Tuesday, February 25, 2020

US Bond Market Yield Curve Patterns – What To Expect In 2020 / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Quite a bit of information can be gleaned from the US Treasury Yield Curve charts.  There are two very interesting components that we identified from the Yield Curve charts below.  First, the bottom in late 2018 was a very important price bottom in the US markets.  That low presented a very deep bottom in the Yield Curve 30Y-10Y chart.  We believe this bottom set up a very dynamic shift in the capital markets that present the current risk factor throughout must of the rest of the world.  Second, this same December 2018 price bottom set up a very unique consolidation pattern on the 10Y-3Y Yield Curve chart.  This pattern has been seen before, in late 1997-1998 and late 2005-2008.

The reality of these two patterns setting up in the Yield Curve charts suggests that the US and global markets are going to experience a surge in volatility and a very real potential that the US and global markets will contract over the next 6 to 24 months.  Within about 3 to 6+ months of these patterns setting up, one of two separate outcomes typically takes place.

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK / Politics / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

So the UK government relocated 38 people from onboard the coronavirus infested Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Japan to Britain, who despite being in quarantine for 2 weeks, and supposedly NOT infected however when landing in Britain many tested positive, and so instead treating the infected at a remote facility so as to limit the risk of exposure to the general population, the government disbursed them to the very heart of Britians largest cities such as Sheffield, where the Royal Hallamshire Hospital situated at the very heart of Sheffield is now host to 2 infected patients!

It's mindless actions such as this which ensures that Britain is going to have a Coronavirus epidemic because it is clear 2 weeks quarantine is NOT enough, that and our government is bloody incompetent!

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Has Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past 5+ days, a very clear change in market direction has taken place in the US and global markets.  Prior to this, the US markets were reacting to Q4 earnings data and minimizing the potential global pandemic of the Coronavirus.  The continued “rally to the peak” process was taking place and was very impressive from a purely euphoric trader standpoint.  Our researchers found it amazing that the markets continued to rally many weeks after the news of economic contraction and quarantines setup in China/Asia.

Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter before you continue reading this or you may miss our next special report!

Monday, February 24, 2020

Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

• Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020
• QE4EVER
• As Goes January So Goes the Year
• Short-term Trend Analysis
• Long-term Trend Analysis
• ELLIOTT WAVES 
• Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
• Dow Stock Market Forecast Conclusion
• TRADING THE DOW
• Will Trump Win US Presidential Election 2020?

TREND ANALYSIS 

Monday, February 24, 2020

Sustained Silver Rally Coming? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is still in consolidation mode since early September, but it appears ready to rally over a sustained period of time.

On the chart there appears to have formed some fractals. The current one has also broken out at the black line recently (just after point C).

As expected, price survived the test of the 50-day moving average, and is looking really bullish.

Monday, February 24, 2020

Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

$500 billion. This is the sum the Fed has already pumped into the repo market since the crisis there started. On September 17, 2019, the secured overnight funding rate – a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities, based on the repurchase transactions – more than doubled, as the chart below shows, while the intraday range jumped to about 700 basis points! As a reminder, we are talking about the repo market, where interest rates usually fluctuate in an intraday range of 10, or at most 20 basis points.

Monday, February 24, 2020

Are FANG Technology Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we continue to get more and more information related to the Coronavirus spreading across Asia and Europe, the one thing we really must consider is the longer-term possibility that major global economies may contract in some manner as the Chinese economy is currently doing.  The news suggests over 700+ million people in China are quarantined.  This is a staggering number of people – nearly double the total population of the entire United States.

If the numbers presented by the Chinese are accurate, the Coronavirus has a very high infection rate, yet a moderately small mortality rate (2~3%).  Still, if this virus continues to spread throughout the world and infects more and more people, there is a very real potential that 20 to 50 million people may be killed because of this event.  It may become one of the biggest Black Swan events in recent history.

We really won’t know the total scope of the damage to the Chinese and Asian economies for another 35+ days – possibly longer.  The information we have been able to pull from available news sources and from the Chinese press is that hundreds of millions are quarantined, the Chinese Central Bank is pouring capital into their markets in order to support their frail economy and, just recently, President Xi suggested stimulus will not be enough – austerity measure will have to be put into place to protect China from creating a massive debt-trap because of this virus.

