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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, February 05, 2024

US Exponential Budget Deficit / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The US Congress Budget Office report projects the US deficit as a percentage of GDP being on an explosive trend trajectory which is as a function of the US government borrowing money to spend on consumption resulting in an ever interest payments and debt mountain. Folks we are looking at an out of control debt spiral, as interest on debt continues to result in the printing of even more new debt.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 04, 2024

Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Richard_Mills

The probability of interest rate cuts has many market participants pondering whether 2024 will bring a bull market for precious metals.

Gold has held up quite well despite the Fed’s tightening cycle, gaining 13% in 2023.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 01, 2023

The Bond Trade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bond Markets look like they have bottomed.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Biden Bizarrely Brags About Lower Budget Deficits as US Federal Debt Skyrockets / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

The more things change in Washington, the more they stay the same.

Under the new leadership of House Speaker Mike Johnson, Congress passed a stopgap funding bill on Tuesday to once again avert a government shutdown. It was quickly approved by the Senate on Wednesday, then signed into law by President Joe Biden.

Like the last one, this latest bipartisan budget scheme includes no spending cuts. So once again, deficit hawks are left feeling betrayed – not to mention alarmed at the country’s worsening fiscal trajectory.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 03, 2023

US Bond Market Chaos to Increase by March 2024 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of Q1 2024.

The U.S. national debt is now $33.5T, and the interest on that debt is $712b so far this year. That interest expense is set to double over the next few years as our debt is rolling over at much higher interest rates. Interest payments equal to 17% of all Federal revenue and should easily jump to 35% of all income very soon. The deficits will be much greater when the recession arrives, as the automatic economic stabilizers kick in, just as revenue also collapses. Entitlements and debt service payments will equal 100% of all revenue by 2040 at the very latest. At that point, there will be no room for any other government spending. Our bond market is fracturing, and it is becoming an existential crisis for our financial system. What else would you expect when the nation’s annual deficit is 45% of our revenue, and that is adding on each year to the national debt, which is an incredible 771% of annual federal income!
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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 28, 2023

The Bond Trade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As expected the four bond funds have been gravitating towards bear market lows and thus offering an opp to accumulate, I am now approx 55% invested.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 10, 2023

How to Capitalise on the UK and US Bond Markets Blood Bath of 2023 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the final part of my extensive analysis Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, lock it in now at $5 as this will soon rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 09, 2023

Investing in UK Bond ETFs - -GLTL and 3GIL / Interest-Rates / Investing 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

GLTL.L - £39 - UK Gilts 15+Yr

UK bonds have been obliterated, portfolios built up in bond funds over the past 10 years have been wiped out! Now you know why I have avoided bonds. Pittance in return during their bull market followed by a spectacular collapse, all whilst the lemmings encouraged stock investors to seek safety in bonds! This bond fund has COLLAPSED BY 60% off its high of £82! Imagine those who had parked the bulk of their cash in such funds by following the advice of FA's! Only discovering the catastrophe when they get their annual statements, A lot of TV's will have had remotes thrown at them! This is why there is no FREE LUNCH! It is YOUR MONEY it is upto YOU to DO THE WORK and understand what you are invested in else PAY THE PRICE of a 60% wipeout in what is supposed to be an ultra safe low volatility asset! When the exact opposite is true! If you lost similar on UK bonds then it's your fault for being LAZY! DO THE WORK!

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 09, 2023

Why You Should Expect a Once-in-a-Lifetime Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: EWI

U.S. credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion

On a national level, a debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay back its government debt. This might result from government spending exceeding tax revenues for an extended period.

On an individual level, a crisis can result from too little income and too much debt -- that simple. This sometimes means defaulting on a car loan, for example, or even declaring bankruptcy.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 08, 2023

US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr - US Equiv TLT ETF

Peaked at $523, collapsed to it's recent low of near 50% to $276, imagine all those who swallowed the financial advisors and media sales pitch to be 60% in bonds because they are 'lower risk' then stocks! This is HORRIFIC! MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RISK FOR A FRACTION OF THE RETURN OF STOCKS! HORRIFIC! Still it gives a higher volatility potential to accumulate into right now. Potential upside over 2-4 years is for $422 for a 52% on the current price!

