Friday, December 03, 2021
The Masters of the Universe and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Michael_J_Kosares
That small group of investment bankers – those Tom Wolfe dubbed the Masters of the Universe – made its fortune trading U.S. Treasuries. It still plays the same role today it always has but no longer occupies the center stage for Wall Street’s bond market. Instead, that role now belongs to the Federal Reserve. Since the introduction of quantitative easing in 2008, it has built a $5.57 trillion stockpile of U.S. Treasuries – a holding equal to almost 20% of the nearly $29 trillion national debt. Even more troubling, it purchased a mind-boggling 60% t0 80% of the federal debt issued since 2010, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.
“At 10:10 a.m. most workdays on Wall Street,” writes Liz McCormick in a recent Bloomberg column (under the unsettling headline, One Trader Calls the Shots in the Treasury Bond Market) officials at the Federal Reserve wade into the Treasury bond market. For the next 20 minutes, they proceed to snap up bonds of all shapes and sizes. They’re impervious to price moves, and they never sell. An indiscriminate bond-buying machine, they’ve now amassed a $5.5 trillion stockpile of the debt.” Wolfe’s Masters of the Universe have been replaced by one omnipresent, spectacularly powerful, and as it turns out, fickle Master of the Universe – America’s central bank.
“For almost two years,” says Gillian Tett, in a recent Financial Times editorial, “a frightening question has haunted the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. No, this is not whether the Fed can engineer a smooth exit from quantitative easing; nor whether this is the right moment to switch the governor (and policy). The question I am referring to is whether the U.S. Treasuries market is robust enough to handle the shocks that might arise from those first two problems. For while the U.S. government bond market used to be considered to be the world’s most liquid and deep asset class, in March 2020 that cozy assumption was smashed apart.”
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Friday, December 03, 2021
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Editor’s note: Today, we’re sharing an important adaptation from Chief Analyst Stephen McBride’s recent issue of Disruption Investor…One that’s more important than any one specific stock recommendation…
This is about a simple mindset shift that can make or break your retirement, so you’ll want to read closely.
***
“Most American investors now expect the stock market to crash.”
That Business Insider headline flashed across my screen recently.
Over half of American investors think stocks are headed for a crash, according to a survey by insurance giant Allianz.
New data from The American Association of Individual Investors paints a similarly gloomy picture. The number of stock market bulls is near its lowest level in a decade.
Judging by how investors feel, you’d think the market is struggling…
But did you know the S&P 500 hit new record highs last week?
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Friday, December 03, 2021
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? / Politics / Climate Change
By: S_N_Chatterjee
The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, which was held at the SEC Centre in Glasgow, Scotland, has just ended. After two weeks of intense debates among world leaders, there are a few encouraging signs and mainly disappointments standing out.
Topics related to climate change and global warming have been in the spotlight over the past couple of years and as temperatures continue to rise, the COP26 showed a renewed pledge to continue working on limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This was a target set at the Paris climate summit held in 2015 and the latest deal reinforces its importance.
Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Youtube and the wider internet is full of Peloton fan boys, yes the product may be good but that does not mean the stock is in any fit shape to park ones hard earned wealth into, not unless one is gambling. Which is why whenever I was asked about Peloton and other similar over hyped growth stock my response tended to be that it is far too high risk for me. We'll now all those who don't do the maths got to feel the pain of what it is like to be invested in such stocks that dominate the likes of Cathy Woods ARK funds.
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.
Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.
“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.
Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.
Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”
Source: WSJ
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The emergence of the new Omicron coronavirus strain is roiling financial and precious metals markets. Investors fear government health officials will order new lockdowns to try to contain it.
Never mind that previous lockdowns don’t appear to have worked. Some of the most draconian were imposed by Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Her state now records the nation's highest seven-day rate of infections.
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets / Personal_Finance / Gambling
By: Submissions
Canada may no longer be an official part of the United Kingdom (although the Canadians remain loyal to the Queen!), but there’s one thing that the two countries still have very much in common: the penchant for the slot machine, having a wee flutter on sports, and putting a cheeky fiver on red.
Both Canadians and Brits alike have gambling options aplenty and market revenues consistently hit new highs every single year. 2020 was a bit of an outlier for obvious reasons, yet the market has recovered incredibly well since in both countries.
Yet despite the obvious similarities, there are several key differences between how the gaming market operates. The following are the most significant; if you’re a gambler, it’ll pay to know them.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Firstly, crypto's are VERY HIGH RISK, the crypto bugs constantly talk about how manipulated fiat, stocks and precious metals are hence they seek their financial freedom in decentralised crypto currencies. However in my opinion crypto currencies are probably the most manipulated markets of the lot where huge amounts of coins reside in whale wallets that could be dumped onto the markets at any time. Then there are the inflation rates, crypto coin printing on an epic scale that would even make the Fed's Powell blush where comparatively low prices against all time highs can easily fool unsuspecting crypto investors into buying garbage with masked inflation rates in excess of over 100% that thus can not sustain bull runs to capitalise on until the inflation rates moderate to under 10%, such as that of Filecoin where given the plethora of pump content out there one is hard pressed to determine the true inflation rate that apparently is currently running at 160% against that of say Bitcoin's inflation rate of about 1.6%.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Day That Changed the World?
S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions.
Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs.
Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Even though the technicals have been predicting this for several months, people were still taken aback by gold’s fall — that’s why they are booing.
While the precious metals received a round of applause for their performances in October, I warned on several occasions that the celebration was premature. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks resuming their 2021 downtrends, investors’ cheers have turned into jeers in short order.
