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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Saudi Arabia Potential DOOMSDAY Oil Market BLACK SWAN! / Commodities / Saudi Arabia

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yes here's another potential black swan brewing in the background as the world continues to reel from the impact of high oil prices with the blame firmly being placed at the feet of Czar Putin, so I trundled along to take a look under the hood of the oil market and I noticed something strange that could result in an oil market DOOMSDAY Black Swan event!

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Stock Market Smashing Fed Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 turned decisively lower, with only a very brief spike that got reversed within an hour. No room for bullish misinterpretation, Powell didn‘t say really anything that could feed buy the dip sentiment – he delivered. Treasuries are getting accustomed to the soft landing not turning out so soft in the future actually – yields at the long end of the curve have finally turned down while Fed tightening keeps being reflected on the short end, and junk bonds are suffering.

In all the risk-off, the dollar was unable to hold on to sharp gains both yesterday and today, and together with the crypto premarket upswing and real asset resiliency, this points to a reprieve in paper asset selling later this week. SPX 3,825 is the key level to watch today. I like the message commodities and precious metals are sending here – once it gets accompanied by miners and oil sector stocks, things would get brighter, but we are not there yet. Suffice to say that sharp downside is being decisively rejected.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Will Gold Survive Another Jumbo Rate Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The key FOMC meeting ends soon. One thing is certain: after this event, the gold market won’t be the same.

The Fed’s Projection Will Be Key for Gold

Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seat and fasten your seat belt, as we’re approaching the FOMC meeting and there could be some turbulence! Actually, gold has already entered an area of turbulence and has declined below the psychologically important level of $1,700. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has declined from $1,726 last week to the current level of $1,664, in a response to the strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Fed.
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

STOCKS BEAR MARKETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Stocks Bear Market Accumulation Strategy / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My strategy for this bear market from the outset has been be to accumulate during a volatile trend to a probable Dow target of 29k to 30k where I settled on my best guess of 29.6k, by late August. In the course of which I was expecting volatile swings of between 15% to 30% in either direction that would allow me to BUY big during the DIPs and then SELL a portion of what I bought during the bear market rallies, as well as selective shorting. Unfortunately this bear market has tuned out to be LESS volatile than what I was expecting i.e. swings higher of 9% are just not enough for any significant trimming of positions as the table illustrates.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

7 Ways to Improve Financial Literacy for Students / Personal_Finance / Student Finances

By: Sumeet_Manhas

What student doesn’t struggle with their finances at some point? After all, it’s your first time living truly on your own. You’re in charge of paying your rent and bills, shopping for groceries, and managing your bank account. And, you’re probably making a living yourself, too. All of those are firsts for you!

So, you might be under the impression your hard-earned money just vaporizes within a week after you get your paycheck. Or, you might fail to avoid going into debt just to pay all of your bills. Whatever it is, you surely need to boost your financial literacy and management skills.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Why Slot Machines Are in High Demand Among Experienced Players / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Slots are obviously the most common casino game types. Colourful gameplay and convenient mechanics attract millions of players, while the variety of gaming solutions on the market suits even the pickiest users. So, what are the main reasons why gamblers adore slot machines?

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Politics

Monday, September 19, 2022

China Could Deliver the MOTHER of ALL BLACK SWAN's! / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Continuing the trend trajectory of China's collapsing insane ponzi property market that is triggering bank runs and CCP crackdowns including the deployment of tanks to meet protesting bank customers who are systematically having their lifetime savings stolen, converted from bank deposits into risky investments in bankrupt developers, then this trend towards financial collapse could result in the mother of all Black Swan events that is not on anyone's radar which is that Chairman Xi Mao Jinping literally presses the RESET button in a new GREAT LEAP BACKWARDS! THAT CHINA COULD ONCE MORE TURN FULL BLOWN COMMUNIST! The slaves got a taste of CCP capitalism which they then erased ALL of the masses hard earned wealth on the click of a mouse button.

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InvestorEducation

Monday, September 19, 2022

STOCKS BEAR MAKRETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.

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Currencies

Monday, September 19, 2022

How Much Longer Can the US Dollar Trade Last? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Richard_Mills

This year has seen a correction in the gold price, commensurate with rising interest rates, and the spectre of more to come. The precious metal has also been hammered by a strong US dollar, which is negatively correlated to the gold price.

Spot gold has fallen from about $1,800 an ounce at the start of the year, to $1,675 currently, a drop of 7.4%. On Thursday, Sept. 15, gold plunged to its lower level since April, 2020, on expectations of a 0.75% interest rate increase next week by the Federal Reserve.

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Commodities

Monday, September 19, 2022

Gold Bleeding, Seasonal Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has sure been a four-letter word lately, suffering one of its worst bull summers.  The primary culprit was heavy gold-futures selling on a parabolic US-dollar surge fueled by extreme Fed hawkishness.  But the resulting gold technical damage really disheartened investors, spawning additional relentless selling from them.  This investment bleeding has certainly exacerbated gold’s downside, but its days are numbered.

