Monday, February 10, 2025
Gold Stocks Valuation Anomaly / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The gold miners’ stock prices have largely decoupled from their metal, which overwhelmingly drives their profits. This fundamental disconnect has spawned a shocking valuation anomaly, with gold stocks far too low relative to gold. But this aberration won’t last, as markets abhor extreme deviations from precedent. Mean reversions and proportional overshoots soon follow, so gold stocks will soar to reflect their record earnings.
Across stock markets throughout history, stock prices ultimately gravitate towards reasonable multiples of their underlying corporate profits. Those valuations vary with sectors, and herd sentiment can force them away from averages for some time. But eventually they always normalize, with mean reversions being an immutable market force. Visualize sector valuations like sine waves oscillating around long-term averages.
From a high-level valuation perspective, gold mining is a simple business. Miners excavate, haul, and crush gold-bearing ores, process them to recover the gold, then sell it usually at prevailing market prices. Profits are the difference between those and the costs of bringing that gold to market. While the metal can surge fast as this past year’s monster upleg proved again, mining costs lag way behind climbing slowly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 08, 2025
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto's Under President Donald Pump / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This article Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 08, 2025
Transition to a New Global Monetary System / Stock-Markets / Global Financial System
By: Raymond_Matison
Our current/old system
The last systemic or significant change in our Federal Reserve’s monetary policy occurred in 1971, when gold backing to our dollar was completely removed, and the United States transitioned to a centralized, completely fiat monetary system. While president Nixon is generally attributed for this action, in reality it was the previous decade’s government spending for wars and public social programs that forced this decision.
Since 1971, budget deficits have grown as national debt has exploded to what recently is now generally recognized by everyone to be at an unsustainable level. The official national debt (according to the National Debt Clock) at $36.3 trillion excludes the nation’s unfunded liabilities exceeding $222 trillion, which represents approved government programs for which no financial provisions have been made. In addition, just the present interest costs on our official debt alone exceeds $1 trillion per year, which is larger what ironically is called our defense rather than offense budget. Since governments always operate with budget deficits, it is guaranteed that our national debt and its servicing costs will continue to rise until the monetary system spirals out of control and destroys the nation’s currency. This is not something expected to occur decades in the future, but rather something that could occur at any time - only requiring an unexpected event to set it off.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 08, 2025
Betting On Outliers: Yuri Milner and the Art of the Power Law / Companies / Learning to Invest
By: Submissions
By halfway through 2024, annual global venture capital funding had reached $94 billion across 4,500 deals. Most of these investments supported companies in artificial intelligence, financial services, and healthcare.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 02, 2025
President Black Swan Slithers into the Year of the Snake, Chaos Rules! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you enjoy Monday's black swan panic event that caught everyone by surprise? MSM needed a reason to explain why to it's audience and so plucked deepseek as a likely reason for the sell off in stocks and crypto's despite the R1 model having been released a week earlier!
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 27, 2025
Trump's Squid Game America, a Year of Black Swans and Bull Market Pumps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FLASH CRASH! Stocks and cryptos are plunging catching everyone off guard! Are enjoying the Black Swan Panic Event that you had 4 days advance warning of to prepare to capitalise upon? :)
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Japan Interest Rate Hike - Black Swan Panic Event Incoming? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief as sent to Patrons Thursday Morning (23rd Jan).
Stock Market Brief - Possible Black Swan Event at 2am GMT 24th Jan 2024.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 12, 2025
It's Five Nights at Freddy's Again! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day, you get access to my most recent market brief as sent to Patrons Sunday 12th.
Early 2025 stock market rally evaporates triggering much doom and gloom though the S&P is barely changed on the start of the year! We have got pretty much a repeat of a year ago i.e. Santa rally fail, first five days down, that got folk into a bit of panic as the likes of Hirsch had talked up his incoming Trifecta SELL Signal on a Down January which prompted me to do the following Five Nights at Freddy's article -
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 05, 2025
Squid Game Stock Market 2025 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
The S&P ends 2024 at 5881 up an epic 23% on the year virtually a repeat of the +24% for 2023, and down 2.75% on the month which is contrary to the seasonal pattern for Decembers. In fact 2024 has been a year of contrary to seasonal price trends, i.e. April was down when it should have been Up, September was Up when it should have been Down and now December is down when it should have been Up, so Investing in the stock market during 2024 was a bit like playing Squid Game, every investor thinks they know with certainty that they will win with their perfect buys but most got killed or were left on the sidelines as the watched the market do the opposite of what they were expecting it to do, the key lesson being to be positioned for the market to either go up or down whilst maintaining exposure to the BULL MARKET as despite all of the fear and fomo the stock market managed to snake it's way to an epic gain of 23% for the year! What more could investors have asked for from 2024? The fact that despite this many are still disappointed speaks volumes of how difficult investing actually is practice vs folk thinking it will be easy money, if you find yourself disappointed despite a 23% gain then what are you going to be like during a down year?
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 27, 2024
Stock Market Bubble Drivers, Crypto Exit Strategy During Musk Presidency / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Counting down to year end and continuing pump into President Musk's inauguration that should see stocks and crypto's pump to new highs, with perhaps First Lady Donald giving us all a twirl on the dance floor.
Friday, December 27, 2024
Gold Stocks’ Remain Exceptionally Weak Even as Stocks Rise / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Calm before the storm, anyone?
