Sunday, June 23, 2019

Trump Clueless On Trade Tariffs / Politics / Protectionism

By: Steve_H_Hanke

President Trump doesn’t like U.S. trade deficits. He also doesn’t like migrants flowing into the U.S. from south of the border. His tariffs and tariff threats are slowing trade and world economic growth. And this will, in turn, increase the migrant flows into the United States. After all, as foreign economic activity slows, and more foreigners are either thrown out of work or find their incomes drying up, they will be motivated to migrate. Trump remains clueless as to why tariffs fuel migration.

But, that’s not Trump’s only international trade blind spot. He and his cabinet think that U.S. trade deficits are a problem, and that they are caused by foreign countries that manipulate their currencies and engage in unfair trade practices. These ideas are wrongheaded.

These misguided ideas have plagued other administrations—even those lead by free-market presidents, like Ronald Reagan. Indeed, I spent many days, while at Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers, trying to defend the President’s free-trade ideas. But, at the end of the day, the free-trader faction, which was led by the likes of Reagan himself, lost the war. The protectionists who harbored exactly the same wrongheaded ideas as Trump rolled us.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

The Gold Market Manipulation Theory / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

’ve always said that gold built out one of the most beautiful bull markets of all time between the 2001 low and 2011 high. From a Chartology perspective it just doesn’t get any better. During the bull market years I called this weekly bar chart, “JUST ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL, because each consolidation pattern marked another brick in the wall.

The reason I’m posting this chart tonight is because we could be embarking on a similar bull market starting at the 2001 low. Take a minute and put yourself back at the 2001 low not knowing what lies ahead. As gold began to rally the first thing one would look for in a new bull market is a consolidation pattern which gold produced in 2002 that was the blue triangle. Once the price action broke out of that small blue triangle the next impulse began confirming the new bull market. From that point one had to believe in the Chartology that the major trend was up until a new lower low was put in place. As long as each consolidation pattern was followed by an impulse move up the bull market remained intact, rinse and repeat.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Richard_Mills

The US Federal Reserve, the country’s central bank, did what many expected on Wednesday, and held interest rates steady, while signaling that a rate cut is on its way.

Despite pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded after a two-day meeting that it will stay pat for now, meaning no change to the 2.25% to 2.5% range on the federal funds rate. Nine of 10 FOMC members voted to keep rates unchanged.

Language here is important. The Fed reportedly dropped its pledge to be “patient” on widely anticipated rate cuts, meaning it could be poised to act. Also, Reuters said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stopped referring to below-target inflation as “transient”.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Financial Sector Paints A Clear Picture For Stock Market Trading Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After the incredible week we’ve seen, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged and precious metals rocketing higher above their previous five-year highs, it’s time we pay attention to what’s happening in the financial sector and the US stock market majors.  Closing out this week, we heard all traders and investors pay very close attention to the US dollar, precious metals, and the US major indexes.

There are a number of major factors taking place throughout the world that will likely drive future price trends over the next 30 to 60 days. Tensions in the Middle East, debt issues in China and Europe, central bank actions throughout the world and the US, and the ultimate driver of price moves – fear and greed. We’ve mentioned to a number of associates recently that our research focuses on the transition of traders from fear into greed.  Our belief is that as traders begin to fear certain events or price trends, the price action tends to become more volatile. As this volatility increases and trends accelerate, traders transition this fear into greed where they attempt to take advantage of opportunities generated by large price swings.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

What You Should Look While Choosing Online Casino / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Submissions

Saturday, June 22, 2019

INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Where to invest to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. I have ranked these stocks in in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. Do remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!

If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2021.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran / Politics / US Military

By: Raul_I_Meijer

As a nation, you’re certifiedly (is that a word?!) in deep trouble if and when Donald Trump is your most peaceloving man. But nevertheless, that is America today. It all harks back to the days when Trump was first -grudgingly and painstakingly- recognized as an actual presidential candidate.

