Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Like the Latest Bond Flick, the US Dollar Has No Time to Die / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the dollar is on a tear, precious metal stocks have gotten away with it lately. But how long will their resistance last?
The USD Index (USDX)
After the USD Index’s negative response to the ECB’s monetary policy meeting on Oct. 28, I warned on Oct. 29 that dollar bears were unlikely to celebrate for much longer. I wrote:
Based on the rather random comment during the conference, the traders panicked and bought the EUR/USD, which triggered declines in the USD Index (after all, the EUR/USD is the largest component of the USDX).
Was the breakout to new 2021 lows invalidated? No. The true breakout was above the late-March highs (the August highs also served as a support level, but the March high is more important here) and it wasn’t invalidated.
What was the follow-up action? At the moment of writing these words, the USDX is up and trading at about 93.52, which is just 0.07 below the August high in terms of the closing prices. Consequently, it could easily be the case that the USD Index ends today’s session (and the week) back above this level.
Monday, November 22, 2021
Why BITCOIN NEW ALL TIME HIGH Changes EVERYTHING! / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Crypto Portfolio Current State
So far the crypto markets have managed to dodge the black swan bullets and so I hold ZERO of the two largest market cap crypto's, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Instead what had fallen to deep discounts have been the Alt coins, though again not to the extent where I would have piled in head first hoovering up huge amounts of crypto's as the current state of my crypto portfolio illustrates where even the crypto I have been banging on about all year Ravencoin is just scratching the surface at about 12% of my target holding, the table lists crypto's in order of my target $ position size.
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Monday, November 22, 2021
Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns / Commodities / Cannabis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, the Cannabis sector has shown signs of increased volume, volatility, and a reasonably strong potential for a price base. Volume started increasing near mid-September as the price of MJ fell below $15. This support level originated from late December 2020 after a significant rally trend from recent lows near $10 – when the Reddit retail trader event started to unfold.
I wrote about this sector and these opportunities in many articles before the incredible rally in late 2020 into 2021.
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Monday, November 22, 2021
The Most Important Lesson Learned from this COVID Pandemic / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
We must reduce government power to a bare minimum, or the next threat to our security will lead to an even greater loss of individual freedoms.
In life, we are constantly making trade-offs between life, liberty, and property. When we take our car out for a ride, we trade life for liberty: walking is safer than driving. When we take our car to work, we trade life for liberty and property. The minute we get out of bed, we make these trade-offs, and we do it so often that most times we don’t even realize we are making them: Indeed, our entire lives are a series of continuous trade-offs. However, for this pandemic, politicians decided they knew the best trade-off for everyone, and like sheep we should blindly accept these government edicts. They even tried to "infantilize" their populations (e.g. most COVID propaganda used child-like cartoons) to quash any dissent.
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Monday, November 22, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Annual Percent Change
The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!
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Monday, November 22, 2021
UK Covid-19 Booster Jabs Moderna, Pfizer Are They Worth the Risk of Side effects, Illness? / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: N_Walayat
Covid-19 cases are on the rise across Europe with many nations already imposing locks downs prompting civil unrest. So far Britain has escaped calls for a winter lockdown by implementing an across the board booster jab program that started with the over 50's but has now been rolled out to over 40's However, having the booster jab is NOT risk free!
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Saturday, November 20, 2021
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The first thesis is that when the dollar and yields are rising then stocks should be falling because it is seen as being deflationary, risk off. The actual correlation is basically 50/50, a coin flip. So a rising dollar and yields is a con flip for stock market weakness.
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Saturday, November 20, 2021
Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Powell maintains that inflation is transitory, but the monetary theory of inflation suggests otherwise. So, elevated inflation could stay with us!,Some economists downplay the risk stemming from elevated inflation, saying that comparisons to the 1970s style stagflation appear unfounded. They say that labor unions are weaker and economies are less dependent on energy than in the past, which makes inflationary risks less likely to materialize. Isabel Schnabel, Board Member of the European Central Bank, even compared the current inflationary spike to a sneeze, i.e., “the economy’s reaction to dust being kicked up in the wake of the pandemic and the ensuing recovery”. Are those analysts right?
Well, in a sense, they are. The economy is not in stagnation with little or no growth and a rising unemployment rate. On the contrary, the US labor market is continuously improving. It’s also true that both the bargaining power of workers and energy’s share in overall expenditure have diminished over the last fifty years.
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Saturday, November 20, 2021
How to Determine if It’s Time for You to Outsource Your Packaging Requirements to a Contract Packer / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
Many businesses enter into an agreement with a contract packing firm for two reasons: it's either they are not equipped with the right equipment and means for packing and distributing their products, or they have the means but don't have the workforce or skill to enhance and increase their production line. Whether you are thinking of scaling up and expanding in terms of your production output or don't have the necessary equipment, staffing, or resources, you will undoubtedly have to spend a lot if you were to purchase your machinery and equipment, hire staff, train them, and make sure your entire packing process is efficient and effective. But this is precisely where a contract packing service can be of tremendous help. If you aren’t sure about hiring the services of a contract packing partner, here’s how to determine if it’s time for you to outsource your packaging requirements to a contract packer.
