Monday, March 02, 2020

Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Outside China - Pandemic Day 84 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Whilst China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, meanwhile the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate, at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America, to imagine that there is just 1 infection in Egypt and 1 in Brazil is delusional, given the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents, instead the infected number in Africa and South America already likely runs into the several thousands that as of yet remain unrecorded, so expect a sharp spike in numbers at some point when the degree of infections is acknowledged.

Monday, March 02, 2020

Will Stocks Keep Cutting Through Supports Like a Hot Knife Through Butter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

During the first half of yesterday’s session, the bulls were in the driving seat after repelling sellers at the open. Yet again, their gains have evaporated, and stocks not only broke to new lows, but also closed there. Will today’s session be any different?

With the sizable daily volatility, it’s well worth checking the downswing on the weekly chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Monday, March 02, 2020

UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 34 Update / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include person to person infections that are unable to be linked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which remain the main transmission points for the virus..

Monday, March 02, 2020

UK Coronavirus WARNING - All Schools, Colleges, and Universities Closed by Mid March, Outbreaks Imminent! / Politics / Pandemic

By: N_Walayat

The fact that the UK only has 36 cases does not alter the fact that the UK is still in the calm before the coronavirus storm stage as my forecast of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in the infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in 90 deaths. Analysis of what is happening in South Korea illustrates that outbreaks tend to be explosive, soon jumping from 1 to 1000 infected in a matter of days, which is likely the pattern to expect in the UK, that I am sure will prompt emergency, even panic response such as cancellation of virtually all public events, schools, universities and colleges being closed, and infected hot spots being quarantined, all likely to start taking place by Mid March, as I first warned to expect to happen over 2 weeks ago. Where Britain's school could remain closed until September!

Monday, March 02, 2020

Quit Social Media and Simplify Your Life... Like Me! / Politics / Social Media

By: Jeff_Berwick

After a crazy and busy week at Anarchapulco, I’m happy to be spending some much needed alone time in Valle de Bravo, Mexico, with the family.

As I have spent some time reading and decompressing, I thought to myself that I really need to make some serious changes in my life.

All of a sudden, the other day, the name Howard Hughes popped into my head which led me to do a quick bit of research about his life out of curiosity.

Monday, March 02, 2020

Stock Market Post Bubble Contraction Finally Arrives / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Plunger

I would like to put out a quick special report to update you on the big picture in light of all of the market turmoil and provide some of the concepts which may suggest where we are going from here.

First off I you were reading these reports in the late summer of 2018 I put out a 3-part series on the Post Bubble Contraction (PBC). Well the PBC has now arrived. Of course it was virtually impossible to predict when it would finally get triggered since it was the FED fueling the bubble for as long as they could. But it appears the bubble has finally been pricked by a black swan from left field.

The below concepts you have all heard from me before, but now we see them actually unfold, so let’s review them again.

The Stock Market Top is in…But the Bear Market actually began on December 14th 2018.

December 14th, 2018, according to Dow Theory Methodology, was the date that a bear market sell signal was triggered, announcing that we were now in a bear market. This valid signal only occurs in Phase III of a bull market. Since then, despite the wild blow off top to new Dow highs the sell signal was never reversed and remained valid. To reverse the signal would require the transports going to new highs along with the Dow. Since this never occurred the signal remained in affect.

Monday, March 02, 2020

Stock Market 20-week Cycle Low ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend from the 2009 low continues.

SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate correction underway

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net

Monday, March 02, 2020

Stock Market Dow, Three Strikes and your Out! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: readtheticker

The Dow has topped out with major events, the current virs could be the third strike!

2001 - 9/11 Twin Towers
2007 - Bear Sterns
2020 (?) - C19 Virus

Chart explains all. Dow Jones Industrial's comparing market tops 2000, 2007 and 2020.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Could Get Worse for Markets But Is a Gold/Silver Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back our good friend, Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has decades of market research and trading experience specializing in the metals and commodity markets and even authored a book back in 2016 titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the US credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.

He's regularly been making more great calls right here on our podcast over the years and it's great to have him on with us for the first time in 2020.

Greg, thanks as always for your time and welcome back. How are you?

Greg Weldon: I'm great Michael, thanks for the invite as always.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Before their recent surge on gold regaining $1600, the gold stocks spent much of the past half-year or so largely drifting sideways to lower.  That high consolidation really weighed on sentiment, with greed giving way to apathy.  This sector normally tends to suffer a seasonal slump into mid-March, paving the way for gold stocks’ spring rally.  That’s their second-strongest seasonal surge of the year running into early June.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Will Gold Shine Due to Coronavirus Infecting the Global Economy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

With new cases of COVID-19 outside China rising, the chances of a pandemic and global recession have increased recently. What are the implications for the gold market?

