Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 07, 2014
U.S. Economic Statistics Snow Job / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
Economists, investment analysts, and politicians have spent much of 2014 bemoaning the terrible economic effects of the winter of 2014. The cold and snow have been continuously blamed for the lackluster job market, disappointing retail sales, tepid business investment and, most notably, much slower than expected GDP growth. Given how optimistic many of these forecasters had been in the waning months of 2013, when the stock market was surging into record territory and the Fed had finally declared that the economy had outgrown the need for continued Quantitative Easing, the weather was an absolutely vital alibi. If not for the excuse of the bad weather, the entire narrative of a sustainable recovery would have been proven false.
Friday, June 06, 2014
Europe Resorting to Voodoo Economics to Avoid Becoming Japan / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: It’s a mixed-up crazy world, especially when it comes to figuring out economics.
Just look at European stock markets. Many of them are making new highs today.
Why is that crazy?
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Friday, June 06, 2014
Why the Economic Bust Is Inevitable According To the Austrian Business Cycle Theory / Economics / Austrian Economics
By: GoldSilverWorlds
The key of the ABCT is that economies operate in cycles, they go through ‘booms’ and ‘busts’, ‘expansions’ and ‘recessions.’ A ‘crisis’ should not come as a surprise. Austrian School economists argue that central banks don’t help in smoothing the amplitude of the cycles, but are actually the root cause of the business cycle. While some may view that the expansionary monetary policy can mitigate the adverse effects of a crisis, the Austrian School begs to differ.
Friday, June 06, 2014
The Slope Of Hope Economy And The Persistence Of History / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Faith Based Slope of Hope
Writing on the website The Slope of Hope, June 4, Tim Wright in 'The Persistence of Memory' said that: “....honestly, I don’t have visions of a group of thirty rich men sitting around a gigantic table at the top of a skyscraper, smoking cigars, chortling villainously and plotting humanity’s path. I do, however, firmly believe that the central bankers and political leaders of the largest countries were shocked at what happened late in 2008 and vowed Never Again”.
Thursday, June 05, 2014
Why Asian Economies are Faltering? Case Study : Malaysia / Economics / Asian Economies
By: Sam_Chee_Kong
Malaysia’s debt fuelled economy on steroids was the result of Bank Negara’s policy of low interest rates causing abundant availability of credit. To avert the economy from free falling credit expansion measures are taken to stabilize the economy. Economic growth as measured by the GDP is now a function of Government and private consumer spending financed by the credit expansion or put it simply ‘debts’. In the short run this might help mitigate the pain associated with a slowing economy such as a recession. Preventing a recession also means preventing the economy from performing its natural task on rebalancing such as getting rid of excesses accumulated along the way. One of the side effects of excesses is the inflating of assets prices to bubble levels. As a result we have various bubbles blown in the stock market, real estate, bonds and futures market in Malaysia.
Wednesday, June 04, 2014
Why Central Bank Stimulus Cannot Bring Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: Today every central bank on the planet is printing money by the bucket loads in an attempt to stimulate their economies to escape velocity and a sustainable recovery. They are following Keynesian dogma that increasing aggregate demand will spur an increase in employment and production. So far all that these central banks have managed to do is inflate their own balance sheets and saddle their governments with debt. But make no mistake, central banks are not about to cease their confidence in the concept of insufficient aggregate demand. In fact, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi is considering imposing negative interest rates to force money out of savings accounts and into the spending stream. Such an action is fully consistent with Keynesian dogma, so other central bankers will be impelled by the failure of their previous actions to follow suit.
Wednesday, June 04, 2014
The Federal Reserve versus Hyman Minsky / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The Fed itself has stated many times over the past years that it intends to keep interest rates low. And now it starts complaining about low volatility. It looks like Yellen et al want to have their cake and eat it too. Perhaps they should have paid a little more attention to Hyman Minsky. Who long ago wrote – paraphrased – that if and when markets are perceived as being stable, it’s that very perception will make them unstable, because stability, i.e. low volatility, will drive investors into riskier asset purchases. The Fed’s manipulation-induced ultra-low rates have achieved just that, and now they’re surprised?
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Wednesday, June 04, 2014
The Primitive Theory Of National Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014
By: Andrew_McKillop
Blasphemy Against the Holy Ghost
Marx thundered that “...with the rise of national debt-making, want of faith in the national debt takes the place of blasphemy against the Holy Ghost, which cannot be forgiven”. Not being able to speak for the Holy Ghost, we can state that dark and primitive magic was certainly in play when national debts were invented – literally ex nihilo. But that was small beer compared to what was coming.
Sunday, June 01, 2014
The Illusionary Economy Revives The Home ATM / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
In a recent article, the Wall Street Journal uncovers a big problem in the US housing market, albeit, curiously, without necessarily identifying it as a problem. It would be nice if Americans could trust their once most trusted media to give them the best possible covering of a topic, but the Wall Street Journal apparently prefers to pick the side of, well, Wall Street. The problem not presented as one is the resurgence of American homes as ATMs, of borrowing against a property’s perceived value through home equity loans or home equity lines of credit (Helocs).
Sunday, June 01, 2014
China Debt - Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
I am writing this introductory note from London during a layover on my way to Rome, and I’ll append a personal ending tonight after I finally make my way back from dinner to the hotel.
