Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets / Economics / Recession 2020
By: John_Mauldin
I’m slowly losing confidence in the economy.
I still think the economy is okay for now. But I also see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point, this growth phase will end.
It will be either recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot). On top of that, we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.
Let me give you the CliffsNotes version of how I think the next decade will play out.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We know many of you follow our research posts and have been waiting for the Gold/Silver setup we predicted would happen near April 21~24, 2019 back in January 2019. Well, it looks like our predictions were accurate and the current downward price rotation in Gold/Silver are the opportunities of a lifetime for precious metals traders.
Our original research regarding the predicted Gold price rotation and breakout initially posted in October 2018 and was updated in January 2019. You can read our updated post here.
This research suggested, back in October 2018, that gold would rally above $1300, then stall and setup a momentum base near April 21~24, 2019. Currently, we are actively seeking entry positions in Gold, Silver and many other stock market sectors related to the metals and miners.
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Monday, April 22, 2019
Cannabis Stocks: Don't Let Your Opportunity Go Up in Smoke / Commodities / Cannabis
By: EWI
Here's when society expresses greater acceptance toward marijuanaIn the 1973 song "The Joker," the Steve Miller Band sang:
"I'm a joker. I'm a smoker. I'm a midnight toker."
Of course, "midnight toker" referred to pot smoking. Back then, there were plenty of midnight tokers, but most of them feared getting "busted."
Thirty years later, in 2003, the Elliott Wave Theorist predicted:
"Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized."
Then, in July 2009, The Socionomist (the monthly publication of the Socionomics Institute, a sister organization of Elliott Wave International) published a study titled "The Coming Collapse of Modern Prohibition," which reviewed the repeal of Prohibition during the bear market psychology of the early 1930s.
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Monday, April 22, 2019
Global Bond Market Bubble’s Ultimate Culmination / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Michael_Pento
Historically speaking, a normal Fed tightening cycles consist of raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) by 350-425bps. It is at that point that the yield curve usually inverts--thus, disincentivizing future lending and closing down the credit conduit. At that point the Fed backs off from future rate hikes. Then, about a year later, a stock market meltdown begins; and six months after that a recession ensues. During this current cycle, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised rates by just 250bps before turning dovish. Therefore, Wall Street takes solace in the view that this time around the Fed stopped in time before it killed the business cycle.
However, that 250bps of hiking is before you factor in the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the current Quantitative Tightening Program (QT), which is still an ongoing process and won't end until September. When you factor in the tightening that occurred when the Fed ended QE in October of 2014, which amounted to $85b per month of newly printed money at its peak and added a total of $3.7 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet, the actual amount of tightening from ending QE is probably close to 300bps. And, the QT from the Fed will end up draining nearly $1 trillion from its balance sheet and reached $40-$50 billion per month at its peak. A reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet of anything close to $1 trillion is completely unprecedented and amounted to a tremendous drain on liquidity. Nobody knows exactly the amount of rate hikes this equates to, but it most likely added another 75bps of monetary tightening.
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Stock Market Pause Should Extend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 is ready for another pull-back which should be followed by a final high before a significant correction begins.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, speaks to Streetwise Reports about the fundamentals for gold, his company's funds and a handful of companies on his radar screen. Streetwise Reports: Since the beginning of the year, gold has been trading fairly narrowly in the $1,300 range. What are some of the macro factors working behind this and how do you believe they'll affect the price moving forward?
Frank Holmes: When we look at macro factors at U.S. Global—and we write about them every month, in particular the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)—we try to take this complexity and simplify it by dividing it into big chunks.
The first is commodities; 50% of all commodity demand is China, so China is very, very important. When you add the populations of China and India—"Chindia"—you get 40% of the world's population. That's a lot of food. That's a lot of clothes. That's a lot of airplanes they'll be buying for India.
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? / Politics / Taxes
By: Harry_Dent
Tax Day Monday. Have you filed yet?A tax professional friend of mine told me recently that he’s surprised every year to see how many people leave their tax filing to the last minute.
Maybe they’re too busy. Maybe they live under a rock…
Regardless, they can’t escape it. As U.S. citizens, we wear the IRS ankle brace wherever we go.
