Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Discounting Events Big Picture - FEEDING THE BEAST! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the first excerpt from my extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast right into the end of 2023, well beyond the scope of what I had originally planned to be a 1 year trend forecast. Yes I posted part 2 before part 1 so that my Patrons gained immediate access to my trend forecast rather than have to wait a few days for that which they ultimately seek. This is the problem with mega-pieces of analysis in the time needed to proof read, error correct and edit so that hopefully the article makes sense to others, but still mistakes can happen such as the recent Bull Trap / Bear Trap saga illustrated. So multiple time consuming proof readings are necessary so as to whittle down the number of errors and to ensure the text matches what I meant for it to say.
And before we get started, the world took another baby step towards Czar Putin sending nukes flying as the Ukrainians apparently fired a missile at the bridge that they don't have access to,That's if the Russian tactical nukes actually work given how rubbish the Russian Army has turned out to be, as the war that was supposed be over within days of invasion instead drags on building the pressure keeps on Putin as his little fat fingers inch closer towards pressing the nuclear button.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Why Now 'Is a Great Time To Load up on Silver and Silver Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month and 1-year charts to tell you why he believes it is a good time to load up on this precious metal.
Silver has three irresistible attributes at this time, one is that it is very cheap historically, especially when you factor in mounting inflation in recent times. Another is that, in common with metals generally, it looks set to enter a robust bull market as the dollar breaks down into a severe bear market.
The arguments relating to why the dollar looks set to break down have been set out in the parallel Gold Market update, as have the other circumstantial factors supportive of a rising silver price, such as the upside breakouts by copper and oil, so they will not be repeated here.
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Thursday, November 10, 2022
Stock Market Tight CPI Race / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 invalidated the key bull flag thesis laid out in yesterday‘s chart section, and both 3,815 and low 3,770s supports gave way. I think markets are positioning for too hot CPI beating expectations, in what results in a boat inordinately tilted the risk-off way, positioned for still accelerating inflation beyond the consensus 7.9% YoY. True, I‘m looking for a sticky figure likewise, but would be happy about 8.1% that still has the potential to generate some relief for risk-on assets.
In such a tight trading range pre-CPI, it‘s key to think in terms of upside and downside risks with their probabilities and advance clues – those to the upside on the CPI release prevail, no matter that I‘m not wildly optimistic about Nov, and I refuse the notion of Fed pivot or even pause as being anyhow near, not even just a couple of months away, no. This is what it means for the short-term S&P 500 path. Crucially, I‘m looking for a bright Dec, and not a great Nov monthly candle. As for today, these bullish cues simply can‘t be ignored in delivering a surprise to the sellers.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
RECESSIONS 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In terms of economic activity of all the major economies the US is the most robust so Recession delayed, which may never materialise. Meanwhile the rest of the world, especially Europe is scrambling to counter soaring energy bills and economic stagnation.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
GBPUSD 7 Charts to Help You Catch the Next Move / Currencies / British Pound
By: EWI
Hi,
You're invited to a free forex webinar!
Now that the British pound has almost hit parity with the U.S. dollar, forex traders everywhere are wondering what's next.
Our friends at Elliott Wave International are hosting a live webinar to answer the question. Join EWI's Senior Currency Strategist, Michael Madden, on November 10th at 12 PM Eastern/NY time. He'll show you 7+ eye-opening charts that highlight where GBP has been -- going back all the way to the late 1700s! -- how it got to where it is today, and, most importantly, what Elliott waves suggest next for Cable.
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Wednesday, November 09, 2022
What the USDX Shows Will Happen to Crude Oil Price Soon / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
Less than a month from now – on December 5 – an embargo on maritime exports of Russian crude oil to the European Union will come into force, as I explained in my last article.
As a result, global oil supply is expected to tighten significantly, with Russia being the world’s largest exporter of oil and fuels.
Therefore, energy markets are bracing for turbulence, as they may face a new storm of volatility.
On the macroeconomic view, the US Dollar Currency Index – still weakening against a basket of major currencies – starts looking down from the balcony to revisit some lower floors:
Wednesday, November 09, 2022
Have We Begun A 20-Year Stocks Bear Market Already? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
Every week that I publish an article on the stock market, I attempt to show you some very glaring issues as to how the market presented to you by analysts and news reporters alike. Most of them will look at the market action, review the news, and then attribute a move in the market based upon a recent news event or economic report. And, if you read it carefully, some of it does not even make sense. Let me show you an example that I read this past week:
"Hong Kong stocks up 3% in Asia session as private survey shows China's factory activity contracted" – CNBC (The headline was changed by CNBC since originally published)
Read that very carefully. Then ask yourself if a contraction in factory activity is a “bullish” indication? Then it must lead you to the question as to how can the market rally in the face of such bearish news? Well, obviously, the market does not really care, does it?
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What the US Presidential Election Cycle Predicts for the Stock Market 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
There's a s a 100% probability that stocks will be higher than where they end in October. Whilst the average gain is 15%, the spread tends to be quite large in the range of +10% to +15% which therefore suggests that 2023 will be an up year for stocks. In fact we could see a powerful pre-emptive rally ahead of the Mid-terms from the current state of extreme pessimism. as illustrated by the MACD and sentiment indicator,
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What Did the US Dollar Have to Do With Gold’s Nov 7th Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks’ prices soared on Friday. Let’s see if the dollar may have had something to do with this movement.
Very little happened in the precious metals market yesterday, and what I wrote and said yesterday remains up-to-date.
I got a request to comment on the USD Index (and its link with gold), and I’ll be happy to deliver.