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Saturday, November 20, 2021
2 easy ways to play Facebook’s Metaverse Spending Spree / Companies / Metaverse
By: Stephen_McBride
You probably heard the news by now…
Facebook (FB) is changing its name to Meta (MVRS) on December 1.
The shift comes after CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Facebook is now a “metaverse company.”
This shocked many folks, but not RiskHedge readers. I introduced you to the metaverse in February—and showed you why it will be the new internet.
Today, I’ll show you two surefire ways to profit from Facebook’s historic shift.
Friday, November 19, 2021
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators are starting to get cold feet and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or forced closures of their losing shorts due to failure to meet margin calls, probably more of the former than the latter.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: Zeal_LLC
The mid-tier and junior gold miners in their sector’s sweet spot for upside potential have been powering higher recently. They’ve blasted to several major breakouts after getting bombed out during gold-futures speculators’ taper tantrum on Fed-tightening fears last summer. These smaller gold miners just finished their Q3’21 earnings season, revealing whether their fundamentals support more big stock-price gains ahead.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by their production rates. Small juniors mine less than 300k ounces of gold annually, medium mid-tiers have outputs running from 300k to 1m, large majors yield over 1m, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2m. Mid-tiers offer a unique mix of sizable diversified gold production, considerable output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains.
Mid-tiers are much-less-risky than juniors, and amplify gold’s uplegs much more than majors. Ironically the leading mid-tier gold-stock benchmark is the misleadingly-named GDXJ Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF. It has evolved to be dominated by mid-tiers yielding quarterly outputs of 75k to 250k ounces. True juniors now only account for a smaller fraction of the weighting in this second-most-popular gold-stock ETF.
Just over a third the size of its big-brother GDX major-gold-miners ETF, GDXJ has certainly had a wild ride this year. Showing mid-tiers’ huge potential, GDXJ skyrocketed 188.9% in a massive upleg over just 4.8 months into early August 2020! The extreme greed and overboughtness that spawned necessitated a normal and healthy major correction to rebalance sentiment, so the mid-tiers fell 32.0% into late March 2021.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Protect Your Wealth From PERMANENT Transitory Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In this analysis I explain why 'Transitory' Inflation is about to become permanent and some pointers of what one should do to protect ones wealth from the stealth inflation theft of purchasing power. This analysis formed part of my in-depth housing market analysis in progress which has mushroomed beyond my original planned trend forecast for UK house prices which now encompasses an analysis of the state of play of most of world!. So in the interests's of timeliness my stocks analysis is being posted separately ahead of my housing market analysis as will be the case for future analysis form now on.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Inflation expectations reached a record high. Is gold preparing a counterattack to punish gold bears?In a classic Monty Python sketch, nobody expects the Spanish inquisition. In the current marketplace, everyone expects high inflation. As the chart below shows, the inflation expectations embedded in US Treasury yields have recently risen to the highest level since the series began in 2003.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? / Stock-Markets / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets pulled back a bit this week as the U.S. dollar strengthened versus foreign currencies.
In other markets, the rising dollar index put downward pressure on crude oil and gasoline futures this week. Consumers who have been experiencing pain at the pump should get a bit of a reprieve in the days ahead.
But it could be short lived. The same government policies that helped drive gas prices higher this year are still in place: Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus coupled with disincentives for domestic energy production.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Some indicators are making records"
It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.
For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.
Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.
Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Chinese People do NOT Eat Dogs Newspeak / Politics / China
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Chinese people do NOT eat DOGS as part of pseudo religious superstition to ward off Summer heat and the practice is NOT widespread, because eating ones pet looks very bad to outside eyes therefore the CCP dictates Newspeak that Chinese people do NOT eat dogs even though there is annual an annual dog eating festival and Dog meat shops are widespread across China situated in every city and town.
Therefore that is the GOOD FACT that is spewed out from docile chinese mouth pieces across the media from mainstream to youtube to tiktok a case of "Don't be stupid, Chinese people DO NOT EAT DOGS!" When the reality to this Newspeak fiction is that Chinese people actually DO EAT DOGS! But the nature of the crime against Dogs i.e. the manner of their deaths is such that it basically just does NOT happen!
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
CHINOBLE! Evergrande Reality Exposes China Fiction! / Politics / Nuclear Power
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest cunning plan out of the China Clown Party (CCP) was to ORDER Evergrande to NOT default on it's bonds, finish the properties yet to be completed for customers, and make good on all those who invested in their wealth management programmes! Problem Solved! Just order the dying company to basically NOT Die. The Fed had the 2008 bailout all wrong, they should have just ordered the banks not to go Bust! It looks like Xi Ping has been drinking too much of his I am an immortal genius cool aid!
This speaks volumes about the lack of competency at the heart of the Chinese government (CCP). I strongly suspect a day of reckoning is fast approaching for China with it's ghost cities, crumbling infrastructure, collapsing bridges and buildings and dams that's are prone to bursting that are not even 30 years old!
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018:
- Bonds were trading lower
- Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows
- Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates started to rise a bit
- and the Stock market rallied to new all-time highs
All of these are components of a late Spring or early Summer type of Kondratieff Season.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.
COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends
Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.
Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.
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