Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market. Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.
The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event. Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.
As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets. Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply. Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days. Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events. That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management. The next few weeks may be full of surprises.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
JPMorgan’s Top Metals Trader in the Crosshairs for Illegal Gold and Silver Manipulation / Commodities / Market Manipulation
By: MoneyMetals
Michael Nowak, the global head of trading for both base and precious metals at JP Morgan Chase, has been charged by the US Justice department for his role in an illegal market manipulation operation. Executive Directors Gregg Smith and Christopher Jordan were also indicted.
The three are the latest targets in a widening DOJ criminal probe.
Nowak and Smith and Jordan are the third, fourth and fifth persons to be charged in the criminal price rigging scheme at JPMorgan. They may not be the last. The bank is the most infamous amongst precious metals investors who have been crying foul over obvious price manipulation for years.
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Philippines, China and US: Joint Exploration Vs Rearmament and Nuclear Weapons / Politics / Nuclear Weapons
By: Dan_Steinbock
President Duterte’s joint exploration framework with China is a historical breakthrough. But since it has potential to de-escalate tensions over time, it is opposed by those interests that prefer rearmament, even if that would lead to a split of Southeast Asia and new nuclearization.
In early 2018, the Philippines and China agreed to set up a special panel to work out how the two could jointly explore oil and gas in parts of the South China Sea that both sides claim without having to address the issue of sovereignty. That was something of a breakthrough.
Last fall, President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the Philippines resulted in the bilateral memorandum of understanding on oil and gas development in the contested South China Sea (SCS). It was one of the some 30 documents signed during Xi’s visit in Manila.
Following a recent meeting with President Xi, Duterte said the Philippines could set aside the ruling of the international arbitral tribunal on China’s SCS claims, in exchange for a joint oil and gas exploration deal with Beijing.
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
What Are The Real Upside Targets For Crude Oil Price Post Drone Attack? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After the news of the drone attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refinery, traders knew this week would be full of bigger price moves, reversals and some real opportunity for profits. We were also well aware of the risks of engaging in these market moves prior to fully understanding the dynamics of this event. We heard from many of our friends in the industry about open positions that were not properly scaled to deal with risk – and we know some of our friends took a hit early today.
The real questions before skilled technical traders are:
What will happen with Oil and where will price find the first level of resistance?
What will happen to the US and foreign major markets related to this supply disruption?
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Curse of Technology Weapons / Politics / US Military
By: BATR
From the very time of Cain killing Abel, the invention of more efficient weapons for violent conflict has been a consistent aspect of human endeavor. The conclusion that modern society refuses to accept the reality is that this curse is a direct result of the fallen nature from disobeying God by eating of the forbidden fruit. There is a reason why the high tech totalitarians and trillion dollar behemoth, chose the name APPLE. Weaponry can take many forms but for most of history, armies and navies fought to the death to defend their ruling elites or to extend their empire aspirations. The only such consequence is a theater of operations for dead bodies. For centuries the guidance of Sun Tzu was followed as reflected in Carl von Clausewitz's famous dictum:
"The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy's not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable." - Sun Tzu
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up, Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins me for a conversation on the latest central banking shenanigans, why he believes the economy may heat up again in the near term, and why the war on cash and the move to digital money will continue to drive people into gold. So don’t miss another great interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets are testing support levels this week. Gold has been hanging around the $1,500 level while silver trades sideways through Thursday’s close at just above $18 an ounce.
As of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,498 per ounce, down 0.7% for the week. Silver, meanwhile, now shows a weekly loss of 2.0%, with most of that loss coming here today, to bring spot prices to $17.89.
The bright spot in the metals space this week is palladium. The catalytic metal pierced through $1,600 an ounce on Thursday to record a new record high. Palladium prices now check in at $1,609 after gaining $60 or 3.9% on the week.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Sumeet_Manhas
While earning is a tasking process in itself, keeping up with the money management further gets arduous when expenses are skyrocketing. This means you need to remain watchful for smart ways to churn out some cash without having to invest much. Talking about which, the internet has now enabled individuals to convert their leisure hours into decent wealth generation routines.
However, make sure to evaluate risks thoroughly before you proceed with any investment option in order to get secure returns. It’s vital to invest your hard-earned money in a way that you don’t have to be stressed about obtaining the profits. Keeping this into account, some seamless investment options are discussed in this article so that you can have multiple earning channels.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Trading Natural Gas As The Season Changes / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Avi_Gilburt
Andy Hecht: Natural gas can be one of the most volatile commodities that trade on the futures market. Since 1990, the price has traded from lows at $1.02 to a high at $15.65 per MMBtu. Over the past three decades, the fundamentals for the natural gas market gave changed dramatically. Discoveries of massive natural gas reserves in the Marcellus and Utica share regions of the US and technological advances in hydraulic fracking increased the supply side of the fundamental equation.
