Saturday, June 01, 2019

UK House Building 20 Years Shortfall / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Tory government has once more pledged to build 300,000 homes per year to address Britain's chronic housing crisis which is set against the current pace of construction of about 200,000 homes per year. However, every government of the past 20 years has made similar promises to increase house building to targets of anywhere between 250,000 to 400,000 homes per year and ALL have FAILED to deliver! Every house building manifesto promise BROKEN! That's by Labour, Coalition, Tories, and our current DUP/Remain barely able to open a tin of beans government. So the first message is to take government house building targets with a giant pinch of salt!

Saturday, June 01, 2019

Finding Record Investor Profits Hidden In The Fed Minutes / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Dan_Amerman

Sifting through the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to look for signals of changes in policy is a fixation for the financial media and the investment industry. Because both the stock and bond markets can reverse directions based upon the Fed's intentions for the direction of Fed Funds rates, there is an intense focus on finding signals for those intentions and whether the signals are changing.

However, like generals preparing for the last war - there is a strong case to be made that most analysis of the FOMC minutes is focusing on the details, while missing the big picture for the next recession (which could be growing more imminent).

As explored herein, the Fed itself is as much focused on how to change the "SOMA" to enable the strongest form of "MEP" in the event of another recession, as it is on Fed Funds rates.

When we get past the jargon, what the Fed is debating in plain sight are the specifics for how to give as much money as possible to some investors in the event of another recession, in the shortest time possible.

Saturday, June 01, 2019

US Bond Market You Have to Invite the Vampire Into Your House / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus in the USA and its Central Bank.

You see, the Federal Reserve inflates money supplies as a matter of doing business, which is why I noted so strenuously in Q4 2018 that Jerome Powell’s then-hawkish stance in the face of a declining stock market made perfect sense… because the 30 year Treasury bond was not bullish; it was bearish and getting more so under the pressure of rising inflation expectations.

Saturday, June 01, 2019

Fethiye Tuesday Market Turkey 2019 - All You Need to Know Before You Go! / Personal_Finance / Holidays

By: Anika_Walayat

If your going to be holidaying in Turkey this year and are anywhere near the Dalaman / Fethiye area then you MUST visit the Fethiye Tuesday market! It is huge! Vibrant, bustling with variety, Turkish culture in action with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge. It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see a side of the world that you don't usually see, full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.

The market sells virtually everything under the sun, food, fruit, sweets, electronics, bags, all sorts of bags, trinkets, shoes, jewellery and clothes, tons of clothes, from the mainstay for tourists t-shirt's tons and tons of t-shirts to the local traditional garments and the wide variety of tourist souvenirs such as fridge magnets that can be picked up dirt cheap if you know where to look as we show in our latest video on shopping in Fethiye market.

Saturday, June 01, 2019

Told You So: The Bearish Momentum in Crude Oil Accelerates / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Oil price is melting down like there’s no tomorrow. How else could we describe the bloodbath? Fresh monthly lows being hit on a daily basis. Slicing through important supports. With such a weak close to the trading week, how will black gold fare the next one? Clearly, the most recent Mexico tariff announcement hasn’t helped and it’s widely felt in the markets, including this one. Better news on the horizon?

Friday, May 31, 2019

Smart Gold Investors Ask: Crisis or Zombification? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Many people worry about the replay of the last economic crisis. But what if we look not in the direction from which the threat will come? What if we fight the last war? We invite you to read our today’s article about the possibility that the endgame will not to be a 2008-style financial crisis, but a slow, painful and unstoppable zombification of the global economy. And find out how it would affect the gold market.

We know that there is still a lot of time to Halloween. But please come with us to the cemetery to meet some zombie friends – who knows, maybe we will learn something about the economy and the gold market from them?

The current expansion is probably the most hated period of prosperity. Since the very end of the Great Recession, the pundits have been worried about the next economic crisis. We were told that the recession was just around the corner (the sellers of precious metals often aroused such fears). We have been hearing it for ten years.

Friday, May 31, 2019

These Three Stocks Love Low Interest Rates / Companies / Investing 2019

By: Robert_Ross

Looks like the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon.

Sure, the Fed announced it was leaving interest rates put last week. But I think the Fed will take this one step further and cut rates in the near future.

The Fed lowers interest rates when it thinks the economy is weak. This makes it cheaper for businesses to borrow money and employ more people.

And we’re already seeing signs of a slowing economy.

When the economy slips into a recession, which I expect to happen in the next year or so, the Federal Reserve will no doubt lower interest rates—just like it’s done after every recession since 1950.

Friday, May 31, 2019

Silver SIL Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have been pummeled in recent months, plunging near major secular lows in late May.  Sentiment in this tiny sector is miserable, reflecting silver prices continuing to languish relative to gold.  This has forced traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold, which has far-superior economics.  The major silver miners’ ongoing shift from silver is apparent in their recently-released Q1’19 results.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

The definitive list of major silver-mining stocks to analyze comes from the world’s most-popular silver-stock investment vehicle, the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF.  Launched way back in April 2010, it has maintained a big first-mover advantage.  SIL’s net assets were running $294m in mid-May near the end of Q1’s earnings season, 5.6x greater than its next-biggest competitor’s.  SIL is the leading silver-stock benchmark.

Friday, May 31, 2019

The Bankers’ “Power Revolution”: How the Government Got Shackled by Debt / Politics / Banksters

By: Ellen_Brown

This article is excerpted from my new book Banking on the People: Democratizing Money in the Digital Age, available in paperback June 1.

The U.S. federal debt has more than doubled since the 2008 financial crisis, shooting up from $9.4 trillion in mid-2008 to over $22 trillion in April 2019. The debt is never paid off. The government just keeps paying the interest on it, and interest rates are rising.

