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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Clearly at times of market panic investors rush to Gold and then eventually once the dust settles soon realise in comparison Silver is cheap and thus plays catchup, usually swinging from cheap to expensive against Gold. So allowing for a delayed reaction there does exist a strong correlation between the Gold price and Silver. In terms of trend both Gold and Silver appear to be correcting their 2020 bull runs so should resolve upwards once the correction ends.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Silver Previous Trend Forecast Recap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My last in-depth Silver analysis:

29th Jan 2020 - Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020

Initially I am expecting a very volatile trading range between a low of $16.50 to a high of $19 for the next 3 months or so, following which the Silver price 'should' respond to a Gold price rally and follow the yellow metal higher. The trends not going to be pretty but I expect Silver to trade above $20, and likely reach a peak near $21 later in the year as the forecast graph illustrates.

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Economics

Sunday, November 14, 2021

US Economy in Economic Depression Since 2008 / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Nadeem_Walayat

You know the US GDP growth rate we are all bombarded with to illustrate the strength or weakness of the US economy, we'll it is just as FAKE as that which vomits out of the likes of the CCP.

The Fed states US real GDP is currently +12% year on year . Now consider this, what inflation measure do you think the Fed is using to calculate these GDP figures? CPI? WRONG! GDP price deflator which tends to consistently under estimate inflation even against CPI as the following graph illustrates.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Inflation to the Moon - Gold Wears a Space Suit! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up.

Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices.

On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0!
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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.

I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.

And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:

(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.

S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.

Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.

Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Gold Price Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very broad Pennant/Flag formation in Gold that has recently reached the APEX of the Flag setup.

This is very important for two reasons. First, as the global central banks begin to plan and prepare for more normalized monetary policy, and address credit excesses and inflationary price concerns, the advantages of Gold as a hedging instrument become more valuable. Secondarily, after a massive rise in asset prices and an even bigger global attempt to stimulate the economy after the COVID-19 virus event, the world has never been in this scenario. Near-zero interest rates, excessive amounts of money and credit throughout the world, asset prices showing near hyper-inflation trends, and the global central banks taking very little action to address any future economic concerns.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 14, 2021

US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

UK Inflation Soaring into the Stratosphere, Real rate Probably 20% Per Annum / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Forget the official UK inflation indices which are just as fake as those in the US and those that spew out of the CCP, a year ago I estimated the REAL rate of UK inflation was 16%, today I estimate it to be near 20%! But that is the average amidst that there will be huge variances with the price of many goods, materials and services more than doubling! Case in point being UK energy / natural gas prices which have doubled and are on their way to tripling as the pieces of turd energy companies FAILED to HEDGE prices as they crept higher during the summer months because they knew at the end of the day they could just walk away from their contracts with customers, shut up shop and reopen under a slightly different name with the same staff and premises, WHAT A SCAM!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Stock Market AI mega-trend Stocks Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in this video - the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Emerging Markets: How to Get a Grip on "Chaos of History" / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

Hi reader,

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is composed of 1,400 stocks from 27 nations. You'd think that the trillions of buy/sell decisions from across the region would result in a chaotic-looking chart.

But the opposite is true.

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Economics

Saturday, November 13, 2021

China Singles' Day - Toward Double 11 Record Sales, Despite Economic Uncertainties / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the world’s largest e-commerce market, China is likely to continue growing faster relative to North America and Western Europe. Singles’ Day 2021 will reflect that expansion.
Before the Singles Day, some observers thought that recent growth deceleration and continued regulatory scrutiny could dampen e-commerce in 2021. Yet, the full-year results may prove not that different from the past year.

On October 20, Alibaba and JD.com kicked promotions off already on October 20 since they are no longer restricted to a 24-hour time window. Last year, Alibaba’s Tmall reported sales of $78 billion in the first 10 days of November; 26 percent more than the previous year. This year, the Double 11 turnover is expected to increase solidly in absolute terms, even if the growth rate slows, due to last year’s high base.

