Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 23, 2015
Debt and Deflation: Three Financial Forecasts - There's More Than Falling Prices / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video. Join Elliott Wave International's free State of the U.S. Markets online conference to get prepared for the major moves in U.S. stocks, commodities, gold, USD and more for 2015 and beyond. Register now and get instant access to a free video presentation from market legend Robert Prechter and regular email updates with insights from our most recent publications and presentations from our key analysts.
Thursday, January 22, 2015
The Eurozone and the Beauty of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: GoldSilverWorlds
The Eurozone has been hovering around a 1% inflation rate, getting closer to zero during 2014, nothing close of the ambitious 2% benchmark set by central banks. Any small downward adjustment in the inflation rate will put it in the negative territory, allowing for prices to spiral downward. The West is genuinely fearful of deflation. Headlines in leading papers were very strong in reflecting this fear, describing deflation as “the world’s biggest economic problem”, or the “nightmare” that stalks Europe that will lead to its “descent” and collapse.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
Deflation Bonanza! And the Fool's Mission to Stop It / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Of all the widely believed but patently false economic beliefs is the absurd notion that falling consumer prices are bad for the economy and something must be done about them.
The recent move in the Swiss franc puts a spotlight on the issue. For example, on Sunday, in Swiss Peg Removal: Did Anyone Win? I commented ...
One widely recognized "big loser" is the tourism industry. For sure, hotel prices in Switzerland rose as much as 40% overnight compared to prices elsewhere.Read full article... Read full article...But Swiss grocery shoppers buying food imports from France, Spain, and the rest of Europe benefit mightily.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
U.S. Retail Sales Post Huge Downward Surprise, Economic Recovery Finally Over / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
So much for those allegedly strong Christmas sales. In fact, sales of nearly everything were down in the today's Commerce Department Retail Sales Report for December 2014.
Retail sales were down 0.9% compared to November vs. economist expectations of a 0.1% decrease. November was revised from +0.7 percent to +0.4 percent.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
The Fed Reality Trumps Rhetoric / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MISES
Shawn Ritenour writes: Throughout the existence of the Fed, its officers and intellectual supporters understandably asserted that the government’s movement toward central banking was a most beneficial evolution. In a 1948 issue of The Federal Reserve Bulletin, for example, Fed Chairman Thomas B. McCabe asserted that money production could not manage itself, so we need a central bank such as the Fed that acts for the public interest. Nearly three decades later, the venerable Arthur Burns claimed that the basic assets of the Fed are concern for the general welfare, moral integrity, respect for tested knowledge, and independence of thought.
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
UK CPI Inflation Smoke and Mirrors Deflation Warning, Inflation Mega-trend is Exponential / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The official CPI measure for UK Inflation fell to just 0.5% in December with the more recognised RPI falling by 0.4% to 1.6% prompting the mainstream press to turn it's Eye of Sauron onto Inflation as the topic of the day, usually leading with commonsense reporting of the positives of low inflation such as falling energy and fuel costs and more disposable earnings for Britains wages slaves after having struggled for over 6 years with stagnating and even falling real terms wages. Though the media reports soon conclude with a lengthy explanation by an academic economist of why deflation is very, very, very bad in that it could trigger a downward economic death spiral as consumers put off buying goods and services in anticipation of lower future prices and hence the economy enters into an deflationary spiral of falling demand and output as occurred during the 1930's and for a few months into Mid 2009.
Monday, January 12, 2015
Enjoy the Ride on the Inflation/Deflation Rollercoaster / Economics / Deflation
By: Michael_Pento
Politicians and central bankers are desperately trying to convince investors that the economy has returned to what they deem as a “pre-crisis normality”. But the truth is the global economy has never been in a more fragile condition. In an example of just how precarious the Fed-engineered asset bubbles have become, all of the 2014 U.S. equity market gains were wiped out by just a few really bad trading days in October.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2015
2015: The Year of the Global Economic Slump? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Alasdair_Macleod
2014 ended with two ominous developments: the strength of the US dollar and a collapse in key commodity prices. It is tempting to view both events as one, but the continuing fall in oil prices through December reveals they are sequential: first there was a greater preference for dollars compared with other currencies and this still persists, followed by a developing preference for all but the weakest currencies at the expense of raw materials and energy. These are two steps on a path that should logically lead to a global slump.
Monday, January 05, 2015
Sayonara Global Economy - As Goes Japan, So Goes the World / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: James_Quinn
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." - Ludwig von Mises
The surreal nature of this world as we enter 2015 feels like being trapped in a Fellini movie. The .1% party like it's 1999, central bankers not only don't take away the punch bowl - they spike it with 200% grain alcohol, the purveyors of propaganda in the mainstream media encourage the party to reach Caligula orgy levels, the captured political class and their government apparatchiks propagate manipulated and massaged economic data to convince the masses their standard of living isn't really deteriorating, and the entire facade is supposedly validated by all-time highs in the stock market. It's nothing but mass delusion perpetuated by the issuance of prodigious amounts of debt by central bankers around the globe. And nowhere has the obliteration of a currency through money printing been more flagrant than in the land of the setting sun - Japan. The leaders of this former economic juggernaut have chosen to commit hari-kari on behalf of the Japanese people, while enriching the elite, insiders, bankers, and their global banking co-conspirators.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 05, 2015
Weak CNY + Low Wages + Ultra Low Interest Rates = Deflationary Pressures 2015 / Economics / Deflation
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Deflation will be the dominating theme of 2015. Deflation occurs when prices of production factors (wages and interest rates) fall to the extent of limiting labour and capital from drawing higher prices. The culprit to these conditions is typically an excess supply of labour and capital to the extent that wages and interest rates weaken substantially until they draw sufficient demand to the point of stabilising their price.