In 2018, the Fed announced plans to raise rates by 2020 to “normal” levels — a fed funds target of 3.375 percent — and to sell about $1.5 trillion in federal securities at the rate of $50 billion monthly, further growing the mountain of federal debt on the market. When the Fed holds government securities, it returns the interest to the government after deducting its costs; but the private buyers of these securities will be pocketing the interest, adding to the taxpayers’ bill.

Friday, May 31, 2019

How to Properly Utilize Makeup Business Cards / Companies / SME

By: Submissions

While the modern world acts as if online ads and social media are the only way to reach clients, the reality is that tried and true classic methods like handing out business cards and flyers still work. This is especially true in one-on-one marketing. This is why makeup business cards are essential to those in the fashion and beauty industry, whether you sell these items or provide services in this area. The question then is how to properly utilize your business cards to grow your business.

Friday, May 31, 2019

The Stocks Bull Market is Over… Now Comes the Bloodbath / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are a sea of red this morning…

I’ve been warning for weeks that a collapse was coming… and now it is here.

The markets have finally woken up to the fact that the US and China will NOT be reaching a trade deal… and that the global economy is contracting.

Stocks have taken out critical support (red line). The next stop will be in the lower 2,700s (blue line).

Friday, May 31, 2019

US House Prices Momentum Analysis / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US housing market since early 2015 had been trundling along nicely on a momentum of between 4% and 6% per annum. However as of the most recent data that trading pattern has been breached with momentum falling to +3.2% as a consequence of outright falls in US house prices over the past 3 months. Therefore given the trend trajectory it is highly probable that US house prices are now trending towards 0% house price inflation and may even briefly go negative, which I am sure will send alarm bells ringing at the Fed, as it would fear that its banking brethren are about to feel some pain, and we all know what happens when the banks start to feel pain!

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 - Current State / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold Price began 2019 with a continuation of it's strong December 2018 rally towards resistance at $1300 that was soon overcome propelling the Gold price higher to next resistance at $1350 by Mid February. Since when entered into a shallow downtrend all the way to the recent low of $1269. Which is particularly disappointing given that many Gold bugs had pinned hopes on safe haven demand in the aftermath of Trump trade war chaos tumbling stock markets since the start of May, not to mention a aircraft carrier group steaming towards the Persian Gulf, none of which is being reflected in the Gold price to date.

Thursday, May 30, 2019

This Is Why US Monetary Policy Is So Ineffective / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, many people thought excessive government spending and the resulting debt would bring inflation or even hyperinflation.

We wanted a hawkish Federal Reserve or, better yet, a gold standard to prevent it. Reality turned out differently.

Federal debt rose steadily, inflation didn’t. Here’s a chart of the on-budget public debt since 1970:

Thursday, May 30, 2019

When (Not If) Silver Has a "Bitcoin Moment" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

In mid-May 2019 the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), was trading around $5,600. At $4,000, a prominent technician predicted it was gearing up for a run to $6,500. Yet when it reached $5,700, he recommended selling because of a technical "non-confirmation."

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Gold, Silver, Oil, Cryptos - Audio Analysis / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY: First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.

Thursday, May 30, 2019

The Single Most Powerful Insight that Will Help You Find the Next Amazon, Google, or Netflix / Companies / Investing 2019

By: Stephen_McBride

If you haven’t read me before, let me briefly introduce myself to give you a little context.

I’m Stephen McBride, Chief Analyst at RiskHedge. My job is to find under-the-radar disruptor stocks that are set to dominate the world in the next 10 years… and make investors rich in the process.

Think of buying Amazon a decade ago…

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Are We Looking at a Dead Cat Bounce in Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Oil bulls look to have arrested the slide as there hasn’t been a down day since Thursday. One could easily expect a more vigorous rebound, however. The nearby resistances remain and black gold has hardly gone anywhere today so far. After the long weekend, will the bulls muster more strength, or does the technical picture favor another trip south in the coming days? The answer isn’t as easy as might be inferred from the Alert’s title...

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Extended Gold Mega Base Could Prompt An Incredible Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Here we go again..  We’ve been nailing the Precious Metals moves for many months and we’ve heard from many of our followers and members about our research.  Some of you might remember our November 24, 2018 prediction that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall and set up a “Momentum Base pattern near April 21~24, 2019″ .  We find it incredible that we can make a prediction about Gold nearly 6+ months ahead of the move using our proprietary predictive modeling tools and then sit back and wait for it to happen just as we predicted.

On March 28, 2019, we posted this research article regarding the “Final Buying Opportunity for Gold”.  Our researchers believe this current double-bottom setup is the last time you’ll see Gold prices below $1300 for quite some time in the future.  Again, we were warning our followers that the opportunity to position their gold trades was setting up and this low price setup may be the last time we see Gold near these lows.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

US is Winning Trade War with China...for Now / Economics / China US Conflict

By: Richard_Mills

The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as trade negotiators from either side parry over automobile parts content, intellectual property rights, government subsidies and the like.

Casualties and victories are also borne out over the decks of hulking freighters that carry the commodities which make up the nuts and bolts of international trade.

Indeed, shipping statistics are often sought by economics and traders trying to predict the health of a country’s economy or the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one such leading indicator. Another is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMIs are a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. An economy with a PMI of over 50 is considered to be growing; under 50 means an economy is treading water or possibly drowning.

This article is concerned with the Baltic Dry Index and other shipping statistics - such as cargo volumes through West Coast ports - that we can use to determine who, at this stage, China or the US, is winning the trade war.

The overall conclusion we, at Ahead of the Herd, came up with, is that the United States is winning, in terms of raw economic data, but at a cost to both economies of roughly $165 billion in two-way trade. The losers also include US consumers who are paying more for imported goods, and companies in both countries that can’t afford 25% tariffs for an extended period of time.