In times of uncertainty, consumers are more cost-conscious. Due to broad discounts and promotions, that is expected to translate record sales during the Singles Day.

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InvestorEducation

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Tips For Investment Success / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest

By: Mark_Adan

We live in an information society - however, the information that we receive cannot always be relied upon. That information is supplied by the mass media and is often the product of pundits in cyberspace - that obviously might not be those who are the best sources of information. However - as a logical human being you may very well have more logical ideas. But - even given that insight there are some hints and tips that can provide guidelines that will improve the performance of your portfolio.

So here are some hints and tips from those who know a portfolio and how to make it provide them with an income in a time of high uncertainty.

There is a tremendous amount of information that is available to those who want to enter into the realm of cyberspace. The print media still has a gravitas that is not easy to match. Then there are friends and family - and they can be tremendously influential in shaping your thoughts. Given all these inputs, how do we find that path towards a personal investment that actually delivers,

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Personal_Finance

Saturday, November 13, 2021

How To Shop For The Right Good Online Video Editor / Personal_Finance / Money Supply

By: Submissions

Not all video editing tools can give you high-quality videos. Remember, there are hundreds of tools online. Some of these tools are out to take your money. Some of these tools come with poor features. Getting the best videos from these tools isn’t easy. Thus, it’s important to do your homework property when shopping around for the right editor. Here are key things you should look for in a good video editor.

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Politics

Friday, November 12, 2021

Window OPEN! Budgie GONE! PANIC Search for LOST Budgie! / Politics / Animals & Pets

By: N_Walayat

Where’s the Budgie! Where’s the Blue Budgie! Left the budgies in the room with the window open and can not find the blue budgie, it’s GONE out of the open WINDOW!

Panic search begins for the budgie in the garden, is it in a tree, is it on the ground, has it hopped over the fence into the neighbour’s garden – WHERE IS IT???? PANIC!

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Personal_Finance

Friday, November 12, 2021

FREE TRADE the Best Stocks and Shares ISA? / Personal_Finance / Learning to Invest

By: Nadeem_Walayat

There is a UK based fractional share ISA solution called FREE TRADE, that similar to Etorro offers a commission free fractional shares platform that has two crucial differences that makes it a far better INVESTING platform to Etorro's TRADING platform.

1. An ISA tax free wrapper at a cost of £3 per month along with their FREE general investing account (non ISA). Though there is a way to offset their monthly fees completely via their plus account by keeping £4k in cash on account that earns 3% / £120 per annum..

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 12, 2021

How Emerging Markets ETF Followed a Classic Elliott Wave Pattern / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

Here's what happened after the completion of a "bullish triangle"

A Charles Schwab survey shows that 15% of today's retail investors started investing in 2020.

And, regarding 2021, an August 2 CNBC headline said:

New investors are jumping into the market

So, when you combine the influx from this year and last, that adds up to a lot of new investors.

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Commodities

Friday, November 12, 2021

How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800!

The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision).
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Personal_Finance

Friday, November 12, 2021

FREE TRADE FREE SHARE - What Stock Will You Get? IBM? Apple? AMD? Nvidia? Microsoft? Maybe Intel? / Personal_Finance / Investing 2021

By: HGR

Open an account with FREE TRADE, fund it with just £1 and you get a FREE SHARE worth between £3 and £200! Woooaaah! Apple? AMD? IBM? Nvidia? Microsoft even? If not what about Intel?

Find out you could actually expect to get for your FREE SHARE for FREE TRADE!

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - China Crisis, Stagflation, Stocks Bubble, Reverse Repo... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 3 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season

Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!

Contents:

  • Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
  • Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
  • US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
  • US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
  • Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
  • Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Weakening Stock Market Breadth
  • Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
  • FANG Stocks
  • Margin Debt
  • Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Dow Annual Percent Change
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
  • Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Short-term Seasonal Trend
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
  • 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
  • Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
  • Investing fundamentals
  • IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
  • Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
  • CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
  • Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
  • Aukus Ruckus
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