Monday, February 17, 2020

Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: James_Quinn

“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.”  – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

As we wander through the fog of history in the making, unsure who is lying and who is telling the truth, seemingly blind to what comes next, I look to previous Fourth Turnings for a map of what might materialize during the 2nd half of this current Fourth Turning. After a tumultuous, harrowing inception to this Crisis in 2008/2009, we have been told all is well and are in the midst of an eleven-year economic expansion, with the stock market hitting all-time highs.

Sunday, February 16, 2020

British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my British Pound Analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020

• British Pound 2019 Review (Part1)
• Political Implications
• Fundamentals
• US Dollar Index
• GBP Long-term analysis
• GBP Trend Analysis
• Elliott Wave Theory
• GBP 2020 Forecast Conclusion

However the whole of analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work: British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Sunday, February 16, 2020

SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 / Companies / Samsung

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The juggernaut that is Artificial Intelligence continues to rumble along towards an inexorable future, one that most still fail to grasp the magnitude of the changes that are just around the corner as humans think in linear terms whilst the AI trend is EXPONENTIAL. Where developments that even the proponents of AI thought would take several years are taking place in mere MONTHS! That is the power of the unfolding AI MEGA-TREND!

AI has already CHANGED THE WORLD! EXPONENTIALLY! You have an AI super computer right in your pocket for likely less than £1000!

Especially, when one marries AI with other big world changing tech mega-trend "Quantum Computing"! Put the 2 together and we are literally going to see an explosion in SUPER INTELLGENCE that would soon far exceed that of human intelligence, following which it won't be that many years before the AI exceeds the intelligence of the sum of ALL humans! For better or worse, that's the path we are on.

And all those who say AI can be controlled are going to be proven wrong, as new technologies tend to be first sequestered towards military aims. So whilst we focus on the benefits of AI in reality AI is a POWERFUL WEAPON and so the world is in an AI arms race, commercial, economic and military AI arms race.

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Graham_Summers

Ignore the naysayers, the Trump administration has successful engineered an economic boom.

I was recently on Cheddar discussing the markets when the anchor raised the fact that the Trump administration failed to achieve its economic goals.

This is false.

First and foremost, the economic data put out in the U.S. has become EXTREMELY politically biased.

The reason for this is simple, many of the people who compile this information are Democrats who hate the President (the bulk of Government employees live and work in Northern Virginia/ D.C. which went 92% for Hillary Clinton in 2016).

Sunday, February 16, 2020

UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable / Local / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

Sheffield Britains fifth largest city like the rest of Britain's big cities is in the calm before the Coronavirus storm stage. Where barely a couple of weeks from now everything isa likely to change when Corona viral outbreaks start taking place across the UK. Because unfortunately the NHS is barely able to cope with the regular winter flu let alone a strain that is 100 times as deadly so the NHS will soon be overwhelmed with seriously ill patients requiring intensive care, and it won't take more than a dozen such patients to tip the healthcare systems in each of Britain's big cities such as Sheffield, unable to cope with even small volumes of Coronavirus ill where the only response to 111 calls will be for patients to self quarantine themselves at home as hospitals become hotbeds for the transmission of the virus, so places definitely to steer clear of to avoid becoming infected.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 / / BioTech

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The juggernaut that is Artificial Intelligence continues to rumble along towards an inexorable future, one that most still fail to grasp the magnitude of the changes that are just around the corner as humans think in linear terms whilst the AI trend is EXPONENTIAL. Where developments that even the proponents of AI thought would take several years are taking place in mere MONTHS! That is the power of the unfolding AI MEGA-TREND!

AI has already CHANGED THE WORLD! EXPONENTIALLY! You have an AI super computer right in your pocket for likely less than £1000!

Especially, when one marries AI with other big world changing tech mega-trend "Quantum Computing"! Put the 2 together and we are literally going to see an explosion in SUPER INTELLGENCE that would soon far exceed that of human intelligence, following which it won't be that many years before the AI exceeds the intelligence of the sum of ALL humans! For better or worse, that's the path we are on.

And all those who say AI can be controlled are going to be proven wrong, as new technologies tend to be first sequestered towards military aims. So whilst we focus on the benefits of AI in reality AI is a POWERFUL WEAPON and so the world is in an AI arms race, commercial, economic and military AI arms race.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Gold Stocks Still Stalled / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are still stalled, mostly grinding sideways despite higher prevailing gold prices.  This lack of progress is really frustrating traders, slowly shifting herd psychology towards apathy.  That’s the mission of high consolidations, gradually rebalancing sentiment by bleeding off greed.  This healthy process has already come a long way, but still needs to fully play out before gold stocks’ next upleg can run.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s most-popular benchmark.  Launched way back in May 2006, its first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead over its peers.  Its $12.7b in net assets this week are running 38.2x larger than its next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor!  GDX’s lackluster price action in this past half-year or so has disheartened traders.