To explain, I warned previously that the GDX ETF could rally to or slightly above $35 (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12, moving one cent above it). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, I highlighted just how quickly the air often comes out of the balloon. For context, the blue vertical dashed lines below depict the sharp reversals that followed after the GDX ETF’s RSI approached or superseded 70.
Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave / Stock-Markets / Coronavirus 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.
NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data to support my conclusions.
Even though I’m not dismissing some external event, like a sudden US Fed move or some foreign market event, historically, the US markets enter a reasonably strong Christmas/Santa rally phase at this time every year. The increasing volatility usually starts to build in September/October – reaching a peak in October/November every year. December’s trends are traditionally much more muted and consolidated.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Crypto Market Analysis: What Trading Will Look Like in 2022 for Novice and Veteran Traders? / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Submissions
Cryptocurrency in all of its complexity and ambiguity has seen yet another successful year.
Following the several peaks the crypto market has undergone in 2021, with May presenting itself to be the most volatile out of all. Novice and veteran traders have gone to extreme lengths to cash in on the craze, as U.S. investors made more than $4 billion from Bitcoin (BTC) in 2020.
Crypto is looking more and more as the digital currency of tomorrow with more than 6,000 cryptocurrencies already accessible on the market. While many raise scepticism concerning the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the market size has surged on numerous occasions and we can expect an even more exciting year ahead.
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Monday, November 29, 2021
Best Stocks for Investing to Profit form the Metaverse and Get Rich / Companies / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Greetings from the red ticker green ticker stocks metaverse where my latest analysis is focused on how to the metaverse. What is the metaverse? Well VR such as in this video is part of the metaverse then there is augmented reality and then the virtual worlds such as Roblox and Decentraland. Metaverse is nothing new for it is a derivative of AI that I have previously referred to gaming and virtual reality.
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Monday, November 29, 2021
Should You Invest In Real Estate In 2021? / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Submissions
Investing in real estate has the capability to steadily generate income, and is a viable long-term investment option. Then again, investing in real estate is a serious undertaking, and you have to be doubly sure before coming to a decision. You can use a real estate investments API to discern whether the time is ripe for buying or selling.
In the US, the real estate sector saw a steep rise in sales even during the pandemic last year. So considering it a seller’s market, the main question is whether you should invest in real estate in 2021 or not.
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Sunday, November 28, 2021
Silver Long-term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Silver during the post pandemic gold rush managed to break above resistance at $21 that propelled the price 50% higher to just over $30 which the price is now correcting from, and silver being silver the trends tend to be deep and messy, hence why Silver has just about retraced the whole of the breakout move.
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Sunday, November 28, 2021
Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The silver miners’ stocks have surged higher recently, starting to mean revert out of deep capitulation lows. Those improving technicals have started thawing the bearish sentiment that plagued this tiny contrarian sector last summer. The silver stocks’ latest earnings season wrapping up in mid-November revealed how these miners are actually faring operationally and financially. Do fundamentals justify more gains?
The silver-stock world is really small, with primary silver miners deriving over half their revenues from producing the white metal increasingly-rare. Only a handful of exchange-traded funds track this forgotten sector, led by the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF. While also miniscule with just $1.2b in net assets in mid-November, SIL is the best-available sector benchmark. The silver stocks have had a wild ride this year.
Their price action closely mirrors gold stocks’, as silver’s dominant primary driver has always been gold. So SIL’s swings this year closely tracked those in the leading GDX gold-stock ETF like usual. Silver stocks were enjoying a solid young upleg last spring, with SIL surging 27.5% between late March to early June. But silver and thus silver stocks were sucked into gold’s sharp mid-June selloff on Fed-tightening fears.
Gold’s taper tantrum for the Fed starting to slow its epic quantitative-easing money printing unfolded in the months leading into that actual announcement. Between mid-June to late September, several bouts of heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling crushed the entire precious-metals complex. The resulting silver-stock carnage hammered SIL 30.2% lower climaxing in an ugly capitulation, fueling serious bearish psychology.
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Sunday, November 28, 2021
Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Submissions
It appears that the US markets didn’t find the Thanksgiving turkey very tasty this year.
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Sunday, November 28, 2021
Sheffield First Snow Winter 2021 - Snowballs and Snowmen Fun / Local / Sheffield
By: Eliza_Walayat
Winter has Arrived! At the real Winterfell, Sheffield with the first snow falling and it wasn't just a small spattering but heavy snowfall, enough for the kid to get out and about and make snowmen and have snowball fights.
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Saturday, November 27, 2021
Stock Market Investing LESSON - Buying Value / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
INVESTING LESSON - BUYING VALUE
Remember folks when investing one is not trying to buy the bottoms, one is trying to buy VALUE! There are many metrics for measuring value but for most investors the easiest way to measure value is the P/E Ratio, it is simple and easy to determine and virtually every investment site features the P/E ratios for stocks. Though from my experience many of the sites posted P/E ratios tend to out of date or inaccurate i.e. I calc virtually all of the PE ratios myself by dividing the share price by the earnings per share for the last 4 quarters and that is how one gets the P/E ratio i.e. how many YEARS it would take for the corporation to EARN it's share price.
Now there are many more metrics than that which can be just as important such as whether the corporation printing it's own shares Powell style, Brrrr, so shareholder dilution is another metric I watch among 15 that go towards generating the EC ratio, a quick way to see how expensive or cheap a stock is.
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