Friday, March 27, 2020

The Government's Pandemic Strategy Is a Reckless One / Politics / Pandemic

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

The current coronavirus strategy of most governments is a recipe for a worldwide economic disaster. In many countries, the strategy of confinement and forcing shops to close is a surefire path to large-scale business failures. The cascade of economic and financial repercussions to come is likely to lead to another Great Depression. Italy, for example, already had a 135 percent debt-to-GDP ratio before the crisis. It is hard to imagine how it will be able to borrow more without mutualizing its debt with the rest of the EU—something the northern European countries are still strongly opposed to. The European Central Bank is already printing money like crazy, and if Italy becomes another Greece, the ECB will make it ramp up the printing presses even more.

Friday, March 27, 2020

Planned-Demic 2020: War on Cash Goes Into Overdrive, New US Digital Currency in Coronavirus Bill / Politics / Pandemic

By: Jeff_Berwick

Another day, another coronavirus story.

The latest and biggest country after China to do a complete shutdown now is India.

Friday, March 27, 2020

CoronaVirus Herd Immunity, Flattening the Curve and Case Fatality Rate Analysis / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The most probable reason why Britain and the US did nothing during February was due to both nations apparently following the "Herd Immunity" Protocol, which requires approx 60% of the population to become infected so that the virus is no longer able to spread to the remaining population as confirmed by the Chief Scientific Advisor to Boris Johnson's Government who publically stated this objective but refused to discuss the implied death toll.

Friday, March 27, 2020

NHS Hospitals Before Coronavirus Tsunami Hits (Sheffield), STAY INDOORS FINAL WARNING! / Politics / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

The Coronavirus Tsunami that is already starting to hit London will reach the city of Sheffield in about 5 days time, ahead of most other UK cities because Sheffield is already a Coronavirus hot spot!

The latest statistics show Sheffield has 240 Coronavirus cases, and if your not already aware that the NHS for some weeks has only been testing patients who turn up ill to hospital. Which translates into a likely pool of over 7000 infected people in Sheffield already. So how much capacity does Sheffield NHS hospitals have to deal with critically ill Coronavirus patients, requiring ventilators to keep them alive?

Friday, March 27, 2020

CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this last segment of our multi-part research article, we want to highlight our expectations of the Covid-19 virus event and how the next 6+ months of global market activity may play out.  We’ve covered some of the data points we believe are important and we’ve touched on the collateral damage that may be unknown at this time.  Today, we’ll try to put the bigger picture together for investors to help you understand what we believe may be the 12+ month outcome.

As the global central banks and US Fed attempt to come to the rescue, the reality is that monetary policy works better when consumers are able to actually go out and engage in spending and economic activity.  If the Covid-19 virus event contracts global consumer activity, as it has recently, for an extended period of time (4 to 6+ months), then we have a real issue with how QE efforts and consumer activity translate into any real recovery attempt.

Friday, March 27, 2020

Finding an Expert Car Accident Lawyer / Personal_Finance / Motoring

By: Submissions

Getting hurt in a car accident is the most unfortunate incident in anyone's life. You can be self-driving or in an Uber. No matter how many precautions you take, there is always someone on the road who drives carelessly. The accident becomes even more painful if you lose a loved one. The traumatic experience is hard to get over.

In case of all kinds of accidents, you should report to the police and claim from the insurance companies. 

Thursday, March 26, 2020

We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession / Economics / Economic Depression

By: John_Mauldin

We are already seeing large increases in request for unemployment insurance. It is going to explode. Let’s look at this data from Homebase.

A stunning 39% drop in the number of hourly employees going to work in the U.S. just in the 10 days ended Friday, March 20.

Is there anybody who thinks that’s not going to increase?

Thursday, March 26, 2020

US Housing Real Estate Market Concern / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this second part of our research into the potential collateral damage, the Covid-19 global virus event may cause in the housing and commercial real estate markets, we want to start by sharing some information that severe cracks are already starting to appear in the entire system.  If you have not read PART I – Click Here

Hedge funds and banking institutions may already be feeling the pressure to attempt to contain the losses that are piling up (source: https://www-bloomberg-com). 

An extended decline in the global markets will continue to place pressure on institutional financial markets, banks, hedge funds, and other traditional lending and investment firms.  Investors will start to pull investment capital away from risk (out of the markets and funds) and may expose some of these larger institutions’ excessive leverage and risk exposure in the process.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Covid-19 Pandemic Affecting Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Italy Coronavirus Case Fataility Rate and Infections Trend Analysis / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Italy is in full blown Coronavirus crisis mode that just posted a record 793 deaths! Higher than the worst that China reported (fake numbers). However, where Italy is concerned it's not all bad news, as momentum in the rate of new infections has been slowing for some time, which suggests that by early April Italy's rate of infections should have started to flatten out at about 130,000 infected. So whilst there is a lot more pain to come i.e. Italy's infections numbers are likely set to double once more, nevertheless there is light at the end of Italy's dark tunnel.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Why Is Online Gambling Becoming More Popular? / Commodities / Gambling

By: Submissions

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock Markets CRASH! / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis seeks to conclude in detailed trend forecasts for US and UK Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

CoronaVirus Herd Immunity and Flattening the Curve / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The most probable reason why Britain and the US did nothing during February was due to both nations apparently following the "Herd Immunity" Protocol, which requires approx 60% of the population to become infected so that the virus is no longer able to spread to the remaining population as confirmed by the Chief Scientific Advisor to Boris Johnson's Government who publically stated this objective but refused to discuss the implied death toll.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Submissions

With hoops “out” and exponentials “in” (referring to March Madness, the 2020 pandemic definition), there’s a new, customary disclaimer on economics and financial sites. Mine says that I, too, knew nothing about infectious disease modeling only two months ago. But I’m catching up, just like everyone else. By now, I might have reached a “Dummies Guide” standard, and I’ll keep this article at about that level.

