Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Can Gold Price Rise Without a Rate Cut? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The downside potential in precious metals discussed last week is playing out as Gold and gold stocks have broken down technically.
The global economy appears to be firming and that is evidenced by a sustained rebound in global equity markets.
As a result, the potential for a rate cut which pushed precious metals higher is now unwinding. That has caused the breakdown in precious metals and there is more unwinding to go.
We have trumpeted the need (in precious metals) for a rate cut as a fundamental catalyst for the next bull market. But there is another scenario that plays well for Gold.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Elliott Wave Analysis of SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: WavePatternTraders
If you are an active trader, then you may well have been noticing the recent strength on the semiconductor stocks, particularly stocks like Broadcom (AVGO) Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT). Although there are a few more semiconductor stocks that have shown strength since the Dec 2018 low, based on the weighting, the stocks listed are the more important stocks to follow in my opinion.Taking a look at the ETF called XSD, it's pretty much the SOX in disguise, I favor the frenzy and euphoria that we are seeing now, is likely a 5th wave of a large impulse wave from the 2009 low. It's common to see Technology stocks being bid when traders and investors are chasing the market. We saw that into the Oct 2018 high as the FAANG stocks were being bid up. Today it's not so much the FAANG stocks, but the semiconductor stocks, which is very reminiscent to what was seen into the 2000 tech bubble top.
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Silver’s Next Big Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Eight years ago this month, silver started its “next big move”. And that move continues today. It is awesome to behold. See the chart (ten-year history of silver prices) below…
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
How Can a College Student Invest Wisely? / Personal_Finance / Student Finances
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Prepare For Unknown Stock Market Price Action As New Highs Are Reached / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The ES and NQ are very close to breaking out to new all-time highs this week and possibly over the next few weeks. The NQ is very close to these new high levels already. Traders must not take this move for granted as increased volatility and a very real chance for a price correction become even greater once we break into “new high territory”.
This upside move has taken almost 5 months to climb back from the December 2018 lows. It has been a very dramatic rally to say the least. We’ve seen dozens of professional analysts suggest the markets would rotate lower all the way up this rally. It seems as though everyone wanted to be right that the market top in October 2018 was going to be the start of something big. We were one of the few analysts that called the market accurately. Our September 17, 2018 analysis called for almost every leg of this price swing over the past 7+ months. We stuck by our research while others were skeptical and doubting our research. We stuck to it because we believe in our work and modeling tools.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Mueller Report - Cover-up for Real Crimes / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
If one listens to the Democrats or the mainstream media, the impression that is being fed to the American public is that the Trump investigation will just intensify. The sacred Grand Inquisitor, Robert Mueller once the darling of the witch hunt, is now a spineless hangman who failed to topple the king. After this tortured process of the Deep State cover-up, the central concocted reason for finding collusion with some imaginary Russian plot to fix the 2016 presidential election never provided the evidence to prove this establishment narrative. Pray tell; no boot licking toady would ever admit that the U.S. imperial empire ever intervened or staged subversion into foreign elections or governmental overthrows.
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Silver Plays a Small but Vital Role in Every Portfolio / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jared_Dillian
Portfolio strategies like Modern Portfolio Theory and others tend to assume that market returns follow a normal distribution.
Not really.
Certain securities have high kurtosis. That is where out-of-the ordinary returns (larger or smaller) occur more frequently than the normal distribution predicts.
Of course, nobody who is stable and balanced puts 100% of their assets into something which has the possibility of extreme returns.
But risk 90 cents for the possibility of making 10 bucks? All day long.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets / Economics / Recession 2020
By: John_Mauldin
I’m slowly losing confidence in the economy.
I still think the economy is okay for now. But I also see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point, this growth phase will end.
It will be either recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot). On top of that, we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.
Let me give you the CliffsNotes version of how I think the next decade will play out.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Gold and Silver Give Traders Another Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We know many of you follow our research posts and have been waiting for the Gold/Silver setup we predicted would happen near April 21~24, 2019 back in January 2019. Well, it looks like our predictions were accurate and the current downward price rotation in Gold/Silver are the opportunities of a lifetime for precious metals traders.
Our original research regarding the predicted Gold price rotation and breakout initially posted in October 2018 and was updated in January 2019. You can read our updated post here.
