Friday, November 19, 2021
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation expectations reached a record high. Is gold preparing a counterattack to punish gold bears?In a classic Monty Python sketch, nobody expects the Spanish inquisition. In the current marketplace, everyone expects high inflation. As the chart below shows, the inflation expectations embedded in US Treasury yields have recently risen to the highest level since the series began in 2003.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? / Stock-Markets / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets pulled back a bit this week as the U.S. dollar strengthened versus foreign currencies.
In other markets, the rising dollar index put downward pressure on crude oil and gasoline futures this week. Consumers who have been experiencing pain at the pump should get a bit of a reprieve in the days ahead.
But it could be short lived. The same government policies that helped drive gas prices higher this year are still in place: Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus coupled with disincentives for domestic energy production.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Some indicators are making records"
It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.
For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.
Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.
Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak / Politics / China
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Chinese people do NOT eat DOGS as part of pseudo religious superstition to ward off Summer heat and the practice is NOT widespread, because eating ones pet looks very bad to outside eyes therefore the CCP dictates Newspeak that Chinese people do NOT eat dogs even though there is annual an annual dog eating festival and Dog meat shops are widespread across China situated in every city and town.
Therefore that is the GOOD FACT that is spewed out from docile chinese mouth pieces across the media from mainstream to youtube to tiktok a case of "Don't be stupid, Chinese people DO NOT EAT DOGS!" When the reality to this Newspeak fiction is that Chinese people actually DO EAT DOGS! But the nature of the crime against Dogs i.e. the manner of their deaths is such that it basically just does NOT happen!
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! / Politics / Nuclear Power
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest cunning plan out of the China Clown Party (CCP) was to ORDER Evergrande to NOT default on it's bonds, finish the properties yet to be completed for customers, and make good on all those who invested in their wealth management programmes! Problem Solved! Just order the dying company to basically NOT Die. The Fed had the 2008 bailout all wrong, they should have just ordered the banks not to go Bust! It looks like Xi Ping has been drinking too much of his I am an immortal genius cool aid!
This speaks volumes about the lack of competency at the heart of the Chinese government (CCP). I strongly suspect a day of reckoning is fast approaching for China with it's ghost cities, crumbling infrastructure, collapsing bridges and buildings and dams that's are prone to bursting that are not even 30 years old!
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018:
- Bonds were trading lower
- Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows
- Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates started to rise a bit
- and the Stock market rallied to new all-time highs
All of these are components of a late Spring or early Summer type of Kondratieff Season.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.
COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends
Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.
Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
How to Jump Start Your Motherboard Without a Power Button With Just a Screwdriver / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
Building or upgrading your computer can be scary, but with some research and some guidance you can do it easily! In this series of videos I walk you through how install an AMD AM4 based processor, The Ryzen 5 5600x into the Gigabyte AORUS Elite AX V2 B550 ATX motherboard which supports the AM4 socket Ryzen CPUs. And in this video I show you how to power on your motherboard to make sure it works before you install it into your case so that you know the components work before you commence work on an installation.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Bitcoin & Ethereum 2021 Trend / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin peaked in March 2021 at $65k and then fell to a low of $29k Mid June. Whilst my in-depth look at crypto's of Mid June based on preceding bull and bear markets concluded that BTC could trade down to under $20k, for a drop of at least 70% off the peak that failed to materialise. Which means none of my string of buy limits from $26k down to $16k were triggered and thus I hold no bitcoin.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
FREE TRADE How to Get 2 FREE SHARES Fractional Investing Platform and ISA Specs / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Open an account with FREE TRADE, fund it with just £1 and you get a FREE SHARE worth between £3 and £200! Woooaaah! Apple? AMD? IBM? Nvidia? Microsoft even? If not what about Intel?