Since necessity is the mother of invention, natural gas has replaced coal in the US for power generation. At the same time, technology to liquefy natural gas has expanded the addressable market for the energy commodity. Natural gas used to depend on the US pipeline network for delivery. Today, it travels around the world in liquid form by ocean vessels. Therefore, the demand side of the fundamental equation in natural gas expanded with the supply side.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break / Commodities / Uranium
By: Richard_Mills
One week ago Cameco announced it will maintain low output levels until uranium prices recover. The Canadian uranium miner also said it might cut production further, having already closed four mines in Canada and laid off 2,000 of its workers in the uranium mining hub of Saskatchewan.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
These Indicators Point to an Early 2020 Economic Downturn / Economics / Recession 2020
By: Harry_Dent
The yield curve first flirted with inversion earlier this year. That occurred clearly recently when the 2-year Treasury bond yield crossed below the 10-year, and it has done that further more recently.But that indicator can lead by nine months to 22 months. And Treasury bond yields have been so manipulated in the last decade of QE that who knows how meaningful that is anyway…
But certainly, this indicator is more of a warning of falling growth, as the real trend is that long-term bond yields are plummeting as the bond market sees slowing U.S. and global growth. That has been a big part of the recent correction in stocks.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Gold When Global Insanity Prevails / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger uses storytelling and personal experience to unpack the myths and machinations behind the precious metals and financial markets. "Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper." —Ayn Rand
Why don't we start things off a tad differently this evening? Let me relate to you all a parable from the Book of Quantitative Easing where all is good and noble in the world of government oversight, the most widely used oxymoron in the history of mankind.
Granny Smith, now in her late nineties, wakes up one morning and finds that her dear husband for nigh-on seventy years has gone on to meet his Maker. But alas, as distraught as one would expect her to be, she is covertly delighted because, well, old Egbert Smith was not exactly the man she married and being forced to change his diaper and his bedsheets each night had grown both tiresome and difficult.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Stock Market Looking Toppy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
The current bull market has advanced for 10 years. Is it near the end of its run? How much more upside is left?
This is a question that we receive from investors at an increasing rate over the last couple of years.
Our answer is not definitive, but is based on long-term models that continually illustrate the same approximate conclusion.
Our first model is constructed on 130+ years of data. It is based on the relative performance between deflationary assets (Dow Jones Industrial Average) verses inflationary assets (Commodity Research Bureau), or the Dow verses the CRB.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week ended with the S&P, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq stalling near recent highs. From a technical perspective, both Thursday and Friday setup small range price bars (Doji candles or small Spinning Top type bars) after the upside price move on Wednesday. These are indicative of price consolidation and indecision.
The news events that initiated this rally, nearly a week ago, continue to drive sentiment in the markets. Yet the news from the ECB that new stimulus efforts would begin with $20 Billion Euros monthly invested in assets until they decide it is not required any longer suggests the EU is desperate to support extended growth and some renewed inflation. This move by the EU pushed banks and the finance sector higher while the US stock market stalled near the end of the week.
At these lofty levels, almost all of our indicators and predictive modeling systems are suggesting the US stock markets are well within an overbought mode. Of course, the markets can continue in this mode for extended periods of time as central banks and external efforts to support the asset/stock market continues, at some point investors/traders will recognize the imbalance in price/demand/supply as a fear of a price contraction.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
What If Gold Is NOT In A New Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
What if it’s not a new bull market for gold? What if gold prices are going lower – not higher?
Think it can’t happen? Think again.
In December 1987, gold prices stood at just over $500.00 per ounce. They had been on a tear for the previous three years after hitting a post-peak low of just under $300.00 per ounce in February 1985.
The increase in gold’s price of $200.00 per ounce may not sound like much, but it represents a sixty-seven percent increase over that three year period. Coming on the heels of a similar percentage decline after reaching an all-time high of $850.00 per ounce in January 1980, it was a welcome salve for those who had been wounded so severely.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Two things should be obvious: We are in a totally artificial recovery due only to global printing of $13 trillion and more recently, tax cuts; and this is now the longest rally and economic recovery in U.S. exceeding 10 years.There has been a recession every 10 years since I was a kid: 1962, 1970, 1973-1975, 1980-1982, 1990-1991, 2001, and most recently 2008-2009.
The sunspot cycle has captured them all and that has averaged a little over 10 years since 1900. That cycle is near a bottom and is not due to turn up until at least late 2020 and more likely 2021 or later.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
The Disconnect Between Millennials and Real Estate / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Rodney_Johnson
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the tribulations associated with selling a home. We were in the thick of inspections, appraisals, etc. As we sold our home, and worked on a separate home purchase at the same time.Then our home sale fell through, which killed my purchase. While I might not be heeding Harry’s advice to be real estate free, I’m also not so bullheaded as to own two homes that function as primary residences.
Just like baseball, there’s no crying in real estate. We wiped the slate clean and started over. A new buyer showed up within 10 days.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Capitalizing on Changing Demographics / Stock-Markets / Demographics
By: Robert_Ross
Part of it has to do with where we live. South Central Texas is a thriving, job-creating area, and it draws millions of young workers, so children seem to be everywhere. If you’re looking for a place with adult-friendly restaurants and theaters, this isn’t it.But part of it is my age – or more specifically, my stage of life, although the two go hand-in-hand.
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Sunday, September 15, 2019
Tech Giants Will Crash in the Next Stock Market Downturn / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Robert_Ross
Some of your “safe” stocks aren’t as safe as you might think.
And now is a good time to sell them.
Let me explain…
As you likely know, US stocks have shot up and down many times over the last month. In August alone, there were five days when the S&P 500 rose or fell at least 1%.
That might not sound like a lot, but it’s a pretty big deal.
Sunday, September 15, 2019
Will Draghi’s Swan Song Revive the Eurozone? And Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was a hot monetary policy meeting yesterday. Faced with slow inflation and bleak growth, the ECB eased again, delivering a fresh stimulus package. What does it mean for the gold market?
ECB Strikes Back in Response to Subdued Inflation
Amid the continued shortfall of inflation, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points from -0.40 to -0.50. Yes, you read it correctly, from negative 0.40 to negative 0.50. The subzero madness has deepened in the Eurozone. What is more, the central bank announced that the ultralow interest rates would remain until inflation reaches the target:
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