This research suggested, back in October 2018, that gold would rally above $1300, then stall and setup a momentum base near April 21~24, 2019. Currently, we are actively seeking entry positions in Gold, Silver and many other stock market sectors related to the metals and miners.
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Monday, April 22, 2019
Cannabis Stocks: Don't Let Your Opportunity Go Up in Smoke / Commodities / Cannabis
By: EWI
Here's when society expresses greater acceptance toward marijuanaIn the 1973 song "The Joker," the Steve Miller Band sang:
"I'm a joker. I'm a smoker. I'm a midnight toker."
Of course, "midnight toker" referred to pot smoking. Back then, there were plenty of midnight tokers, but most of them feared getting "busted."
Thirty years later, in 2003, the Elliott Wave Theorist predicted:
"Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized."
Then, in July 2009, The Socionomist (the monthly publication of the Socionomics Institute, a sister organization of Elliott Wave International) published a study titled "The Coming Collapse of Modern Prohibition," which reviewed the repeal of Prohibition during the bear market psychology of the early 1930s.
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Monday, April 22, 2019
Global Bond Market Bubble’s Ultimate Culmination / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Michael_Pento
Historically speaking, a normal Fed tightening cycles consist of raising the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) by 350-425bps. It is at that point that the yield curve usually inverts--thus, disincentivizing future lending and closing down the credit conduit. At that point the Fed backs off from future rate hikes. Then, about a year later, a stock market meltdown begins; and six months after that a recession ensues. During this current cycle, the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised rates by just 250bps before turning dovish. Therefore, Wall Street takes solace in the view that this time around the Fed stopped in time before it killed the business cycle.
However, that 250bps of hiking is before you factor in the end of Quantitative Easing (QE) and the current Quantitative Tightening Program (QT), which is still an ongoing process and won't end until September. When you factor in the tightening that occurred when the Fed ended QE in October of 2014, which amounted to $85b per month of newly printed money at its peak and added a total of $3.7 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet, the actual amount of tightening from ending QE is probably close to 300bps. And, the QT from the Fed will end up draining nearly $1 trillion from its balance sheet and reached $40-$50 billion per month at its peak. A reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet of anything close to $1 trillion is completely unprecedented and amounted to a tremendous drain on liquidity. Nobody knows exactly the amount of rate hikes this equates to, but it most likely added another 75bps of monetary tightening.
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Stock Market Pause Should Extend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer is the question.
Intermediate trend – The trend which started at 2346 is ready for another pull-back which should be followed by a final high before a significant correction begins.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Why Gold Has Been the Second Best Asset Class for the Last 20 Years / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, speaks to Streetwise Reports about the fundamentals for gold, his company's funds and a handful of companies on his radar screen. Streetwise Reports: Since the beginning of the year, gold has been trading fairly narrowly in the $1,300 range. What are some of the macro factors working behind this and how do you believe they'll affect the price moving forward?
Frank Holmes: When we look at macro factors at U.S. Global—and we write about them every month, in particular the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)—we try to take this complexity and simplify it by dividing it into big chunks.
The first is commodities; 50% of all commodity demand is China, so China is very, very important. When you add the populations of China and India—"Chindia"—you get 40% of the world's population. That's a lot of food. That's a lot of clothes. That's a lot of airplanes they'll be buying for India.
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Could Taxing the Rich Solve Income Inequality? / Politics / Taxes
By: Harry_Dent
Tax Day Monday. Have you filed yet?A tax professional friend of mine told me recently that he’s surprised every year to see how many people leave their tax filing to the last minute.
Maybe they’re too busy. Maybe they live under a rock…
Regardless, they can’t escape it. As U.S. citizens, we wear the IRS ankle brace wherever we go.
So, when I moved to Puerto Rico in May 2016, the tax implications didn’t cross my mind. I packed up and shipped out to be closer to my vacation home on Culebra, not only to expedite its completion, but to enjoy it more freely. In hindsight, the move brought with it some much welcomed tax benefits…
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
Taxes and Government Waste, Is There a Better Way? / Politics / Taxes
By: Rodney_Johnson
This is an expensive week for me. Our wedding anniversary is the 14th, Tax Day is the 15th, and my youngest child’s birthday falls on the 16th.Only two of those days make me happy.