So, when I moved to Puerto Rico in May 2016, the tax implications didn’t cross my mind. I packed up and shipped out to be closer to my vacation home on Culebra, not only to expedite its completion, but to enjoy it more freely. In hindsight, the move brought with it some much welcomed tax benefits…
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Taxes and Government Waste, Is There a Better Way? / Politics / Taxes
By: Rodney_Johnson
This is an expensive week for me. Our wedding anniversary is the 14th, Tax Day is the 15th, and my youngest child’s birthday falls on the 16th.Only two of those days make me happy.
This year I’m getting a bit of a refund, but I’ll never see it. Because my income varies, it’s hard to know how much to pay every quarter, so I usually overpay. But then my accountant just applies the refund to next year’s tax bill.
One day I want to get the check in my hand. I send so much to Uncle Sam, for once I want him to send some cash to me!
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Paying the Retirement Bill / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: Rodney_Johnson
I find myself thinking more about retirement.I don’t want to trade my daily routine for the cruise ship, but I’m developing a laser focus on generating more income that I can put away for later use… which explains my latest business foray into the golf cart rental business.
The venture is turning a profit after a couple of months, and our biggest battle right now is with mother nature. What I would give for a sunny weekend on the Texas coast!
But I face bigger hurdles in my efforts to generate cash than just the weather: the Fed and the tax man. And the two intersect in a very unlikely place: pensions.
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The great euphoria emanating from these near-record-high stock markets is breathtaking. Traders are again convinced stocks do nothing but rally indefinitely. That everything-is-awesome mindset has stunted gold’s latest upleg, since there’s no perceived need for prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios. But that psychology can change fast, as we saw a half-year ago. Gold investment roars back as stocks roll over.
The word “euphoria” is widely misunderstood, often confused with “mania”. The latter is when stocks rocket vertically in blowoff tops, and is defined as “an excessively intense enthusiasm, interest, or desire”. The US stock markets certainly aren’t in a mania. At its latest high last Friday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had only edged up 1.2% over the past 14.5 months. That’s not parabolic.
The closest thing to a mania seen in recent years was the SPX’s 18.4% surge over just 5.3 months that led into its initial January 2018 peak. Traders were ecstatic about Republicans’ coming major corporate tax cuts, and aggressively piled into stocks. While euphoria accompanies manias, it is entirely different. It is simply “a strong feeling of happiness, confidence, or well-being”. That psychology is universal today.
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? / Politics / US Politics
By: Richard_Mills
Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Israel’s 1981 annexation of the Golan Heights was reportedly made “after getting a quick history lesson during a conversation on a different subject,” states a news story that has been making the social media rounds lately. It showed up on my Facebook feed.
Curious, I clicked on the link. The Reuters article went on to explain how ‘The Donald’ made the snap decision at the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas. The referenced conversation was between himself, US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Both men are Jewish. No bias there.
“I said, ‘Fellows, do me a favor. Give me a little history, quick. Want to go fast. I got a lot of things I’m working on: China, North Korea. Give me a quickie.” Trump recounted to the amiable crowd.
Was the history lesson objective, giving a fair account of both sides of the Arab-Israeli conflict, leading the listener – Trump - to draw his own conclusion? Not a chance.
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Trump - They Were All Lying / Politics / US Politics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A dear friend the other day accused me of defending Trump. I don’t, and never have, but it made me think that if she says it, probably others say and think the same; I’ve written a lot about him. So let me explain once again. Though I think perhaps this has reached a “you’re either with us or against us’ level.
What I noticed, and have written a lot about, during and since the 2016 US presidential campaign, is that the media, both in the US and abroad, started making up accusations against Trump from scratch. This included the collusion with Russia accusation that led to the Mueller probe.
There was never any proof of the accusation, which is why the conclusion of the probe was No Collusion. I started writing this yesterday while awaiting the presentation of the Mueller report, but it wouldn’t have mattered one way or the other: the accusation was clear, and so was the conclusion.
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Friday, April 19, 2019
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
After World War II, Japan experienced rapid growth as the US and others helped rebuild its economy. This led to a roaring expansion that culminated in the 1980s Japanese asset bubble.