Tuesday, November 08, 2022
The Fed Induced Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Dan_Steinbock
From early 2020 to early 2021, the Fed funds rate had been at 0.25%. Though the inflation rate in the US slowed for the third month to 8.2% in September 2022, it remained above market forecasts.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What the US Presidential Cycle Predicts for the Stock Market Into 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is what I concluded a year ago in my September 2021 (Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022) analysis -
So the election year cycle favours a strong up year as Uncle Biden prints plenty of dollars for everyone to party, which is basically what we are experiencing. Though next year that Democrat performance slumps to just +0.6%! Which suggests this rally is a time to take profits and de risk, because 2022 according to the Presidential cycle could be weak!
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Monday, November 07, 2022
UK Economy and British Pound GBP Trend Forecast / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The big problem is this that as the Dollar rises investors SELL their domestic currency for dollar assets which is what all those outside of the US do when they invest in US stocks and other assets which drives down currencies such as sterling in a feedback loop, as a weaker currency tends to be accompanied by weaker economic fundamentals i.e. higher interest rates because there is less demand for domestic bonds and inflation rises because the cost of imports go up which feeds through to more selling of sterling for dollar assets in attempts to escape the falling currency which is where many outside of the US find themselves today, as my earlier example of the US stocks bear market in GBP illustrate. The consequences is that the US can bring inflation umder control whilst there's fat chance of the UK bringing inflation under control with a freefalling currency and given Britains perpetual trade deficit the odds of an significant sterling recovery is pretty slim.
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Monday, November 07, 2022
Powell May Be Planning a Post-Election Fed Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) took a dive last Friday following a middling jobs report. Could the move be the start of a bigger breakdown?
The DXY, a measure of the dollar’s relative strength versus a basket of foreign currencies, peaked in late September. Since then it has fallen into a sideways trading range, failing to make new highs despite another jumbo rate hike by the Federal Reserve last week.
Currency traders may be looking ahead – specifically to the likelihood of a U.S. economic downturn in 2023. The potential of another housing-led Great Financial Crisis also looms.
Monday, November 07, 2022
Stock Market Bullish Catalyst / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 volatile session Friday ended on a bright note, but the short-term clouds aren‘t over till Treasury yields stabilize. Actually given the heavy dollar downswing, stocks could have done a lot better – and I mean especially those multinationals with a high ratio of foreign earnings. Tech though merely complied with the almost obligatory upswing – it‘s the formerly leading $FAANG stocks that are still most vulnerable, and especially so when the year end tax loss selling kicks in in the final two weeks of December. An underperformer, simply put.
For now, markets were lifted by the ongoing speculation about possible China‘s zero covid policies easing, and that concerns especially those related stocks such as BABA or real assets. If I were to pick a single best thing to have happened Friday, it would be the rise in yield spreads on a reasonably positive advance-decline line move.
Now, let‘s look at the headline reversal – once the existing China policies were confirmed to be maintained, risk-off was expected to raise its head again, yet didn‘t get too far. Already before the open, we‘re trading above my 3,780s level marking the daily bias as either bullish above, or bearish (consolidation only unless confirmed by outside markets) below. Cryptos are likely to confirm limited downside potential today if you look at Bitcoin at $20,700 currently (lower knot in the making).
Sunday, November 06, 2022
US Dollar Strength Implications for Global Economies / Economics / Global Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US Dollar Big Picture
Ultimately the fate of the dollar bull market is to spike in a blow off top and then collapse in spectacular style, probably at a faster pace then it is currently going higher.
Now don't take this chart as a literal trend forecast as I don't have the time to undertake such a study right now but it is a rough picture of what I have in mind of how the dollar trend could play out. There will be plenty of time to define a forecast trend pattern over the coming years.
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
Yield Curve Flashes Recession Alert! Better Times for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The key yield curve has inverted, shouting loudly that a recession is coming - and with it, better times for gold.I activated the high-degree recession alert! I’ve been writing about the downturn for some time, but in October, another important indicator flashed a red light. As you can see on the chart below, the key yield curve has inverted.
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
The 78 Year Interest Rate Cycle - Why Investors in U.S. Treasuries Face Major Risk / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
Rising rates will be "disastrous" for governments, other debtors and creditors
The market for U.S. Treasuries is the biggest bond market in the world, and it appears that potentially big trouble may be afoot.
Earlier this month, none other than the U.S. Treasury Secretary herself (Janet Yellen) acknowledged ...
... "a loss of adequate liquidity in the [U.S. government debt] market."
Then, in a statement last week, Bank of America strategists expressed concerns about ...
... "large scale forced selling [of U.S. Treasuries]."
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
How to Trade and Earn on CS:GO / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Sumeet_Manhas
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Sunday, November 06, 2022
Another Jumbo Rate Hike, Another Decline in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Mp> The Fed delivered another 75-basis points hike. Gold didn’t like the FOMC meeting and declined further.November’s FOMC gathering is behind us. It was quite boring. You know, another meeting, another 75-basis points hike…
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to -3-1/4 to 4 percent.
The Fed raised interest rates by that much for the fourth time in a row. It’s quite impressive, given that in the last tightening cycle, they increased the rates only in 25-basis point moves. As a result, the target range for the federal funds rate is now at 3.75-4.0%, the highest level since early 2008, as the chart below shows. Thus, we can say that the interest rates have finally normalized after the Great Recession! Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 04, 2022
US Dollar Big Picture / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ultimately the fate of the dollar bull market is to spike in a blow off top and then collapse in spectacular style, probably at a faster pace then it is currently going higher.
Now don't take this chart as a literal trend forecast as I don't have the time to undertake such a study right now but it is a rough picture of what I have in mind of how the dollar trend could play out. There will be plenty of time to define a forecast trend pattern over the coming years.
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