Last summer the gold stocks blasted higher with gold after its first bull-market breakout in several years.  The gold stocks caught a bid before that landmark event, starting to rally at the end of May as gold surged on US-tariff fears.  By early September GDX had soared 49.0% higher in just 3.2 months!  Over 2/3rds of those big gains came after gold’s bull-market breakout.  GDX crested with gold on September 4th at $30.95.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices.  It is almost like there is no other place on the planet that will allow investors to pool capital into such a variety of strong assets while protecting against foreign capital risks.  Yet the one big question remains – when will a price reversion event hit the US stock market?

So many researchers, even our team of researchers, believe we have found the keys to unlocking when the price reversion event will take place.  Time-honored technical analysis techniques have set up very clear triggers that were negated by higher prices and continued upside trending.  What is certain at this point is that the Capital Shift is going to continue until it stops – at some point in the future.

Saturday, February 15, 2020

UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This week the people of Britain got a taste for how the Coronavirus epidemic is going to break out in the UK. As apparently a Chinese woman infected with the Coronavirus virus flew from China to the UK before she was put into quarantine in China, boarded a flight to the UK, with no regard to the risks of infecting fellow passengers on the plane. No regard to the staff and the thousands of passengers at Heathrow airport.

Where instead of declaring that she was infected with the killer virus on arrival, went through customs and border control, exited the airport and then proceeded to take a Uber taxi without regard to the driver and his family or the other passengers who would ride in the Uber after her, to the nearby Lewisham hospital . Walking into the A&E department without regard to the staff and patients sat there, effectively declaring that I am ill with Coronavirus so give me treatment!

Friday, February 14, 2020

The Growing Weaponization of Space / Politics / US Military

By: Richard_Mills

In his recent State of the Union address, President Trump gave a shout-out to space exploration, highlighting the newly-created Space Force branch of the US Military, and NASA’s Artemis program of crewed lunar exploration. Artemis aims to put astronauts on the moon by 2024 (the first time since the 1972 Apollo mission), and use the lunar surface to train for missions to Mars in the 2030s. 

“In reaffirming our heritage as a free nation, we must remember that America has always been a frontier nation. Now we must embrace the next frontier: America’s manifest destiny in the stars,” Trump said during the nearly 80-minute speech. “I am asking Congress to fully fund the Artemis program to ensure that the next man and first woman on the moon will be American astronauts, using this as a launching pad to ensure that America is the first nation to plant its flag on Mars.”

While Trump has made peaceful space exploration a priority of his administration, what he probably hadn’t reckoned on was seeding the next generation of US weaponry that will help to fuel an arms race among the most advanced space programs. Indeed beyond the atmosphere of planet earth, and the range of the naked eye, an impressive arsenal of weapons have been, and are continuing to be developed, for a new theater of war. 

Friday, February 14, 2020

Will the 2020s Be Good or Bad for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

2010s have certainly been a roller coaster ride for gold. Will the 2020s then be better than the prior years for the yellow metal? Today’s article provides the macroeconomic outlook for the full decade – learn whether the fundamental factors will become in the 2020s less or more friendly toward gold.

People often ask about my economic forecasts for the current year, whether the recession will come or not, etc. I reply that I’m an economist, not a fortune teller. As future is inherently unpredictable, I don’t like the traditional January game of economic forecasting for the year ahead and I avoid providing detailed price predictions. So, my Readers can be surprised by the title of this article – if I don’t like forecasting one year ahead, why the heck I would be forecasting the whole decade?

Friday, February 14, 2020

Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Price Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system is suggesting Gold will rally above $1650 within the next 2 to 4 weeks, then settle into a narrow price range above $1600.  If you’ve followed our analysis of Gold over the past few months and years, you already know we expect Gold to rally above $1750 this year and to continue to move higher attempting to breach the $2100 level.  It is just a matter of time as far as we are concerned where Metals begin a massive upside rally as the global debt markets become an issue throughout the world.

Right now, there is a very clear opportunity for Gold to rally nearly $100 over the next few weeks.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting this really should begin very soon and will likely propel the price of Gold to levels above $1640 before March 15. Of course, as we’ve seen before if price stays below the $1600 level for another few weeks, this will set up a “price anomaly” where the price will, at some point, attempt to rally very aggressively to the upside to make up the difference.

Friday, February 14, 2020

UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Trend Forecast 2020 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This week the people of Britain got a taste for how the Coronavirus epidemic is going to break out in the UK. As apparently a Chinese woman infected with the Coronavirus flew from China to the UK before she was put into quarantine in China, boarded a flight to the UK, with no regard to the risks of infecting fellow passengers on the plane. No regard to the staff and the thousands of passengers at Heathrow airport.