So with that preface out of the way, I’ll first offer a health warning of sorts about a type of COVID-19 chart that’s popular with market bulls. Here’s a version that appeared in the New York Times:

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Is the Stock Market discounting the Coronavirus yet?

Well what will be effect on the stock market when we see start to see the numbers of infected virtually doubling every couple of days over the coming week, especially as unlike China the US is not going to hide the numbers of infected.

The markets look at the numbers, they want to see the number of infected stabilising and then DECREASING on a daily basis, and NOT DOUBLING every couple of days!

Therefore this implies we are going to continue to experience a bearish trend trajectory for at least March and likely April, despite Fed panic actions, as it now looks like my estimate of 13,000 US infected by the end of March gave way too much credence to US healthcare and CDC competency, instead both have proven to be seriously lacking i.e. closer in performance to that of Iran than South Korea!

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

US National Debt is About to Surge Like Never Before! / Politics / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

The U.S. National Debt is about to surge like never before, along with the rest of the entire planet’s gigantic pile of sovereign IOUs. America started with a $23.5 trillion debt before the Wuhan virus outbreak, with annual deficits running over a $1 trillion; and projected to be at least that amount for the next dozen years. But then, the stock market and economy crashed due to the catalyst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which pricked the massive bubble in junk bonds and equities that I have been warning about for years.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Pandemonium in Precious Metals Market as Fear Gives Way to Command Economy / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Last week was another week of wild market volatility for all asset classes, and precious metals were no exception. 

Gold continues to be the least volatile metal.  And it continues to hold up better than the chaotic stock market during most trading days. But it has experienced some downside in recent days. 

Money Metals Exchange and other bullion dealers have experienced an unprecedented surge in demand for silver and gold coins, bars, and rounds.  Many dealers have essentially sold out and/or refused to accept smaller orders because of fulfillment challenges.

The month of March could set an all-time record for sales of Silver Eagles.  That will depend on whether the U.S. Mint is willing and able to supply coins to dealers in volumes that the market demands.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Pandemics and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In the first part, we analyzed the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as the most deadly pandemic since the 1971, and the SARS pandemic, as the most similar to the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, we have witnessed several other pandemics in the recent decades. Let’s investigate them now and draw conclusions for the global economy and the gold market.

Let’s start with the epidemic of 2009 A/H1N1 flu, called also the swine flu. It originated in pigs from central Mexico and lasted from early 2009 to late 2010. It was highly contagious, as around 1.66 billion of people, or 24 percent of the then global population, contracted the illness. Luckily, the case-fatality rate was very small, around 0.001-0.0035 percent, which resulted in an estimated range of deaths from between 151,700 and 575,400 people, around 10 times higher than the first estimates based on the number of cases confirmed by lab tests. The peak of interest in the swine flu occurred in April 2009, while the number of cases peaked in June 2009. As one can see in the chart below, the price of gold did not rally to the hysteria about the swine flu. It is true that gold started in mid-2009 its great bull market, but the rally came after the peak in the swine flu outbreak, so it seems that it was rather a reaction to the Great Recession and the Fed’s quantitative easing.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

UK Coronavirus Hotspots - Cities with Highest Risks of Getting Infected / Politics / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

The UK government finally woke up last week to smell the coffee, that their insane policy of aiming for herd immunity was about to result in a catastrophic death toll and so made a series of PANIC announcements to shutdown the whole of the UK in attempts at curbing the exponential curve that the UK had entered. However the rates of infection are not uniform across Britain, so this analysis of several major UK cities reveal there are hotspots and safe zones. Though, bare in mind that the risk of getting infected is always increasing. Nevertheless here is an analysis of the risks of getting infected where the peoples of Sheffield and London should pay special attention to!

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

WARNING US Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Going Ballistic! / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The penny finally appears to have dropped in the US! Where even uber skeptic President Trump has finally had someone read the writing on the wall to him, with the US appearing to start to swing firmly in the right direction, though as the following graph illustrates the damage is likely already done, so the US WILL pay a heavy price for Presidential & Congressional Governmental and CDC NEGLIGENCE that borders on CRIMINAL. Where the US wasted THE WHOLE OF FEBRUARY! The US could have nipped this in the bud as I repeatedly suggested was possible during February, but instead supreme arrogance in monitoring and capability reigned supreme until the stock market started discounting the trend trajectories that were starting to unfold. Remember that the stock market DISCOUNTS the future, it's not going to wait for 100,000 deaths before it nose dives as we have witness take place these past 2 weeks.