Saturday, May 12, 2018
Trump’s Iran-Decision Did-not and Won’t Affect Oil Prices / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
:Unless U.S.A. decides to go to War to Impress Stormy Daniels.
- By some reports, President Trump’s Iran-decision caused oil prices to “jump 3%”. Actually that was intra-day; the change day-on-day was 1.7%. The probability the mini-jump was not caused by the announcement is 59%; since the null-hypothesis needs less than 5% to be called “statistically-significant”, that’s not. The probability is 86% if you do four-day changes, i.e. even less probable.
- The day after Benjamin Netanyahu made his presentation on Iran, oil prices dropped 2.8%; which, intriguingly, is “statistically significant” (P>[t]=0.0438*); perhaps the markets’ take; was that they figured the likelihood of an interruption in Iranian oil supplies, or a war, was less likely, after they heard the presentation?
Friday, May 11, 2018
Big US Stocks Fundamentals, New Bear Market Awakening? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets are just wrapping up a truly-extraordinary earnings season. Naturally this first quarter under Republicans’ new corporate tax cuts fueled surging profits. But sales were up big too, which is no mean feat for massive companies. With sustained growth at this torrid pace impossible, peak-earnings fears are mounting. And valuations stayed extremely expensive exiting Q1.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs contain the best fundamental data available to investors and speculators. They dispel all the sentimental distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.
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Friday, May 11, 2018
Navigating The Bullish Crude Cycle / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Science_Investing
From A Technical Analysis PerspectiveCrude remains short-term bullish as long as the nearest WTI contract trades above the blue dotted horizontal support region.
Oil ran up and made higher highs inside the pale blue trend channel. The progress got confirmed by geopolitical newsflow. Moreover, the most important commodity price gained despite a stronger US dollar. A breakout above the January 2018 high got further traction after being retested at the end of April 2018. Oil prices surpassed the solid blue trendline spanning back to June 2016 this trading week. We asses that as a fake breakout as part of a leading diagonal. Oil prices are likely to correct into the 66.50-67.00 region before resuming the uptrend.
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Friday, May 11, 2018
Why Trump WANTS Iran to Develop Nuclear Weapons for Israel and End Time Prophecies / Politics / Middle East
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trump has once more pressed the reset button on what has come before by resetting the middle east to where it was before the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as President Trump declared to the masses that he 'keeps his promises' whilst breaking America's promise in respect of the Iran Nuclear deal (JCPOA) which had put Iran's nuclear weapons programme into reverse gear as verified by regular IAEA inspections, in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions that have now been reimposed. Unfortunately, Iran NOT engaged in developing nuclear weapons is not in the interests for large section of Trumps delirious electoral base, the Christian fundamentalists who desperately crave the End Time apocalypse prophecies to be fulfilled in their life time so that the Messiah may return and they all be raptured straight to paradise, an ideology backed by the Israeli state and its own Jewish fanatics who have their own prophesies for the coming of the Messiah and perceive everything that Israel does being towards that end. Whilst of course the Islamic fundamentalists also await their own version of the End Times prophecies to be fulfilled which was the primary reason why Islamic State came into existence in Syria as a means of making prophecy become manifest.
Friday, May 11, 2018
Bitcoin Simmering Slowly... / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The situation in the market has become one where Bitcoin is trading on relatively low volume without major moves. But the currency is in a very important place. Actually, Bitcoin is simmering slowly. Will it boil? Will this increase the profits on our hypothetical positions?
The Bitcoin market has its undeniable quirks. From the wild volatility of the currency, to a community of developers supporting it, to the fact that Bitcoin can be put in vaults. Putting Bitcoin in “cold vaults” usually means transferring the currency to a storage device without any access to the Internet or any outside networks. But sometimes Bitcoin is put in actual vaults. In an article on Bloomberg, we read:
Behind the guards, the blast doors and down corridors of reinforced concrete, sit the encrypted computer servers -- connected to nothing -- that hold keys to a vast digital fortune.
Friday, May 11, 2018
Litecoin, Bitcoin and Ethereum Crypto Market Ready For Lunar Launch? / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Avi_Gilburt
Ryan Wilday writes: Over the last few months, I have released a couple articles suggesting a potential bottom was in for the crypto market. Unfortunately, support levels that I called out did not hold, so I had to look lower.
I am writing anew having seen a very bullish pattern off the recent lows struck on April 1. Currently, most of the coins we track have the "impulsive five," a pattern we look for to indicate a bottom. These patterns so far are more bullish in structure than previous patterns seen since January. Furthermore, these structures, as measured in Fibonacci levels, are higher than before. This is promising.
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Friday, May 11, 2018
The Precious Metals Conundrum / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published on Sun May 6, 2018 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: A sideways correction lasting a year and a half certainly does a lot to sour investors on a market. And, even though we have not dropped below 20 in GDX this entire time and the GLD has been consolidating just under its breakout region for months, the bearishness and frustration in the complex is palpable. In fact, I have even seen people calling for sub $1000 gold again, and we have not even broken a single support level yet. For me, this is a head scratcher.
