Thursday, March 12, 2020
Is This A Bear Market When Stocks Crash 20% and Bonds Spike 30% / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It is another blood bath in the markets with everything down, including TLT (bonds) and gold. Safe havens falling with stocks is not a good sign as people are not comfortable owning anything, even the safe havens, and this to me is a very bearish sign.
Now, with that said, this is one day one of this type of price action and one day does not constitute a new trend or change the game, but if we start seeing more of this happen, we could be on the verge of the bear market we have all been expecting to show it ugly face.
The SP500 (SPY) is down 19.5% from the all-time high we saw just three weeks ago, and the general bias for most people is once the market is down 20% that is a new bear market. I can’t entirely agree with that general rule. Still, a lot of damage is happening to the charts. If price lingers down here or trades sideways for a few months I will see it as a new bear market consolidation before it heads lower, and we start what could be very deep market selloff and test 2100 on the SP500 index (SPY $210) for the next leg down looking forward several months.
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Thursday, March 12, 2020
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have been guiding investors through bull and bear markets since 1979. From that long experience, they know that at certain market junctures, they can help the most by giving everyone their latest analysis free.
Now is one of those market junctures.
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Thursday, March 12, 2020
Markets, Mania, and Meltdown - a Brief Synopsis of the Past Month / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Andy_Sutton
The past month has been one of nearly continuous turmoil in the financial markets”. That might well be the understatement of this still fairly new century. Keep in mind that during the past 20 years, we’ve had 2 significant recessions (according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis), a complete meltdown of the .com mania, the inflation of a real-estate bubble and its subsequent bursting, the halving of US financial indexes, and the bankruptcy of names like Lehman Brothers, and AIG to name a few. Throw in a massive bailout, a fusillade of rescue programs like TARP, TSLF and the resulting blowout of the federal reserve’s balance sheet. This is within the first 10 years. Keep that in mind.
The second ten years have featured D-E-B-T – on all levels. Governments of the world, states and provinces, local municipalities and parishes, students, consumers, homeowners. In short? Pretty much everyone. That debt has driven the economy for the past decade. Globally. Many will think this is just an American problem. It’s not. Misery loves company, right? Not so fast. In this brave new world of interlocking economies and financial systems, a failure on the other side of the world can cause problems in our own back yards.
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Thursday, March 12, 2020
Get The Best Guidance From A Business Consultant - Arshiya Jahanpour / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
A business consultant is an experienced professional who analyses and investigates the organisations and provides solutions for the problems. The organisation is provided with the help to make efficient plans to assist them in meeting the goals. Arshiya jahanpour, a business consultant assists you in resolving the crucial issues of your business which are faced by them. He has the knowledge and experience of her field. Your business organisation will be helped in planning, organising, strategizing and growth. The analysis is done by him so that the issues in your company can be resolved.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Gold Peeks Above $1,700 amid Coronavirus Fears and Market Turmoil / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
On Sunday, Italy registered a huge jump in new cases of the COVID-19, the stock market plunged, while the oil market crashed. Tuesday morning, and Italy is on lockdown. Meanwhile, gold jumped above $1,700. What’s next for the yellow metal?
Gold Jumps Above $1,700
Last week, I wrote that:
from the fundamental point of view, the environment of fear, ultra low interest rates, weak equity markets and elevated stock market volatility should be positive for the yellow metal (…) the good news is that the markets expect further Fed’s interest rate cuts on the way – it lays the foundation for future gains in the gold market.
And indeed, we did not have to wait long for more gains. On Sunday, gold jumped briefly above $1,700, reaching another psychologically important level, as the chart below shows. The yellow metal made it to this price point for the first time since late 2012.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
As Virus Stirs Panic, Financial Doomsday Scenario Looms – Are YOU Prepared? / Stock-Markets / Pandemic
By: Money_Metals
We appear to be entering the sort of scenario that doomsday preppers have been warning about for years. A pandemic is spreading death and panic around the world. Markets are crashing. Store shelves are emptying…
How long will it be before the economy grinds to a halt completely? How long will it be before the heavily leveraged financial system simply freezes up?
Emergency rate cuts by the Federal Reserve won’t necessarily keep the banks open. Central bankers won’t necessarily keep grocery stores supplied with food. And they won’t necessarily help you and your family survive the present crisis.
