Monday, September 23, 2019
Stock Market Top Almost Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 23, 2019
Zimbabwe's New Currency Collapses and Inflation Surges / Economics / Inflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
The most important price in an economy is the exchange rate between the local currency and the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar. As long as there is an active black‐market (read: free market) for currency and the data are available, changes in the black‐market exchange rate can be reliably transformed into accurate estimates of countrywide inflation rates—if the annual inflation rates exceed 25%. The economic principle of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) allows for this transformation.
I compute the implied annual inflation rates with high‐frequency data and report them on a daily basis. PPP is used to translate changes in the black‐market exchange rates into annual inflation rates. For the countries that I follow each day, the table below shows the annual rates for the six countries with the highest inflation rates.
Monday, September 23, 2019
Thomas Cook COLLAPSE! 300,000 Passengers Stranded, Flights Cancelled, Planes Grounded / ConsumerWatch / Airline Sector
By: HGR
One of the world's oldest and largest travel companies, Thomas Cook has gone bust, ceased trading, all planes have been grounded whilst all planes in the air have been ordered to return back to the UK and all booked future flights and holidays have been cancelled. With the Thomas Cook website stating that the company has entered into compulsory liquidation.
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Sunday, September 22, 2019
Massive Stock Market Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researcher team believes a massive global market price reversion/correction may be setting up and may only be a few days or weeks away from initiating. Our team of dedicated researchers and market analysts have been studying the markets, precious metals, and most recently the topping formation in the ES (S&P 500 Index). We believe the current price pattern formation is leading into a price correction/reversion event that could push the US major indexed lower by at least 12 to 15%.
Historically, these types of price reversion events are typically considered “price exploration”. Over time, investors push a pricing/valuation bias into the markets because of expectations and perceptions related to future market valuations and outcomes. What happens when these current valuation levels and future expectations shift perspective from optimistic to potentially overvalued is that a price reversion event takes place. This happens when investors shift focus, determine value exists at a different price level and abandon previous valuation expectations.
The rotation in price is actually a very healthy process that must take place from time to time. The structure of price waves (for example Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick, Gann and other price theories) are based on this process of price rising to overbought levels, then retracing to oversold levels – again and again as price trends higher or lower. This is the process of “price exploration” – just as we are describing. In order for price to trend higher or lower over time, price must move in the wave like pattern to identify true value (retracement/reversion) and extended value (a rally or selloff) in a type of wave formation.
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Sunday, September 22, 2019
How Russia Seized Control of the Uranium Market / Commodities / Uranium
By: Richard_Mills
Critical Mass - A point or situation at which change occurs.
Just over a year ago Cameco made the difficult decision to close its MacArthur River and Key Lake mines, in response to low uranium prices, leaving the Canadian company’s flagship Cigar Lake facility as its only operating mine left in northern Saskatchewan, home to vast reserves of the nuclear fuel.
The mine closures by Cameco were preceded by 20% production cuts in Kazakhstan, the number one uranium-producing country. The former Soviet bloc nation has said 2020-21 output will not rise above 2019 levels. In Canada, the second largest U producer, 2018 production was cut in half to 7,000 tonnes.
An estimated 35% of uranium supply has been stripped from the market since Kazakhstan’s supply reductions in December 2017.
While the mine closures kicked up the price of uranium in 2018, they haven’t been enough to build momentum. Spot uranium finished last year up just over 20%. Year to date 2019, triuranium octoxide, or U3O8, is down a disappointing 11.9%, trading at $25.25 per pound, as of Sept. 19.
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 2nd of my 2 part latest update to my stock market trend forecast for 2019 (Part1). Also note that the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide).
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer and other narrow range price bars. These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future. The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).
Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs. The reason they form is that price is unable to rally or fall far enough within a normal trading day to project broader range types of Japanese Candlestick patterns and these rotational/top/bottom types of Japanese candlestick patterns are often found at or near key reversal points in price. When they form in a series, like we are seeing currently, it is a very ominous warning that price will react in an explosive movement – either UP or DOWN. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Gold Leads, Will the Rest Follow? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Fund manager Matt Geiger provides his overview of the resource market and shares some principles he is using to invest in today's market. The natural resource landscape has shifted dramatically since the end of 2018. At the time, we were still nursing our wounds from an unexpectedly vicious 2018 and hoping to avoid a repeat performance in 2019. I did speculate that "we may have already exited the bear market as of late December 2018. The nickel price is up roughly 25% YTD, the gold price is up roughly 10% since early December, the TSXV is up 15% since mid-December, and the MJG partnership itself was up 20.5% in January alone."
In hindsight, it looks like we did indeed exit the bear market as of late December 2018. The nickel price is now up 54% YTD. The price of gold is now up 25% since earlier December. The MJG partnership was up 42% in the first half of the year. The major diversified miners have hit 52-week highs within the past 60 days. The major precious metal royalty names have hit either multi-year or all-time highs recently. The same applies to the GDX and GDXJ. These are the types of moves you'd expect to see in a mining bull market.
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Are Cowboys Really Dreaming of... Electric Trucks? / Companies / Electric Cars
By: Rodney_Johnson
The title of this piece is a play on a book, but the question stands: Will cowboys, or anyone else who buys a truck, be interested in an electric version? Ford and GM are betting their companies on it, which could be a huge mistake.A Truck-Loving Family
Somewhere along the way, we became a truck family. My wife wanted a small 4×4 to navigate flooded streets, which makes sense given where we live. She ended up with a Chevrolet Colorado, and couldn’t be happier. For whatever reason, my younger daughter always wanted a Ford F-150, so she drove off to college in a jacked up, 4×4 SuperCrew. Granted, it was used, but still pretty cool.
