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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Friday, September 23, 2022

All Gold and Quiet on the Eastern Front / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The war in Ukraine has entered its seventh month and some people believe that China is gearing up for a war with Taiwan. Will bulls invade the gold market?

In August, half a year had passed since the beginning of the war in Eastern Europe. Ukraine defended its independence but lost 13% of its territory. The six months of war between Europe’s two largest nations have brought death and suffering on a mass scale. More than 13 million people have been displaced, and nearly 7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe. Ukraine’s economy collapsed while the prices of food and energy have soared.

What is the situation on the front? Unfortunately, the aggressor’s troops maintain a relatively stable land connection with Crimea and are slowly pushing the Ukrainian army from its positions in Donbas, the main area of combat. It means that taking control of the rest of the Donetsk Oblast by the Russians is probably a matter of time, although it may take several more months. The change in favor of the Ukrainians is possible only if the West significantly increases its military supplies, which would enable an effective Ukrainian counter-offensive. It’s true that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the direction of Kherson in the south of the country is gaining momentum – in particular thanks to the supplies of HIMARS – but a full scale operation is unlikely due to a lack of manpower and weapons.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 23, 2022

Economic Conditions, Market Performance Worsen after Fed Rate Hike / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are trying to tough this week despite another large rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three quarters as expected. Fed chairman Jerome Powell vowed to bring inflation down and restore price stability.

Jerome Powell: My colleagues and I are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal. We have both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%. The longer the current bout of high inflation continues the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

After pursuing ultra-loose monetary policy that fomented price instability and massive inflation in the first place, Powell seems to now want to model himself after former Fed chairman Paul Volcker. In the early 1980s, Volcker jacked up interest rates to the highest on record to finally curtail the inflation surge from the late 1970s.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 23, 2022

Why You Should Be Leery of the Stocks Bond 60 / 40 Portfolio / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI


"The tidal wave of risk assumption … may be turning"

Many investors allocate a percentage of their portfolios to bonds to cushion against a drop in the stock market.

A popular allocation is a 60 / 40 mix of stocks and bonds.

However, this hasn't worked out recently. Here's a Yahoo! Finance headline (Sept. 6):

The 60/40 strategy is on pace for its worst year since 1936: BofA

The mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds was down 19.4% from the start of the year through the end of August, according to Bank of America Global Research.

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Commodities

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Saudi Arabia Potential DOOMSDAY Oil Market BLACK SWAN! / Commodities / Saudi Arabia

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yes here's another potential black swan brewing in the background as the world continues to reel from the impact of high oil prices with the blame firmly being placed at the feet of Czar Putin, so I trundled along to take a look under the hood of the oil market and I noticed something strange that could result in an oil market DOOMSDAY Black Swan event!

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Stock Market Smashing Fed Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 turned decisively lower, with only a very brief spike that got reversed within an hour. No room for bullish misinterpretation, Powell didn‘t say really anything that could feed buy the dip sentiment – he delivered. Treasuries are getting accustomed to the soft landing not turning out so soft in the future actually – yields at the long end of the curve have finally turned down while Fed tightening keeps being reflected on the short end, and junk bonds are suffering.

In all the risk-off, the dollar was unable to hold on to sharp gains both yesterday and today, and together with the crypto premarket upswing and real asset resiliency, this points to a reprieve in paper asset selling later this week. SPX 3,825 is the key level to watch today. I like the message commodities and precious metals are sending here – once it gets accompanied by miners and oil sector stocks, things would get brighter, but we are not there yet. Suffice to say that sharp downside is being decisively rejected.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Will Gold Survive Another Jumbo Rate Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The key FOMC meeting ends soon. One thing is certain: after this event, the gold market won’t be the same.

The Fed’s Projection Will Be Key for Gold

Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seat and fasten your seat belt, as we’re approaching the FOMC meeting and there could be some turbulence! Actually, gold has already entered an area of turbulence and has declined below the psychologically important level of $1,700. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has declined from $1,726 last week to the current level of $1,664, in a response to the strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Fed.
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

STOCKS BEAR MARKETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Stocks Bear Market Accumulation Strategy / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My strategy for this bear market from the outset has been be to accumulate during a volatile trend to a probable Dow target of 29k to 30k where I settled on my best guess of 29.6k, by late August. In the course of which I was expecting volatile swings of between 15% to 30% in either direction that would allow me to BUY big during the DIPs and then SELL a portion of what I bought during the bear market rallies, as well as selective shorting. Unfortunately this bear market has tuned out to be LESS volatile than what I was expecting i.e. swings higher of 9% are just not enough for any significant trimming of positions as the table illustrates.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

7 Ways to Improve Financial Literacy for Students / Personal_Finance / Student Finances

By: Sumeet_Manhas

What student doesn’t struggle with their finances at some point? After all, it’s your first time living truly on your own. You’re in charge of paying your rent and bills, shopping for groceries, and managing your bank account. And, you’re probably making a living yourself, too. All of those are firsts for you!

So, you might be under the impression your hard-earned money just vaporizes within a week after you get your paycheck. Or, you might fail to avoid going into debt just to pay all of your bills. Whatever it is, you surely need to boost your financial literacy and management skills.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Why Slot Machines Are in High Demand Among Experienced Players / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Slots are obviously the most common casino game types. Colourful gameplay and convenient mechanics attract millions of players, while the variety of gaming solutions on the market suits even the pickiest users. So, what are the main reasons why gamblers adore slot machines?