Coronavirus Spreads Over the World

Unfortunately, the new coronavirus remains the hottest topic of the news. Although the COVID-19 epidemic has been slowing down in China since the beginning of February, it has quickly spread to several other countries. The WHO’s situation report from February 26 says that the infections of the new coronavirus has been reported in 37 countries. Actually, for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic on December 8, there have been more new cases reported from countries outside of China than from China. With so many countries, including the Western ones, struggling with the disease, the COVID-19 ceased to be Asian issue and has become a truly global issue. As world inches closer to the real pandemic, the financial markets could become even more nervous, so we could see more safe-haven flows into the gold market.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Sweden Ends Its Experiment with Negative Interest Rates. Should Gold Be Worried? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In December, the Sveriges Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, has raised the main interest rate from -0.25 percent back to zero, ending its experiment with the negative interest rate policy, as the chart below shows.

Chart 1: Riksbank’s repo rate from January 2010 to January 2020.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Gold And Stocks Are Both Headed Lower, But… / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

Gold and stocks are moving south together; but they are not correlated. Nor, are they inversely correlated, as some gold enthusiasts claim.

Reference to gold as a safe haven has some investors buying gold to hedge against a stock market crash. It is almost as if gold has become a pseudo defensive stock.

It seems investors actually expect gold’s price to go up when the stock market goes down; and vice-versa.

If that were the case, how do you explain the extended periods when both moved together; or the price action of gold relative to stocks in the past four days? Gold currently is lower in price than it was before stocks tumbled nearly 4000 points.

Sunday, March 01, 2020

South Korea Coronavirus COVID-19 WARNING - R0 4.6 Infection Spread Rate! / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Reliable South Korean data warns of literally exponential spread of the coronavirus in the early days of outbreaks, where R0 rather than being 2 to 2.6 as being the consensus view instead South Korean data calculates R0 to 4.6! Literally explosive growth in the number of infections before a nations healthcare system is able to respond, this explosive early growth is likely as a consequence that those infected can be asymptomatic for between 3 and 7 days and a few super spreads for as many as 14 days! Who unbeknown are literally infecting dozens of people per day who themselves go onto infect several each..

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Dow Stock Market Coronavirus Trend Forecast Conclusion - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market that had been an state of denial for several weeks has FINALLY woken up to the reality of the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC STORM that has triggered a series of waterfall drops this weeks, slicing through technical support levels as though they did not exist, catching most market commentators completely by surprise who had assumed that the virus would remain largely within China's borders. However, my Coronavirus analysis in a series of articles and videos starting late January increasingly warned to expect severe market consequences in response to the unfolding Global Pandemic.

This video is part 4 of a series of analysis that warned of the increasing probability for a Coronavirus stocks bear market that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?. Which illustrates that the key driver for the stock market trend for much of 2020 is not going to be fundamental, or technical but rather VIRAL!.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

How Moving Averages Help You to Define Stock Market Trend / InvestorEducation / Technical Analysis

By: EWI

One way to think of a moving average is that it’s an automated trend line.

The "moving average" is a technical indicator of market strength which has stood the test of time.

More than 30 years ago, Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter described this indicator in his essay, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful." What he said then remains true today:

... a simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Is This A Repeat of February 2018 Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Back in early 2018, after a dramatic rally in early January 2018, the US stock market collapsed suddenly and violently – falling nearly 12% in a matter of just 9 trading days.  Our researchers asked the question, is the current collapse similar to this type of move and could we expect a sudden market bottom to setup?

Although there are similarities between the setups of these two events, our researchers believe there are two unique differences between the selloff in 2018 and the current selloff.  We’ll attempt to cover these components and setups in detail.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

South Korea Coronavirus WARNING - R0 4.6 Outbreak Infection Rate! / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Coronavirus pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket ever higher, now totaling 2931 infected and 17 deaths, this despite deploying immense resources towards containment. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases, whilst reports continue of mass cremations taking place.

Therefore given the reliability of South Korea's monitoring and systems, then the outbreak in this nation is likely more accurately reflects what to expect in terms of outbreaks in the West than China's statistics that everyone now agrees have grossly under reported the true number of infections AND deaths by several magnitudes. In fact China's statistics are modeled on an outbreak starting Mid January rather than early December! And thus my recent in-depth analysis concluded that Chinese reported cases are under reported by at least X7, and deaths by X2.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Stock Market Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market that had been an state of denial for several weeks has FINALLY woken up to the reality of the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC STORM that has triggered a series of waterfall drops this weeks, slicing through technical support levels as though they did not exist, catching most market commentators completely by surprise who had assumed that the virus would remain largely within China's borders. However, my Coronavirus analysis in a series of articles and videos starting late January increasingly warned to expect severe market consequences in response to the unfolding Global Pandemic.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

The Greatest Economic Depression Just Began. This Is No Drill / Economics / Great Depression II

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321gold rings the alarm bells on the fallout from the coronavirus. Exactly a month ago I warned that the coronavirus outbreak was going to pop the "Everything Bubble." I did something fairly subtle. I buried my main message under a whole heap of cow manure. It doesn't make a rat's ass if I was right or wrong about calling for a market crash in October or the Fed dumping piles of new crisp $100 bills onto a bonfire in September.

This time I'm going to put my message right at the top so no one can miss it. I quote from the January 27th piece, "This has the potential for being the biggest mass casualty event in world history. At the very least it will take down the financial system as the world economy grinds to a halt with efforts to contain the virus."