Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final article in this Gold analysis series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold price into Late September 2019 :
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Will Silver Soon Follow Gold’s Lead? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Gold prices have broken out of a massive multi-year consolidation pattern to the upside. That suggests the possibility of a massive multi-year rally ahead!
To be sure, there is also the possibility of some retracing and back-testing this summer before the $1,400 level is conquered for good.
The fall and winter periods are typically more conducive to big precious metals rallies.
Seasonality, however, isn’t a dependable trading tool. Some technical analysts (who will go unnamed here) wrongly turned bearish on gold and gold stocks after they put in a disappointing early spring performance and were thought to be headed straight into the summer doldrums.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Today’s Pets.com and NINJA Loan Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: Michael_Pento
The NASDAQ bubble that existed two decades ago contained a plethora of internet companies, such as Pets.com, that proved in the end to having a non-viable business model. Yet, because they enjoyed access to cheap credit, it allowed them to exist for a long time without generating positive cash flow. This, in turn, created artificial and temporary demand for all kinds of capital goods investments such as, fiber optic cable and routing equipment, which in turn served to provide a significant boost to economic growth. The consumption derived from equity prices that generated huge capital gains also proved to be a temporary and artificial support for GDP.
The same dynamic was true for the Real Estate bubble circa 2008. Subprime home buyers purchased multiple properties with no income, no job, and no assets behind their loans. This caused home prices to soar and propelled owners to extract a massive amount of equity from elevated property values that proved to be fictitious. This employed an army of lawyers, real estate brokers, and construction workers; and at the same time was a boon for the basic materials industry, home furnishing stores, etc.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Testing the Fed’s Narrative with the Fed’s Data: QT Edition / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: F_F_Wiley
“The fact that financial markets responded in very similar ways … lends credence to the view that these actions had the expected effects on markets and are thereby providing significant support to job creation and the economy.” —Ben Bernanke defends the idea that markets and the economy respond significantly to quantitative easing
“… it will be like watching paint dry, that this will just be something that runs quietly in the background.” —Janet Yellen refutes the idea that markets and the economy respond significantly to quantitative tightening
It doesn’t take much calculation to see that the Fed’s position on quantitative tightening (QT) is blatantly inconsistent with its position on quantitative easing (QE). You only need to notice that the excerpts above, taken together, violate the following pair of postulates:
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
What "Pro Traders" use to Find Profitable Trades - eBook / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
GDX Gold Stocks ETF / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article in my Gold analysis series takes a look at GDX the Gold stocks ETF:
- Current State
- Trend Analysis, MACD, Trend Channels Support / Resistance
- Seasonal Analysis
- US Dollar / Gold
- Gold Price Trend Forecast Conclusion
- Gold Stocks
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Is the Stock Market About to Drop? This Chart Says “YES” / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Sometimes it’s good to take a big picture look at the stock market.
By “big picture” I mean a monthly chart that is at least three years long.
Here’s one that caught my eye over the weekend.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Stock Market Bulls In Control, but Don't Get Complacent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The third week of June went according to the game plan as the market’s price action just followed the white line projections as we demonstrated in real-time.
If you recall, we got the eventual breakout above 2911 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) that pumped into the all time highs target. The bulls fulfilled their goal by the end of the week with the high print close of the week’s range and bears are still considered dead. Who knew?
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
What Does Facebook’s LIBRA New Crytocurrency Really Offer? / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Rodney_Johnson
The dark days of 2009 now seem like forever ago.
We didn’t know which banks would survive. The Fed made all banks take bailout money so that citizens wouldn’t know which ones were in trouble and then drain them of deposits. The Fed made bank stocks ineligible for shorting so that investors wouldn’t drive their market caps to zero.
We worried that fiat currencies, those printed by governments and backed by nothing, would go to zero.
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Why Bond Investors MUST Be Paying Attention to Puerto Rico / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Rodney_Johnson
They lie, cheat, and steal? No way!In 2014, Puerto Rico issued $3.5 billion in bonds backed by the full faith and credit of the Commonwealth. Now the island’s fiscal managers, a group known as the PROMESA board, an entity that Congress created, claims those bonds are worthless.
