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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Is The Government Lying To Us About Inflation? Yes! / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

In today’s Outside the Box, Gary D. Halbert (my old and very dear friend and former business partner of many years) reminds us about a few significant facts concerning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that mainstream economists and the media tend to ignore. The central question is whether the CPI is really indicative of the actual inflation rate. Not likely, says Gary, since the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which compiles the CPI, has engaged in methodological shenanigans over the past couple decades (as has been well documented by John Williams of ShadowStats, among others). The upshot of all their monkeying with the numbers is that the official rate of inflation may be two to four times lower than the actual rate (which is rather convenient if you’re a government bureaucrat trying to hold down interest costs and Social Security payments).

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Economics

Friday, March 22, 2013

Economic Collape of the Something for Nothing Societies! / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2013

By: Ty_Andros

The developed world has now become a fully operational Something-for-Nothing society. Once a Something-for-Nothing psychology has been fully implemented the majority of its citizens have become the functional equivalent of LOCUSTS!

Unable and unwilling ( they no longer have the skills to make the wages they believe they are entitled to ) to produce more than they consume and support themselves they set off the consume those that do to FEED on and SUPPORT themselves. The TAKERS or WEALTH EAT the MAKERS of WEALTH, Cannibalism of the worst sort.

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Economics

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Figuring Out Cyprus, Will the Real Unemployed Please Raise Your Hands? / Economics / Unemployment

By: John_Mauldin

This week’s letter will be a very short part of a book I am writing with Bill Dunkelberg (the Chief Economist of the National Federation of Independent Businesses) on the future of employment. It has taken longer to write than I initially anticipated, for a host of reasons, chief among which is that the future is not as obvious as I originally thought. Diving into the data has brought a few surprises. It doesn’t help that I have (probably to the frustration of Dunk, although he is way too polite to say it) changed the focus from “merely” what we need to do to create jobs (which is still an important part of the book) to what kinds of jobs will the future bring and who will get them.

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Economics

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Grant Williams's Economic Theory of Disconnectivity / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Casey_Research

Grant Williams writes: On March 14, 1879, in Ulm, a tiny town on the banks of the river Danube in the German state of Baden-Württemberg, a boy was born to a Jewish electrical engineer and his wife.

Hermann and Pauline Einstein had no idea that their first-born son would one day change the way humans look at the world around them.

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Economics

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Relationship between Current U.S Deficits, Exchange Rates and Triffin Dilemma / Economics / US Economy

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

After the Great Depression in the 1930s the state of affair of the World economy can be at best described as turbulence.  As a result of the Great Depression many countries experience a period of plummeting personal income, tax collection, exports and consumption. During that time most of the world’s economies have unstable exchange rates which also resulted in unstable world trade. Following this many countries engaged in competitive currency devaluation which resulted in the ‘beggar thy neighbour’ policies being adopted. Hence due to the intensified currency wars among nations ‘protectionist’ trade policies are also introduced.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Employers NI £2,000 Cut UK Jobs Boost - Budget 2013 Analysis / Economics / UK Tax & Budget

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne several years late has eventually got around to targeting the real engines for economic growth and employment in the UK that are small businesses as large multinationals are easily able to evade taxes on profits generated in the UK which they then pull out of the British economy and deposit in tax havens, though the tax haven of Cyprus won't be getting any new deposits any time soon.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Why China Is Tunneling a Mind-Boggling 800 Miles in 2 Years / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

Would it surprise you to discover that China is planning to add 800 miles to its subway system over the next two years? That's the distance equivalent to building a network from Dallas to Chicago in less time than the U.S. Congress can resolve a budget!

In 2015, when the infrastructure build-out is complete, China's subway track alone will be a mind-boggling 1,900 miles, according to JP Morgan.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Is Japan's Economy Heading for Endgame, Nature of Deflation / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised to boost the Japanese economy by unlimited stimulus and increased government intervention in the financial market. The Japanese economy has been bogged down by lucklustre economic growth which can be shown by the following GDP Growth chart from 1993-2013.

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Economics

Monday, March 18, 2013

Four Truths About the U.S. Economy All Investors Should Know / Economics / US Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Truth #1: At the beginning of 2008, there were 28.22 million people in the U.S. economy on food stamps. Fast-forward to 2012, and the number has increased to 46.60 million—an increase of more than 65%. (Source: United States Department of Agriculture, March 8, 2013.) The number of Americans now on food stamps represents almost 15% of the entire population in the U.S. economy right now.

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Economics

Saturday, March 16, 2013

A Long-Term Look at U.S. Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: PhilStockWorld

Doug Short writes: The March 2012 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released today puts the February year-over-year inflation rate at 1.98%, about half the 3.92% average since the end of the Second World War.

For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.

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Economics

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Profitably (& Properly) Understooding Libertarian Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: DeepCaster_LLC

Libertarians commendably focus on maximizing Economic Freedom and Individual Liberty. Who, after all, wants not to be economically and politically free? 

But there is considerable dispute even among libertarians about what freedom does, or should entail regarding a variety of crucial issues such as “free trade,” immigration, and the proper role of government.  

A profitable (and proper) understanding of Freedom is essential to maximizing Individual and Political Freedom, and to Protecting Economic Freedom and thus enhancing Wealth and Prosperity. 

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Economics

Saturday, March 16, 2013

U.S. Debt-to-GDP Ratio This Year to Surpass Greece’s 2009 “Danger” Level / Economics / US Debt

By: Profit_Confidential

The U.S. Department of the Treasury reported that the U.S. government incurred a deficit of $204 billion for the month of February 2013. So far, we are into the first five months of the government’s fiscal year (started October 1, 2012), and the U.S. government fiscal deficit has already grown by $494 billion. (Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, March 13, 2013.)

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Economics

Thursday, March 14, 2013

China Sounds Warning Bell For What’s Coming Our Way / Economics / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

Let’s wind the clock back to 2008.

The world was thought to be ending. Lehman went bust. Markets were plunging. Everyone was scared that growth was over. It was as though the global economy was grinding to a halt.

But then China’s stock market bottomed. The Chinese Government announced a massive stimulus plan to turn its economy around. And sure enough the Chinese economy took off again.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Can the U.S. Learn From Argentina's Hyper Inflation Economic Chaos? / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Mauldin

(From Cafayate, Argentina) There are some who worry whether the path that Argentina has taken to monetary ruin on multiple occasions (and that it seems intent on taking again) is one that the US may also find itself on. That worry has crossed my mind a few times, I must confess. Today we will look at Argentina more in depth. From a monetary perspective, it deserves attention. And once again there will be opportunity.

Let me jump right to the conclusion: Just as Spain is not Greece, because each chose a unique route to economic malaise, the US is not Argentina. We are perfectly capable of avoiding Argentina’s problems while cooking up ones that are all our own. But there are some worrisome and potentially instructive issues in Argentina.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Four Possible Outcomes to Italy's 5-Star Mess / Economics / Italy

By: Adrian_Ash

Alessandra Pilloni writes: Rome will have a new pope before Italy gets a new government. Good job there's no rush...

ROME has now been without a government since mid-December. Italy's politicians will only start to talk later this week about doing something about last month's failed elections. Barely a month after Benedict XVI resigned, the Catholic world will have a new pope before Italy gets a prime minister. It's lucky there is no rush.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Europe's Miracle Electric Economy, We Don't Need Gas / Economics / European Union

By: Andrew_McKillop

Germany's diplomatic and trade Missions in the US, on their Web site state that the official Energy Concept or Energiewende of 28 September 2010, and subsequent policy decisions through 2011 set a number of binding goals for the nation. As of 2011, but able to be raised afterwards, these goals include at least 35% of gross electricity supply to come from renewables by 2020, a 50% share by 2030, followed by 65% in 2040 and 80% by 2050. Final electricity demand in 2020, relative to 2008, must fall by at least 10%, with national primary energy demand cut by 80% relative to 2008, by 2050.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Why U.S. Recession 2013 Has Already Begun and What to Do About It / Economics / Recession 2013

By: Money_Morning

David Zeiler writes: Pay no attention to the new market highs or the cheerleading of government officials - recession 2013 is already here.

That's what Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder and chief operations officer for the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), is saying now.

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Economics

Monday, March 11, 2013

Unemployment Down, But February Jobs Report Not All Rosy / Economics / Unemployment

By: Money_Morning

Jeff Uscher writes: The report had some positive news, as the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, the lowest rate since December 2008.

While the preliminary numbers for February show that 236,000 new jobs were created, exceeding analyst estimates by a wide margin, the figure for January was revised down from 157,000 to 119,000. However, the December number was revised up from 196,000 to 219,000. So for the three months of December 2012-February 2013, the economy has added a total of 574,000 jobs, well above expectations.

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Economics

Monday, March 11, 2013

Deflation Coming Soon / Economics / Deflation

By: Andrew_McKillop

HOW FAR CAN THE ECONOMY DEFLATE?
One predictable whine comes from longtime George Soros partner Jim Rogers, who says we are at a "peculiar time in world history". He decries the growing uncertainty, what he calls the recklessness, of "economic recovery action" by global central bankers, and the related action by government policy makers, as world finance markets enter "unchartered waters". These waters have a growing population of sharks, including distressed asset sharks. Their food base is abundant. Distressed assets, penny-on-the-dollar deals are abundant. They are not threatened by imminent reduction - let alone by global warming - bcause the global economy is deflating.

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Economics

Monday, March 11, 2013

The Relationship Between Money and Prices / Economics / Inflation

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Money printing The quantity theory of money and its accompanying equation of exchange are generally accepted as defining the relationship between money and prices. The equation has been expressed a number of ways, always including “velocity of circulation”, which is a variable essential to balance the equation.

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