally agree with that assessment as we see China as one of the many contributory factors towards world's future, there are some recent bad news bears coming out of China that could spell troubles for markets, at least in 2012.

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Economics

Saturday, December 24, 2011

U.S. the Payroll Tax 'Holiday' Extension a Festivus Miracle for GDP? / Economics / Taxes

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn recent days many economists were preparing to lower their 2012 GDP forecasts in case Congress could not reach an agreement to extend the 2% reduction in the employee contribution to the payroll (FICA) tax. I kept getting questions on how much I was going to lower my forecast if the tax holiday were not extended. And I kept responding, 0.0%.

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Economics

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Restoring Economic Growth Is Not Possible, Invisible Mending ? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are no shortage of search engine hits with "Restore economic growth". In Europe, the eye of the storm for ever more complex and unsure, but supposedly market friendly debt control plays that finally depend on even more government borrowing, restoring economic growth always figures somewhere on the teleprompter for leading edge interviews by political deciders. The quest to retore economic growth is always cited as a goal by deciders, but they know, and we know that it isnt possible.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

China’s Stimulus Talk And Buying Silver On The Copper Dip / Economics / China Economy

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

All eyes are now on China as a source for consumer strength in the developed world.  Customs data released on December 10 tells a concerning story - China's overseas shipments are growing, but at their slowest pace since 2009. 

In November, China recorded 13.8% growth in overseas shipments from the year-ago period.  However, Chinese trade balances are beginning to turn decidedly toward an imbalance.  The balance numbers recorded a 35% plunge in China's trade surplus, enough to worry investors that European consumption is dropping dramatically in light of a debt crisis. 

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Economics

Sunday, December 18, 2011

U.S. Economy Center Cannot Hold, Where Is My Return to the Mean? / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTurning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

- The Second Coming, by William Butler Yeats (1865-1939)

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Economics

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Global Economic Crisis: The U.S. An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: LEAP

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs announced in previous GEABs, in this issue our team presents its anticipations on the changes in the United States for the period 2012-2016. This country, the epicentre of the global systemic crisis and pillar of the international system since 1945, will go through a particularly tragic in its history during these five years.

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Economics

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Understanding Unemployment, Keynesian vs. Marxist Explanations / Economics / Unemployment

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIsmael Hossein-zadeh writes: “A study of the struggle waged by the English working class reveals that, in order to oppose their workers, the employers either bring in workers from abroad or else transfer manufacture to countries where there is a cheap labor force. Given this state of affairs, if the working class wishes to continue its struggle with some chance of success, the national organisations must become international.” (Karl Marx)

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Economics

Saturday, December 17, 2011

U.S. Inflation, A Hurdle for the Next Round of Quantitative Easing? / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in November after a 0.1% drop in October. The 1.6% drop in the energy price index and the muted 0.1% increase in food prices helped to hold down the overall gain of the CPI in November. Gasoline prices continue to decline and offset higher prices of heating oil. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in November following gains of 0.1% in each of the prior two months. Higher prices for apparel (+0.6%) and medical care (+0.4%) show the relatively large gains in November. Shelter costs advanced 0.2% in November, matching the increase seen in October.

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Economics

Saturday, December 17, 2011

China Economy May Drag World Down / Economics / China Economy

By: Barry_Elias

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMy column of June 24, 2011 ("China Yield Inversion May Portend Economic Slowdown") opened with the following sentence:

“The yield on Chinese bonds are inverting at an accelerating rate. This does not portend well for the Chinese economy, and this may have negative implications globally.”

China’s contribution to global economic growth this year is nearly 40%.

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Economics

Friday, December 16, 2011

How an Economy Collapses… and How to Protect Yourself, Part 2 / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Paul_Mladjenovic

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo recap the main point from Part one of this two-part essay series, I mentioned that the internal collapse of an economy occurs when it is overburdened by too much consumption (such as debt) and that the primary engine of this over-consumption is typically a government that has grown too big to sustain. The United States is definitely trending in that direction. I used my former country, Yugoslavia, as an example of what may occur.

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