Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24
How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - 17th Feb 24
Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation - 17th Feb 24
Intensive 6 Week Stock Market Elliott Wave Training Course - 17th Feb 24
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend - 17th Feb 24
GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned - 17th Feb 24
Nick Millican Explains Real Estate Investment in a Changing World - 17th Feb 24
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 7th Feb 24
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now - 7th Feb 24
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense - 7th Feb 24
Gold Price Long-Term Outlook Could Not Look Better - 7th Feb 24
Stock Market QE4EVER - 7th Feb 24
Learn How to Accumulate and Distribute (Trim) Stock Positions to Maximise Profits - Investing 101 - 5th Feb 24
US Exponential Budget Deficit - 5th Feb 24
Gold Tipping Points That Investors Shouldn’t Miss - 5th Feb 24
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing - 5th Feb 24
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month - 4th Feb 24
Gold Price’s Rally is Normal, but Is It Really Bullish? - 4th Feb 24
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke - 4th Feb 24
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil - 4th Feb 24
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates - 4th Feb 24
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE - 31st Jan 24
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher - 31st Jan 24
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling - 31st Jan 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review - 31st Jan 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, February 17, 2024

Why Rising Shipping Costs Won't Cause Inflation / Economics / Global Economy

By: MoneyMetals

Defining inflation as "rising prices" creates all kinds of confusion.

As I explained in-depth, historically, inflation meant an increase in the amount of money and credit in the economy, or more succinctly, an expansion in the money supply. Rising consumer prices - price inflation - is one symptom of this monetary inflation. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, January 19, 2024

Toward China's Soft Economic Rebound / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

Last year, international observers charged China for global inflation, deflation and economic collapse. In reality, Chinese economy is inching toward a soft rebound, despite the dire global landscape.
As global business and political leaders swarmed to Davos for the World Economic Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang took the podium. Chinese economy has rebounded and moved upward, Li noted, and was estimated to have grown around 5.2% in 2023. That’s slightly better than the official target of around 5%.
No matter how the world’s situation changes, Li added. China will adhere to its fundamental national policy of opening up, and its door will only get wider and wider.” he said.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, November 04, 2023

A Recession is Brewing / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A reminder that a recession is brewing as illustrated by the US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions analysis (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, November 03, 2023

FED Loads of Money! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

S&P Measuring Move

Rally from 4333 to 4540 is 207 points, 4333 - 207 points = 4126. Not a forecast rather another piece of the puzzle eyeballing sub 4200, and my long standing objective of 4150 as being probable.

So stock market eyes sub 4200, and eying achieving 4150 with possibility of overshoot to just under 4100 over the next 4 to 6 weeks. Therefore the market is primed to snap back inline with my trend forecast by means of taking a significant tumble over the coming weeks where we can all look for catalysts for but the forecast remains blind to all that has transpired since it was posted 10 months ago!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, September 22, 2023

The Full Employment Lie / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Today's narrative is that the Fed needs to force unemployment higher to cause demand destruction to bring inflation under control. Only one problem is that just as CPI is a FAKE inflation measure so is the Unemployment rate. They have fiddled the stats to such an extent that today's 3.6% unemployment is more like 10% for your grandfathers unemployment as shadow stats once more illustrates, Just look at the spread between REAL unemployment and fake UNEMPLIE 25% vs 3.6%! Seriously they are taking the piss, treating the masses like idiots! Unfortunately the Econofools perpetuate this LIE across MSM, so there you have it US unemployment rate is a lot closer to 25% than 3.65%

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, September 07, 2023

Why US Annual Budget Deficits Are Getting Worse / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pandemic a once in a 100 year event sparked rampant deficit spending to bailout the economy, that was 2020, whilst 2021 was nearly as bad! And 2022 did show an improvement by reverting back to pre-pandemic deficit era extremes. However the 2023 deficit is once more ramping up and running at twice the pre-pandemic extreme rate.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, September 06, 2023

US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As my analysis of Jan 2023 pointed out (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Monday, September 04, 2023

Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Apparently the yield curve inversion has a 100% hit rate, whenever a yield curve inverts it has always resulted in a recession.

Only problem is that it can take anywhere from 6 months to 3 years for the recession to materialise! Thus is another one of those nothing burgers that most analysts obsess over. For instance take the current inversion as of March 2022, those who swallowed the recession is coming mantra have been sat in money market accounts for the last 9 months whilst stocks such as META first doubled, then tripled and look set to quadruple, what kind of *****-A-Doodle-Doo indicator is the yield curve inversion? Which is why I don't tend to pay it much attention, given that it is pretty much useless in terms of investing.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, September 02, 2023

CPI Smoke and Mirrors Hides Decade Long REAL Inflation PAIN! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

INFLATION

Firstly understand that inflation is by DESIGN, the last thing your masters want is for the slaves to stop working so one of the primary mechanisms used to keep the slaves working is inflation because it destroys the purchasing power of earnings and savings so that most folks are kept running on the work hamster wheel into their graves where their lifetime of savings have been eroded away by INFLATION, or stolen by the banking crime syndicate, financial con men and through a myriad of modern day scam artists, run a mile from fund managers! They are all scam artists! If you think UK and US inflation is high take a look at the poor souls in Turkey (where I will soon be taking a trip, Istanbul), 58% inflation against which the depositors are thrown scraps of a 15% TAXED interest! Yes that's right, you get TAXED on the interest that FAILS to keep pace with inflation! Same in the UK, fake inflation of 7.2%, savings rates typically of 4.5% to 5.5% and the lemmings appear on broadcast news happy that they are in receipt of a sub inflation pittance, this after TEN YEARS of STEALTH theft of the purchasing power of their savings! At least the risky stock market gives ordinary folks a good chance to avoid the stealth theft, money in the bank is guaranteed to be systematically STOLEN! Yes we can play the fixed rate game which can temporarily work, but money in the bank in the UK over 10 years will lose between 1/5th and 1/3rd of it's value!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, August 19, 2023

Talking Heads Predict No Recession While Shrinkflation Clips Consumers / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets are extending their losing streak as the U.S. dollar pushes higher. The Dollar Index rose for a fifth straight week through Thursday's close.
Although the downward momentum in metals markets has been fairly steady for over a month, the total amount of price retracement has been modest. Volatility in gold and silver markets has actually been coming down.

