Friday, June 17, 2016

How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We have debunked the myth that gold-to-silver ratio should revert to its “true” level around 16. The predominant range for the ratio in modern times is rather well between 40 and 80. Moreover, the notion that the gold-to-silver ratio should revert to some historical average makes no sense. The relative valuation between these two precious metals depends on market forces, like the health of the world economy and monetary demand for both metals, or industrial demand for silver. Such factors change over time. For example, gold has nowadays much higher monetary demand compared to silver than in the past, which largely explains why the average ratio in the 21st century was on average higher than earlier.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Tanashian

Recently I have gotten wordy about the decline in ‘inflation expectations’ beginning on June 2, right on through yesterday’s update of the TIP-TLT ratio and TLT in essence, attaining their targets.  The implication would be that the mini deflation whiff is coming to its limits.

As often happens at potential limit points, the market’s crosscurrents are strong.  As noted yesterday, USD, gold, silver and the gold miners all did in-day reversals as items that had been risk ‘off’ got hammered.  ‘What, USD and gold in lockstep?  What is the meaning of this?!?’ think inflationists. See yesterday’s in-day post Strange Bedfellows.

The meaning is that these items, along with the VIX and US Treasury bonds have been plays for a risk ‘off’ market as it got the jitters over deflation.  Gold miners had been, however fleetingly, rising in line with their counter-cyclical fundamentals and this is the mirror image to the reasons why I so often parrot that if you are a gold miner bull, realize that fundamentally at least, the sector is done no favors in an inflationary backdrop (price, for long stretches of time, can be something else all together).

Friday, June 17, 2016

Overnight Markets Struggling to Stay Flat / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is struggling to stay near yesterday’s closing price for the close of index options at the open this morning. Today is Quadruple Witching day, which has the probability of being very volatile.

ZeroHedge writes, “Traders are still stunned by the dramatic move in risk assets during yesterday's US session. As a reminder, at the lows for the day in the mid-morning Eastern Time, we saw the DAX at -1.81%, FTSE -1.13%, S&P500 -1.03%, US 10y yield 1.516% (lowest since August 2012) and GBPUSD 1.401. By the various closes these rallied to -0.59%, -0.27%, +0.31%, 1.580% and 1.420 respectively!

Friday, June 17, 2016

Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

The gold price surged to their highest level in nearly two years yesterday on BREXIT concerns and deepening concerns that central banks are slowly losing control of the financial and monetary system.

Gold subsequently fell quite sharply below the key $1,300 level but remains roughly 1% higher for the week in all currencies and is on track for its third week of gains.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Former Central Banker Admits World Economy Remains in Recession and Depressed / Economics / Global Economy

By: Mario_Innecco

hi Friday June 17 2016 here home of alternative economics and contrarian views today I'd like to talk
about the honest former central banker and that is
mervyn king who was the governor of the Bank of England which is the equivalent
of what Janet Yellen is chairman of the Federal Reserve he was governor from
2003 2 2013 for 10 years so II he was around during the great financial crisis
and after it and before he was chief economist of the Bank of England before
that and deputy governor so is a man with experience
I know a lot of my viewers and myself do not believe in the institution of
central banking because it's basically a monopoly that and also it's a
bureaucracy that controls you know the price of money which should really be
controlled by the market but I he has written a book and the book is called
the end of alchemy money banking and the future of the global economy so

Friday, June 17, 2016

Walkers Crisps Spell and Go WIN! - K,C or D Holiday After 225 Codes / Letters? / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps

By: Anika_Walayat

It's a big day today because we have actually finally won something 55 days into the Walker’s Crisps 'Spell and Go' promotion, now having entered over 225 codes for over 225 letters. So we have lots and lots of letters, see what we have won! Is it one of those special ultra rare holiday winning letters K, C or D, or something else? Find out in our latest video in this series so that you too can fully understand what the actual real world chances are winning!

Friday, June 17, 2016

Stock Market Thinking Upside Down; Dow 18k Still Key / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Doug_Wakefield

Do you remember the ‘70s, and the all-star disaster films like the Towering Inferno and the Poseidon Adventure? As interest rates and gas prices soared, we “escaped” to the theatre to watch these big disaster films. 

You will remember in the Poseidon Adventure that a luxury liner traveling from New York to Athens is broadside by a huge rogue wave set off by an underwater earthquake. The entire ship is turned upside down.  Reverend Scott (Gene Hackman) surmises that the solution is to be found by climbing upwards to the stern, where the ship’s propellers are now the highest point on the ship. Robin (Eric Shea) is a young man interested in ships and tells Scott that the hull is only 1 inch thick near the propeller shaft.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Flash Crash - Stock Market May See a Large Move Overnight / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It now appears that the 50-day Moving Average at 2077.32 is the probable target for this afternoon’s bounce. By 4:00 pm, this entire cycle from 2120.55 to today’s top will have taken 43 hours.