Monday, February 24, 2020

Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Ladies and Gentleman, gold has overcome yet another barrier, jumping above $1,600 amid the fresh FOMC minutes and the renewed fears about the coronavirus economic consequences. What’s next for the yellow metal?

Fed More Optimistic about Global Economy
Gold bulls can be happy. As the chart below shows, the yellow metal has jumped above $1,600 amid the FOMC minutes and concerns about the coronavirus. Let’s now analyze these two important developments.

Sunday, February 23, 2020

CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest Coronavirus / COVID19 pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket higher, now totaling over 600 infected and 6 deaths. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases! This whilst reports of mass cremations taking place.

Meanwhile in Europe, Italy has an outbreak under way with over 100 testing positive and 2 deaths with several hundred thousands of people put under quarantine, a taste of what is to come to Europe as the virus is clearly not being contained. This whilst western health care institutions such as the NHS following the Chinese playbook of painting a picture of being fully prepared to cope with outbreaks. Despite the fact that the NHS can barely cope with regular flu let alone a virus that is 15X more deadly resulting in 100X as many seriously ill patients than influenza.

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Gold Price At $1500 Is Fair And Accurate / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Is $1500 a reasonable price for gold? Some of the more ardent gold “bulls” might say no. A price of $2000 per ounce should sound better to them. That particular number is likely more popular because gold’s price didn’t quite get there eight years ago, stopping just shy of $1900 per ounce.

Similar behavior occurred after 1980, when gold’s price assent was stopped at $850. At that time, $1000 became the price projection of choice.

In both cases, the expectations for gold were likely born out of desire, rather than fundamentals.

So, how can we know what is a fair and accurate price for gold today – right now?

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Ways to Find Startup Capital / Companies / Debt & Loans

By: Submissions

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My analysis of 30th December 2019 (Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020) concluded in an overall outlook for the stock market for 2020 to target a trend towards 30,750 to 31,000 for a gain of between 8% to 9% for the year. This acts as a road map against which to measure relative strength or weakness as the Dow charts it's trend through the year.

A linear trend to 31,000 by end of 2020 would price the Dow at 28,830 today, against the last close of 29,102 which shows +272 point deviation against the linear trend, despite early January's surge to +750 that many had taken to imply 30,000 was just around the corner, instead resolving in a -600 deviation.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: EWI

China's Shanghai Composite has been in a large-scale downtrend for about 13 years.

So, when the news of the coronavirus outbreak hit, it came as less of a shock to Elliott Wave International's global analysts.

You may ask, "What in the world does one have to do with the other?"

Our just-published February Global Market Perspective provides insight:

When a major infectious disease breaks out, we find that a stock market correction has usually preceded it. That observation is germane right now because China's Shanghai Composite has been tracing out a large-degree correction since its peak in 2007 and, not coincidentally, China has experienced numerous outbreaks of highly lethal infectious diseases over the 13-years-and-counting period.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a hard look at various charts and sees an impending breakdown of commodity and tech markets.

In this update we are going to review a small but important range of commodities and lead indicators that strongly suggest the seemingly endless bull market in U.S. equities is living on borrowed time and will end sooner rather than later. Given how long it has lasted and how extremely overvalued the market has become, the downturn will likely start with a crash phase.

Regardless of what the eventual impact of the coronavirus epidemic is, U.S. stock markets, in particular, seem to be in a state of denial about the actual real-world consequences of the Chinese shutdown and its impact on the global supply chain and corporate profitability everywhere, and some elements even seem to be gloating about China's misfortune and predicament, completely oblivious to the fact that this is going to have a negative impact on almost everyone.

The following points were made by a reader, and while I don't necessarily concur with all he has written, I am open to the possibility that all or much of this may be correct, and if it is, we are looking at serious problems emerging before much longer.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold rallied by $17.20 yesterday (1.08%), while silver soared by $0.42 (2.35%), which means that silver more than doubled gold’s rally. Silver is outperforming gold, which was both profitable, and informative. Gold miners moved higher even more (4.60% in case of the HUI Index), indicating that the final part of the rally is not yet over but rather that we are still in it. Alternatively, it could mean that yesterday’s session was the top, but given today’s pre-market moves higher in gold and silver, the former seems much more likely. In other words, gold and silver are likely to move higher shortly.