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Friday, May 11, 2018
Gold GLD Update…All Aboard ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
This first chart is a daily line chart for GLD which shows it has completed 5 reversal points so far and is working on the all important 6th reversal point back up to the top rail. This is where the bulls need to step up to the plate.
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Friday, May 11, 2018
Amazon Patents Orwellian Tech Allowing Police To Track Bitcoin Transactions / Politics / Bitcoin
By: Jeff_Berwick
Corporatist retail giant Amazon.com has received approval from the United States Patent and Trademark Office for a technology allowing police to track Bitcoin transactions.
As reported by CNBC, the patent--filed by Amazon Technologies--will "correlate different data streams and sell the combined feed as a subscription to people who want to track that data."
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
What happens to the Stock Market when VIX closes below 14 / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Troy_Bombardia
VIX closed below 14 yesterday for the first time since February 1, 2018. This study examines what happens next to the stock market (historically) when VIX closes below 14 for the first time in at least 3 months.
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
UK Base Rate Remains on hold – What it Means for Savers and Borrowers / Personal_Finance / UK Interest Rates
By: MoneyFacts
The lead-up to the Bank of England’s latest base rate decision has been a rocky road, with the markets changing their prediction from odds on to unlikely in the space of a few days. Today’s announcement to keep interest rates on hold confirms this past week’s predictions, and is likely to be met with frustration by savers and relief by borrowers.
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
UK Savings and Mortgage Markets Picks of the Week - Tandem Bank, Post office Money, Leeds BS and Tesco / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
The moneyfacts.co.uk Pick of the Week showcases the best of the latest products or rate changes to hit the consumer finance market.
Brief product details together with independent Moneyfacts analysis can be used with confidence in your finance sections. You can select one or two products to sit beside a relevant story or use them all as a general feature.
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
Stock Market Upside Breakout Pattern to New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Since before the start of 2018, we have been relying on our advanced predictive modeling systems, technical analysis and our understanding of the capital markets to help our members take advantage of the incredible price swings in 2018. For those that have been following our calls, we’ve pretty much nailed every market turn over the past 5+ months perfectly and have been able to call many of the tops and bottoms in the markets two to three weeks (or more) in advance. Honestly, do you know of any other research firm that can call marker reversals nearly a month in advance and be correct in timing it?
Thursday, May 10, 2018
How This Classic Market Theory Can Warn You of Big Stock Market Turns / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: EWI
Dow Theory non-confirmations attend the start of every big bear market
Dow Theory is a time-honored market analysis tool. Its name comes from Charles H. Dow, co-founder of The Wall Street Journal.
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
The S&P 500 and Treasury Yields: A 20-year perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Donald_W_Dony
This is a chart comparison between the S&P 500 and the 10-year yields. It shows the rise in bond yields is a normal action during a bull market.
In the last phase of the 1980 to 2000 secular equity rise and throughout the 2003 to 2007 bull market, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields advanced.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
Coming Inflationary Storm Is Entirely Due to Central Banks / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
We’ve received a number of emails asking us how inflation is on the rise while the Fed is technically “tightening.”
The answer is that while the Fed is technically tightening, other Central Banks, particularly the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) have been printing their currencies by the hundreds of billions.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
It’s Not Supply & Demand Inflating This US Housing Market Bubble / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I recently told our readers about how this latest real estate bubble looks just like the last one. It’s surged about the same, this time peaking a little higher, and has run for about as long.But what’s driving this bubble is totally different than what drove the last one.
The first bubble was thanks to Baby Boomers flooding the market as they surged through their peak home-buying years in unprecedented numbers. They were helped along with the most liberal lending standards in history. Remember the days of subprime, variable rates, and NINJA loans?
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
The Top 20 Small Towns Millionaires Call Home / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I came across some interesting data recently…If you’re thinking of retiring or moving to a smaller area that still has some affluence, maybe a few good restaurants, here are 20 small towns that have a high percentage of millionaires.
Millionaires are only 4% of households in the U.S. with an overall median income of $59,039.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
The 20 Cities Most at Risk in US Real Estate Market / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
Guess where the greatest real estate gains have been since the Great Recession and the massive QE surge?Florida and California… surprise, surprise!
California real-estate prices have exploded because there’s very limited supply there and Florida prices shot to the moon thanks to that states high domestic and international migration.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2018
What’s the Real Problem with Tesla? / Companies / Electric Cars
By: Rodney_Johnson
Bonds are an interesting financial animal.With stocks, investors become part owners of a company, albeit usually at a very, very small level. We benefit as the company earns more revenue and profit, hopefully sending some of the cash back to us in the form of dividends, or using the funds to grow the company or, these days, buy back stock.
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