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Three golden rules you must learn as a currency trader / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market March and April 2020 Trend Forecast - Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from (How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis) that seeks to conclude in a probable trend forecast for the unfolding Coronavirus stocks bear market that has caught most market participants by surprise, one where the formulaic mainstream financial press see's a bottom in EVERY BOUNCE! Well the Dow's latest plunge Friday makes a mockery of such expectations of barely a few trading days ago! For as I try and point out from time to time that technical analysis on it's own is NOT enough! Which is why I try and keep my antenna's focused on any outside market influencing factors that could drive stock prices at some point in the future where we have the usual drivers such as population growth, climate change, governments printing money that resulted in driving the Dow from a 1930's low of 40 to the recent high of 29,600. Without money printing there would be no exponential stocks bull market as the indices rotate in new rising corps and eject old dieing corps. Likewise, way back in January when most were shrugging their shoulders to "corona what?" my antenna was focused on what was taking place in Hubei China that was sending alarm bell rings despite art the time the Dow was was busy making a series of new all time highs.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Will Vitamin D and Vitamin C Protect & Prevent Infection? / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness
By: N_Walayat
While there are several different things that can be done to help prevent contamination spread , such as wearing Personal Protection Equipment (PPE), like a ParticleMax P3 Virus Filter in combination with a Gas Mask (e.g., MIRA Safety CM-6M), it is also good to ensure that your body’s immune system is boosted to help fight off an infection. Immune system supplements ensure that you have no compromising vitamin deficiencies in your immune system function. The following video will list out my Top immune system supplements for helping fight off a virus from infecting your body such as Vitamin D and then to help youy body fight of infections such as Vitamin C.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
The Fed’s Baffling Response to the Coronavirus Explained / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Ellen_Brown
When the World Health Organization announced on Feb. 24 that it was time to prepare for a global pandemic, the stock market plummeted. Over the following week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by more than 3,500 points, or 10%. In an attempt to contain the damage, the Federal Reserve on March 3 slashed the fed funds rate from 1.5% to 1.0%, in its first emergency rate move and biggest one-time cut since the 2008 financial crisis. But rather than reassuring investors, the move fueled another panic sell-off.
Exasperated commentators on CNBC wondered what the Fed was thinking. They said a half-point rate cut would not stop the spread of the coronavirus or fix the broken Chinese supply chains that are driving U.S. companies to the brink. A new report by corporate data analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet calculates that some 51,000 companies around the world have one or more direct suppliers in Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus. At least 5 million companies globally have one or more tier-two suppliers in the region, meaning that their suppliers get their supplies there; and 938 of the Fortune 1,000 companies have tier-one or tier-two suppliers there. Moreover, fully 80% of U.S. pharmaceuticals are made in China. A break in the supply chain can grind businesses to a halt.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Gold to Silver Ratio Hits 100! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold is testing its previous 2020 highs, but silver plunged anyway, which created a very special situation. Namely, the gold to silver ratio just jumped to the 100 level.
This may not seem like a big deal, because ultimately people buy metals, not their ratio, but it actually is a huge deal. This ratio is observed by investors and traders alike, as it tends to peak at the market extremes. Moving to the 100 level might indicate that we are at a price extreme. But what kind of extreme would that be if silver is declining while gold moved up?
Let’s take a closer look at the gold to silver ratio chart for details.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Silver Loses Its Mettle – Part 2 (Technicals) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
Last week I talked about unrealistic expectations for the price of silver (see Silver Loses Its Mettle). My comments were centered on two specific factors: 1) silver’s primary role as an industrial commodity and 2) the fallacy of the gold-to-silver ratio.
Both of these items have their root in fundamentals, or lack of them.
In addition, I pointed out the fact that the price of silver has declined significantly in every single recession of the past fifty years.
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Wednesday, March 11, 2020
The DSI Says Gold and Bonds Are About to Tank / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321gold explains why he believes gold needs a correction.
In military aviation pilots are taught about an important concept called being on the Back Side of the Power Curve. For every aircraft and altitude there is a speed and power curve. Until the aircraft gets too slow things work just fine. A lot like the Fed. But when the aircraft flies too slow and drag gets too high, the addition of more power makes the situation worse. The aircraft stalls no matter how much power the pilot applies. A lot like the Fed.
On Tuesday the 3rd of March the Fed surprised the market with a 50 basis point drop in interest rates. The move was intended to reassure the market that the Fed had things under control. The market in turn surprised the Fed by doing the opposite of what those investing using the rear view mirror believed.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Key Support Levels for the S&P 500, Dow and TSX / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Donald_W_Dony
The market sell-off continues to build as many investors believe more downside slippage is coming. Sells in mutual funds and individual stock portfolios, as reported, are reaching highs not seen since 2015.
Yet, many institutions are now positioning trades for the inevitable rebound.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) are showing a build-up of positions at certain key levels.
For the S&P 500, 2740 appears to be a mark where positions are being established. For the Dow, 23,500 and for the TSX,14,675 are being tested (Chart 1).
