Friday, October 02, 2015

Stock Market How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There’s so much negative real bad economic and financial news out there that it’s hard to choose a ‘favorite’, but I guess I’m going to have to go with what underlies and ‘structures’ it all, the IIF stating that for the first time since 1988 and the Reagan presidency, there’s more money flowing out of emerging markets than there’s flowing in. That is for sure a watershed moment. 

And no, that trend is not going to be reversed either anytime soon. Emerging economies, even if they wouldn’t include China -but they do-, have relied exclusively on selling ‘stuff’ to the rich world which combined cheap commodities with cheap labor, and now they see their customer base shrink rapidly just as they were preparing to harvest the big loot. 

Friday, October 02, 2015

Stocks Bull Market - We Have Some Bad News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Casey_Research

By Justin Spittler

The stock market just finished a brutal third quarter…

The S&P 500 fell 8%...and so did the Dow and the NASDAQ. It was the worst quarter for U.S. stocks since 2011.

Friday, October 02, 2015

A Worrying Set Of Recession Signals / Economics / Recession 2015

By: John_Mauldin

By John Mauldin

There is presently a bull market in complacency. There are very few alarm bells going off anywhere; and frankly, in reaction to my own personal complacency, I have my antenna up for whatever it is I might be missing that would indicate an approaching recession.

It was very easy to call the last two recessions well in advance because we had inverted yield curves. In the US at least, that phenomenon has a perfect track record of predicting recessions. The problem now is that, with the Federal Reserve holding the short end of the curve at the zero bound, there is no way we can get an inverted yield curve, come hell or high water. For the record, inverted yield curves do not cause recessions, they simply indicate that something is seriously out of whack with the economy. Typically, a recession shows up three to four quarters later.

Friday, October 02, 2015

U.S. Rake Hike - Fed Must Thank China and EM / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The US September jobs report deals a significant blow to the notion of a 2015 Fed hike--against which we consistently disagreed throughout the year - as it achieved the gloomy feat of disappointing across the board -- headline rate (first back-to-back months of sub 200K in 18 months), downward revision in prior months (-59K), notable decline in average hourly earnings, and the unchanged unemployment rate was offset by the decline in the participation rate to a fresh 38-year lows.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Stock Market Tinder Box / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

We have been using the Tinder Box theme in NFTRH lately.  As in, stock market sentiment is so bleak, so depressed as to be a Tinder Box with the elements to ignite a flame that bounces the market, to clear the over bearishness at least.

We  have successfully followed a plan every step of the way… 1. down from the August breakdown, 2. up on the bounce to SPX 1975 or 2040 (hit 2020) and now 3. down to a test of the October 2014 / August 2015 lows, which is a decision point between a bounce or an entry into a bear market (by making a lower low to October 2014).

Friday, October 02, 2015

The Reality Behind the Numbers in China’s Boom-Bust Economy / Economics / China Economy

By: MISES

Yonathan Amselem writes: Last year, the world was stunned by an IMF report which found the Chinese economy larger and more productive than that of the United States, both in terms of raw GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP). The Chinese people created more goods and had more purchasing power with which to obtain them — a classic sign of prosperity. At the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite more than doubled in value since October of 2014. This explosion in growth was accompanied by a post-recession construction boom that rivals anything the world has ever seen. In fact, in the three years from 2011 – 2013, the Chinese economy consumed more cement than the United States had in the entire twentieth century. Across the political spectrum, the narrative for the last fifteen years has been that of a rising Chinese hyperpower to rival American economic and cultural influence around the globe. China’s state-led “red capitalism” was a model to be admired and even emulated.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Gold and Silver End-Quarter Influences / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Alasdair_Macleod

In a generally quiet week, gold and silver prices were marked down in thin trade towards the quarter-end, when traders make up their books, with gold falling $32 to $1114.5, and silver by 58 cents by the close on Thursday night. Prices opened lower in early European trade, with gold less than $10 from the $1100 level.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Negative Jobs Report Sents SPX, TNX Lower / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The best proxy for the Monthly Jobs Report is TNX, because bonds start trading around 8:15. As you can see, it had a horrible miss, only 142,000 new jobs reported in August. The consensus expectation was 215,000.

The CES Birth/Death Model report has just been updated, showing a loss of 34,000 fictitious jobs in September. This statistic is made up out of thin air. But the August payroll number has also been revised downward. It is possible that the US has seen negative job growth for the first time in memory.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Don't be Fooled by the Recent Equity market Rallies. Its a Bear Market, Stupid! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Brian_Bloom

The daily chart below, of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, shows a significant technical non-confirmation: The On Balance Volume segment of the chart has been falling in the face of a rising Index, which indicates that sellers have been taking advantage of rising prices in the past couple of weeks to increase the rate at which they have been offloading their stocks.

