Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has been warning that the US stock market price rally over the past few months has been more of a zombie-land price rally than a true valuation rally.  Our researchers believe the continued push higher has been more about capital seeking safety away from foreign risk and into US Dollar based assets than it has been about anything fundamental or valuation based.  Over the past few days, our researchers identified another rally like this that happened recently and wanted to highlight the eventual outcome of this type of Zombie-Rally. Before you continue, take a couple of seconds and join our free trend signals email list.

Zombie-Rallies happen in the market when there are really no other alternatives but to “keep doing what seems to have been successful over the past few months or years”.  A good example of this is the DOT COM rally that continued to push higher and higher even though investors and traders could clearly see the wheels were coming off the train and companies were not able to achieve profits to measure up to proper valuations.  This is a measure of GREED becoming a driving force behind investor sentiment.  Who’s going to go against the markets when the trend bias is continuing to push higher and the risks of shorting far outweigh the risks associated with following the herd.

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas

By: Andrew_Butter

Why Shale was once Viable at $45WTI but it’s not anymore. That’s why OPEC can dictate the price again.

• Some shale operators now say they can’t make money at $55; so they are cutting-back. But in 2017 when WTI averaged $50; output-growth was 60% higher than today. How come?
• In 2015, five-hundred frac-spreads, bought and paid for; some from profits, many at fire-sale; were idle; so day-rates plunged; and so, helped by multi-pads and cheap sand, shale re-booted.
• In June 2019 all those spreads were working.  But now, for shale to continue to grow, more are needed. Except at $55 operators can’t pay the pumpers the day-rates they need to buy new.
• CAT is crying and Halliburton is stacking; holding-out for better rates. Rig count has plunged; there’s no point drilling if you can’t find a cheap frac-spread to complete.
• Now OPEC & Co can push the price up to $75 WTI without fear of sparking a third boom. But they may make the mistake they made in 2015; trying to kill-off shale. If they do, they will fail.

Over the past year the penny that shale-oil output growth was going down, not up, finally dropped for most commentators (1-to-7). Although EIA, IEA, OPEC and Rystad Energy are all sticking with their predictions for a 900,000 bpd or so build in shale production in 2020 (8-to-10). They say the slump in growth which started in June 2018, was because of pipeline constraints in Permian (11). But those were fixed in December 2018, yet output-growth kept going down.

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: N_Walayat

Here's examples of dodgy Lib Dem leaflets being posted into the letter boxes of Sheffield voters. Especially those living in the Hallam constituency where there is a battle between Labour and the Lib Dems that is likely to see Labour lose their seat to the Lib Dems after the disastrous term of Jared O' Mara. That follows the disaster that is the city council and it's policy on felling thousands of Sheffield's street trees at a time of climate catastrophe.

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark / ConsumerWatch / Land Rover

By: HGR

If you own a Land Rover Discovery Sport then your likely going to get a Brake Pads Worn dash warning a lot earlier than you were expecting to do because of uneven wear as this video illustrates of what to expect when you own and drive a land rover discovery sport, that here gave a Brake pads worn dash warning at less than 17,000 miles driven, which is set against many cars that can go for as long as 70,000 miles before they need new brake pads.

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Steve_Marks

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other / Personal_Finance / Virtual Reality

By: Submissions

Monday, December 02, 2019

The Narrative About Gold is Changing Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Teaser: Let’s face it, we live in a world of radical uncertainty. Yet we’re supposed to make perfectly rational decisions – so, how do we cope with the unknown? We tell narratives, and form our decisions around them! Let’s explore the narratives in the financial markets for it reveals their importance to the gold market.

Let’s face it, we live in a world of radical uncertainty. There are not only many known unknowns in the world, but the same can’t be said of unknown unknowns. We simply do not known what we don’t know. In other words, the problem is not risk. The notion of risk implies that we can compute probability. This is what the mainstream economists assume: we know the odds, so there is a single optimizing solution to each problem. But the real issue is that we do not know the probabilities, because we even do not know how the world works. You see, the probability applies in a casino but not in a real world. You are certainly aware of substantial difference between roulette or weather forecasting, and the scope of new inventions or the prospect of war, elections or the asset prices. As Keynes wrote (at least once we agree with him), “About these matters there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know.”

Monday, December 02, 2019

Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As the Thanksgiving holiday passes, traders should begin to understand that liquidity and volume in the US and global markets typically begin to diminish over the next 30 to 45+ days.  Typically, between mid-November and early January, trading volumes weaken dramatically as institutional and retail investors move away from the markets in preparation for year-end celebrations and tax planning.

Historically, the month of November is vastly more positive than negative in terms of overall price action.  Over the past 21 years in the NQ, a total of 15 months have resulted in an average of +122.75 pts whereas only 6 months have resulted in an average of -194.83 pts.  This suggests the downside price moves, when they happen, are nearly 40% larger than the average upside price move for November.  So far for 2019, the NQ is +320.25 pts for November 2019.

