Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019
ElectionOracle / General Election 2019 Dec 09, 2019 - 05:19 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
"Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" vs "Get Brexit Done"
Everything's always obvious in hindsight and so it was for the 2017 General Election campaign. We might all have seen it on the TV, but it just failed to register with most. What am I talking about? It is the phenomena that was Jeremy Corbyn or JC! In 2017 we saw it in his speeches, we saw it in his interviews and we definitely saw it at his mass rallies! Ooh Jeremy Corbyn, Ooh Jeremy Corbyn! Some 2.5 years on "Ooh Jeremy Corbyn" may have become a little bit stale but you can still hear it humming in background.
Even fellow Blairites who literally hated most things Jeremy Corbyn stood for i.e. his 1970's style socialist ideology could not fathom the amount of interest that he was generating as JC was EVANGELICAL! So is those close to him could not understand what was going on then what hope did those who never met him in person have.
Against a pumped up enthused Jeremy Corbyn we had an awkward, wooden and perhaps autistic Theresa May. Who clearly hated being in the public eye, hated doing speeches, hated talking to the crowd, just could not connect with ordinary people. Where her message of "Strong and Stable" actually presented itself as "Weak and Feeble". And I never once saw her go on the offensive against Labour policies, NOT ONCE!
Theresa May was definitely the wrong person in the wrong job at the wrong time.
And NONE of this was reflected in the opinion polls, or by the pundits! NONE OF IT!
And so one of the significant lessons learned from 2017 IS that Leaders DO MATTER!
This is my 5th analysis of a series of 6 for towards a general election forecast that at it's core is based on my UK house prices momentum analysis first made available to Patrons on the 24th of November.
Recap of my seats projections analysis to date:
- UK House Prices 322 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 (Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast)
- Economy 324 (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019)
- Marginal Seats xxx (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019)
- Social Mood (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019)
- Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion
The LEADERS
And so today we have Boris Johnson vs Jeremy Corbyn, where Johnson being some 15 years younger should have an advantage in terms of relative youthful energy.
JEREMY CORBYN
Where this elections campaign trail is concerned Jeremy Corbyn appears to finding things a lot tougher than in 2017, so I am perceiving his performance, interactions and responses at around 90% of 2017, as Boris Johnson has has successfully put Corbyn on the defensive several times that the media has run with and social media exaggerated. For instance the Labour anti-semitism debate that continues to rage on.
The other negative the Corbyn faces which he did not in 2017 is lack of clarity on the preeminent issue of our age, BREXIT! So what does Labour go and do? Park their bums right on the fence! In the hopes that there wishy washy position will appeal to both Leavers and Remainer's. This is a HUGE mistake! Because one thing I am certain of is that the people of Britain have had enough of Brexit!
They just want to move on, get it out of the way, instead have had to put up with 3 YEARS! Westminister bullshit! They really do want to just get BrExit Done!
At the most fundamental level voters understand that elections are won and lost and then the nation moves on. However because of the remain establishment have subverted Brexit so that it has FAILED to happen!
Labour sitting on the fence, and Lib Dems worse wanting to CANCEL Brexit is not going down well with the electorate. People really do want the Government to just get Brexit DONE!
So once again Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson's election guru has hit the nail right on the head with his "GET BREXIT DONE" election slogan, even if we all understand it's not really going to get done on the 31st of January 2019. But still it does MOVE britain FORWARDS, Offers a light at the end of the tunnel. Whilst Labours solution is even worse where Theresa May's that puts the nation in a perpetual state of paralysis. Corbyn's answer is not just one but TWO more chaos inducing referendums!
Corbyn's dumbfoundingly stupid plan is to hold a 2nd EU Referendum AFTER he has negotiated his OWN Brexit deal with the EU AND in exchange for SNP support offers the Scottish fanatics a Second Independence Referendum.
Corbyn's dumbfoundingly stupid plan is to hold a 2nd EU Referendum AFTER he has negotiated his OWN Brexit deal with the EU AND in exchange for SNP support offers the Scottish fanatics a Second Independence Referendum.
I can imagine the response, that just like me, when voters hear Labours confused chaos message that even die hard labour supporters will just be rolling their eyes at the prospects of perpetual Brexit chaos and uncertainty. How can Jeremy Corbyn keep a straight face when he comes out with his fence shitting garbage solution to Brexit?