Monday, January 05, 2015
Why the World Needs the US Economy to Struggle in 2015 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
The headlines this morning talk about the US dollar hitting an 11-year high. I have been saying for years that the dollar is going to go higher than anyone can imagine. This trade is just in the early innings. And the repercussions will be dramatic, not only for emerging markets that have financed projects in dollars, but also for commodities and energy, gold, and a variety of other investments. The world is at the doorstep of a new era of volatility and currency wars.
Sunday, January 04, 2015
The "Dog-Eat-Dog" Economic Delusion / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Gary Galles writes: When people want to add extra “oomph” to negative depictions of self-owners acting without coercion — that is, market competition under capitalism — they turn to name-calling. One of the most effective forms is describing such competition as dog-eat-dog. When that characterization is accepted, the mountain of evidence in favor of voluntary social coordination can be dismissed on the grounds that it involves a vicious and ugly process so harmful to people that it outweighs any benefits.
Friday, January 02, 2015
How Reducing GDP Increases Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Joseph_T_Salerno
Recently, the Financial Times published an article containing charts displaying the correlation between government spending and real GDP growth.1 Based on these correlations, the author of the article, Matthew Klein, comments: “It’s no secret that spending cuts (and tax hikes) have retarded America’s growth for the past four years.” He goes on to argue that from mid-2010 to mid-2011, the reduction in government spending in the US shaved 0.76 percent off of the economic growth rate. Klein conjectures that this slowdown in the growth rate caused a level of real GDP today that is 1.2 percent less than it would have been in the absence of this exercise in “austerity.” He also points out that since 2012 almost all of the depressive effect on real GDP growth of government austerity was the result of the reduction in military spending. While some of the reduction was beneficial, Klein opines, “some of it represents a self-inflicted wound.” Indeed it may represent a self-inflicted wound on the Federal government, but in that case it benefits the private economy.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Government Spending Does Not Help the Economy / Economics / Government Spending
By: Frank_Shostak
Some economists such as Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman hold that during an economic slump it is the duty of the government to run large budget deficits in order to keep the economy going. On this score — given that from 2011 to 2014 the rate of growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) hovered at around 2 percent — many experts are of the view that the budget deficit, which stood at $483 billion in 2014, wasn’t large enough.
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Japan Is Writing History As A Prime Boom And Bust Economic Case / Economics / Japan Economy
By: GoldSilverWorlds
Recently, we wrote a paper about the dynamics behind the boom and bust cycles, based on the view of the Austrian School (the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, or ABCT). The key takeaway was that central banks don’t help in smoothing the amplitude of the cycles, but rather are the cause of cycles.
Business cycles are a direct result of excessive credit flow into the market, facilitated by an intentionally low interest rate set by the government.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
The Truth Behind U.S. 5% GDP Economic Growth / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Sit down before you read this.
It's going to make your head spin and, worse, change the way you think about what's real in America.
Christmas came early this year, for the market that is, by way of a gift from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Will Cheap Crude Oil Bail Out the Consumer? / Economics / US Economy
By: Michael_Pento
Analysts on every financial news network are screaming about how the lower oil and gas prices will spur on the U.S. consumer and lead to a stronger economy. It is true that total retail sales rose 0.7 percent in November, beating analysts' expectations of 0.4 percent. And the Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan survey of consumers saw its December 2014 "preliminary index of consumer sentiment" soaring to 93.8--well above last month's 88.8 reading. Yet, despite this, global markets are throwing off many deflationary signals that should not be ignored.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 27, 2014
What’s Really Going on Inside the Latest GDP Number / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Sit down before you read this.
It’s going to make your head spin and, worse, change the way you think about what’s real in America.
Christmas came early this year, for the market that is, by way of a gift from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 25, 2014
A Capitalist Christmas / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Dale Steinreich writes: Halloween has a socialist tenor. Menacing figures arrive at your door uninvited, demand your property, and threaten to perform an unspecified "trick" if you don't fork over. That's the way the government works in a nutshell.
Thanksgiving has been reinterpreted as the white man, after burning, raping, and pillaging the noble Indian, trying to make amends with a cheap turkey dinner. New Year's can be ruined as the beginning of a new tax year, and the knowledge that the next five or six months will be spent working for the government.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Correcting Scrooge’s Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Ryan McMaken writes: As Charles Dickens himself admits, Ebenezer Scrooge is a thoroughly peaceful man, guilty of no true crime, who has robbed no one. Therefore, we must conclude that his wealth is a sign of his ability to please at least some people, and as Michael Levin notes: “Dickens doesn't mention Scrooge's satisfied customers, but there must have been plenty of them for Scrooge to have gotten so rich.”
But as he is a person with bad manners and a disagreeable personality, many have conflated Scrooge’s personality traits with his business practices, although the two are unrelated phenomena. As a miser and businessman, Scrooge provides numerous valuable services to the community including, as Walter Block has shown, driving down prices and making liquidity available to those who, unlike the wrongly maligned misers, have been either unwilling or unable to save in comparable amounts.
Read full article... Read full article...