Monday, December 02, 2019

A Complete Guide To Finding The Best CFD Broker / Personal_Finance / Learn to Trade

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Monday, December 02, 2019

See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon / Politics / Social Issues

By: James_Quinn

And if the cloud bursts thunder in your ear
You shout and no one seems to hear
And if the band you’re in starts playing different tunes
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon

Brain Damage, Pink Floyd

And if the dam breaks open many years too soon
And if there is no room upon the hill
And if your head explodes with dark forebodings too
I’ll see you on the dark side of the moon

Brain Damage, Pink Floyd

Monday, December 02, 2019

Will Lib Dems Win Sheffield Hallam From Labour? General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

At the 2017 General Election Labour surprised all including themselves by winning Sheffield Hallam, and ejecting the former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg from Parliament.

Unfortunately for Labour Jared O' Mara turned out to be a total disaster, heralding 2 years of chaos and failure to represent the constituents of Sheffield Hallam that included being suspended from the party, all at a time when the local population was in open revolt to the insane policies emanating out of the city council.

Sunday, December 01, 2019

Stock Market Where Are We?  / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely building an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Sunday, December 01, 2019

Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tutition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!

All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!

AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My first article in this UK general election series concluded in a core forecast of seats for the Conservative party based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections - UK house prices momentum.

The remaining articles in this series in the countdown to voting day (December 12th) aim to fine tune my core expectation towards a final seats per party forecast.

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Growing Inequality Unrest Threatens Mining Industry / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Richard_Mills

In the 1986 classic ‘Platoon’, Charlie Sheen’s character Chris Taylor tells everyone that he dropped out of college to serve in the Vietnam War. This sets him apart from the other grunts and makes Taylor seem noble and patriotic, giving up school to go fight in a war. But his credo is soon shot down by a black soldier nick-named King, played by Keith David, who tells him: 

“You got to be rich in the first place to think like that. Everybody know, the poor are always being f&$#8! over by the rich. Always have, always will.”

Thirty-five years later, King’s world-weary cynicism is just as relevant. The rich are getting richer, inequality is on the rise, and the middle class, which since the 1950s has been the backbone of the US economy, is shrinking. 

Saturday, November 30, 2019

When Fed Says That Everything Is Fine, Smart People Buy Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed has published this month the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. Generally speaking, the level of vulnerabilities in the financial system has moved little since the publication of the May edition of the report. The most of the US central banks’ observations are reassuring: investor appetite for risk generally appears to have returned to a level in the middle of its historical range, while the core of the financial sector appears resilient, with lever­age low and funding risk limited relative to the levels of recent decades.

What is very important in light of the causes of the Great Recession, the largest U.S. banks remain strongly capitalized, while household borrowing remains at a modest level relative to income, as one can see in the chart below. Isn’t that splendid news? Isn’t this time different? It’s bad news for the gold market?

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Conspiracy Theories Are Killing This Nation / Politics / Conspiracy Theory

By: Jared_Dillian

There is a burgeoning conspiracy theory that Jeffrey Epstein was murdered in his jail cell.

Although it’s not really burgeoning, is it? Most people really believe this. I think once a majority of people believe a conspiracy theory, it becomes fact.

Out of all conspiracy theories, this one is certainly plausible—Epstein potentially had a lot of damaging information on a lot of rich, powerful people.

Saturday, November 30, 2019

How to Clip a Budgies / Parakeets Wings, Cut / Trim Bird's Flight Feathers / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets

By: Anika_Walayat

This video shows how to clip your Budgie / Parakeets flight feathers to stop them from flying away. Budgies have 10 flight feathers, the more you trim of them you bird will have a lesser ability to fly both for your birds safety in not flying to mirrors or windows or worse escape. Also so that you can take your budgie it outdoors for fun in the garden or local park without it flying away.

Friday, November 29, 2019

Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Big systemically important banks could be in failure mode. A small group of big Western banks are in deep trouble. The officials might keep it all secret, working feverishly behind the curtains to patch their myriad holes with paper. These SIFI banks are likely major recipients of USFed overnight aid in the form of Repurchase (REPO) and Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) activity, plus gigantic hidden funny money infusions. Beware the advent of chaos, with lost control. Possibly the main markets will remain tame under tight controls, while the precious metals prices zoom to multiples higher. Always keep in mind then when the POMO volume rises significantly, it means that QE has returned. When the volume is tremendous, it means that Infinite QE is here. Since Chairman Powell admitted in May that QE was a permanent feature with monetary policy, we must conclude that we are at the doorstep of Infinite QE Forever. Thus the Gold price will be required to double and the Silver price triple. All in time. It is written; it will be done.

Friday, November 29, 2019

Use the “Ferrari Pattern” to Predictably Make 431% with IPOs / Companies / IPOs

By: Stephen_McBride

Justin Spittler : Ferrari isn’t used to losing.

Its $250,000+ sports cars are the epitome of luxury, style, and exclusivity. When you see one cruising down the street, most people can’t help but stop and stare.

Ferrari started as a racing company. Founder Enzo Ferrari handcrafted finely tuned speed machines whose sole purpose was to go faster than any other car could.

Winning is in Ferrari’s blood. It has won a record 238 Grand Prix races. Yet recently, Ferrari looked like a loser.