Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold and Silver Markets Brief
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2025 Feb 18, 2025 - 01:59 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day you get access to my latest market brief that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups . https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
<<< Market Brief - 17th Feb 2025 - Risk is to the Upside >>>
S&P 6114 - Trades to a New All time High and the Nasdaq ia not far from doing the same as I keep iterating Risk is to the Upside! Recent Nvidia price action illustrates how MSM focuses on the FEAR of nothing burgers. Nvidia correcting was accompanied by DeepFake MEDIA Hysteria all whilst the smart money was buying. The media is ALWAYS in search of FEAR stories. Whether the stock prices react to media hysteria is variable, I mean Nvidia only traded down into it's buying zone that has been in situ for months so what did I do? I BOUGHT Nvidia, upped my exposure from 43% to 63% of target. We never got to the getting lucky level of $100, so I don't think MSM hysteria played any part in the price drop which was as I wrote AHEAD of the event a function of the Yen carry trade unwind that from what I can tell wasn't even mentioned by MSM, they focused on the wrong thing and thus do not understand why Nvidia is now strongly rebounding targeting a new all time high and well beyond and alls folk had to do was buy the dip, with the buying rage of $120 to $104 leading the way, can't get much easier but still some talked themselves into waiting for $75? How they think Nvidia's going to get to $75?
S&P direction of travel remains to target a trend to 6450 by Mid April.
Japanese economy stronger than expected annualised GDP 2.8%, what does this mean? Higher Japanese rates, stronger Yen = Weaker Dollar
Sterling bull market - GBP 1.26 - continuing to confirm direction of travel to above 1.3. My long view for the bull market that began October 2022 is that we could see sterling trade to above 1.4 that's a 40% MOVE from trough to peak! And probably similar for the Euro, i.e. despite what the governments are doing market rates are nudging hjgher and hence so are the currencies vs the dollar.
Folk lament that the strengthening pound is eating into their profits, however you won't get one without the other. USUALLY Stocks go up the strongest with a falling dollar. So Strong dollar = weak stock prices, and very strong dollar = bear market. So folk need to understand this fact, it's not a case of Nvidia going up despite the weakening dollar, it's BECAUSE the weakening dollar is acting as the wind behind Nvidia's sail i.e. discounting higher foreign revenues.
Gold $2900 consolidating it's bull run, $3000 is a done deal. Why is it going higher? Safehaven and inflation.
Silver $32.8 spiked to $34, silver is volatile. I can see Silver spiking to $50, though don't ask me when, I continue to scale out of what I accumulated years ago as the spike to $50 could prove very short lived.
So everything's lining up for a very weak dollar and higher stock and commodity prices.
TENCENT - A lot of take profits triggered on Hong Kong on break above 500, looks like it opened trading at $506, looking at the chart high so far was $512. It's been a long 3 year wait, illustrates one needs to give ones positions time and keep calm and carry on buying the dips in target stocks. Also a few 9988 alibaba.
META $736 - Despite trimming the rally META remains my largest holding, I wrote many years ago you'll know when AI has taken over because AI stocks such as Google and META will inexplicably keep rising. META stock price is telling us that META is winning the AI war, which means AI agents replacing human workers at an accelerated pace, in fact digging deeper who has the most Nvidia H100's? META at 350k, followed by X AI at 100k, then TESLA 35k, 4th Lambda 30k, META is now numero uno in AI! Soon virtually all of the high paying tech jobs will be gone! And not soon afterwards most of the rest, AI is soon going to be WORKING IN THE FACTORIES, WALKING THE STREETS! META isn't trading at $736 because of some crappy open source LLM, it's trading here because it leads in AI Supremacy and all that it looks set to deliver! META DROID WORKERS!
Bottom line the window is fast closing for ordinary folk to at least try and get rich, after which most folk will be frozen in terms of their status where no matter what they do they will be unable to move up the wealth ladder. You do not have the time to procrastinate! AI does not care for your carefully planned time tables.
Bitcoin paralysed at $97.5k, it's failing to trend higher, failing to trade back above $100k. I'm eyeing those two preceding lows at $91.6k and $89.5k and thinking if no ones willing to push it higher then I may as well run the stops and take out those two lows with a flash crash down to $88 that then allows for the rebound to swiftly take $100k. So first the longs get killed and then the shorts.
Trump Empire Building latest
Trump wants piece in Ukraine, a piece of this and a piece of that to become the 52nd state those areas rich in rare earth minerals, Trump offered Zelenskyy $500 billion, probably as credits to buy US military equipment. If Ukrainians thought the Russians were bad ...... ��
And' I'm waiting for Trump to announce he wants to make the parts of Taiwan where the fab's are as America's 53rd state..... The list of Trumps imperial ambitions keeps growing.