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 08, 2023

US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTM.L £135.8 - US Treasury 7-10Yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This bond fund is down 29% from it's high with potential upside target of £175 for a 27% gain over a target 2-4 years, so a lower / risk lower return component of the portfolio. I've been accumulating since £139 with limit orders ever £1 lower, as well as timed based buys.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 01, 2023

UK and US Inverted Yield Curves and Bond Funds / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Yield Curves

At the late 2021 peak of the stock market the US short end yield was zero, long end (20 year) at about 2%. so the yield curve was normal. By the time of the bear market low was starting to invert, with the short end 3.5% vs long end 3.8%, fast forward to day we have the short end at 5.5%, Whilst most recent yield action has seen the short end and the long end nudge higher, hence offering an opportunity to accumulate near the bond markets lows.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 01, 2023

Investing in UK and US Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

And we arrive out our final destination, one of where doom and gloom prevails, most fear much higher BOND market interest rates! Where we have the likes of Bill Ackman literally announcing he is shorting US bonds AFTER they have fallen! Where were they a year go when that was the time to short bonds?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 21, 2023

Why we won't see a repeat of the 1970's Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Doom merchants continue to run off to the 1970's rate hikes that culminated in eye watering 15% completely miss what's staring them in the face for why that CANNOT happen this time! It can't happen because Debt to GDP is triple that of the 1970's! 120% vs 40%, Raising the Fed funds rate to 15% again would be akin to a 45% rate today.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Something Isn’t Adding Up as U.S. Debt Soars $2 Trillion in 2023 / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets retreated last week as official U.S. employment data came in surprisingly strong.

The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims fell by 13,000 to a total of 216,000. Many economists had been expecting jobless claims to rise.

Of course, government economic data is subject to revision and to criticism for flawed methodology. But it still has the ability to move markets, at least in the near term.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 03, 2023

US Bond Market Yield Curve Inversion Current State / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The yield curve is the Ten Year yield Minus 2 Year Yield - What it shows is when short money is more expensive (higher rates) then long money, why is that? Forward economic weakness thus lower forward rates? Yes that is a valid argument but I suspect that in large part is the WRONG conclusion, it is after all the consensus view, what the econofools regurgitate across MSM, long rates are lower because the market is discounting future interest rate cuts is WRONG!

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 24, 2023

The Fed as Bad Bank Ultimate Irony / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Jim_Willie_CB

A historical paradigm shift is in progress. The process of de-Dollarization began with Russia in response to the Maidan coup in Kiev back in 2016. The Russian reacted in multiple ways, but the Eurasian Trade Zone grew. That was the Jackass name given, which has emerged as the BRICS Union in recent years. Numerous nations have followed the Russian lead in removing the USDollar from their trade payments and banking practices. The American observers have dismissed this trend as trivial and not enduring. They are wrong, dead wrong. In the last 18 months, the Japanese had dumped $240 billion in USTreasury Bonds over a 12-month period. They continue. They accumulate Gold in their banking reserves, thus following the BRICS theme, their operating policy. The macrocosm, by contrast, will feature 20 nations dumping USTBonds en masse, and acquiring Gold for banking reserves. The UAE will become a primary office for the conversion, their Dirham notably pegged to the USD.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Fed Claims It CAN Resume Rate Hikes While Doubts Grow / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

As the Federal Reserve begins to back off on tightening, the U.S. dollar is becoming increasingly vulnerable to selling.

The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at just above 5% at this week's policy meeting. It was the first time in over a year that central bankers decided not to hike.

In his remarks, Fed chairman Jerome Powell tried to maintain a hawkish tone despite the dovish policy move. He vowed to deliver more rate hikes later this year.
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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 16, 2023

US Interest Rate A Pause Like Nonother / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The Bank of Canada paused its rate hiking cycle in January but then hiked rates at its last meeting. The
Royal Bank of Australia paused in April but then had to start hiking again in June. The Fed also paused at
its June meeting or at least skipped a rate hike. This was the case even though core inflation rose 0.4%
month over month from April to May and was still up 5.3% from a year ago.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's definitely the time to bring out the clowns as MSM and much of the blogosfear are obsessed by the US debt ceiling smoke and mirrors circus that is being used as an excuse to explain potential market outcomes from a CRASH upwards, there is always a crash coming! And if the market soars then no problem it will soar because of debt ceiling positive developments, Whether UP or Down it will all be as a consequence of the DEBT CEILING! I have watched this circus take place every couple of years over the decades, it IS just a circus act for the Republicans and Democrats to prance around in front of the media, a smoke and mirrors TV show to remind the masses that they have all of the power and so if the chose to nuke the US economy.

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