Where instead of declaring that she was infected with the killer virus on arrival, went through customs and border control, exited the airport and then proceeded to take a Uber taxi without regard to the driver and his family or the other passengers who would ride in the Uber after her, to the nearby Lewisham hospital . Walking into the A&E department without regard to the staff and patients sat there, effectively declaring that I am ill with Coronavirus so give me treatment!

Friday, February 14, 2020

Coronavirus, Powell and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Coronavirus, Powell and Gold

The number of cases and deaths by the new coronavirus have escalated quickly. However, the fears subsided and the stock market rebounded. How did gold perform, and what can we expect from the king of metals next?

Should We Stop Worrying about the Coronavirus?

Well, that was a quick escalation. On February 2, when we wrote the first Fundamental Gold Report about the coronavirus, there were 14,557 confirmed cases and 305 deaths. Yesterday, the World Health Organization reported almost 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths. So, the number of infections and death toll of coronavirus have surged in recent days. Moreover, China has changed today its diagnosis methodology (to include “clinically diagnosed” cases), confirming 15,152 new cases and 254 additional deaths. Hence, as the chart below shows, the total number of cases in China has reached 59,800, while the global number has already surpassed 60,000.

Friday, February 14, 2020

How the Corona Virus is Affecting Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Justin_Weinger

The spread of the coronavirus which emanated in Wuhan China has likely weighed on global growth. For weeks, nearly all transportation through out cities around China were halted. The spread of the virus appears to have stopped accelerating, while the number of cases continues to grow. Stocks around the globe have seen mixed results. The rush to safe-haven assets, has allowed US equity market to rally.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 4 of my British Pound Analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020

• British Pound 2019 Review (Part1)
• Political Implications
• Fundamentals
• US Dollar Index
• GBP Long-term analysis
• GBP Trend Analysis
• Elliott Wave Theory
• GBP 2020 Forecast Conclusion

However the whole of analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work: British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Owning and Driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020 - 2 YEAR Review / ConsumerWatch / Land Rover

By: HGR

If your considering buying a Land Rover Discovery Sport in 2020, either New are Approved Used then watch my comprehensive 2 YEAR review of what to expect after having owned and driven a Disco Sport for 2 FULL YEARS!

This is Landrover Discovery Sport HSE BLACK that I bought under Approved Used when the car was 15 months old with 11,000 miles on the clock, so still well under manufacturers warranty, followed by a few months under Land Rovers Approved Used extended warranty.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Shipping Rates Plunge, Commodities and Stocks May Follow / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

An almost immediate reaction to the Coronavirus outbreak in China and throughout most of the world has sent shock-wave through the global markets – particularly seen in Shipping and Oil.  The actions within China to attempt to contain the virus spread include shutting down entire cities and setting up mass quarantine events.  It is estimated that as many as 8+ million people were quarantined within cities in China throughout the Chinese New Year.

Chinese President, Xi Jinping, warned recently that the Coronavirus, and the efforts to stop it, may greatly reduce the Chinese economy over the next few months.  The Chinese President urged top officials to refrain from “more restrictive measures” to contain the virus.  It is our opinion that more restrictive measures are essential to efforts to contain the spread of this virus and that further contraction in the Chinese economy, as well as other economies, are almost set in stone at this point.

Information we’ve received from some friends living in China and Hong Kong suggest travel is very restricted, face masks are very scarce, people are staying inside their homes and surviving as family units within very close contact with one another.  They are scared, trapped and unable to do anything other than try to wait this out.  Imagine what this is doing to the local economies, shops, offices, and businesses?

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Today from Fed Chairman Powell…

Powell says Fed will aggressively use QE to fight next recession

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank would fight the next economic downturn by buying large amounts of government debt to drive down long-term interest rates, a strategy that has been dubbed quantitative easing, or QE.

Of course they will. The fix is always in, isn’t it? Wouldn’t want to let a system and associated economy so far out on a brittle limb weighed down by exponential debt leverage go it on its own, now would we? Wouldn’t want anything like a naturally functioning economy because until an utter and complete crash and clean out, there can be no such thing. So more debt manipulation it is!

Thursday, February 13, 2020

PALLADIUM - THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like… / Commodities / Palladium

By: MoneyMetals

The explosive price action seen in palladium recently is indicative of a physical shortage.

Put simply, available inventories are failing to keep up with demand (largely from the automotive industry).

According to Refnitiv GFMS, the palladium market will be under-supplied by 883,000 ounces this year.

Stresses on the physical market are showing up in spiking lease rates, illiquidity, widening bid/ask spreads, and disconnections between quoted spot prices and actual physical prices. Most importantly, the deficit in palladium supply is manifesting in the form of rising prices.