Friday, November 29, 2019

Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Big systemically important banks could be in failure mode. A small group of big Western banks are in deep trouble. The officials might keep it all secret, working feverishly behind the curtains to patch their myriad holes with paper. These SIFI banks are likely major recipients of USFed overnight aid in the form of Repurchase (REPO) and Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) activity, plus gigantic hidden funny money infusions. Beware the advent of chaos, with lost control. Possibly the main markets will remain tame under tight controls, while the precious metals prices zoom to multiples higher. Always keep in mind then when the POMO volume rises significantly, it means that QE has returned. When the volume is tremendous, it means that Infinite QE is here. Since Chairman Powell admitted in May that QE was a permanent feature with monetary policy, we must conclude that we are at the doorstep of Infinite QE Forever. Thus the Gold price will be required to double and the Silver price triple. All in time. It is written; it will be done.

Friday, November 29, 2019

Use the “Ferrari Pattern” to Predictably Make 431% with IPOs / Companies / IPOs

By: Stephen_McBride

Justin Spittler : Ferrari isn’t used to losing.

Its $250,000+ sports cars are the epitome of luxury, style, and exclusivity. When you see one cruising down the street, most people can’t help but stop and stare.

Ferrari started as a racing company. Founder Enzo Ferrari handcrafted finely tuned speed machines whose sole purpose was to go faster than any other car could.

Winning is in Ferrari’s blood. It has won a record 238 Grand Prix races. Yet recently, Ferrari looked like a loser.

Friday, November 29, 2019

Tax-Loss Selling Drives Down Gold and Silver Junior Stock Prices / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Money manager Adrian Day looks at three junior resource companies whose stocks are down significantly in the past few months, and attributes some of this to tax-loss selling. He also lists a handful of companies he believes are best buys right now.

Vista Gold Corp. (VGZ:NYSE.MKT; VGZ:TSX, US$0.59) has published an updated prefeasibility study (PFS) on its Mt Todd project in the Northern Territories in Australia, the largest undeveloped gold project in that country. The revisions to the old PFS include updating both the gold price (upward to $1,350/ounce) and the Australian dollar (downward to US$0.70). Both of these revisions help boost the returns on the project, as did other improvements, including on gold recoveries. Using the sensitivity table for today's prices, the project has a net present value (NPV, with 5% discount) of $1.15 billion and an international rate of return (IRR) of over 30%.

Friday, November 29, 2019

We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

You really need to watch this video of a recent conversation between Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones. Their part is about the first 40 minutes.
In this video, Ray highlights some problematic similarities between our times and the 1930s. Both feature:

1. a large wealth gap

2. the absence of effective monetary policy

3. a change in the world order, in this case the rise of China and the potential for trade wars/technology wars/capital wars.

He threw in a few quick comments as their time was running out, alluding to the potential for the end of the world reserve system and the collapse of fiat monetary regimes.

Friday, November 29, 2019

How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday Bargains and Avoid FAKE Sales / ConsumerWatch / Amazon

By: HGR

Amazon Black Friday Sale has already been going for a week with more deals likely to be added today. However, before you rush to click the buy button, understand that many of the sales are FAKES, where items on sale during Black Friday have recently sold for a lower price!

The good news is there is a way to spot the genuine bargains which is the focus of this video across a number of product categories. So watch the video before you shop for how to spot the real vs fake sales on Amazon.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Central Banks’ Gold Buying and Repatriation Spree / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Central banks’ purchases and repatriations of gold have caught our attention once again. In October, Serbia’s central bank bought 9 tons of gold, following in the footsteps of many other central banks that have been adding to their gold reserves recently, including Russia, Hungary, and Poland.

Nine tons may seem to be a modest purchase, but the transaction was worth $438 million at $1,503 an ounce. And it has raised Serbia’s gold reserves to 30.4 tons, constituting about 10 percent of the country’s total reserves. Importantly, the National Bank of Serbia could carry on with its purchases, as it got clear message from the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic to continue boosting gold reserves in order to be better prepared for the economic crisis: “I think we’ll continue doing that because of what we see in which direction the crisis in the world is moving,” Vucic told the press.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Another Precious Metals’ Reversal Coming Right Up! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold reversed yesterday, and so did the rest of the precious metal sector. Mining stocks and – what’s important – silver showed strength relative to gold and rallied even more than gold. Silver’s strength is important because it indicates that we are already in the second half of the short-term upswing in the precious metals market. If there only was a tool that would provide us with a more precise time prediction… Oh wait, there is one. And it just worked perfectly yesterday.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Stock Market 100% Measured Moves May Signal A Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops/bottoms is the “100% Measured Move” structure.  This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction.  These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.

The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend.  We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately.  The explosive middle-trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen.  Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Don’t Look for Investing Advice in the Media / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Jared_Dillian

When I was a trader at Lehman Brothers, I was told not to talk to the media under any circumstances. If a reporter calls and says, “I’m so-and-so, and I’m from The Wall Street Journal,” you hang up. Click.

There doesn’t seem to be a good relationship between the traders and the reporters who cover them! I wonder why that is?

You might have heard about the incident at the Des Moines Register a month or two ago. A young man went to a football game and held up a sign on camera, asking for money for beer, as a joke. He got $1 million. He donated it—to a children’s hospital.

A reporter at the Des Moines Register decided to do a story on the young man. He dug up some old racist tweets from this guy—the guy that donated $1 million to a children’s hospital—and published them, in an attempt to “cancel” him.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Why You Should Buy Trailer Park Stocks / Companies / Investing 2019

By: Robert_Ross

10,000 baby boomers retire every day.