He campaigned as a man who would end the costly and neverending decades-old and counting US wars far away from American shores and territory. He hasn’t lived up to those campaign goals at all, far from it, and he hired doofuses like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to show everyone that he didn’t, but in the early hours of June 21 2019 he apparently decided at the last minute that it just didn’t add up.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Eye on Key USD Support and Implications for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is worth watching closely today, with important implications for Gold.

The DXY is pressing on key support at 96.40/50. This represents the June 7 pullback low as well as the 200 DMA, the Sep 2018-Present support line, and the major up trendline off of the Feb 2018 low at 88.25, which initiated the up-leg to the April 2019 high at 98.33.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Here’s Why You Should Drive a Piece of Crap Car / Personal_Finance / Auto Sector

By: Jared_Dillian

I was unhappily scrolling through Facebook the other day and saw that one of my smart friends had posted a dumb article about the excellent Toronto Raptors basketball player who, despite making nearly a hundred million dollars, still drives a 20-year-old beater SUV.

He said of the car: “It runs… and it’s paid off.”

The second part of that statement is crucial. There is nothing better than a paid-off car. There is no monthly payment, and most of the depreciation has already occurred. You are driving for free.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

How Do Stock Prices React to Fed Interest Rate Cuts? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Dimitri_Speck

The “Greatest Economy in History” Stumbles

“This is the greatest economy in the history of our country”, Donald Trump opined just a few months ago.

Alas, recently there is growing evidence of an economic slowdown.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Bull Market Breaking Out! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold finally surged to new bull-market highs this week!  Several years after its last bull high, gold punched through vexing resistance after the Fed continued capitulating on ever normalizing.  This huge milestone changes everything for gold and its miners’ stocks, unleashing new-high psychology fueling self-feeding buying.  With speculators not yet all-in and investors wildly underdeployed, gold has room to power much higher.

Gold momentum has certainly been building for a major upside breakout.  Back in mid-April with gold still near $1300, I wrote an essay describing the “Gold-Bull Breakout Potential” and why it was finally coming.  Then a couple weeks ago with gold in the $1330s, I published another one analyzing “Gold Surges Near Breakout”.  For several years higher lows had slowly compressed gold ever closer to surging over resistance.

Today’s gold bull was first born back in mid-December 2015 the day after the Fed’s initial rate hike in its just-abandoned tightening cycle.  Gold’s maiden upleg was massive, rocketing 29.9% higher in just 6.7 months to $1365 in early July 2016!  But that first high-water mark has proven impregnable over the 3.0 years since.  Gold tried and failed to break out in 2017, 2018, and 2019, repelled near a $1350 Maginot Line.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Post-FOMC Commentary: Delusions of Grandeur / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger reacts to today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. To the surprise of the many and the chagrin of the few, the Fed opted to do nothing with policy today and left rates unchanged despite clarion calls for a cut. As I wrote about earlier, there was (and is) zero rationale for a rate cut, what with GDP humming along and the best employment numbers in fifty years (if you believe them). Stocks moved higher despite several attempts at profit-taking, but that was no surprise because the Fed wanted to make damn certain the response to the statement and the ensuing presser would be a positive outcome.

The victims were bond yields (lower) and the U.S. dollar (lower), but the S&P rose 8.71 (0.30%), while gold had at its highest close for 2019 at $1,364.45. The lower U.S. dollar contributed to the advance in the metals, but we are still caught in a resistance quagmire between $1,350 and $1,375, with the relative strength index (RSI) screaming "Overbought!" after an $80 advance.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Scores Gains as Draghi and Powel Grow Concerned / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Super Mario delivered a surprisingly dovish speech. But he was shortly outshined by Super Jerome. Both key central banks have sent new signals to the markets for interpretation. Let’s read the tea leaves and make sense of the initial reaction in the gold market.