With inflation raging in its biggest super-spike since the 1970s, gold should be soaring today.  Instead it has been bludgeoned 14.3% lower between mid-April to late July, defying long precedent.  And at the mid-week data cutoff for this essay, gold had again been pummeled right back to those deep summer lows.  Technically gold looks pretty broken, which has whipped up bearish sentiment to suffocating extremes.

Gold was trading near $1,977 in mid-April just before the US Dollar Index started rocketing vertically.  In the past five months starting then, US headline CPI inflation has run red-hot blasting up 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%, and 8.3% year-over-year!  That high-water June print was the worst witnessed since way back in November 1981, a 40.6-year high!  It’s hard to imagine a more-irrational backdrop for a major gold selloff.

Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s.  In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974.  Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher!  During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980.  Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!

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Politics

Sunday, September 18, 2022

Jumping the Queue to See the Queen Lying in State at Westminister Like at Alton Towers / Politics / Social Issues

By: N_Walayat

The Queen is lying in state, and her subjects have been queuing for as long as 24 hours to give their final respects to Britians longest reigning monarch.

Britian is said to be a nation of quers. Whilst that may be true for most, the younger iphone generation tend to be a nation of queue jumpers, as the Queens queue brings back memeories of the euques at Alton Tower at the height of the pandemic during 20201, when the vaccines were still yet to be jabbed into most peoples arms.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 16, 2022

Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!

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Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2022

Inflation Is Hotter Than Expected, Gold Price Colder Than Hoped / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The annual CPI decelerated in August but came in higher than expected. Bets on a more hawkish Fed increased, while in the case of gold, they decreased.

Inflation stayed hot in August. Unbelievable! At least for the majority of pundits who expected softer inflation. However, I’m not surprised, as I’ve repeated many times that “inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time.” But let’s stop bragging – and start digging into the recent CPI report.

The CPI increased 0.1% in August after being flat in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn’t seem to be a huge increase, but let’s note that it occurred despite a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. Without plunging gas prices, inflation would be much higher because of the broad-based monthly item increase.
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InvestorEducation

Friday, September 16, 2022

Learn Elliott Wave Theory - FREE 1 Hour Course / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Hi,

Our friends at Elliott Wave International are offering a complimentary course on how to 1) spot an Elliott wave pattern on a price chart, and 2) develop a solid trading plan to take advantage of it.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Trend Forecast Sept to Dec 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Bearish Signals Remain for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

After the bearish progress, oil prices slipped slightly as worries about the global growth outlook overtook fears about the supply shortage.

Macroeconomics

On the macroeconomic view, the greenback found support on its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) at the beginning of the week before resuming its rally upward and approaching its monthly highs of $110-110.50. Will the quarterly R3 pivot ($115) be reached anytime soon, or will the $110.50 level be left as its two-decade high?

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Politics

Thursday, September 15, 2022

New Wolrd Order and CRISIS / Politics / New World Order

By: Raymond_Matison

It was back in 2006 that the foreign ministries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China first met to consider improved economic ties.  Their dissatisfaction with the inability to gain increased representation at the IMF, reflecting their increasing economic contribution to the world economy, their concern - even at that time - for a stable new reserve currency, and inability to otherwise reform the IMF, led them to form what became known as the BRIC organization.  With the invitation to South America to join their alliance, they became known as the BRICS nations.

In 2015, this author posted an article entitled BRICS? No, CRISIS
http://www/marketoracle.co.uk/Article53009.html  which reflected on the likelihood that many other nations within South America, given an opportunity to join an alternative alliance, would revolt from their northern neighbor-controlled environment and join BRICS.  Also, at the same time Iran’s news agency had announced that the country would seek to become a participant in the BRICS New Development Bank.  This event, and some forward projection inspired the renaming of this alliance to CRISIS, by reordering the nations in this alliance by size and import as China, Russia, South America, Iran, and South Africa, thus creating a new acronym, CRISIS.  The article cited above is still timely today, and describes the goals and hopes of a far larger global alliance, which escapes the dollar hegemony and its consequences for countries other than the old colonial powers of England, America, and Europe.      

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Currencies

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Is it too late to play Ethereum’s upcoming Merge? / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride

Ethereum’s big merge is happening on September 14…

RiskHedge Chief Analyst Stephen McBride says it’s the most important crypto event since Ethereum’s debut seven years ago.

The Merge is set to forever transform Ethereum, the second-biggest crypto.

It’ll make it more energy efficient and attractive for big-money investors to own.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 09, 2022

Stocks Bear Market Rally End Game / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Mega earnings week saw the stock market soar on reporting euphoria where apparently the worse the earnings the stronger the rally in stocks such as Amazon due to the twin forces of investors piling into breakouts AND the market running short stops, which surely implies that the bear market could be OVER! After all the stock market discounts the future and so is looking beyond current BAD earnings and economic data to the blue sky's of future quarters, that coupled with US bonds rallying as the market tempered future interest rate expectations down from a peak of 4% for Mid 2023 to currently 3.25% all contributing towards the S&P closing higher at 4130.

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