One of the few consensus ideas that I took away from the Strategic Investment Conference is that China has the potential to become a real problem. It seemed to me that almost everyone who addressed the topic was either seriously alarmed at the extent of China’s troubles or merely very worried. Perhaps it was the particular group of speakers we had, but no one was sanguine. If you recall, a few weeks back I introduced my young colleague and protégé Worth Wray to you; and his inaugural Thoughts from the Frontline focused on China, a topic on which he is well-versed, having lived and studied there. Our conversations often center on China and emerging markets (and we tend to talk and write to each other a lot). While I’m on the road, Worth is once again visiting China in this week’s letter, summing up our research and contributing his own unique style and passion. I think regular TFTF readers are going to enjoy Worth’s occasional missives and will want to see more of them over time. Now, let’s turn it over to my able young Cajun friend.
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Sunday, June 01, 2014
Decline And The Art Of No Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
The Oxymoron of Permanent Growth
One of the starkest non-surprises is that economic growth declines as well as advances. Why this should be “extraordinary” and a shock to civilization is hard to understand – for normal persons. Taking the case of Japan and the Asian Tigers, their miracle growth epochs or eras lasted about 30 – 40 years and then it was over. Taking the case of China and India, their period of extreme high annual growth lasted less than 20 years. In the case of the US and western European economies, high growth was commonplace for about 25 years.
Saturday, May 31, 2014
What To Expect From June's Major Economic & Central Bank Events / Economics / Central Banks
By: EconMatters
Since the last Employment report things have been relatively quiet on the economic and Central Bank front but all that is set to change over the next three weeks. Volatility should pick up and many of these events could be potentially market moving for certain asset classes.
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Saturday, May 31, 2014
How Inflation Helps Keep the Rich Up and the Poor Down / Economics / Inflation
By: MISES
Jörg Guido Hülsmann writes: The production of money in a free society is a matter of free association. Everybody from the miners to the owners of the mines, to the minters, and up to the customers who buy the minted coins — all benefit from the production of money. None of them violates the property rights of anybody else, because everybody is free to enter the mining and minting business, and nobody is obliged to buy the product.
Saturday, May 31, 2014
The High Cost of Minimum Wages / Economics / Wages
By: MISES
In Switzerland on May 18 there was a vote to establish a minimum wage rate at a world record $25 an hour: the vote was rejected overwhelmingly as an estimated 76 percent voted against it.
As USA Today reported, there have been strong opinions in both directions. Luisa Almeida, a Portuguese immigrant working in Switzerland, said that she’s against the increase because according to her,“if my employer had to pay me more money, he wouldn’t be able to keep me on and I’d lose the job.” Furthermore, even though Switzerland does not currently have any laws regarding minimum wage rates, Luisa said she already makes more than she would at home in Portugal (where minimum wage is $4.19 per hour).
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Friday, May 30, 2014
The Pretty Girl and the US Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
There’s a persistent story that says (though I don’t think I can confirm it) that a pretty girl prefers to surround herself with less pretty girls – all in the eye of the beholder – in order to look prettier. After seeing yesterday’s -1% (-2% if you include Obamacare) US GDP ungrowth number, a fair segment of the financial press and punditry took a page out of the pretty girl playbook and ran with it. What should really be a deeply disturbing number in a 5 year old recovery (which is about 100 years in human terms) that has cost Americans trillions upon trillions in stimulus measures, is easily turned, without batting an eye, into a solid positive. The awful Q1 print, we are now told, serves to make Q2 look that much better.
Friday, May 30, 2014
Crony Capitalism - Crony Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andrew_McKillop
Tuesday Markets and IMF Forecasts
Almost any Tuesday, financial markets are up. Yes it happens but no, the “Tuesday blip” is pure market manipulation and nothing whatsoever to do with the real economy. Likewise any IMF forecast of economic growth, for any country in the world is always revised down from the previous forecast, but always shows a magnificent recovery “coming soon”.
Friday, May 30, 2014
US Economy GDP Even Worse Than It Looks, Again / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Rubino
As expected, the US revised the most recent quarter’s GDP from barely positive to sharply negative today. But once again the true extent of the problem was hidden by some statistical sleight of hand, in this case wildly-optimistic inflation assumptions.
Here’s an excerpt from the Consumer Metrics Institute’s just-published analysis:
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Friday, May 30, 2014
The U.S. Jobs Market is Gaining Traction / Economics / Employment
By: EconMatters
Claims Data
The Jobless claims data came out on Thursday and the trend is still in place and bodes well for the May Employment Report coming out next Friday as jobless claims fell sharply in the May 24 week, down 27,000 to 300,000. The 4-week average is down a significant 11,250 to a new recovery low of 311,500. Continuing claims are also down, falling 17,000 in data for the May 17 week to a new recovery low of 2.631 million. The 4-week average is down 33,000 to 2.655 million, also a recovery low. The unemployment rate for insured workers, also at a recovery low, came in at 2.0 percent. Notice a pattern here, new recovery low, new recovery low, and new recovery low.
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Friday, May 30, 2014
Fed's Lacker Warns U.S. Inflation Is Accelerating / Economics / Inflation
By: Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker told Bloomberg Radio host Kathleen Hays on "The Hays Advantage" today that inflation may not need to be too fast before the Fed raises the main interest rate. Lacker said, "I don't see us having to wait until inflation is actually getting to a place we don't like."
Lacker said, "We've seen inflation bottom out; I think it's pretty conclusive it's bottomed out in the last couple of quarters. And there's some tentative signs that a move back towards, a gradual move back towards 2 percent is in train, and I'm hopeful that that will play out over the year."
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Thursday, May 29, 2014
U.S. Economic Growth BEA Revised GDP Sharply Lower to -1% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Sharply Downward to Outright Contraction at Nearly a 1% Annual Rate: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was contracting at a -0.99% annualized rate. When compared to prior quarters, the new measurement is down over 3.6% from the 2.64% growth rate reported for the 4th quarter of 2013, and it is now more than 5% lower than the 4.19% reported for the 3rd quarter of 2013.