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Before Stock Market Sell-Off, This Indicator Posted Its "Largest 1-Day Jump" in 10 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
A revealing perspective on the stock market… and the "unexpected"
Most investors are surprised when a big trend turn occurs in the stock market.
A big reason why is because most market participants tend to linearly extrapolate the current trend into the future. Indeed, instead of getting cautious as a trend persists, they tend to do the opposite and ramp up their expectations. This applies during both down- and uptrends.
Let's first look at an example when the stock market had been in a major downtrend. As you'll recall, the market's last major bottom occurred in March 2009. The then bear market had been going on for 17 months.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Fed's Real Mandate: Ever Expanding Asset Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Michael_Pento
Wall Street hit a new all-time high on February 20th. It was supposed to be smooth sailing from there, riding along the global liquidity wave. But then, that wave crashed into what turned out to be the fastest correction from a new high in the history of the US stock market. Even though the fall was mild in comparison to the record-breaking bull run of the past few years, it was enough to frighten central planners to the core. Hence, we had further confirmation on Tuesday, March 3rd of what we already knew: our central bank has been fully corrupted and co-opted by Wall Street.The Fed lowered rates by 50bps in an emergency meeting, even though its regularly scheduled meeting was just two weeks away--maybe Trump will now give Powell the Presidential Medal of Freedom. But someone should have informed the White House and the Fed that the 4th rate cut in a rate-cutting cycle has nearly always led to market panics. But to be clear, the only reason the Fed cut rates is that the stock market suffered a brief correction. It wasn't a bear market or a recession. It wasn't even runaway deflation or an outright recession scare, …but just an 8% fall in stock prices from an all-time bubble high at the time of its decision.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Two Scenarios for Precious Metals in the Unfolding Cronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: MoneyMetals
Extreme volatility in the equity markets has investors wondering what to expect. Even the hardiest of stock market bulls are finally asking some serious questions about whether the top is in.
Stocks have long been priced for perfection and suddenly conditions are looking far from perfect. The coronavirus may be the pin which pricks the latest Fed-blown bubble.
Precious metals investors have been preparing against a rainy day. They may be less surprised by the turmoil in markets over the past couple of weeks. But there are still big questions about how metals prices might behave, especially if the current turmoil in markets should evolve into a full-blown financial crisis.
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Gold Hedging the Decline and Fall of a Currency / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020
By: Michael_J_Kosares
The baseline case for gold 320 AD
We sometimes forget that inflation is a process rather than an event. One of the better-known examples of that axiom is the nearly two centuries-long debasement of Rome’s silver denarius – an inflationary episode Jack Whyte, a writer of historical fiction, skillfully addresses in his latest novel, The Burning Stone.
Set in Great Britain in the fourth century AD during the Roman occupation, The Burning Stone is a prequel to Whyte’s engaging, seven-book series on King Arthur – The Camulod Chronicles. Throughout the series, Whyte juxtaposes the rise of Arthur’s Camelot against Rome’s decline. This particular story is told through the lens of a young Roman from a wealthy family with banking, political and military interests who flees to Britain after his immediate family is murdered for reasons that remain a mystery for most of the novel.
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Tuesday, March 10, 2020
VITAMIN D3 Could Save Your Life! Coronavirus Pandemic Protection & COVID-19 Illness Mitigation / Personal_Finance / Health and Fitness
By: N_Walayat
There are several medical studies such as reported by the BMJ that demonstrate that supplementing with Vitamin D helps protect against respiratory tract infections whether their bacterial or viral.
Which means Vitamin D could
a. Stop you from becoming infected.
b. If infected have a far milder illness
c. And if you are unlukcy to have severe illness, then Vitamin D supp,entation now could make the difference between recovery and death!
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Monday, March 09, 2020
Energy Complex Deflation Was All in the Charts / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: Rambus_Chartology
I promised you on Friday that I would take an in-depth look at the energy complex in the Weekend Report. If there is one sector to define the possible deflationary event we’ve been discussing for the last several months or so oil is probably the most important commodity of all. Eventually we’ll know the cause in no uncertain terms, but the charts have been suggesting for a long time now that something is afoot and we need to pay attention.
Lets start by looking at the UNG, natural gas fund, as it has been leading the way lower. This first chart is a 10 month daily look which shows a 6 point diamond consolidation pattern which at the time of its development I thought would probably be a reversal pattern to the upside as the price for natural gas was already so low. As you know I usually try to take one position on the initial breakout and a second position on the backtest. I missed the initial breakout and the backtest failed to reach the bottom rail of the diamond so I never got positioned. The other important feature on this chart is the blue bearish falling wedge which we know shows up in fast moving impulse moves.
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