It’s time to prepare for a flash crash.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stock Market Second Leg of the Retracement On Its Way / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX may finish the second leg (Wave [c]) of its retracement at 2085.00 by the end of the day. The target is precisely where [c] equals [a]. This is a very orderly pattern, for once!

If you have gone to cash this morning, you may wish to go short by the end of the day.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stock Market, Iron Ore, Bitcoin – Is Silver Next for Chinese Momentum Investors? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: John_Lee

The roulette game all started in the fall of 2014, about 2 years after Chairman Xi Jinping came to power and became the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China.

Xi Jinping had campaigned for socialist economic reform, including a sweeping anti-corruption drive, cutting excess production capacity, tightening of housing credit, and clamping down on gaming in Macau. Public feedback was initially positive. However, largely as a result of those policies, Beijing was facing an increasingly grim economic growth outlook which was the worst in more than two decades*.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Why People are Migrating to the UK, Illegal Immigration, Housing Crisis Consequences / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Contrary to press stories of civil wars, most of the migration (90%) into the UK has been purely economic that includes to study, many of whom turn out to be bogus students who instead are here to work illegally and for permanent settlement.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Stocks Fluctuate Following Recent Decline - Bottom Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Down? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,120, and profit target at 2,000, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish, as the S&P 500 index extends its lower highs, lower lows sequence:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Thursday, June 16, 2016

The US Consumer-Driven Economy Has Hit a Brick Wall / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Tony Sagami writes: Get a load of this headline from a German newspaper, which translates into “Extreme Low Interest: Who Saves Is the Fool.”

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Bitcoin Price Going Parabolic Again, Now At $730 and Up 60%+ In Last Three Weeks / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

Bitcoin has soared more than 60% in the last three weeks, from $450 to above $700 in a parabolic move.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

How Will a Brexit Vote Impact Gold and Silver Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jason_Hamlin

The June 23 referendum on whether or not the UK should leave the EU is fast approaching. New polls show that those favoring a leave vote or “Brexit” are leading by 10 to 20 points.This has sent ripples through the markets, as a Brexit is likely to cause economic chaos in the EU, cripple European banks and lead to a Recession.

It is not that voters in the United Kingdom want nothing to do with the EU. Instead, they prefer a mutually-beneficial economic relationship, rather than an economic and political arrangement with the Europenan Union:

Thursday, June 16, 2016

FED Leaves US Interest Rates Unchanged, Gold and Silver Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jason_Hamlin

Gold and silver both erased morning declines and pushed higher today after FED chair Janet Yellen announced they would leave interest rates unchanged. Policy makers gave a mixed picture of the U.S. economy, citing growth in some sectors but slowing job gains. While the median forecast of 17 policy makers remained at two quarter-point hikes this year, the number of officials who see just one move rose to six from one in the previous forecasting round in March. The market now sees less than a 50 percent chance of even one rise by year-end. I also expect a maximum of one rate hike this year from the Fed Chair Who Keeps Yellen’ Wolf.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

China's Hard Landing Has Already Begun! / Economics / China Economy

By: Gordon_T_Long

The Financial Repression Authority is joined by Richard Duncan, an esteemed author, economist, consultant and speaker. FRA Co-founder, Gordon T. Long discusses with Mr. Duncan about the current Chinese situation and the ramifications being imposed on the global economy.

Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the current global economic disaster with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. His second book was The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to rebalance the global economy and restore sustainable growth. It was published by CLSA Books in December 2009. His latest book is The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012).

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Fed Does Nothing As Expected.... Stock Market Nowhere As Always....Brexit on Deck... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The market, for the most part, has been trading down lately due to the uncertainty the Euro zone is facing once next Thursday comes and goes. That's when we find out if Britain stays or goes out of the Euro zone. Fear of them leaving has the market mostly on the down side with the banks the most vulnerable and overall taking the hardest hits lower. They rebounded from very oversold today but they have the most risk ahead of and after the vote. If the vote is to stay they should have quite a rebound higher, but again, the unknown is having a very short-term adverse-affect for them, and, thus, the market overall. The banks are also vulnerable because, as we saw today, Fed Yellen is once again in no rush to raise rates, even though they badly need to do so. If rates stay down, and Brexit is a negative, the banks are in big trouble. Yellen is totally dependent on future Jobs Reports, with regards to deciding when to raise rates one more time for 2016.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil lost 1.36% as rising uncertainty around Brexit weighed on investors' sentiment (leaving the European Union by Britain could trigger a recession and slow demand for crude in Europe). In these circumstances, light crude declined under the short-term support line and approached the Jun lows. Will we see lower prices in the coming days?

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

The Rush to Gold: A New Respect Is Growing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

You didn't come here today for bad news. There's plenty of that everywhere you look, and even where you don't look.

So here's the good news. A new rush to gold has begun. To see where we're headed, let's first see where we've been.

Gold and silver owners in the first ten years of this new century were in for quite a ride, watching gold soar to $1,895 and silver to $49 by 2011. Even those who jumped in midway saw their paper money values zoom.