Monday, December 09, 2019

British Pound Struggling At New Resistance / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadia_Simmons

For many weeks running, GBP/USD has been trading sideways in the pink consolidation. After moving higher recently, just what are the chances of the breakout sticking?

Monday, December 09, 2019

Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MarketsToday

• Technical analysis update for the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
• Long-term bullish continuation anticipated once current correction is completed.
• Looks like a deeper retracement may come in the near-term, before resumption of the rally.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Stock and Financial Markets Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – There are no clear signs that the bull market is over.

Intermediate trend –  Most likely near an intermediate top.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, December 09, 2019

Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This article continues from (30 Nov 2019 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election) concluding in Tory seats forecast as a consquecne of the Labour vs Tory manifestos.

However, Maniesto impacts analysis is part of a series of pieces of in-depth analysis that were first made available to Patrons who support my work.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.

First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:

1. UK House Prices 322 (UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast)
2. Manifestos Bribes xxx (Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast)
3. Economy xxx (What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019)
4. Marginal Seats

The top 30 or so marginal Labour and Conservative seats will determine the outcome of this General Election just as they had for the 2017 General Election that all of the pollsters and pundits got so badly wrong i.e. instead of Tories winning most of Labours most marginal seats it was Labour who won most of the Tories most marginal seats.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 2 of 2 of my UK housing market analysis as consistently the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections. Where part 1 covered how house prices forecast the previous general elections including lessons learned from 2017 (UK House Prices Predicting the Outcome of General Election 2019). And now this analysis converts current UK house prices monentum into a Tory election seats forecast for the 12th December 2019 general election.

However, note that this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Results Forecast. So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: N_Walayat

At the 2017 General Election Labour surprised all including themselves by winning Sheffield Hallam, and ejecting the former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg from Parliament.

Unfortunately for Labour Jared O' Mara turned out to be a total disaster, heralding 2 years of chaos and failure to represent the constituents of Sheffield Hallam that included being suspended from the party, all at a time when the local population was in open revolt to the insane policies emanating out of the city council.

And so now 2 1/2 years on the Lib Dems look set to retake the Sheffield Hallam seat form a chaotic Labour party. Especially given the close result in 2017. That saw Labour winning the seat by just over 1000 votes.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and even authored a book back in 2016 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp where he accurately predicted the implosion of the US credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.

He's made a lot of great calls right here on this podcast this year and it's great to have him back on with us. Greg, thanks for the time again and welcome. How are you?

Greg Weldon: I'm great, Mike. My pleasure, anytime. You do a great job, so I'm always happy to contribute.

Mike Gleason: Well, it's great to get people like you on as frequently as we have. We're very fortunate, so thank you. Well, Greg as we're talking here on Wednesday afternoon, the stock markets sold off yesterday and we got a rally in metals, this morning is as if by magic in the equity markets are levitating and metals are being sold.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Technical Analysis is the theory that price relates all news, fundamental and correlative future expectations into current and recent price activity.  It is the theory that price is the ultimate indicator and that charts paint a very clear picture for those individuals that are capable of understanding the message that is being presented. 

In this research article, we are going to highlight the technical analysis components that we believe are painting a very clear picture that an “early warning” signal is flashing very brightly in the US and Global markets right now.

Sunday, December 08, 2019

Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

We all know that the gold and silver Commitments of Traders are very extended and at levels of commercial net shorts and large spec net longs that tend to be in place at tops in the metals. Well, the metals topped in the summer, so what does that tell us?

For one thing it tells us that bull market rules are different from bear market rules as per this post from August as gold was topping.

Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders for This Week

Listen sports fans, I just call ’em as I see ’em. The Commitments of Traders for gold is as extended as it has been lately and open interest is significant. Speculators are all-in here and while we note that bull market rules are different than bear market rules, extended is extended. Gold is vulnerable to pullback by this measure, especially since the gold price is in the target zone we laid out months ago.

Saturday, December 07, 2019

Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits. / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is literally promising voters everything under the sun! Scrapping Universal Credit, Giving all public sector workers a 5% Labour pay hike bribe, Free personal care fore the elderly, scrapping of tuition fees, £30billion Increase in annual NHS spending!

All of which translates into an increase in government day to day spending of about £80 billion, or 10% per year!

AND additional 'investment' spending of £55 billion a year. For a total annual increase in spending of £135 billion, more than 2.5X the tax bribes of 2017! And that's EXCLUDING Labours plan for mass nationalisation. a bill for which runs into the hundreds of billions!

Saturday, December 07, 2019

Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: N_Walayat

The Lib Dems have declared war on Britain's letter boxes by stuffing them full with leaflets, many of which are a bit dodgy, fake even!

