Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Economists Economic Atonement / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Peter_Schiff
This Friday is Yom Kippur, the day when Jews around the world ask forgiveness for their transgressions from the year past. Rabbis remind the penitent to dwell on their sins of omission, in which they did nothing when a more thoughtful and proactive action was needed, and sins of commission, in which they actively participated in an unjust action. And while not all economists are Jewish, Gene Epstein the economics editor at Barron's, offered his thoughts on how this applies to the group.
Monday, September 29, 2014
The Japanese Deflation Myth and the Yen’s Slump / Economics / Japan Economy
By: MISES
Brendan Brown writes: The slide of the yen since late summer has brought it to a level some 40 percent lower against the euro and US dollar than just two years go. Yet still Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda warn that they have not won the battle against deflation. That caution is absurd — all the more so in view of the fact that there was no deflation in the first place.
Friday, September 26, 2014
Where’s the Economic Growth? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
In 1633 Galileo Galilei, then an old man, was tried and convicted by the Catholic Church of the heresy of believing that the earth revolved around the sun. He recanted and was forced into house arrest for the rest of his life, until 1642. Yet “The moment he [Galileo] was set at liberty, he looked up to the sky and down to the ground, and, stamping with his foot, in a contemplative mood, said, Eppur si muove, that is, still it moves, meaning the earth” (Giuseppe Baretti in his book the The Italian Library, written in 1757).
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
10 Things That Affect Your Purchasing Power / Economics / Inflation
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: This might be considered “wonkish,” but it tells the story of how middle-class purchasing power has suffered since 2007.
Recently, the Federal Reserve released the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). This tri-annual survey is a treasure trove of information that provides a snapshot into the financial life of the median American in inflation-adjusted 2013 dollars. Notice that I said “median” and not “average”… that’s important.
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Wednesday, September 24, 2014
The Poison Eating at the Heart of Macroeconomics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
Mario Draghi, in one of his latest speeches, prodded governments to ease austerity to spur aggregate demand (an oxymoron). The IMF director, Christine Lagarde, recently urged the ECB to continue its easy monetary policy until aggregate demand picks up. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, has, for years, suggested government actions to boost aggregate demand. He has in turn lectured Germany, Japan, and China on the need to encourage demand. It is sad that such economic nonsense is constantly promoted by some of the world’s most influential people, including many leading economists, and that this continues to serve as the foundation of much of contemporary macroeconomic theory.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Why Stalling Loans in Our Banking Economy is a Good Thing / Economics / Credit Crisis 2014
By: Harry_Dent
Rodney Johnson writes: Part of the story about subprime mortgages during the U.S. banking economy of the 1990s and 2000s centers on the Community Reinvestment Act — through which Congress required lending institutions lend more in poor neighborhoods.
There is a question as to how much this drove lenders to extend credit to people who couldn’t afford it.
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Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Regime Uncertainty Weighs on U.S. Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Shortly after the current Great Recession started, I wrote a Globe Asia column, “A Great Depression?” (December 2008). In it, I stressed the findings contained in Robert Higgs’ important book Depression, War and Cold War: Studies in Political Economy (Oxford University Press, 2006). Higgs concluded that, because of regime uncertainty, investors were afraid to commit funds to new projects. They simply didn’t know what President Roosevelt and the New Dealers would do next.
Sunday, September 21, 2014
Will the U.S. Economy Go Into Hibernation, Again? / Economics / US Economy
By: Investment_U
Rachel Gearhart writes: The impact of this year’s bitter winter on the economy can be seen in this week’s chart. The chart compares the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index for 2014 to the average of 2010-2013.
The index compares actual market data to market expectations.
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Wednesday, September 17, 2014
The Great Depression, World War II, And What They Really Mean / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Rubino
Nearly a century after the fact, the Great Depression remains THE object lesson for virtually every branch of economics. To monetarists the fact that the US money supply fell by nearly a third in the 1930s illustrates the need for a central bank to maintain steady money growth. To Keynesians the Depression’s depth and duration proved that capitalist systems are inherently unstable and need a big, powerful government to manage them. World War II, in this framework, saved the US economy from permanent 25% unemployment.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Emerging Markets Are Set Up for a Crisis, What’s on Your Radar Screen? / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: John_Mauldin
Toward the end of every week I begin to ponder what I should write about in the next Thoughts from the Frontline. Much of my week is spent in front of my iPad or computer, consuming as much generally random information as time and the ebb and flow of life will allow. I cannot remember a time in my life after I realized you could read and learn new things that that particular addiction has not been my constant companion.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Preparing for the Full Force of Reality / Economics / US Economy
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
The real economy is suffering and getting worse by the day. The imbalances created by giant finance will not go away, regardless of intervention. There is an odd phenomenon at work. Society is now fully accustomed to the disbelieving the gap. Yesterday, things were going well. The market went up in spite of itself. Tomorrow ought to be the same. Everything must be fine.