And then we have the Labour LEAVE majority marginal's, which I covered in-depth in my last analysis in this series. Which ensures that Labour is going to LOSE at least 20 seats to the Tories.
On the plus site, JC, aims to turn water into wine, or rather paper into money with his £135 billion annual spending bribe that I am sure is going down well in many Labour constituencies who have had enough of austerity as a consequence of bailing out the banking crime syndicate.
Presentation wise, Corbyn given the contradictions around Brexit, appears less in control of events and thus has not been able to build up much momentum behind his campaigns core messages of the NHS, 4 day week, a 5% pay hike for public sector workers, which in large part has to do with the fact he is not up against a sock puppet like Theresa May.
So overall in social mood terms Labour under Corbyn is not coming across as driven as it was in 2017. A less effective force, less decisive, and less competent. For instance Labour may have gone a bribe too far in more doubling their spending promises from £50 billion for 2017 to £135 billion a year for this campaign. The people are not stupid, whilst they may have believed £50 billion was possible, £135 billion is clearly a fantasy that the country could never afford!
It is just not possible for Britain at 90% of GDP to start spending 5% of GDP per annum more!
BORIS JOHNSON
A loveable buffoon, is what many voters say when referring to him, as before the campaign he was prone to come out with one liners, many of which failed to hit the mark. Where Boris Johnson is concerned the general public had low expectations for is performance going into the campaign i.e. expecting Johnson to make many gaffs along the way, or perhaps his friend in the White House would drag him down with him.
But it looks like Boris has been well coached, well trained on how to respond to questions without a smart alec remark, so there has been far less buffoonery from Boris Johnson than I was expecting and from what I can see no significant gaffs!
So against all expectations Boris Johnson has proven to be a formidable opponent for JC. So whilst he can't pull the crowds to anywhere near the messianic level as Corbyn can, but he has proven to be competent where the underlying message has been -
GET BREXIT DONE
GET BREXIT DONE
The message that Boris Johnson's iterates every time he opens his mouth, regardless of what the original question or subject matter was it always seems to resolve to GET BREXIT DONE!
Which is straight out of the TAKE BACK CONTROL play book of the VOTE LEAVE campaign for the EU referendum.
If there is one slogan that will live on after this election then it is GET BREXIT DONE!
And it doesn't just appeal to LEAVE voters, but many of those who voted REMAIN in 2016 who like most people are fed up by the whole Brexit saga and thus just want to get Brexit done!
The second major difference is that unlike Theresa May, Johnson is a FIGHTER! Whilst Theresa May never once went on the offensive to attack Labour or Corbyn instead leaving it up to her minions. Boris Johnson continuously attacks and ridicules Labours policies and position on Brexit. Repeatedly banging the drum that Corbyn is failing to answer whether he would campaign for LEAVE or REMAIN in Labours Second Referendum.
So where the leaders are concerned, Boris Johnson is actually perceived to be marginally ahead of Corbyn who has been crippled by a stupid sitting on the fence Brexit policy. Much as the Lib Dems are experiencing with their even worse message of CANCELLING BREXIT! A lunatic policy, for that's how civil wars start!
The People voted but then the nation goes through 3 years of unnecessary pain because the REMAIN establishment want to subvert Brexit, and then what do the Lib Dems offer? To CANCEL BREXIT!
I can it would have made many voters, perhaps even those who votes REMAIN furious, because you cannot have elections and then ignore the outcome! That's not how democracy works! So much for being called LIBERAL DEMOCRATS!
In terms of the impact on the general election than I would put the relative standing of Johnson vs Corbyn at 52% to 48%. Which in comparison to 2017 would have had Corbyn at 75% and Theresa May at 25% in terms of impact on social mood.
So for 2019, I just cannot see how the Tories are not going to win more seats given the social mood amongst relative. That and there is an even clearer alternative between the two parties today than 2017.
How does this translate into seats?
The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work:Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019
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UK General Election Forecast Analysis
- UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast
- Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast
- What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019
- Marginal Seats, Analysis and Implied Forecast 2019
- Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019
- Opinion Polls and Betting Markets, UK General Election Forecast Conclusion
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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