Monday, March 16, 2020
Stock Market Trend Forecast Number Crunching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This is one of those articles that are packed with resources showing your what to expect for various assets both long-term and short-term and will guide you through these volatile times and this year.
Our friends and followers continue to contact us asking what to expect and what should they be doing with their assets and trades? Our research and analysis have been very clear up to this point; we warned of a Zombie Rally in early November and early December 2019, we warned that Oil would fall below $40 on November 15, 2019, and we warned of a global Black Swan event on January 26, 2020.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Containing the Coronavirus: Chinese lessons / Politics / Pandemic
By: Dan_Steinbock
Despite containment in China, international response against the coronavirus has been lagging. So, what can be learned from the Chinese experience?As the novel coronavirus is globalizing, the very nature of the outbreak – which the World Health Organization (WHO) has now declared a global pandemic – is changing.
As the early imported cases are now being augmented with local transmissions, the novel coronavirus outbreak has moved into a new, more serious phase. That’s why March will be the critical month worldwide.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Economic Stimulus Can’t Save US from Deflation and Recession / Economics / Recession 2020
By: Richard_Mills
One of the worst weeks on Wall Street mercifully ended on Friday.
S&P 500
DJIA
Nasdaq
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Gold Miners: Dismissing the inflation Bugs / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020
By: Gary_Tanashian
Below is a monthly chart of HUI telling some stories of the past.
- The 2003 to 2008 bull rally ended with Huey’s “crown of thorns” as I used to call it back then. An H&S that formed at the end of a great inflationary phase in the markets.
- The great crash of 2008 (Armageddon ’08) was completely deserved because as I’ve belabored for so many years now, you don’t buy gold stocks in any heavy and/or long-term way during cyclical inflationary touts as gold barely keeps up with mining cost commodities and other assets/markets. The crash of Q4 ’08 cleaned out the inflation bugs and it did so with great cruelty and relentlessness. Only when every last bug who’d come aboard for the wrong reasons was exterminated did the bloodshed finally end.
- So who turned and burned first out of the ’08 (deflationary) bottom? Gold and then the miners, that’s who. They led the whole raft of commodities and stocks, which finally bottomed in March of 2009. Then another massive inflation trade ensued, before blowing out in Q1 of 2011. Then? What I called “Mr. Fat Head” formed as the first drop found support at 375, the sector rammed upward on a QE tout, then failed, taking out 460 on the downside and we proclaimed that was that. Welcome to the bear market.
- Then years of a bear crash and grind took HUI down to Mr. Fat Head’s measured target, which was around 100.
Monday, March 16, 2020
This Will Signal the Stocks Bear Market's Halfway Point / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
On March 12, the date the DJIA closed lower more than 2350 points, the U.S. chief equity strategist for a major financial firm appeared on Bloomberg after the market close and opined that "90% of the damage has been done."
He went on to affirm that if an investor's time horizon is longer than two weeks, then yes, the stock market plunge represents a good buying opportunity.
Well, if that's the sentiment after the DJIA had shed more than 28% (through March 12), then the downturn may have ways more to go than just another 10%. In other words, such financial confidence is usually not the prevailing sentiment near the end of a bear market.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Covid19, Bear Markets and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Ron Struthers of Struthers' Resource Stock Report discusses the current market meltdown and the longer-term outlook for the markets and gold.
Although I know of some great companies and stocks out there, it is best just to wait. Markets are going a lot lower and investors in the main indexes and techs won't have a recovery in their portfolios for many, many years. Gold is being sold down too at times but the uptrend is still in place. We can expect a recovery in gold, gold stocks and junior miners this year and then off to new highs in a raging bull market. We will soon have zero interest rates and massive QE. The Fed announced they are pumping up to $175 billion per day in the repo market up from $150 billion. The Fed balance sheet is heading up again and will go at a faster pace now. The red arrow is where it's headed, off the chart.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
New Coronavirus Warnings of Stock Market Shutdown, Martial Law / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
As cancellations, emergency restrictions, and panic selling of assets spreads, the global economy is at risk of grinding to a halt. We are already in the throes of the worst market mayhem since 2008.
If the news on the coronavirus front gets any worse from here, we will be facing a once in a century financial crisis – and a possible Great Depression ahead.
That said, there are at least some reasons to be hopeful. The number of coronavirus cases in China and Korea appears to have plateaued. Warmer weather in the weeks ahead and more aggressive containment strategies may begin to inhibit the spread of the deadly infection in the U.S. and Europe.
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Monday, March 16, 2020
Coronavirus HERD IMMUNITY, UK Schools NOT CLOSED as Government Follows Mad Scientist Advice / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The UK Governments Chief Scientific Advisor let slip the Boris Johnson Governments cunning plan to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. Apparently the plan is not to follow what every other nation is doing in attempting to contain outbreaks but instead the scientists have convinced Boris Johnson to adopt the "HERD IMMUNITY" Protocol. Which is that once at least 60% of the population has become INFECTED with the virus then they would develop an immunity and thus no longer spread the virus onto the remaining 40% or so of the population.
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Sunday, March 15, 2020
Dow Stock Market Crash Watch Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: readtheticker
As expected reality was to knock on the door of everything priced to perfection, but is the panic selling done yet?
Sunday, March 15, 2020
Stocks Keep Plunging Like There’s No Tomorrow / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
If you think that yesterday’s session in stocks was a bloodbath, don’t look at today’s overnight trading. It would be an understatement to say that the markets didn’t buy into stimulus package contours or the 30-day Europe flights ban. What about today’s ECB monetary policy statement, can that really lift the bulls? Enjoy the wild ride and despair not, as we’re profiting on it.