For instance pretending that Tory MP's are asking them to vote for the Lib Dems to prevent Labour from winning a close Lib Dem / Labour marginal seat as is the case in the Sheffield Hallam Constituency that is literally seeing a barrage of leaflets and letters posted every day.

However, it is highly probable that for this constituency the Lib Dems do look set to win the seat from Labour as a consequence of the disaster that was their MP for the past 2 1/2 years. But the Lib Dems are making a huge mistake if they think the voters are too stupid to see through their fake election leaflets because NOT TORY MP is going write letters instructing voters to VOTE for the Lib Dems!

Friday, December 06, 2019

You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

A few weeks ago we noted the bullish setup for 2020.

Macro developments, one way or another will tend to favor Gold. There isn’t a realistic scenario that isn’t Gold bullish.

Note the comments from various Fed-heads last week. They are laying the groundwork to target higher than 2% inflation and won’t consider raising rates anytime soon.

And if they have to resume cutting rates Gold will obviously move higher.  

On the technical side, GDX and GDXJ are in solid uptrends and trading within huge long-term bases.

Friday, December 06, 2019

The End of Apple Has Begun / Companies / Apple

By: Stephen_McBride

When Apple CEO Tim Cook took the stage this September, nobody expected the shocking news he was about to deliver...

He unveiled the new iPhone 11—the most advanced phone Apple has ever made.

But it was not the triple-lens camera and lustrous finishes that stole the show. It was the phone’s price tag.

For the first time ever, Apple cut its iPhone price.

As I’ll explain, Apple made this move out of desperation… and it may well spell the beginning of the end of Apple’s run as a dominant company.

Apple is not a gambling company, but have worked a lot with gambling companies, read more and find some of them on FS Monster's casino list. But first, let's look at what Apple really is - a phone company.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Why Every Investor Should Be Politically Flexible / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Jared_Dillian

Things used to be so simple.

You buy a stock, the government cuts taxes, the stock goes up.

Actually, things still are that simple.

And yet vastly more complex. We cut taxes in 2017, but future tax increases—large ones—are likely.

The Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates because it is told to by the president.

Friday, December 06, 2019

How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? / Commodities / Environmental Issues

By: OilPrice_Com

You may think (or hope) that in your daily life you don’t need to worry about unknowingly eating or otherwise ingesting crude oil or any of its many, many petrochemical byproducts. But you would be wrong. And not just a little wrong--very, very wrong. Petroleum-based substances are in all kinds of innocuous-seeming things that we willingly put into our bodies. Even though petrochemicals are not technically (or really any other adverb you want to insert here) edible, we eat quite a lot of them.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 / ElectionOracle / Climate Change

By: N_Walayat

Where in a climate emergency that demands both cutting back carbon production and increasing carbon capture. In which respect one of the best mechanisms to achieve this emergency objective are TREES!

However, devoid of commonsense, several years ago the Labour controlled Sheffield City council embarked on a plan to fells tens of thousands of Sheffield's largest trees, typically 200 times the volume of replacement saplings. Literally millions of tons of carbon have been unnecessarily released by the Labour Council felling Sheffield's biggest trees that soak up vehicle pollution and releasing oxygen into the streets, which is why they were planted in the first place typically over a 100 years ago to help clean up Sheffield's toxic air environment of that time which given the volume of traffic remains just as toxic now as it was then.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast / ElectionOracle / General Election 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If one looks back to 2017 then two things stick out where the Manifesto's of the two main parties were concerned.

1. Jeremy Corbyn promising to ramp up government spending by nearly £50 billion per year or about 2.8% of GDP to be funded by tax hikes of £50 billion on the top 5%! That included a "Robin Hood" tax on financial transactions. Where in reality Labour would have been lucky to get half the tax hike they were budgeting for and thus set to increase the deficit by £25 billion per year. Where Brexit is concerned, Labour had ruled out a No Deal Brexit.

2. Theresa May's "strong and stable" promised to get Brexit done but no new voter bribes, just to continue to move towards raising the personal tax allowance to £12,500. A manifesto full of weak pledges with the underlying aim of balancing the budget by 2020 that translated into more economic austerity, hoping that the voters were too stupid to notice that they are getting nothing in exchange for the Tories wanting an increased majority. Which included the disastrous social care policy for the elderly and what came to be known as the "Dementia Tax" that cost the Tories many seats.

Friday, December 06, 2019

Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

Gold prices pushed sharply higher on Tuesday but have stalled ever since. Has the recovery rally completed? I think it has.

Leave it to Trump to go and say something that causes the equity markets to print a two-day drop that wipes out more than a week of gains. But the tone in the markets might be changing.

The US president went from saying that the trade deal might get delayed until after the elections on Tuesday to saying that talks with China are going “very well” on Wednesday. His shift in tone carried through the markets with the S&P 500 recovering and posting on a bullish engulfing candle on a daily chart yesterday.