It popped in the early 1990s bringing what came to be called the “Lost Decade.” It was really more than a decade, as the early 2000s brought only mild recovery.
GDP shrank, wages fell, and asset prices dropped or went sideways at best. Japan is still grappling with it today.
Now the rest of the world is approaching a period that may be an equivalent of Japan’s “Lost Decade.” It won’t be the end of the world, but it might be more painful than in Japan.
Friday, April 19, 2019
Growing Bird of Paradise Strelitzia Plants, Pruning and Flower Guide Over 4 Years / Personal_Finance / Gardening
By: Anika_Walayat
Temperatures are rising and summers just around the corner! So now is the time to for Britains gardeners to plant their centrepiece plants. Those special plants that will stop people in their tracks to look. One such plant that is guaranteed to grab peoples attention is the Bird of Paradise that delivers in unique bird like flowers.
In this unique video that you WILL enjoy watching we follow Anika from age 5.5 over the following 4 years, right through to age 10 as she both grows and shows how to grow and look after a Bird of Paradise plant in the UK, starting from a small 6 inch plant all the way to a 4 foot flowering bird of paradise plant over 4years later. Anika covers the key stages of growth towards achieving the target of having a flowering bird of paradise plant.
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Friday, April 19, 2019
Gold UUP & HUI Combo Chart…Now is Not the Time to be Complacent / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
On Tuesday of this week I posted this combo chart showing the possible small blue flag forming on the UUP ( US Dollar). This morning the price action gapped above the top rail and is now approaching the top rail of the rising wedge formation. The sixth reversal point will be completed when the top rail is hit. This is where it’s getting interesting. Many investors believe the US dollar is going to go down or collapse which could be the case. On the other hand what if the US dollar breaks out above the top rail of its August rising wedge?
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Friday, April 19, 2019
While You Were Distracted By Stocks, the Fed Made Its Move… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
This move in the markets is effectively finished… and the Fed’s secret plan is complete
The S&P 500 is right at the very tip of the rising bearish wedge formation I’ve been tracking since early January 2019.
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Friday, April 19, 2019
Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).
The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).
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Thursday, April 18, 2019
The Notre Dame Fire: Lessons for Gold Investors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The Monday’s fire of Notre Dame Cathedral shocked the world. Since then, the French, the Catholics, and the architecture and art lovers hadn’t been talking about anything else. The precious metals community was less disturbed – even though it turns out that gold investors can actually learn a lot from the Notre Dame’s fire.
We have visited Paris for the first time only a month ago. Maybe this is why the images of Notre Dame being consumed by fire have aroused our emotions, even though we are not connoisseurs of architecture. Luckily, the cathedral has survived and the scale of damages is not as grave as it first seemed.
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Thursday, April 18, 2019
S&P 500’s Downward Reversal or Just Profit-Taking Action? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Wednesday’s trading session was mixed, as investors hesitated following the recent rally. However, the S&P 500 was the highest since the early October yesterday, following last week’s breakout above the 2,900 level. Will the uptrend continue despite some technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and 0.0% on Wednesday, as investors took short-term profits off the table following the recent rally. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% yesterday before reversing its intraday upward course. Last Friday it broke above the 2,900 level. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 1.4% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.1% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,920-2,940, marked by the mentioned record high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,900, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,860-2,865, marked by the recent local lows.
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Thursday, April 18, 2019
US Stock Markets Setting Up For Increased Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US stock markets took a nosedive early in the regular trading session after the QQQ briefly advanced to new All-Time Highs this morning. With the QQQ and other symbols nearing fresh new highs, traders should expect volatility to increase as trading systems and traders to look for any signs of a top to set up. As we start to cross into “new high territory”, some fear starts to come back into the markets and volatility is sure to increase.
The Russell 2000 took a pretty big hit today as you can see from the chart below. This move lower is still well within our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system’s bullish parameters and we’ve highlighted a “Support Zone” for our followers to understand where real price support is located. Any downside move below $152 would cause us to reconsider our bullish trend position, but right now this is nothing more than price rotation. Wait it out and look for opportunities when it bottoms.
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