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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, August 01, 2011

The Vices of the Modern Monetary Theory / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Aftab_Singh

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA few months back, I wrote about a virtue of the MMT; namely, the way it focuses on sectoral balances. I think that this view is both interesting and useful for the contrarian investor. However, I do have some misgivings with the convictions of the typical Modern Monetary theorist. Here, I discuss some of the problems with the MMT frame of mind.

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Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Canada Surprise GDP Economic Contraction, Largest Drop in Two Years, It's Not Temporary / Economics / Canada

By: Mike_Shedlock

Lost in the US deficit battles and the pathetic US GDP statistics comes yet another surprise: Canada’s Economy Shrank 0.3% in May Posting the Largest Drop in Two Years

Canada’s gross domestic product fell in May by the most in two years due to temporary disruptions in the mining and oil and gas sector, government data showed.

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Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

U.S. Economy Operating at Stall Speed, Recession in Our Future? / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe GDP numbers for the second quarter came in, and there is no way to spin them as anything but ugly. And the revisions were worse. We simply have to take a few pages to look at them. And, as I noted last Monday in the Outside the Box, I met with some ten Senators Monday afternoon (as well as Congressmen in the morning), plus a lot of staff. Getting ten Senators in a room for 90-plus minutes is not so often done. I will report in this week's letter about our conversation and my impressions.

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Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

U.S. Q2 GDP The Numbers Don't Add Up / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleQ1 2011 GDP was revised one final time from 1.9% to 0.4% and Q2 2011 GDP the first estimate was 1.3%. Before analyzing the data I have one very simple question.

Economic growth slowed during Q2 as acknowledged by the Fed and indicated by regional Fed surveys, ISM, durable goods, etc so how could Q2 GDP be higher than Q1 GDP? That would imply the economy accelerated and clearly that has not happened. In other words just as Q1 2008 was eventually shown as the start of the great recession so will Q2 2011 in subsequent revisions.

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Economics

Sunday, July 31, 2011

U.S. Real GDP Revisions Indicate Economy Still in Recovery Phase / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the second quarter after a downwardly revised 0.4% increase in the first quarter (previously estimated to have increased 1.9%). From a year ago, real GDP advanced only 1.6%, the smallest increase in the current recovery.

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Economics

Friday, July 29, 2011

U.S. Debt Default or Credit Ratings Downgrade Could Crush the Global Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: If there's a "worst-case scenario" for this whole debt-ceiling debacle, this is it.

After studying everything that could happen due to a downgrade of the United States' top-tier AAA credit rating, and the potential default on its debt, we found a scenario that would result in forced asset sales that are so widespread that global stock-and-bond markets would plunge - and economies around the world would crash.

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Economics

Friday, July 29, 2011

U.S. Debt Ceiling Consquences, If Cooler Heads Do Not Prevail / Economics / US Debt

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Our working assumption is that legislation authorizing an increase on the ceiling on federal debt will be enacted in time for the U.S. Treasury to make all of its previously-authorized expenditures. If, however, this legislation is not passed, then the U.S. federal budget will move into balance. In the 12 months ended June 2011, the Treasury had run a cumulative budget deficit of $1.26 trillion. For the sake of argument, let's assume that the August 2011 budget deficit at an annual rate also is $1.26 trillion. At an annual rate, this is the amount that federal outlays would immediately decline. $1.26 trillion is about 8.4% of what U.S. nominal GDP was running at an annualized pace in the first quarter.

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Economics

Thursday, July 28, 2011

U.S. Businesses Appear to Have Selective Uncertainty / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

I keep hearing that what is holding U.S. businesses back from expanding and hiring is “uncertainty.” Exactly what new types of uncertainty businesses face in the current environment vs. past environments is rarely spelled out. But if, in fact, businesses are paralyzed due to uncertainty, I would not expect them to be stepping up their purchases of capital equipment. After all, capital equipment has a relatively long life. If businesses were unusually uncertain about the long-term outlook, they would be more reluctant to make longer-term commitments, which the purchase of capital equipment is. Rather, if businesses were unusually uncertain about the future, they might be more inclined to hire workers, who, after all, can be dismissed on short notice if conditions were to change suddenly.

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Economics

Thursday, July 28, 2011

U.S. Debt Limit Debate Sign of Deeper Economic Dysfunction / Economics / US Debt

By: The_Gold_Report

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShadowStats Editor John Williams advises legislators to stop fooling around with the country's credit rating. Regardless of the deal reached, he predicts that the Treasury and Fed will continue to print money to meet obligations and add liquidity to the economy. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, he explains how that will have the effect of pushing the price of gold and other commodities even higher.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Washington Had a Spending Problem / Economics / Government Spending

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBut does it have one now and through 2017? In an historical context, no. Consider Chart 1, which shows the rate of growth in the 12-month cumulative amount of total federal outlays from year-ago month. In the 12 months ended June 2011, total federal outlays are up 3.28% from 12 months ended June 2010 -well below the 6.64% median growth in this 12-month cumulative total from December 1955 through June 2011. So, Washington hardly has a spending problem now vs. history.

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Economics

Monday, July 25, 2011

The Economics of Big Cities / Economics / Social Issues

By: Robert_Murphy

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarge, densely populated urban areas put economic principles in a pressure cooker, as it were. The extremes of urban life make things evident that would not be as obvious in a small town. With the right combination of entrepreneurial drive and the rule of law, metropolitan areas are economic powerhouses.

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Economics

Saturday, July 23, 2011

European Leaders Kicking the Debt Crisis Can Down the Road / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we start with the latest version of the solution to the European Crisis, the details of which are now coming out. Then we look at the global economy, and some signs that seem to point to a softening. And then there's some data on US employment from a friend who has some thoughts about what we really need to do to get unemployment to come down. There is a lot to cover.

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Economics

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Outcome of Tax Cuts Following the 2001 Recession - Noteworthy Facts / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA) and Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) lowered taxes on personal income, dividends and capital gains.  Personal income tax rate for the highest bracket was reduced in steps from 39.6% (tax rate prior to EGTRRA) to 35% (after the JGTRRA legislation).  These changes of income tax rates had sunset provisions and were set to expire in 2010; but they were extended under the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (TRUIRJCA). 

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Economics

Saturday, July 23, 2011

U.S. Real GDP in the Economic Current Recovery, How Does it Compare? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Asha_Bangalore

The current economic recovery is eight quarters old.  The first estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter will be published on July 29.  Chart 1 is an index chart where real GDP data are set equal to 100 at the trough of each recession and real GDP for subsequent quarters are computed accordingly to enable comparisons of real GDP growth across recoveries.  For example, a reading of 104 would mean that real GDP increased 4.0% from the trough.  In 2011:Q1, the seventh quarter of economic recovery, real GDP rose 4.95% from the trough of the current recovery.  At a similar stage of economic recovery after the 2001 recession, real GDP recorded a 4.88% gain. 

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Economics

Friday, July 22, 2011

Who's Afraid of Deflation? / Economics / Deflation

By: Philipp_Bagus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen it comes to deflation, even Austrian economists disagree. In contrast to those who favor a 100 percent–reserve system and the effect such a system would have on prices, Austrian defenders of a fractional-reserve, free-banking (FRFB) system still seem to harbor a fear of price deflation.[1] Examples of this group include Steven Horwitz, George Selgin, and Lawrence H. White, who support a banking system or monetary policy that stabilizes nominal income (MV).[2] Broadly speaking, they favor an increase in the money supply if the demand to hold money (i.e., hoarding) increases. Without a corresponding increase in the money supply, an increase in the demand to hold money would cause a general fall in prices (i.e., price deflation).

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