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Gold among Negative-Yielding Bonds / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The amount of global debt with negative yields soared to $16 trillion, or more than 25 percent of the market. This number has nearly tripled since October 2018. In July, even the 30-year German government bonds went negative for the first time ever, while Nordea Bank, a leading Danish bank, said it will begin offering 20-year fixed-rate mortgages with zero interest, as well as 30-year mortgages at minus 0.5 percent. Isn’t this economic madness? And what does it imply for the gold market?
Normally, instead of spending it themselves, lenders offer the borrowers money, in return receiving the promise of being paid back, and interest. Negative bond yields seem to turn the credit relations upside down. But after closer examination, it turns out that the negative yields do not necessarily deny the laws of economics. The key to understand it is grasping that negative yield to maturity does not mean negative coupon payments. Negative yields imply losses for investors who purchase these bonds and hold them until maturity, not for all bond investors.
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Meanwhile, Socialist Elizabeth Warren Surges Past Biden
It’s been a big week of geopolitical strife and potential crisis points for financial markets. The week began with one of the biggest single day oil spikes on record, then saw the Federal Reserve lose control of its own interest rate in the repo market before announcing another rate cut.
Yet these and other developments are having surprisingly little impact on Wall Street. We aren’t seeing huge stock market gyrations or a mass migration by investors into precious metals. The S&P 500 is essentially flat for the week while gold prices are trading modestly higher.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark Fed funds rate by a quarter point. Though the move was widely expected, it was not without controversy.
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Uber Stock Price Will Crash on November 6 / Companies / Self Driving Cars
By: Stephen_McBride
By Justin Spittler :
Circle November 6 on your calendar.
That day, one of America’s most controversial disruptor stocks will likely get crushed.
If history’s any indication, it could easily plunge 10% or even 15%.
Rumors will fly that the company is going out of business.
But if you know what’s coming, you have nothing to worry about. You could even capitalize on the fear.
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if November 6 turns out to be the best opportunity to buy this beaten down stock ahead of a big bounce.
Friday, September 20, 2019
Semiconductor Stocks Sector Market & Economic Leader / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Gary_Tanashian
The signals have persisted since the May lows in the Semi sector and in the broad markets. Nominal Semiconductor (esp. Semi Equipment) stocks and the sector’s market leadership have remained intact into our window for a projected cycle bottom, which was the 2nd half of 2019.
This post shines a favorable light on the Semiconductor sector while at the same time acknowledging that may have little to do with the broad market’s fortunes as Q3’s reporting begins next month. In other words, while we have been projecting new highs for the S&P 500 on the very short-term, there are fundamental and technical reasons to believe the stock market could be significantly disturbed in Q4. But the Semi sector is an economic early bird. Let’s remember that.
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Learning Artificial Intelligence - What is a Neural Network? / InvestorEducation / AI
By: Adnaan_Walayat
Want to get started in Artificial Intelligence? We'll in this series of 10 videos for beginners I cover what you need to know to get started in AI. By the end of which you will be ready to progress onto the next level, creating your own neural networks:
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Precious Metals Setting Up Another Momentum Base/Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just as we predicted, precious metals are setting up another extended momentum base/bottom that appears to be aligning with our prediction of an early October 2019 new upside price leg.
Recent news of the US Fed decreasing the Fed Funds Rate by 25bp as well as strength in the US stock market and US Dollar as eased fears and concerns across the global markets. These concerns and fears are still very real as the overnight credit market has continue to illustrate. Yet, the precious metals have retraced from recent highs and begun to form a momentum base which will likely become the floor for the next move higher.
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Small Marketing Budget? No Problem! / Companies / Marketing
By: Sumeet_Manhas
It is a tough world out there for small businesses. Large companies with big budgets have the capacity to splash the cash on elaborate marketing campaigns. They can afford to take risks. However, for small businesses they need to get it right the first time, and they need to look for innovative avenues which won’t cost excessive amounts. Read on to discover some key marketing methods that should be utilised by these companies…
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Volatile trading is calming down, revealing several opportunities. The euro has retraced its yesterday’s downswing, the Japanese yen is strengthening – just as the Canadian dollar is. Swiss franc is another currency we’re keeping a close eye on. But how does it translate into our currency trading plans?
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
Fed Cuts Interest Rates and Gold Drops. Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
History may not repeat itself to the letter but it certainly rhymes. That’s what the Fed watchers would say now. The Fed cut the interest rates for the second time this year and the price of gold declined again. What is going on?
Fed Trims Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points
Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on September 17-18th. In line with expectations, the U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, for the second time this year:
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
Silver Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2/2 of my Silver Price 2019 trend forecast update - Part1 - Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update
So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
Baby Boomers Are the Worst Investors in the World / Personal_Finance / Investing 2019
By: Jared_Dillian
Baby boomers, man.
Before I begin, a good rule of thumb for anything I write: don’t take anything personally.
Baby Boomers are the worst investors in the world.
I have seen it with my own two eyes. They got gorked up on dot-com stocks in 1999, then got rinsed. They got gorked up on stocks again in 2007, then got rinsed.
They are gorked up on stocks again.