This year I’m getting a bit of a refund, but I’ll never see it. Because my income varies, it’s hard to know how much to pay every quarter, so I usually overpay. But then my accountant just applies the refund to next year’s tax bill.
One day I want to get the check in my hand. I send so much to Uncle Sam, for once I want him to send some cash to me!
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Paying the Retirement Bill / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: Rodney_Johnson
I find myself thinking more about retirement.I don’t want to trade my daily routine for the cruise ship, but I’m developing a laser focus on generating more income that I can put away for later use… which explains my latest business foray into the golf cart rental business.
The venture is turning a profit after a couple of months, and our biggest battle right now is with mother nature. What I would give for a sunny weekend on the Texas coast!
But I face bigger hurdles in my efforts to generate cash than just the weather: the Fed and the tax man. And the two intersect in a very unlikely place: pensions.
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Stock Market Euphoria Stunts Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The great euphoria emanating from these near-record-high stock markets is breathtaking. Traders are again convinced stocks do nothing but rally indefinitely. That everything-is-awesome mindset has stunted gold’s latest upleg, since there’s no perceived need for prudently diversifying stock-heavy portfolios. But that psychology can change fast, as we saw a half-year ago. Gold investment roars back as stocks roll over.
The word “euphoria” is widely misunderstood, often confused with “mania”. The latter is when stocks rocket vertically in blowoff tops, and is defined as “an excessively intense enthusiasm, interest, or desire”. The US stock markets certainly aren’t in a mania. At its latest high last Friday, the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index (SPX) had only edged up 1.2% over the past 14.5 months. That’s not parabolic.
The closest thing to a mania seen in recent years was the SPX’s 18.4% surge over just 5.3 months that led into its initial January 2018 peak. Traders were ecstatic about Republicans’ coming major corporate tax cuts, and aggressively piled into stocks. While euphoria accompanies manias, it is entirely different. It is simply “a strong feeling of happiness, confidence, or well-being”. That psychology is universal today.
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Is Political Partisanship Killing America? / Politics / US Politics
By: Richard_Mills
Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Israel’s 1981 annexation of the Golan Heights was reportedly made “after getting a quick history lesson during a conversation on a different subject,” states a news story that has been making the social media rounds lately. It showed up on my Facebook feed.
Curious, I clicked on the link. The Reuters article went on to explain how ‘The Donald’ made the snap decision at the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas. The referenced conversation was between himself, US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Both men are Jewish. No bias there.
“I said, ‘Fellows, do me a favor. Give me a little history, quick. Want to go fast. I got a lot of things I’m working on: China, North Korea. Give me a quickie.” Trump recounted to the amiable crowd.
Was the history lesson objective, giving a fair account of both sides of the Arab-Israeli conflict, leading the listener – Trump - to draw his own conclusion? Not a chance.
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Trump - They Were All Lying / Politics / US Politics
By: Raul_I_Meijer
A dear friend the other day accused me of defending Trump. I don’t, and never have, but it made me think that if she says it, probably others say and think the same; I’ve written a lot about him. So let me explain once again. Though I think perhaps this has reached a “you’re either with us or against us’ level.
What I noticed, and have written a lot about, during and since the 2016 US presidential campaign, is that the media, both in the US and abroad, started making up accusations against Trump from scratch. This included the collusion with Russia accusation that led to the Mueller probe.
There was never any proof of the accusation, which is why the conclusion of the probe was No Collusion. I started writing this yesterday while awaiting the presentation of the Mueller report, but it wouldn’t have mattered one way or the other: the accusation was clear, and so was the conclusion.
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Friday, April 19, 2019
The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
After World War II, Japan experienced rapid growth as the US and others helped rebuild its economy. This led to a roaring expansion that culminated in the 1980s Japanese asset bubble.
It popped in the early 1990s bringing what came to be called the “Lost Decade.” It was really more than a decade, as the early 2000s brought only mild recovery.
GDP shrank, wages fell, and asset prices dropped or went sideways at best. Japan is still grappling with it today.
Now the rest of the world is approaching a period that may be an equivalent of Japan’s “Lost Decade.” It won’t be the end of the world, but it might be more painful than in Japan.