But retirement won’t mean endless rounds of golf or trips to Tuscany for a lot of these folks, who are now 55–75 years old.

In fact, retirement will lower the living standards of 40% of boomers, according to The Wall Street Journal. That translates to a lifestyle downgrade for 15 million American households.

It gets worse: One in three boomers has zero money saved for retirement. Zilch. Nothing. And 6 in 10 have less than $10,000.

Then there’s the debt problem. The average boomer is $99,000 in debt, according to the Wharton School.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Will YouGov General Election Forecast 2019 be as Wrong as their REAL Forecast was for 2017? / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to win a majority of 68 in parliament at the Dec. 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.

Apparently Yougov accurately called the June 2017 General Election! We'll that's what the mainstream press has been liberally regurgitating in response to the release of their MRP forecast for 2019 that predicts the Tories are heading for a 68 seat majority on 359 seats up from 315, with Labour falling from the current 242 to 211.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Forecasting UK General Election 2019 Result With Lessons Learned from 2017 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Boris Johnson finally managed to persuade a frightened of the electorate Labour party to agree to hold a snap UK general election on the 12th of December 2019. An election that Johnson originally planned to hold Mid October ahead of the 31st October Brexit deadline, but extreme paralysis that has been the state of Westminster since June 2017 dragged out the painful process for another couple of months as Britain missed yet another Brexit deadline.

The latest poll of opinion polls puts the the Tories on 42%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 15% with the trend in the Tories favour which the pollsters continue to go onto extrapolate into the Tories winning the election typically on a majority of over 70 seats as illustrated by https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Checking in on Gold & Silver Sentiment / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector remains in a correction. The miners have shown some positive signs but are not ready to move yet because the metals likely have more correction ahead.

Technical support levels can provide us with low risk buy opportunities but combine that with sentiment data and we increase our odds of success.

One reason why the sector is stuck in a correction is because the net speculative position in Gold remains stubbornly high at 44% of open interest. Following interim peaks in the 2000s, the net speculative position usually fell to 30% and even 20% at times before Gold began its next impulsive advance.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Amazon Black Friday External USB Hard Drive REAL Bargains! 8TB WD My Book... / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: HGR

Amazon Black Friday Sale has already begun! And on searching for some REAL computer tech bargains, the category that most stands out for REAL price cuts to rock bottom prices are for the external USB hard drives that have been typically been cut to their lowest prices ever! As this video illustrates, 6TB, 8TB, WD drives are trading at new extreme low prices on Amazon, which given price history then these low prices are unlikely to hold beyond Black Friday.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

$EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave / Stock-Markets / Canada

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly the EWC instrument inception date was 3/12/1996. The iShares MSCI Canada ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large and mid-sized companies in Canada. This is of course reflected in the price. The best Elliott Wave reading of the long term cycles in $EWC iShares MSCI Canada ETF must presume some lower prices that did not exist prior to the ETF fund inception date.

Shown on the monthly chart, the bullish cycle from all time lows is believed to have ended in November 2007. This is mostly in line with many other broad based ETF’s and indices that ended larger cycles near that time. Likewise the steep pullback lower into the March 2009 lows replicated the pullbacks in other ETF & indices instruments. This pullback was strong enough to suggest it had corrected the cycle up from the all time lows. The analysis and commentary continues below the EWC Monthly chart.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Stock Market Range-Bound Into The End Of 2019? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Two of our favorite charts for following the US markets are suggesting the markets are range bound headed into the end of 2019.  The news may continue to push the price higher as the overall bias has continued to be to the upside.  Yet, our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting the current price trend has begun a “scouting party” type of move which may end in a moderate price correction fairly quickly.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

What Can You Do With a Finance Degree? / Personal_Finance / Education

By: Submissions

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Want to Identify Market Trends? Watch Elliott Wave Analysis at Work / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

How it anticipated a multi-year crash in one of the world's biggest commodity markets

The large fowl we call "Turkeys" were given that name by the British, who thought the bird came from the country of Turkey. Truth is, turkeys are native to North America. And yet, the question no one will ever hear around the dinner table on Thanksgiving is, "Who wants gravy on their North America?"

This story recalls another fallacy -- or fowl-acy! -- that likewise persists in the face of facts to the contrary; namely, the mainstream financial theory known as "fundamental market analysis." The notions behind this widely held belief go like this:

Financial market prices are driven by external events, or "fundamentals," which can include crop-destroying weather patterns, political unrest, earnings reports, crop data, supply and demand numbers and so on.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Energy Sector to Bounce Off Cycle Bottom into 2020 / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: readtheticker

Low prices fix low prices, and eventually the shorts will be forced to cover and buy back their shares and force prices higher. This sector is 'this close' to such and event. Both Hurst cycles and Wyckoff supply and demand action are warming up to the bullish side for the energy sector (XLE). This is on the back of growing inflation fears. Inflation sourced from wage growth in the US and world wide central bankers (Japan [BOJ], Europe [ECB] and the USA [FED]) printing money at the same time. You should note this has never happened before, all three at the same time, printing. Yes, the energy sector has suffered from the lower oil prices but soon the shorts will have to judge how much lower energy stocks can go, as you can see the SPDR Energy Etf (XLE) has been unable to get below $50. Demand is present.  What to do? Watch for significant Wyckoff demand foot prints to see price test upper resistance (sign of strength), and then take action from a strong change of character.    

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

This Artificial Economic Boom Is Coming to an End / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Nothing is forever, not even debt. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe or defaults. Lenders may or may not have remedies. But one way or another, the debt goes away.

One of Western civilization’s largest problems is we’ve convinced ourselves debt can be permanent. We don’t use that specific word, of course, but it’s what we do and is why government debt keeps rising.