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Sunday, September 14, 2014
The Ethics of Entrepreneurship and Profit / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Hans-Hermann Hoppe writes: In the most fundamental sense we are all, with each of our actions, always and invariably profit-seeking entrepreneurs.
Whenever we act, we employ some physical means (things valued as goods) — at a minimum our body and its standing room, but in most cases also various other, “external” things — so as to divert the “natural” course of events (the course of events we expect to happen if we were to act differently) in order to reach some more highly valued anticipated future state of affairs instead. With every action we aim at substituting a more favorable future state of affairs for a less favorable one that would result if we were to act differently. In this sense, with every action we seek to increase our satisfaction and attain a psychic profit. “To make profits is invariably the aim sought by any action,” as Ludwig von Mises has stated it. (Mises, 1966, p. 289)
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Friday, September 12, 2014
Illusioned by the Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Europe’s economy is at a standstill. This summer was full of critical developments in the Eurozone: In June, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to move into the territory of negative real interest rates! The deposit rate, which already was at 0%, was cut to minus 0.10%. Additionally, its refinancing rate was cut from 0.25% to 0.15%, and its marginal lending facility dropped to 0.4%. This was one of a package of measures the ECB said it was considering to combat disinflation in the Eurozone and give the economy a push. Due to the continued dim outlook of the economy, the ECB further reduced the deposit rate to minus 0.20% and the refinancing rate to 0.05% in early September.
Thursday, September 11, 2014
The Myanmar Shadow / Economics / Asian Economies
By: John_Mauldin
By Grant Williams
Before we kick things off this week, I want to give you a quick update on Real Vision Television in response to a ton of emails I have received on the subject.
(If you missed my recent piece on Real Vision (Vision Quest, TTMYGH, July 7, 2014) you can read it by clicking on the link.)
Real Vision will launch on September 8th, and if you have already signed up and registered your interest, you will soon be receiving an invitation to become one of our Founder Members. The opening will be staggered to ensure that the site is robust, so don’t panic if you aren’t among the first to receive your invite. We will be rolling the red carpet out as fast as we can whilst ensuring that the heavy traffic doesn’t crash the website.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
Full Frontal Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Rubino
By now it’s an article of faith within the sound money community that most major countries have borrowed so much that they’re left with only two options: default on their debt through mass-bankruptcy and a new Great Depression, or inflate it away through stepped-up currency creation.
This is an investment thesis, since a given country’s choice will determine which asset classes rise and fall.
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Thursday, September 11, 2014
Doubling Down on Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
Friday's release of disappointing August payroll numbers should have been a jarring wake-up call warning Wall Street that the economy has been treading on thin ice. Instead the alarm clock was stuffed under the pillow and Wall Street kept sleeping. The miss was so epic in fact (the 142,000 jobs created was almost 40% below the consensus estimate) that the top analysts on Wall Street did their best to tell us that it was all just a bad dream. Mark Zandi of Moody's reacted on Squawk Box by saying "I don't believe this data." The reliably optimistic Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial told Reuters the report "sure looks like a fluke, not a trend".
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Will Europe’s Woes Hurt the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy
By: Clif_Droke
The U.S. economy has so far shown remarkable resilience in the face of several roadblocks year. It has shrugged off the threat of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, has ignored the tapering of QE, and has been generally unfazed by every other obstacle in its path, whether real or imagined. Now, however, another threat looms in the horizon and poses a much bigger threat than previous challenges. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Economic Reality of a Wealth Tax / Economics / Taxes
By: BATR
Proponents of big government, from both the left and right, share one important trait; namely, both spend their waking hours dreaming up new schemes to tax wealth. Only a blind, deaf and dumb observer of economic imbalance would deny that the massive accumulation of worldly assets into the hands of the smallest number of robber barons in all of history is at the core of most social unrest and global instability. However, adopting a Marxist outlook on the evils of the bourgeoisie simply confuses the nature of the financial magnates, while blaming the hard pressed merchant class for conducting beneficial business. Creation of tangible wealth is the greatest achievement in the uplifting and improvement of the human condition, when that stream of riches flows between and among entrepreneurs and business proprietors.
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Tuesday, September 09, 2014
No Economy For Americans / Economics / US Economy
By: Paul_Craig_Roberts
The Dow Jones stock average closed Friday at 17,137, despite the fact that the payroll jobs report was a measly 125,000 new jobs for August, an insufficient amount to keep up with the growth in the working age population.
The low 125,000 jobs figure is also inconsistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate of second quarter 2014 US GDP growth of 4.2 percent–a figure beyond the capability of the present-day US economy.
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Monday, September 08, 2014
Ten Reasons to Condemn Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Andreas Marquart writes: Inflation, defined as an expansion of the supply of unbacked money, is an elementary evil, always and everywhere that it occurs.[1] It is the ignored and core cause of numerous problems in the economy and in society, including: