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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, December 09, 2012

Startling Look at U.S. Job Demographics by Age / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

ZeroHedge had an interesting set of charts of BLS data in his post Number Of Workers Aged 25-54 Back To April 1997 Levels.

I picked up on that theme and put together this chart of BLS data showing various age groups.

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Economics

Sunday, December 09, 2012

U.S. Real Hourly Wages and Hours Worked Analysis / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. Here is a look at two key numbers in today’s monthly employment report for November: Average Hourly Earnings and Average Weekly Hours. The government has been tracking the data for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees for decades. But coverage of Total Private Employees only dates from March 2006.

Let’s look at the broader series, which goes back far enough to show the trend since before the Great Recession. I want to look closely at a five-snapshot sequence.

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Economics

Saturday, December 08, 2012

Why the 98% Matter to the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong: President Obama is on a fiscal cliff campaign to show why middle-class America really needs the help. Of course, Republicans want the Bush-era tax cuts to also apply to the top two percent of income earners. This is the major sticking point holding up a deal.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2012

U.S. Labor Market – One Step Forward, Two Steps Back / Economics / Employment

By: Andy_Sutton

Just when you think things can’t get any more ludicrous or obscene in terms of insulting the truth, out comes the BLS with its monthly jobs numbers. I’m going to break those down in a minute. But wait! There’s much more. We’ve got the fed, which had been promising to raise rates starting in 2010, then 2011, then ’12, and now they’re all the way out in 2015. Double that for the monetization (not just asset purchases). Those programs were supposed to be exited, starting this year. Now those exit plans are going to be redrawn. I’d say at this point they should just drop the charade.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2012

Economic Depression, Time To Write Off Europe for the Next Decade? / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The EU is a morally bankrupt blind behemoth that, in a doomed attempt to survive, destroys everything around it just to keep itself standing. In that, it is hardly different from several incarnations of the 20th century politburos in Russia and China - and those are by no means the darkest comparisons that could spring to mind.

There are tons of people working in and for the EU, some of whom are smart while others are not, some who are honest and some who are just self-centred , but the apparatus has become a vortex that sucks in all of them. There many be just a small window left for Europeans to retain a grip on democracy. There's not much left. Stock markets may give the impression that things are going fine, but that is possible only because increasingly severe austerity measures are spreading rapidly, and have now reached the core, not just Greece and Spain. The EU induced illusions will keep coming fast and furious, however, until they don't. And then it will be too late for democracy.

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Economics

Friday, December 07, 2012

U.S. Household Net Worth: The ”Real” Story / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short writes: A quick glance at the complete household net worth data series in a linear chart shows a distinct bubble in net worth that peaked in Q4 2007 with a trough in Q1 2009, the quarter the equity markets bottomed. The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 26.4% above the 2009 trough but still 3.8% below the 2007 peak. The nominal Q3 net worth is up 2.7% from Q2 and up 10.4% year over year.

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Economics

Thursday, December 06, 2012

U.S. Census Bureau - Manufacturing Report / Economics / US Economy

By: Submissions

ForexAbode writes:

Summary:
October 2012 new orders for manufactured durable goods increased 0.8 percent, to $477.6 billion. Shipments rose 0.4 percent, to $482.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased 0.3 percent, to $982.9 billion. And inventories rose 0.1 percent, to $616.0 billion.

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Economics

Thursday, December 06, 2012

Finger Prints of Recession 2013, Recipe for Economic Disaster and Investor Opportunity / Economics / Recession 2013

By: Ty_Andros

The verdict is in and the man-made disaster that is creeping socialism just got a green light in the world’s largest economy! The SOMETHING for Nothing society known formally as the United States of America and controlled by what Vladimir Lenin called USEFUL IDIOTS (products of centrally controlled public schools taught the VIRTUES of socialism as beneficial) have now elevated their chosen REPRESENTATIVES as slave masters (at the point of a government GUN) to the last vestiges of the private sector that still produce more than they consume.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 05, 2012

George Osborne's Smoke and Mirrors Economic Austerity Cuts, Deficit and Debt / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne in his Autumn Statement today will announce a further smoke and mirrors call to arms for greater economic austerity for the purpose of cutting the deficit and paying down Britain's debt, despite the fact that during the past 3 years there has been no real net economic austerity as the deficit has soared back to over £120 billion pear year and public debt remains on the exact same trajectory as it was on BEFORE the last general election, which illustrates a fundamental point that neither labour nor the Conservatives actually want the deficit and debt to reduce but instead utilise debt in the support of their differing ideologies where for Labour high debt to GDP as an Keynesian excuse to expand the size of the economy through the public sector and for the Conservatives to reduce the size of the Labour voting public sector and benefits claiming voter pool via economic austerity and to expand the economy via lower taxes for the private sector.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Phony Global Economic Recovery is an Illusion / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Michael_Pento

Many investors still hope that the global economy will experience a significant rebound in 2013. I guess it is human nature to assume the optimistic position that our economic fate will turn to the upside with each new calendar.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Will the U.S. Economy Follow Brazil’s Rapid Drop in GDP Growth? / Economics / US Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: With the world economy slowing, it is possible that we could see a global recession in 2013. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth for many countries has significantly declined in the third quarter of 2012. While some countries experienced an increase in GDP growth in the first part of the year, it’s quite apparent going into the third quarter that, for most nations, the estimates were far too high.

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Economics

Monday, December 03, 2012

The Myth of Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Philipp_Bagus

Many politicians and commentators such as Paul Krugman claim that Europe's problem is austerity, i.e., there is insufficient government spending. The common argument goes like this: Due to a reduction of government spending, there is insufficient demand in the economy leading to unemployment. The unemployment makes things even worse as aggregate demand falls even more, causing a fall in government revenues and an increase in government deficits. European governments pressured by Germany (which did not learn from the supposedly fateful policies of Chancellor Heinrich Brüning) then reduce government spending even further, lowering demand by laying off public employees and cutting back on government transfers.

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Economics

Sunday, December 02, 2012

What Is the End Game? Exponential Growth in Population, Energy and Debt / Economics / Demographics

By: DK_Matai

As Helen Keller once said, "To be blind is bad, but worse is to have eyes and not to see!"  Is the greatest shortcoming of the human race our inability to understand the exponential function?  The Earth's human population reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in late 1986 and 6 billion in late 1999.  In late 2011, we crossed 7 billion people on this planet and we are projected to cross 8 billion in 2025. 

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Economics

Sunday, December 02, 2012

U.S. Recession 2013 100% Risks Follow On / Economics / Recession 2013

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short : Professor Piger updated his recession probability model that caused so much attention early November (See “Debunking 100% probability of recession“). As we forecast last month, the probability index undertook a “revision” of epic proportions as displayed below (01-Dec-12 vintage):

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Economics

Saturday, December 01, 2012

Is the U.S. Economy Already Beginning to Stumble Again? / Economics / Recession 2013

By: Sy_Harding

As it has in each of the last three years, the economic recovery in the U.S. stumbled this summer, prompting the Federal Reserve to provide another round of stimulus, QE3, in September.

For the last several months it seemed like it wasn’t needed, as subsequent economic reports for August and September indicated the economy was recovering nicely on its own.

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