Sunday, April 05, 2020

PAYPAL WARNING - Your Stimulus Funds Are at Risk of Being Frozen for 6 Months! / ConsumerWatch / Scams

By: N_Walayat

Paypal seeing an opportunity in a crisis, one of wanting to manage the US Governments distribution of $1200 Coronavirus stimulus payments to every adult American who earns under $75,000 per year and $500 for each child and thus have started a campaign of buttering up the public and politicians in allowing PAYPAL access to YOUR STIMULUS FUNDS including sending out emails to account holders full of promises of help in this time of national crisis.

Sunday, April 05, 2020

Stocks Hanging By the Fingernails? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

After Wednesday’s slide, the S&P 500 moved higher yesterday. While the move itself hadn’t surprised us as we’ve earlier called for a pause in the downswing, the question is whether we can expect some more upside shortly.

Long story short, that’s unlikely. Let’s open today’s analysis with the daily chart examination (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Sunday, April 05, 2020

US Federal Budget Deficits: To $30 Trillion and Beyond / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

In my decade forecast, I projected that in the next recession that the deficit would climb to over $2 trillion. Clearly, that demonstrates I am an optimist. Here’s a chart I shared back in January.

Between reduced tax revenues and increased spending, I now expect this year’s deficit will be at least $4 trillion.

Sunday, April 05, 2020

The Lucrative Profitability Of A Move To Negative Interest Rates - Pandemic Edition / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

When it comes to the recession that is being created by the pandemic lockdowns - then the U.S. government and Federal Reserve have no intention of just letting the market forces play out. Instead, the intention is to contain a potential deeper round of crisis with the most extreme interventions yet. One very real possibility is for the Fed to follow the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, and to spend trillions of dollars to buy government (and corporate) debt while creating negative interest rates.

Sunday, April 05, 2020

Visa Denials: How to avoid it and what to do if your Visa is denied? / Personal_Finance / Credit Cards & Scoring

By: Submissions

When it comes to visa stories, there are as many success stories out there as there are sob stories. It is even safe to say that the sob stories exceed the success stories these days. And they continue to grow by the day.

In fact, according to a recent survey conducted on U.S. immigration history, it has been established that the United States alone denies nearly 4 million visa applications every year for a variety of reasons. And like that wasn’t enough; under the administration of Donald Trump, the denial rate has jumped from 8.3% to 11.3 percent in the last few years, a 37% jump in rejection rate.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

WARNING PAYPAL Making a Grab for US $1200 Stimulus Payments / Personal_Finance / Scams

By: N_Walayat

Paypal seeing an opportunity in a crisis, one of wanting to manage the US Governments distribution of $1200 Coronavirus stimulus payments to every adult American who earns under $75,000 per year and $500 for each child and thus have started a campaign of buttering up the public and politicians in allowing PAYPAL access to YOUR STIMULUS FUNDS including sending out emails to account holders full of promises of help in this time of national crisis.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

Stock Market Enters a 25-35year Crisis Cycle Re-evaluation Event / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We can only imagine what many of you are thinking and feeling right now.  Shock?  Concern?  Despair?  Some of you have already emailed us asking about the US and Global markets to find out what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting.  Today, we’re going to show you what the longer-term Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting for the S&P and NASDAQ.

First, we want to ask you to slow down, take a few seconds to realize we will recover from this virus event and the smart thing to do is protect your family, protect your assets, and prepare for the future.  Market crashes happen only 2-3 times in a lifetime and they, not the end of the world or financial system. 

Saturday, April 04, 2020

US Stock Market Next Heavy Down Leg Believed Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses what he sees ahead for the markets.

We are going to look at an array of important factors pointing to another severe drop in the broad U.S. stock market imminently, both factors external to it and indications on the charts for the S&P 500 index (and other indices which we won't have time to look at).

First it is well worth watching another classic video from Greg Mannarino posted on March 30: WOW...ZERO Economic Activity in which he puts into words what many of us are thinking, and it's worth watching this at least a couple of times. Rather amusingly, "The Dark Side" tried to buy Greg off to shut him up, but he wasn't having it. This is how they operate – they buy you off, marginalize you, or take you out, whether you are an individual, a company or a country.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

The Opening Salvo in the Renewed Stock Downswing / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As expected, the S&P 500 had a down session yesterday. Opening with a sizable gap, the bears continued their push to move prices lower. Since the futures have been pointing higher before the unemployment claims came in, does it mark a tradable turnaround?

In short, that’s unlikely. Let’s start though with the daily chart examination (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Saturday, April 04, 2020

The US Dollar Index: How Can it Help You Trading? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Submissions

Luckily, there are various ways to optimize your trading besides technical and fundamental analysis, especially when it comes to forex trading. Chances are that you are currently thinking about the live forex rates, however, there is an even more powerful tool to take advantage of the US dollar Index.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

US COVID-19 Death Toll Higher Than China’s Now. Will Gold Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

This week, the US scored a sad record. The number of deaths related to the coronavirus in the US surpassed the death toll in China. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?

US Epidemiological Situation Is Grim
Just as people were overly optimistic before the stock market top, they can be too pessimistic right now. This is a real risk and we take it into account. However, the incoming data confirm our view expressed in the April edition of the Gold Market Overview that “the US will be severely hit” and that “the worst is yet ahead for the States”. Unfortunately, it turned out that we were right. On Monday, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the United States. So much for the claims that influenza is worse than coronavirus. The U.S. coronavirus-related deaths reached more than 4,000 deaths, which is behind only Italy and Spain! The US death toll has actually surpassed the number of deaths in China (much more populous country), as you can see in the chart below.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

Concerned That Asia Could Blow A Hole In Future Economic Recovery / Economics / Coronavirus Depression

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Thinking somewhat far off into the future, our researchers believe China/Asia could become the next Black Hole in the global economy.  China recently released its March PMI number which came in at 52.0 – showing moderate expansion in Chinese manufacturing.  The February Chinese PMI level was 35.7.  We strongly believe China wants to show some strength in their perceived economic recovery and that these PMI numbers are somewhat “manufactured for effect”.

