BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Latest opinion polls taken today (22nd of June) both put LEAVE marginally ahead of REMAIN, TNS (online) 43% LEAVE against 41% for REMAIN and Opinium (online) 45% LEAVE against 44% for REMAIN. Which illustrates that whilst leave as the advantage nevertheless given the margin of error then both camps are virtually neck and neck, literally balanced on a knife edge going into voting day that compares against the dramatic shifts in the poll leads of the past 10 days.

Whilst the opinion polls momentum chart clearly shows a trend since Mid May of LEAVE gaining ground against REMAIN which by the start of June had both virtually neck and neck into the 13th of June when LEAVE started to pull strongly away from REMAIN, right up until last Thursdays horrific event that literally resulted in momentum being put into reverse gear for LEAVE that led to REMAIN taking a marginal polls lead that appears to have evaporated in the final day of campaigning to give LEAVE a marginal lead going into polling day.

So it is no wonder that most political pundits are sat on the fence, calling the referendum as being too close to call as now both sides are virtually neck and beck with marginal advantage to LEAVE with only hours until the polls open, though with the momentum in LEAVE's favour which means that LEAVE should continue to improve as people go to the polls.

Against this my forecast conclusion of BEFORE last Thursdays event, on the basis of the sum of year long analysis including over 120 articles and over a dozen videos concluded that the most probable outcome was likely to be LEAVE winning on 51.3% against REMAIN on 48.7%. Which both today's opinion polls AND momentum are appearing to confirm and hence implies that LEAVE / BrExit really does look set to win the tomorrows EU Referendum vote.

EU Referendum Forecast - 12th June 16

UK 2016 EU Referendum Forecast

The average of the last 6 polls has REMAIN in the lead on 51% against LEAVE on 49% (11th June). However the REMAIN lead is set against the big picture of momentum being on the side of LEAVE that appears to be ACCELERATING. For instance 3 weeks ago REMAIN were ahead on 54% to 46%, which was typical of the REMAINs lead since the start of 2016 that entered the new year on 56% against 44%.

However, if as I expect that the LEAVE campaign momentum can be maintained for the remaining 11 days then LEAVE should be able to just achieve a tight referendum victory. Therefore the sum of my year long analysis comprising well over 120 articles and over a dozen videos then my forecast conclusion is for a LEAVE victory of 51.3% to 48.7%, a winning margin of less than 2.7%.

But to achieve this victory all Brexiters need to further intensify their efforts because as things stand today (12th June) REMAIN is probably just marginally ahead with less than 1% between REMAIN and LEAVE on an estimated 50.4% REMAIN against 49.6% LEAVE, so there is still a lot of hard work to be done in these last few days do achieve a LEAVE Brexit outcome.

For why BrExit is best for Britain AND Europe then see my most recent in-depth analysis on the disastrous consequences of climate change on the world and europe that coupled with continuing population growth looks set to trigger annual climate change refugee migrations several orders of magnitude greater than today's refugee crisis - 22 Jun 2016 - BrExit to Save Europe from Climate Change Refugee Migration Apocalypse

Also watch the following recent video's (click to watch) :

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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