One question is how far are they likely to move, but the key question is how likely it is that they will indeed move higher.

At first sight, the situation is as bullish as it gets:

• the USD Index might be topping here while being very overbought from the short-term point of view
• gold, silver, and mining stocks showed exceptional strength by rallying despite USD’s rally
• gold and silver broke above their declining resistance lines
• miners showed strength and created a bullish price gap yesterday

Indeed, these are all factors that will likely make one consider jumping in the precious metals market with both feet without warm-up. Caution is warranted, though. There are also other factors and a what-if case that’s becoming increasingly important that need to be considered. While at it, take a look at the other gold trading tips to consider.

Let’s start with the last two points.

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

FANG stocks seem uniquely positioned for some extreme rotation over the next 6+ months.  The continued capital shift that has taken place over the past 5+ years has driven investment and capital into the Technology sector – much like the DOT COM rally.  The euphoric rally in the late 1990s seems quite similar to today.

The biggest difference this time is that global central banks have pushed an easy-money monetary policy since just after 2000.  The policies and rallies that took place after 9/11 were a result of policies put in place by George W. Bush and Alan Greenspan.  Our research team believes these policies set up a  process where foreign markets gorged on cheap US Dollars to expand industry and manufacturing throughout the late 1990s and most of the early 2000s.  This process sets up a scenario where the US pumped US Dollars into the global markets after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and foreign markets gobbled this capital up knowing they could expand infrastructure, industry, and manufacturing, then sell these products back to the US and other markets for profits.  Multiple QE attempts by the US Fed continued to fuel this capital shift.

Friday, February 21, 2020

Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We in the West are in still the CALM before the Coronavirus STORM stage, both in terms of infections and in terms of economic impact as we witness China's economy effectively grind to a halt, a harbinger of what to expect to come that the financial markets are STILL NOT discounting! For China's Coronavirus statistics grossly under report the number of infections by several multiples that this analysis will attempt to determine the true magnitude of China's outbreak which even the Chinese CDC now admits that their statistics are under reporting by significant degree the actual number of infected. Which has not just been my consistent view since the Coronavirus story first broke a month ago, but many scientists around the world have questioned China's data as measured across several metrics such as the unrealistic day to day change in infection numbers that for want of a better word were unnatural.

Basically China cannot test all suspected cases for the virus, instead only those who make into hospital tend to get tested, and thus excluding all those who either don't turn up to hospital i.e. told to self quarantine at home or are turned away from hospitals because there is no capacity to deal with more people clogging up the corridors, that and the tendency to brush bad news under the carpet then be reasonable for passing it up the command chain.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

It appeared that the bears firmly took the reins of yesterday’s session, but most of their gains were history before the closing bell. Have we seen an important turning point for oil?

Let’s start with the daily chart examination (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com and http://stooq.com ).

Crude oil opened yesterday’s session with the green bullish gap that’s slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Although the bulls took the commodity a bit higher after the market open, this strong resistance encouraged the sellers to act.

Thursday, February 20, 2020

What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Stocks are entering the holiday-shortened week on a strong note. There was no selloff on Friday, as has been the case three preceding weeks in a row. This weekend, there were no spooky coronavirus headlines. Stocks finished on Friday close to their yearly highs, and the beat goes on. In light of today’s premarket decline, the following question is in order. Does the beat really go on?

We’ll start the thorough examination with the weekly chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Stocks built on last weeks’ gains, and keep trading farther and farther away from the upper border of the rising purple trend channel. While weekly volume doesn’t flash any warning signs of an impending reversal, what about the other indicators?

Thursday, February 20, 2020

Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Coronavirus, the topic du jour. It is still the major threat for the global health and economy. But we should not forget about other geopolitical and economic developments. What do they imply for the gold market?

Coronavirus, China’s Economy and Gold Prices

The number of cases of coronavirus reported by the WHO have increased from 45,171 cases and 1,115 deaths by February 12 to 51,867 cases and 1,669 deaths by February 16, 2020. However, the number of new cases is slowing down, which suggests that the epidemic could reach a turning point within weeks. This is of key importance not only for the global health but also for the global economy, as the sooner the epidemic is over, the quicker China’s economy will recover. As a reminder, the quarantines of the whole cities like Wuhan and other compulsory measures disrupted the supply chains and hampered the Chinese economy.