Draghi Repeats ‘Whatever it Takes’ In a Mini Version

As we covered one week ago in the Gold News Monitor, the ECB became more dovish on the June monetary policy meeting. The central bank postponed the possible beginning of the interest rate hiking from the end of 2019 to the mid-2020.

Our assessment was that “the European central bankers are getting more worried about the state of the Eurozone economy and may adopt an even more dovish stance in the near future.” It turned out we were right. We did not have to wait too long for a more forceful signal from the ECB. On Tuesday, Mario Draghi delivered a mini ‘whatever it takes’ speech at the annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. He said:

Friday, June 21, 2019

Potential Upside Targets for Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has finally broken out to the upside.

In Asia trading on Thursday, Gold exploded through the $1360 to $1370 resistance zone and was able to hold the gains throughout the day, closing above $1395/oz.

As we pen this article, Gold has to chance to break $1400/oz by the weekend. The close of the month (and quarter) next week will provide an additional clue as to the sustainability of this strength.

The gold stocks meanwhile have been on an absolute tear. GDX is up 16 of the past 17 trading days and has gained 23% over that period. GDXJ is up 13 of the past 17 sessions and has also gained 23% during that period.

GDX closed right at resistance at $25. It could blow through it and reach a multi-year high at $27 or it could first correct and consolidate around $25.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final article in this Gold analysis series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price into Late September 2019 :

• Current State
• Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels Support / Resistance
• Seasonal Analysis
• US Dollar / Gold
• Gold Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
• Gold Stocks

Friday, June 21, 2019

Gold Bus has left the Station / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: SurfCity

Surf City has several seats on the Bus.  Do you?

Summary: Gold closed at $1348 today according to Stockcharts but is now much higher at $1365 as I write this update.  My two longer-term weekly charts on GLD show the potential for a massive upside breakout where price could really run hard & fast.  My first chart is a 6 Year weekly showing a massive inverse Head & shoulders pattern that is ready to bust out to the upside of the inverse neckline. Remember that the bigger the pattern in Time, the more powerful the Breakout potential.  My second chart is a 2 year weekly showing a large “Cup & Handle” pattern, which is another bullish structure where price could really run.

Friday, June 21, 2019

The Gold (and Silver) Volcano Is Ready to Erupt / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

In March 1980, the University of Washington installed a seismograph system designed to monitor earthquake activity in the Cascades, with a focus on increased seismic activity around Mount St. Helens.

Starting just a few days later, a series of earthquakes, small eruptions, and steam releases took place. Near the end of the month, the peak of the mountain started to open up.

But this was only the beginning. For the next six weeks, small eruptions alternated with intermittent quiet periods. But beneath the surface, liquid magma was forcing its way upward, creating intense pressure.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged – Gold & Stocks Rally/Dollar Falls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We believe the US stock market is nearing upper resistance.  We still believe the US stock market will eventually attempt to move about the psychological levels of 3000 for the S&P, 30,000 for the Dow and 340 SPY.  This move to new all-time highs will likely result in a ”scouting party” type of price pattern where price attempts to identify new resistance, slightly above the psychological levels, then reverses back below these levels to retest support.

Our continued belief that a large pennant/flag formation is unfolding has not changed. As technical analysts, we need to wait for the new price peak form before we can identify where the upper channel of the pennant/flag formation is trending. We would urge traders to be conscious that any outside move in the stock markets as a very limited upside potential from current levels. The SPY is trading at 293 and we believe upper resistance will be found slightly above 300. Thus, we really have about a $7 or $8 move to the upside from current levels – only about 3% to 4% more room to the upside.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

US Dollar vs Gold Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my fourth video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Silver Medium-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The medium-term chart shows early signs of Silver changing trend by attempting to end it's multi-year downtrend by making a higher high of $16.20 and higher low of $14,27. A break above $16.20 would lift Silver into a new trading range of $18 and $16.20. Which if it happens will mean we won't revisit the $14.00 area for some time. So with Silver currently trading at $14.74 then time may be running out to accumulate Silver at a sub $15 price.