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Politics

Monday, September 19, 2022

China Could Deliver the MOTHER of ALL BLACK SWAN's! / Politics / China US Conflict

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Continuing the trend trajectory of China's collapsing insane ponzi property market that is triggering bank runs and CCP crackdowns including the deployment of tanks to meet protesting bank customers who are systematically having their lifetime savings stolen, converted from bank deposits into risky investments in bankrupt developers, then this trend towards financial collapse could result in the mother of all Black Swan events that is not on anyone's radar which is that Chairman Xi Mao Jinping literally presses the RESET button in a new GREAT LEAP BACKWARDS! THAT CHINA COULD ONCE MORE TURN FULL BLOWN COMMUNIST! The slaves got a taste of CCP capitalism which they then erased ALL of the masses hard earned wealth on the click of a mouse button.

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InvestorEducation

Monday, September 19, 2022

STOCKS BEAR MAKRETS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE PAINFUL! / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The bottom line is that bear markets are supposed to be PAINFUL! And I can tell many investors feel that PAIN from the comments as they post the latest price of say Intel or AMD or TSMC or any other stock trading lower as if I have a magic button to press to make the stock go higher. So if you are feeling PAIN then go read my earlier recent articles on the psychology of investing in bear markets because bear markets are PAINFUL where the degree of pain experienced depends on what time frame on is focused upon.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Currencies

Monday, September 19, 2022

How Much Longer Can the US Dollar Trade Last? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Richard_Mills

This year has seen a correction in the gold price, commensurate with rising interest rates, and the spectre of more to come. The precious metal has also been hammered by a strong US dollar, which is negatively correlated to the gold price.

Spot gold has fallen from about $1,800 an ounce at the start of the year, to $1,675 currently, a drop of 7.4%. On Thursday, Sept. 15, gold plunged to its lower level since April, 2020, on expectations of a 0.75% interest rate increase next week by the Federal Reserve.

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Commodities

Monday, September 19, 2022

Gold Bleeding, Seasonal Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has sure been a four-letter word lately, suffering one of its worst bull summers.  The primary culprit was heavy gold-futures selling on a parabolic US-dollar surge fueled by extreme Fed hawkishness.  But the resulting gold technical damage really disheartened investors, spawning additional relentless selling from them.  This investment bleeding has certainly exacerbated gold’s downside, but its days are numbered.

With inflation raging in its biggest super-spike since the 1970s, gold should be soaring today.  Instead it has been bludgeoned 14.3% lower between mid-April to late July, defying long precedent.  And at the mid-week data cutoff for this essay, gold had again been pummeled right back to those deep summer lows.  Technically gold looks pretty broken, which has whipped up bearish sentiment to suffocating extremes.

Gold was trading near $1,977 in mid-April just before the US Dollar Index started rocketing vertically.  In the past five months starting then, US headline CPI inflation has run red-hot blasting up 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%, and 8.3% year-over-year!  That high-water June print was the worst witnessed since way back in November 1981, a 40.6-year high!  It’s hard to imagine a more-irrational backdrop for a major gold selloff.

Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s.  In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974.  Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher!  During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980.  Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!

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Politics

Sunday, September 18, 2022

Jumping the Queue to See the Queen Lying in State at Westminister Like at Alton Towers / Politics / Social Issues

By: N_Walayat

The Queen is lying in state, and her subjects have been queuing for as long as 24 hours to give their final respects to Britians longest reigning monarch.

Britian is said to be a nation of quers. Whilst that may be true for most, the younger iphone generation tend to be a nation of queue jumpers, as the Queens queue brings back memeories of the euques at Alton Tower at the height of the pandemic during 20201, when the vaccines were still yet to be jabbed into most peoples arms.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, September 16, 2022

Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!

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Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2022

Inflation Is Hotter Than Expected, Gold Price Colder Than Hoped / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The annual CPI decelerated in August but came in higher than expected. Bets on a more hawkish Fed increased, while in the case of gold, they decreased.

Inflation stayed hot in August. Unbelievable! At least for the majority of pundits who expected softer inflation. However, I’m not surprised, as I’ve repeated many times that “inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time.” But let’s stop bragging – and start digging into the recent CPI report.

The CPI increased 0.1% in August after being flat in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn’t seem to be a huge increase, but let’s note that it occurred despite a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. Without plunging gas prices, inflation would be much higher because of the broad-based monthly item increase.
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InvestorEducation

Friday, September 16, 2022

Learn Elliott Wave Theory - FREE 1 Hour Course / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Hi,

Our friends at Elliott Wave International are offering a complimentary course on how to 1) spot an Elliott wave pattern on a price chart, and 2) develop a solid trading plan to take advantage of it.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Trend Forecast Sept to Dec 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Despite being skeptical of Elliott wave theory and not abiding by any of it's tenants, i.e. I number the counts as I see them regardless of following the 'rules'. Nevertheless Elliott wave proved a useful tool during 2021 in the count down to the end of the Stocks bull market and the start of this bear market as the charts illustrate that there are times when EW BS actually works!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, September 15, 2022

Bearish Signals Remain for Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

After the bearish progress, oil prices slipped slightly as worries about the global growth outlook overtook fears about the supply shortage.

Macroeconomics

On the macroeconomic view, the greenback found support on its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) at the beginning of the week before resuming its rally upward and approaching its monthly highs of $110-110.50. Will the quarterly R3 pivot ($115) be reached anytime soon, or will the $110.50 level be left as its two-decade high?

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