When volatility gets compressed, that tends to precede a big move – often in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend, which has been down.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, July 09, 2023

Uk Inflation in 2023: The Current Situation / Economics / Inflation

By: Umer_Mahmood

The April index falls less than expected to 8.7%. And the core figure has been at its best since 1992. After the IMF's good estimates on the economy, markets see a hawkish BoE

Difficult day for the stock markets of the  Continent, which has been affected by a long series of bad news. Starting with the cold shower that came from British inflation, to which are added the fears of the failed agreement on the US debt ceiling and those about the damage that the Chinese economy could suffer from the new wave of Covid together with the ban on Micron chips. But, if on the impasse in Washington there is the belief that an agreement will arrive before 'date X', the race in prices in the United Kingdom gives us a glimpse of a dark future on the interest rate front.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, June 20, 2023

How Germany's Economy is Turning Ugly / Economics / China Economy

By: EWI

This economic gauge "dipped back below zero in less than a year"

In November 2020, when fears were rampant over a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the president of the European Central Bank called for economic stimulus (Reuters):

Facing gloomy outlook, Lagarde calls for unlocking EU aid

In December of 2020, what is known as the Next Generation EU package became operational. This economic aid was massive, amounting to more than €2 trillion at current prices.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, April 01, 2023

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The primary driver for stock prices is Not Innovation, Disruption or even GDP growth (though it is part of the soup), No the Primary driver for stock prices is INFLATION! It's why Turkish stocks (before this weeks killer Quake) were racing ahead despite persistently high Turkish inflation rates of as much as 85% during 2022 as they experienced their own version of the Crack up BOOM!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Friday, March 24, 2023

U.S. Money Supply Deflates 2% Annually (What That Means) / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

The debt bomb implodes: Expect recession and deflation;

Many pundits have expressed worry about the ramifications of global debt -- and rightly so. As the Wall Street Journal noted toward the end of 2022:

The world has amassed $290 trillion of debt and it's getting more expensive to pay for it.

In the U.S. alone, the cost of servicing the national debt is expected to skyrocket over the next decade (Fox News, Feb. 27):

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Thursday, March 16, 2023

I Walked into the Mercedes Dealership… / Economics / Motoring

By: Submissions

By Chris Wood : I couldn’t believe what I saw at the Mercedes dealership… 5% is the magic number… The simplest way to profit from the EV boom…
  1. I walked into a Mercedes shop in New Orleans the other day and was shocked…

All I saw were electric vehicles (EVs). Rows and rows of them.

I had to walk all the way to the back of the store to check out the “old school” gas-powered models.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, February 19, 2023

Get Ready for the GREAT DISINFLATION / DEFLATION CON of 2023 / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US CPILIE smoke and mirrors inflation rate has peaked and will head sharply lower during 2023 that will sow the seeds for the next spike higher to 10% during 2025.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Saturday, February 18, 2023

The Inflation Bonfire Continues but More States Are Fighting Back / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

As investors digest the latest readings on inflation, employment, and consumer spending, precious metals markets are wavering on fears of further rate hikes.

Inflation continues to run well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department released the latest Consumer Price Index figures. The CPI rose a higher than expected 0.5% in January. That translates into an annual gain of 6.4%.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

STEALTH INFLATION / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Gold and especially Silver are coming alive, the sleepers finally waking up to the INFLATION that they have been waiting for a decade to materialise. Where most are focused on the smoke and mirrors annual rate of CPLIE that the clueless mainstream media will latch onto to indicate that the Fed is winning and inflation is being defeated as the annual rate of CPI falls as the economy weakness..

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, January 08, 2023

Stagflation to Terrorize the US Economy in 2023 / Economics / Stagflation

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets got off to a strong start in the first couple days of trading this year before running into some selling pressure on Thursday – only to bounce back again on Friday morning.

A superficially strong jobs report has raised expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and boosted the U.S. dollar on foreign exchange markets. Metals futures traders reflexively responded by hitting the sell button yesterday only to turn around and buy today.

Investors often look at the first few trading days of a New Year for clues as to market trends that may develop for the rest of the year.

Financial News Report: U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday as fresh evidence of a tight labor market deepened fears the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer than expected.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Wednesday, January 04, 2023

Monetary Lags and the Acute Recession of 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Michael_Pento

Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023, up from the 4.6% projection made in the last SEP that was released in September.

And yet, the Deep State of Wall Street is busy telling investors that the Fed is almost done raising rates, hence, and a new bull market is right around the corner. But history proves this premise to be false. For example, during the preamble to the Great Recession, the Fed Funds Rate reached its apex in June of 2006 at 5.25%. It took 3 years for it to ascend to that level, up from the 1% starting level back in June of 2003. Ben Bernanke then began to cut rates in September of 2007; but the Great Recession began anyway in December of that same year. And, exactly one year from that first rate cut, the stock market went into freefall. This is another clear example of many throughout history that shows rate hikes work with a long lag.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Page << | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 | 110 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 150 | 160 | 170 | 180 | 190 | 200 | 210 | 220 | 230 | 240 | 250 | 260 | 270 | 280 | 290 | 300 | 310 | 320 | >>