Turning Points Ahead
So far, this week has been calm. However, as you read in my previous analysis, the turning points are near and we still have four more sessions before the end of the year. Bitcoin just failed to move above $100k again, and it is declining in the pre-market trading, and S&P 500 futures are down as well. Time will tell if that was the beginning of a bigger downturn, or will we still have to wait for it to start.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 27, 2024
Gold’s Remarkable Year / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold truly enjoyed a remarkable 2024, relentlessly powering higher to many new records. Gold achieved a rare monster-status upleg, which proved extraordinarily-unusual. Big gains stacked up despite extreme overboughtness, speculators’ exceedingly-overextended gold-futures positioning, and American stock investors not yet chasing gold’s upside. Several sources of major global demand coalesced for the heavy lifting.
For the past quarter-century, I’ve been in the contrarian-financial-newsletter business. All day everyday I’m blessed to study the markets, actively trade mostly gold stocks, and share all my research and trades with our newsletter subscribers. Few people in the world have been as deeply-immersed in gold and its miners’ stocks as I have. Coming from this meticulous heavily-studied perspective, 2024 was totally unique.
One year ago this week, gold was trading around a then-nominal-record $2,075. Some optimism was building, as in early December 2023 gold had just carved its first record close in fully 3.3 years. Yet at $2,071, that certainly wasn’t materially better than early August 2020’s $2,062. Incidentally gold’s run leading into that was its last monster-status upleg, soaring to 40%+ gains without any 10%+ corrections.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
We are now into the time frame for a santa rally that runs from Monday into early January, 2024 has been another great year for AI tech stocks whilst most focus on the indices nothing burgers be it the S&P or Nasdaq (which I don't pay any attention to).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 22, 2024
STOP LOSSES / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A Patron asks -
"Hi Nadeem, How do you plan for the unforeseen? In RUS-UKR context, recent Russian declaration/updating of Nuclear Doctrine. That a Non-Nuclear state can be nuked under this doctrine. This may or may not happen. However that is not the point. I have not put the Stop Orders on any of the shares, may be being a rookie. Should there always be a Stop Order for each share I own to hedge against black swan events? Would negative 20% Stop Orders make sense? I am saying 20% just as a random number. "
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Fed Tests Gold Price Upleg / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The Federal Reserve somehow surprised traders with a hawkish rate cut this week. While that had been expected, apparently the Fed’s projected rate-cut trajectory slowed even more than feared. So market reactions were violent, including the US dollar blasting higher unleashing heavy gold-futures selling. This is the latest in a long line of Fed-spawned tests of gold’s resilience, challenging its current monster upleg.
From early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold skyrocketed 53.1% higher achieving a rare 40%+ monster-status upleg! Gold powered to 43 new nominal record closes in that remarkable span, despite massive uplegs’ usual driver being missing-in-action. Enamored with the AI stock bubble, American stock investors weren’t chasing gold’s upside momentum at all. That’s evident in the dominant gold ETFs’ holdings.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
Well, that was quite the eventful week. We had a Fed announcement, and all the market geniuses were quick to attribute the cause of the 3% decline to the Fed announcement. However, this is nothing more than a foolish and very superficial perspective, which evidences their lack of true understanding of how our markets work.
As I have said often, while news can act as a catalyst for a market move, the substance of the news is really irrelevant in determining the direction of the move. In fact, we have seen many moves through market history which have not even been supported by the news. In fact, in1988 there was a study conducted by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers entitled “What Moves Stock Prices,” which supports my perspective.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Never Buy an IPO / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a reminder of why you should never buy IPO's. not worth the risk. IPO's are accompanied with a huge amount of sales and marketing hype so that the insiders can offload their shares to retail crowd at an inflated valuation where the figures in the financial statements tend to be pure fantasy conjured out of thin air by the merchant banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 20, 2024
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Latest Market Brief 20th Dec 2024
Crypto's are dumping, Bitcoin $94k, Solana $180, Doge $0.28, AVAX $34, COIN $260 can be very enticing to buy the dip for the next FOMO rally but I have always considered crypto's to be fairy dust, easy come easy go, so this is a warning that the TOP for crypto's could be in, so as I've been saying in the comments I would be very wary of buying the dip as the plan since the Trump pump began has been to disinvest from crypto's. Those who have followed should by now should have banked profits, I mean my exit strategy in recent articles could not have made things any clearer of what I am doing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? / Companies / Nvidia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
MSM Cerebras IPO hype has already started!
HEADLINES -
- Cerebras, an Nvidia Challenger, Files for IPO Confidentially
- Forget Nvidia: Billionaires Are Selling It and Buying This Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Rival Hand Over Fist Instead
- Forget Intel and AMD - Nvidia's next big competitor might be a company you've never heard of
This is how the IPO game is played, pump the media with fake stories of how good Cerebus is and that it could take Nvidia's place to get fools to FOMO into a piece of garbage IPO.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X / Companies / Nvidia
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a reminder of why folk should not make the mistake of having little exposure to Nvidia, the more exposure the better - next gen accelerator (Black well) is 5x current gen H100 and depending on application and config delivers upto a 30X boost in performance, the AI bubble is nowhere near it's peak, take current deviation from the high as an opp you will regret missing, reminds me of buying bitcorn during Q4 2023, we all wanted it to dip but I nibbled a bit every other day to build up exposure, that's what folk should be doing with Nvidia.
Read full article... Read full article...