Let’s jump right into the weekly chart to see the shape of the week-in-progress (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Sunday, March 15, 2020
Crashing Markets and the Threat of Deflation Will Lead to the Next Great Inflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
As the coronavirus spreads fear, sickness, and death, a specter haunts investors – the specter of deflation.
Despite central bankers’ attempts to push inflation rates higher, equity and commodity markets are collapsing. Inflation expectations as reflected in tanking U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, appear headed toward zero – and perhaps even below.
“I think that we have a real danger of deflation in the economy right now,” former Trump economic advisor Stephen Moore told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo last weekend.
Clearly, symptoms of deflation and leading indicators of economic contraction are now manifesting in dramatic ways:
Sunday, March 15, 2020
Small Cap Stocks Hold The Key To The Rest Of 2020 And Beyond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
Right before I had to undergo a surgery at the end of the first week of February, I began to pen an article regarding the potential bearish set up in IWM as a follow up to the bearish analysis I posted about EEM earlier that week entitled “Sentiment Speaks: Emerging Markets Look Sick.”
In fact, I have used the same title in this article which was intended for the bearish article I began writing in early February about IWM. Unfortunately, I got too busy to complete that article, but needless to say, the structure in IWM remained quite troubling as long as it maintained below 174.
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Sunday, March 15, 2020
Is This A Bear Market When Stocks Crash 20% and Bonds Spike 30% / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It is another blood bath in the markets with everything down, including TLT (bonds) and gold. Safe havens falling with stocks is not a good sign as people are not comfortable owning anything, even the safe havens, and this to me is a very bearish sign.
Now, with that said, this is one day one of this type of price action and one day does not constitute a new trend or change the game, but if we start seeing more of this happen, we could be on the verge of the bear market we have all been expecting to show it ugly face.
The SP500 (SPY) is down 19.5% from the all-time high we saw just three weeks ago, and the general bias for most people is once the market is down 20% that is a new bear market. I can’t entirely agree with that general rule. Still, a lot of damage is happening to the charts. If price lingers down here or trades sideways for a few months I will see it as a new bear market consolidation before it heads lower, and we start what could be very deep market selloff and test 2100 on the SP500 index (SPY $210) for the next leg down looking forward several months.
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Saturday, March 14, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Trend Forecast Update - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So President Trump has finally stopped referring to the Coronavirus as being fake new. This week saw the US go into full blown Coronavirus panic mode, not just in response to the series of daily stock market crashes as the markets scrambled to discount a trend that I have been warning the probability of since early February. But that the US tally of infections and deaths has now started to go parabolic, which is not because of newly infected but rather that the US programme for Coronavirus has been abysmally poor that has sown the seeds for the catastrophe that is about it take place which will manifest in a Case Fatality rate far in excess of the South Korea's 0.7% , to probably nearer to 3%.
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Saturday, March 14, 2020
UK Government Implements Coronavirus Herd Immunity Protocol, Plans for 1.4 Million Covid-19 Deaths / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK Governments Chief Scientific Advisor let slip the Boris Johnson Governments cunning plan to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. Apparently the plan is not to follow what every other nation is doing in attempting to contain outbreaks but instead the scientists have convinced Boris Johnson to adopt the "HERD IMMUNITY" Protocol. Which is that once at least 60% of the population has become INFECTED with the virus then they would develop an immunity and thus no longer spread the virus onto the remaining 40% or so of the population.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
UK Government Adopts "Herd Immunity" Protocol, Targeting 60% Infected and Upto 2 million Deaths / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The UK Governments Chief Scientific Advisor let slip the Boris Johnson Governments cunning plan to combat the Coronavirus pandemic. Apparently the plan is not to follow what every other nation is doing in attempting to contain outbreaks but instead the scientists have convinced Boris Johnson to adopt the "HERD IMMUNITY" Protocol. Which is that once at least 60% of the population has become INFECTED with the virus then they would develop an immunity and thus no longer spread the virus onto the remaining 40% or so of the population.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.
The UK government is finally starting to take the Coronavirus seriously adopting a series of panic response such as a £30 billion Coronavirus combating spending spree, trying to inflate an economy that is teetering on the brink of Coronavirus recession as global trade and consumer activity slows sharply.
The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to go parabolic, exceeding my trend trajectory by 173% due to increasing community spread.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Trend Forecast - 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.
My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Though I have often warned that the actual number will turn out to be significantly higher because of lack of US action to take the Coronavirus seriously enough, where many are still shrugging it off as being not that much worse than the flu such as President Trump. Instead at best it is at least 15 times as deadly as the flu, and depending on quality of healthcare response could be 100 times as deadly.
The latest infections data has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by 351 to 1,680 to well above my trend forecast.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
What's Next for Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
When it comes to our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system, we get asked questions from our friends and followers about how it could predict a virus event or how it could predict a price event so far out into the future. The truth of the matter is the ADL predictive modeling system doesn’t predict unknown virus, banking or other types of events.
What it does do, quite well we might add, is identify historically accurate price events (almost like unique DNA markers) and attempts to identify future price events that align with recent price bar (DNA) setups. In other words, it maps the markets highest probability outcomes by studying past price activity and using a unique DNA-like mapping system. Once this analysis is complete for any chart, we can ask it what is likely to happen in the future.
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Friday, March 13, 2020
Coronavirus Infections Outside China Going Parabolic - Trend Forecast 13th March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
"The Coronavirus is a like a bomb that just keeps exploding" says an Italian Doctor who warns if you don't get a grip early you soon lose control.
The latest official infections data, which despite a proper record of Africa and the South Central America's numbers has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by 8,400 to 54,00 to well abo ve my trend forecast that projects to an official tally of 129,250 infections outside China by 31st March 2020.
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