Saturday, April 04, 2020

Bracing for Europe’s Coronavirus Contractionand Debt Crisis / Economics / Pandemic

By: Dan_Steinbock

Since inadequate preparedness prevailed in Europe until recently, the consequent pandemic will cast a prolonged, dark shadow over the regionwide economy – starting with the contraction, followed by the debt crisis.

Around the world, the early economic defense against the economic impact of the novel coronavirus has been by the major central banks to cut down the rates, inject liquidity and re-start major asset purchases.

Friday, April 03, 2020

Stocks: When Grass Looks Greener on the Other Side of the ... Pond / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

Let's start by establishing that the stock market is not driven by the news. Aggregate stock prices are driven by waves of optimism and pessimism -- which go from one extreme to another -- as reflected by the Elliott wave model. That's what makes the stock market predictable.

Hence, Elliott wave analysis is at the core of EWI's stock market forecasts.< /p>

Friday, April 03, 2020

How the C-Factor Could Decimate 2020 Global Gold and Silver Production / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Item: March 16, 2020. A huge poly-metallic (gold, silver, copper) mining operation in Mongolia "has suspended operations" after authorities "restricted the movement of goods and people within the country."

Item: March 17. In Peru, one of the world's largest primary silver-gold producers has its 4 mines "temporarily suspended" following the Government's Declared State of Emergency.

Item: March 18. A Canadian mining major suspends construction of a $4.7b copper mine upgrade in Chile affecting 15,000 workers.

Friday, April 03, 2020

US Between Scylla and Charybdis Covid-19 / Politics / Pandemic

By: Richard_Mills

I’m just going to come right out and say it: The United States is not equipped to deal with a pandemic. The nation of 327 million, despite having the number one economy in the world, and by far the most powerful military, is shockingly ill-prepared, not only in terms of having the proper supplies to fight the hard-to-kill coronavirus, but also regarding its lack of focus, its dearth of leadership, and perhaps most failingly, its inability to mobilize a population against a common viral enemy. 

On Monday, US stocks rallied, due to traders optimistic over efforts to deliver rapid testing of the coronavirus, and multinational Johnson & Johnson announcing a potential vaccine candidate. 

Prompt and widespread testing in other countries, like South Korea, has been effective in curbing the spread of covid-19. But the US testing regime has proved woefully inadequate. There are not nearly enough test kits available, it took too long to start testing, and the kits have been slow to deliver results to an anxious population. 

Friday, April 03, 2020

Covid19 What's Your Risk of Death Analysis by Age, Gender, Comorbidities and BMI / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Coronavirus Infections and deaths trend trajectories for the UK and US continue to go parabolic, far beyond anything anyone could have imagined even 2 weeks ago when the US had just 170 deaths and the UK 100, since which time they have continued to follow catastrophic trajectories recently prompting dire warnings out of the UK and US to expect as many as 20,000 UK deaths and 200,000 US deaths.

The focus of this analysis will be on the probability of dieing if one contracts Covid19 over the coming weeks, analysis which is based on data from the Journal of American Medical Association and the Lancet's analysis of Italian and Chinese deaths.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

US Coronavirus Infections & Deaths Trend Trajectory - How Bad Will it Get? / Politics / Pandemic

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The only adult in the White House Dr Fauci has started stating what sort of death toll to expect for the Untied States over the coming months of between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths as a consequence of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Trump implemented the Defence Production act mobilising US industry into producing tens of thousands of ventilators, which whilst good is however TOO LATE as the actions the US is taking today should have been taken a month ago!

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Silver Looks Bearish Short to Medium Term / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Clive_Maund

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he is bearish in the short to medium term.

Whichever way you cut it, silver's chart looks bearish for the short to medium term, but against this we must set its rapidly improving COT structure and the mega-bullish silver to gold ratio (by all past standards).

Silver's 7-month chart is a rather grim picture. On it we see that key support failed this month, leading to a dramatic plunge to new lows, and this support has now become resistance. In addition we see that moving averages have swung into bearish alignment, with a bearish "death cross" having occurred about a week ago. The relief rally of the past week or so in sympathy with the relief rally in the broad stock market fueled by Fed intervention, that we predicted and played via leveraged silver ETFs and Calls, is therefore thought to be petering out and set to be followed by another probably steep selloff, congruent with another decline in the broad stock market, and a potentially heavy decline in the precious metals sector.

Thursday, April 02, 2020

Mickey Fulp: 'Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste' / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

In discussion with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, the Mercenary Geologist offers his take on the coronavirus pandemic, its impacts on economic policy and what he's buying (or not buying) right now.

Maurice: Today we will find out if we are at risk of losing our liberty to the coronavirus, along with buying opportunities for your investment portfolio. Joining us for a conversation is Mickey Fulp, the world-renowned Mercenary Geologist.

Absolute delight to speak with you sir. Mickey, you are the Mercenary Geologist, but you're equally regarded highly for your views on philosophy and politics, and every time we speak my neurons expand. You and I have shared concerns regarding the erosion of liberty as the federal government and municipalities have been perniciously increasing their influence over the years, and in particular in the response to the coronavirus. Sir, what concerns should we have regarding our liberties that many people are not considering due to the government's response to the coronavirus?