Friday, October 02, 2015

U.S. Three Month Treasury Yields Turn Negative, Recession Warning? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Curve Watcher's Anonymous points out 3-month treasury yields dipped briefly negative on several days recently.

Yield on the 3-month bond was negative again today. Here is a table I put together with Treasury Yield Quotes from Bloomberg.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Knockout Punch for Gold Bugs / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Two months ago the precious metals complex became extremely oversold and ripe for a rebound. Two months later and the overbought condition and bearish sentiment has been alleviated to some degree. Sadly for bulls, Gold barely rebounded while both Silver and gold miners performed worse. The broad precious metals sector appears to be in position for a breakdown that could be a knockout blow to gold bulls and gold bugs.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Rates In This World? Everything Going Wrong At Once Edition / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Rubino

After the markets failed to embrace its most recent interest rate dither, the Fed dispatched pretty much its entire PR team to make sure we understood that rates would rise Next Month For Sure.

Then everything kind of fell apart. Emerging market capital flight accelerated…

Friday, October 02, 2015

US Bond Market - How to Fix This / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

This is a pickle wrapped in a conundrum surrounded by a puzzle, or something like that. The Fed declined to hike rates, which everyone thought was bullish, and then stocks got on the vomit comet. They’ve been going down on an elevator ever since.

I think what’s interesting here is how shamefully far behind the Fed is on this. Dudley is out there still talking rate hikes. Like, just the other day. He has gone right out of his tree. It’s almost as if he lost his B-Unit and can’t log into Bloomberg.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Survival Secrets from Colorado Resource Investing Front Lines / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: The_Gold_Report

Top experts and select companies traveled to Colorado last week for a pair of conferences focused on the survivors in the natural resource mining sector. The Gold Report reached out to some of the discerning voices there and asked whether the barrage of headlines from the Federal Reserve and China impacted the mood, and what companies they would be following up on when they returned to their offices. While the Precious Metals Summit was geared toward development-stage companies and the Denver Gold Forum was mostly populated by large, producing mining companies, everyone seemed fixated on survival. For those of us watching from home, experts we talked to were kind enough to name some of the standout companies they saw in boothland.

Friday, October 02, 2015

Deflation: It's Been a Stealth Move / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Elliott Wave International's European Financial Forecast Editor discusses deflation

In this new interview, Elliott Wave International's Brian Whitmer explains the indirect connection between Europe's volatility and deflation. Find out how Brian's advising his subscribers prepare for deflation.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

What Two Risks From Rising Interest-Rates Could Each Trigger A New Global Crisis? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2015

By: Dan_Amerman

Why are interest rates at historic lows in the United States and around the world? 

The widely-accepted answer is that very low interest rates exist for the purpose of stimulating economic growth and corporate profits, and are thereby helping the United States and other nations that are struggling with persistent and deep-rooted economic and unemployment problems.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Gold Cycle Running Out of Steam / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Bob_Loukas

I predicted that gold would rally last week up to the $1,155 area, and was also equally unsurprised when it was rejected the first time by that declining (see green trend-line on chart) resistance line. Those are standard or obvious Cycle pivot points, but how it continued lower yesterday to fall well below the 10 day moving average was not a “typical” development if you’re a supporter of the bull case in gold.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

NIRP, its Likelihood and Effect on Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Alasdair_Macleod

In last week's article I pointed out that negative interest rates should lead to a general shift in consumer preferences from money towards essential goods. Central bankers may wish for this outcome on a controlled basis to allow them to hit their price inflation targets, and this could happen quite quickly. If people face a tax on their cash and bank deposits, which is what a negative interest rate amounts to, they will simply reduce these balances, artificially boosting demand.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market 180 in 50 Weeks. This is Different / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

A lot has happened since that fateful October bottom in stocks, which was driven by a multitude of factors namely, market worries over end of Fed QE and escalating casualties from the Ebola virus. But those were only worries and not factual manifestations of data weakness. Today, the extended weakness in the world's biggest buyer of commodities, combined with the erosion of the "Gulf Nations' Put" as well as the decline in EM FX reserves is a de facto tightening from in and capital markets.

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market S&P 500 Volatility-Based Price Probability Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Richard_Shaw

• Historical volatility projection suggests the range of probable S&P 500 prices from around 1750 to 2050 by year-end
• Major trend indicators suggest high probability of prices ending in the lower half of the probability range
• GAAP P/E and forward operating P/E ratios reverting to 5-year and 10-year averages suggest prices in the 1700’s
• GAAP earnings have turned down and prices tend to follow
• But GAAP earnings yield relative to current and near-term prospective 10-year Treasury yield is supportive of current index price