Not just that but you can also get a SECOND free trade if you go on and open their stocks and shares ISA! The value of which is dependant upon how much you transfer or deposit, check out the full details in the video and so you too can get 2 free shares! But you MUST sign up with a referral link https://magic.freetrade.io/join/nadeem/4c9ba1da , downloading the app directly won't get you anything!
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Inflation Ain’t Transitory – But the Fed’s Credibility Is / Economics / Inflation
By: MoneyMetals
Last week’s surge in gold and silver prices was due, at least in part, to a realization by Wall Street traders that inflation isn’t going away.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell had assured us all the trend higher in prices would be “transitory,” but another giant surge in the Consumer Price Index has investors wondering if they can believe anything Powell says.
They shouldn’t. People should view most of what Powell has to say about inflation in the same manner as they now view “14 days to flatten the curve” and other government lies.
Powell is well aware that higher prices are anything but temporary. For starters, many of the drivers behind higher prices are structural and won’t be disappearing any time soon.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
The real reason Facebook just went “all in” on the metaverse / Companies / Metaverse
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler - Imagine if McDonald’s (MCD) started selling cars…
Or Netflix (NFLX) got out of the movie business to deliver burritos…
Or Walmart (WMT) said it was developing a new cancer drug…
To many investors, Facebook’s (FB) big pivot is just as big a head-scratcher.
As you’ve probably heard by now, the social media giant announced it’s becoming a metaverse company.
Thursday, November 18, 2021
Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead?I have a short quiz for you! What the government should do to decrease inflation that reached the highest level in 30 years?
A) Decrease its expenditure to make room for the Fed to hike the federal funds rate.
B) Press the US central bank to tighten its monetary policy.
C) Deregulate the markets and lower taxes to boost the supply side of the economy.
D) Introduce a huge infrastructure plan that will multiply spending on energy, raw materials, and inputs in general.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Silver vs US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One would expect an inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Silver. The below chart shows periods when the dollar has been falling (USD Index) in RED and rising in blue, during which time there does tend to be a tendency for Silver price to exhibit an inverse relationship to varying degree.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Silver Supply and Demand Balance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So if Silver is closer to being an industrial commodity then a precious metal then one should look at supply and industrial demand for Silver for signs and portents of what the price may do.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.
AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.
Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Biden Spending to Build Back Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: MoneyMetals
President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion “infrastructure” bill into law on Monday amid growing concerns that his administration’s policies are fueling higher inflation.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, is warning of an economically and politically ruinous inflation problem brewing.
He wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed that “far too much fiscal stimulus and overly easy monetary policy” will “threaten prosperity and public trust unless clearly acknowledged and addressed.”
That was an apparent swipe at the Biden administration’s pattern of denials and misdirections whenever confronted about inflation.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Meshing Cryptocurrency Wealth Generation With Global Fiat Money Demise / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Raymond_Matison
The promise of electronic currencies
A couple of decades ago the internet started to revolutionize society in ways that could not have been predicted. Email systems developed and evolved to become indispensable and ubiquitous. People could sift and classify business data on spreadsheets in order to make smart business decisions faster. Vast libraries of books, data, news and other information from around the globe became increasingly available to anyone interested to read it. Global maps, archived music, and films could be shared, viewed, and listened to by anyone with a computer and access to the internet. Internet shopping became a reality; and just when it seemed that technological innovation might be slowing, all of these services migrated from desk-top computers to smart telephones. And this technology brought with it incredible amounts of new wealth.
Now continuing technological development is promising additional decades of innovation, that among other things will change ways in which we conduct financial payments, remit money across borders, invest in stocks, bonds and real estate, and control and custody our personal savings. These new technologies can be seen as decentralizing and liberating in the sense that individuals will be their own financial gatekeepers able to function as their own bank, without the need for permission from any trusted third party. This has already, and will continue to create much new wealth over coming years.
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the fourth and final part of my extensive analysis that maps a stock markets trend forecast into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend continues unimpeded but could be challenged in early 2022.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend which could continue into early 2022.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.