Meanwhile the website set up by Fuhrer Musk Youth got hacked, these so called geniuses don't even know the basics of securing websites!
Because of Musk Tesla has a destiny with sub $200, remember most of Tesla stock's valuation is a story that Musk will deliver billions of robot workers, if he is deemed to be mentality incapable of doing so then Tesla stock takes a big hit.
The stock price bounced off of support at $320, where I'll probably trim some more north of $390 and put on additional shorts, I am about 12% short of my long position. You don't want to be naked short in a bull market regardless of ones view.
Next article ETA before market open Monday 24th Feb 2025
Your analyst waiting for Trump to get impeached for Trump coin rug pull just as Argentina's Milei looks set to be for his rug pull shit coin Libra. It never fails to amaze me of how easily folk can get conned by con men such as Trump and Milei. As I keep stating, DON'T DRINK THE kOOLAID!
By Nadeem Walayat
Again for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Most Recent Analysis -
President Chaos Delivering Tariffs Buying Opps - Earnings GOOG, AMD, QCOM, RBLX, AMZN
Recent analysis includes -
Trump's Squid Game America, a Year of Black Swans and Bull Market Pumps
Earnings Black Swans - MSFT, TSLA, META, AAPL, KLAC, IBM, INTC
Trump's Squid Game America, a Year of Black Swans and Bull Market Pumps
CONTENTS
The External Revenue (Inflation) Service
The Next Wave of the Inflation CRISIS
UK Inflation Crisis
CPLIE - BTFD!
How to Hack the Inflation Wage Slave System
GOLD Price Trend
Silver Price Trend
Sterling Cyclical Bull Market
US Dollar Topping
Japan Rate Hike - Black Swan Panic Event Incoming?
Why Recession Fears Are a Nothing Burger
Stock Market Post Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's
Stock Market Deviation Against the Trend Forecast
Stock Market Forecasts Redux
Nvidia DIGITS Mini PC
Your Only Defence in the Age of AI is Your Stocks Portfolio!
Tesla Stock Slide
Tesla - Secondary
AI Stocks Portfolio
TSM Signals AI Trend is Strong!
SMT.L Garbage Recovers
Bitcoin Target
China Has Lost the War Even Before the First Shot is Fired
First 100 Days of the Trump Reich
California's Burning Climate Change Consequences
UK ISA Platforms
What Brit's Need to to do Get £11.5k per annum for FREE!
Squid Game Stock Market 2025, S&P Detailed Trend Forecast
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Get High on Donald Trump Pump
Stocks Santa Rally, Bitcoin Final Pump and AI Stocks Buying Gifts
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks $100k Barrier
And access to my exclusive to patron's only content such as the How to Really Get Rich series.
Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide
Also access to my comprehensive 3 part How to Get Rich series -
Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide
Learn to Use the FORCE! How to Really Get Rich Part 2 of 3
The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH
It's simple, you pay $7 and you get FULL access to ALL of my content -
※ Patrons Get FIRST access to all of my In-depth analysis and high probability Trend Forecasts, usually 2 full months before the rest of the world. Notified by Patreon by email as well as posted on my patreon page and I also send a short message in case the time extensive email does not make it to your inbox.
※Access to my carefully constructed and maintained AI Tech Stocks Portfolio that is updated on an ongoing basis, that includes on going commentary and a comprehensive spreadsheet that features unique innovations such as the remarkably useful EGF's.
※A concise to the point Investing Guide that explains my key strategies and rules for successful investing.
※ Regular content on How to Trade & Invest incorporated into most articles so as to keep patrons eyes on the big picture and not get too sucked into the noise of price swings.
※ Access to my comprehensive How to Really Get Rich series of articles and 3 part guide, clear concise steps that I may eventually form a Patrons only ebook.
※ Access to conclusions from my ongoing market studies from a total of over 200 conducted studies over the decades. updated whenever the market poses a question to be answered. Also enjoy the fruits of R&D into machine learning such as the CI18 Crash indicator that correctly called both the pandemic crash (Feb 2020) and the 2022 bear market (Dec 2021) well before the fact.
※Join our community where I reply to comments and engage with patrons in discussions on a daily basis.
※ I will also keep my Patrons informed of what I am currently working on each month.
※ Influence over my analysis schedule.
My objective is to provide on average 2 pieces of in-depth analysis per month and regular interim pieces of analysis as market briefs. So over a 12 month period expect to receive 24 pieces of in-depth analysis. Though my focus is on providing quality over quantity as you can see from the extent and depth of each analysis which I deem necessary so as to arrive at that which is the most probable market outcome.
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before it rises to $10 per month for new sign-up's. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.
Your buying the black swan panic events analyst.
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2025 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