While investors put down their hard-earned cash to buy the bonds, the board members have claimed in court that, because the debt issuance put the island over its legal debt limit, the debt should be canceled.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
The Next Great Depression in the Making / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Harry_Dent
They lie, cheat, and steal? No way!With all eyes focused on Facebook’s cryptocurrency reveal tomorrow, what the Fed will do this Wednesday, and Slack’s IPO on Thursday, all of which we’ll address in the coming days, let’s turn our attention to another major issue that is silently unfolding: the great baby bust. More than any of the current hot events, it will have a significant impact on the future of our economy and the success of your investments…
Decades before births peaked in 2007, I was projecting it would happen. But how could I know that? Easy. Because births fall when the economy slows, especially in the Economic Winter Season, which we’re in the latter part now.
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Monday, June 24, 2019
Facebook Win-Win with Libra… and The Third Market Wave / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Harry_Dent
If you don’t know by now that Facebook released its libra whitepaper on Tuesday, you’re living under a rock. What you may not know is that bitcoin shot up on the news. That’s because libra gives credibility to the cryptocurrency market, much like AOL did when it first brought email and the internet to the masses.
But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be all sunshine and flowers from here on out. Just like AOL, Facebook faces a storm of lash backs and push backs from across the board. Regulators. Governments. Central banks. Cryptocurrency players. Citizens concerned with Facebook’s growing involvement in every aspect of our lives.
Monday, June 24, 2019
The Bad News About Record-Low Unemployment / Economics / US Economy
By: Robert_Ross
Unemployment is the lowest it’s been in 50 years.
That means most people who want to work can find a job. It also means people are making more money and buying more stuff.
All good. More people working is always positive. But a low unemployment rate is a double-edged sword.
See, the unemployment rate is cyclical. It’s always moving up or down. And at this point—3.6%—there’s almost no room for it to drop more.
That’s where the trouble starts: When the unemployment rate bottoms out, like it’s doing now, it means the economy has peaked. And a recession is probably coming…
Monday, June 24, 2019
Stock Market New High, but…! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The intermediate-term correction continues to unfold.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, June 24, 2019
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally Ends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: readtheticker
When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.
This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.
Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).
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Monday, June 24, 2019
How To Time Market Tops and Bottoms / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Following the first full weekend of Summer, we thought we would revisit our June 3, 2019 research post regarding a price pattern we love to trade – the Fibonacci Extension Bounce. This pattern sets up fairly often and the key to understanding this pattern and where these trades present real opportunity is in understanding the price dynamics behind these extensions. There are many instances where a Fibonacci price extension level will fail to promote a price bounce or rebound – and the price will just keep trending higher or lower past the extension level.
You can read our original research post here that clearly shows the bottom and our price targets.
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Monday, June 24, 2019
5 basic tips to help mitigate the vulnerability inherent in email communications / Personal_Finance / Cyber Crime
By: Travis_Bard
Email is one of the most vulnerable areas in any network infrastructure. Why? Because any time you send an email, it leaves one network and moves into another.
While on transit, a sniffer can read the email, or, one of the servers between sender and receiver can intercept and save the email.
Monday, June 24, 2019
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
“For twelve consecutive years, gold was up every single year whether there were inflation fears, deflation fears; strong dollar, weak dollar; political stability, political instability. It didn’t matter – strong oil, weak oil. . . Gold went up for twelve years. . . When gold embarks upon its next move, I believe that you will see that long wave take gold relatively quickly, but it will be measured in years, up to a $3000 to $5000 target that I believe is fundamentally justified based on the facts we have today.” –– Thomas Kaplan, Electrum Group (Bloomberg’s Peer to Peer Conversations with David Rubinstein)
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Monday, June 24, 2019
Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence / Politics / AI
By: N_Walayat
Every search we do feeds the Google AI with more and more data about who we really are and thus how to predict our actions under a wide variety of circumstances. Throw into the mix Google's continuing expansion into every aspect of our lives coupled with the exponential growth in processing power then we are perhaps no more than a year or so away when Google's AI will surpass that which even the smartest of humans are able to understand what it's getting up to with potentially dire consequences for mankind unless we try to keep pace with the machine intelligence by upgrading ourselves both mentally and physically which is the focus of this video.
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Monday, June 24, 2019
Trump’s Trade War Is Paralyzing Business / Economics / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
Last week the Business Roundtable, an organization of large company leaders, released its quarterly CEO Economic Outlook Index.The index tracks what executives expect for sales, capital spending, and hiring over the next six months.
The good news is the index has been above its historic average for 10 consecutive quarters. The bad news is, it fell the last five of those quarters.
CEO optimism peaked in Q1 2018, following a climb that began in Q4 2016. Now in Q2 2019, much of the confidence is gone.
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