Monday, July 09, 2018
How Trade Wars Penalize Asian Currencies / Currencies / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not so long ago, Asian currencies anticipated depreciation pressures to increase, due to monetary normalization. Yet, it is the trade wars that are now penalizing all currencies, particularly in exporting economies.In January, I gave a global economic briefing on the outlook of the Philippines in the Nordic Chamber of Commerce in Manila. At the time, the peso was still about 50.80 to U.S. dollar. Among other things, I projected the peso to soften to 54 or more toward the end of the year, which I considered largely the net effect of normalization in advanced economies, elevated trade friction worldwide, as well as fiscal expansion (the Duterte investment program).
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I know most are getting bulled up here, but I’m thinking we go lower into the 12th before rocketing higher in the stock market. Notice the 16 TD tops on the SPX on chart below!GDX and gold look lower into next week and perhaps the week after. Typically, the PM's have been finding bottoms in July and December, so a short term buying opportunity looks forthcoming perhaps into at least August, maybe September.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Why Trade Wars Are Really Good For The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
If you read most of the analysis being published over the last two days, you would almost assume that the S&P500 should be crashing or be in a bear market. Yet, we are only 4% off the all-time highs struck early this year in the S&P, whereas the Nasdaq and Russell have made new higher highs this summer.
In fact, if you had read the analysis put out over the last two days when further tariffs went into effect, you would have to assume that Friday should have been a major down day in the US markets. This is just an excerpt from a bearish author’s recent article on the US market:
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Are the Stock Market Bulls Starting to Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – In spite of recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 have to extendits corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Brexit Gross Incompetence / Politics / BrExit
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Here’s the lowdown: the EU’s single market mechanism dictates freedom of movement for labor, capital, services and goods. These are not divisible; you cannot have one without the other. Still, that’s precisely what Theresa May, again, is proposing. She basically wants to keep the UK in the single market for goods, and make other arrangements for the rest. The EU will not accept that because it could have 27 other countries coming with their own versions of single market à la carte.
Sunday, July 08, 2018
Breadth is Leading the Stock Market Higher. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The NYSE’s Advance-Decline cumulative line is one of the best breadth indicators for the U.S. stock market. It adds the number of stocks that went up each day and subtracts the number of stocks that went down each day.
This is a long term leading indicator for the stock market.
The Advance-Decline cumulative line just made a new high even though the S&P 500 hasn’t. The Advance-Decline cumulative line hasn’t allowed the S&P’s pullbacks to push it down.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Gold Price Selling Exhausting / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has been afflicted by relentless selling over the past few weeks or so, forcing it to major lows. While summer-doldrums weakness is typical, gold’s recent drop is on the large side even for this time of year. It was fueled by truly-extreme short selling by gold-futures speculators, which is quickly exhausting. That is paving the way for gold’s major autumn rally to start marching higher any day now, a very-bullish omen.
A month ago when gold was still near $1300, I published my latest research on its summer doldrums. The first halves of market summers including Junes and early Julies have long tended to be the weakest times of the year seasonally for gold. They are simply devoid of the recurring seasonal demand surges gold enjoys during most of the rest of the year. With investors not interested in buying, gold languishes.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
Trump’s Trade Wars Could Spark Global Flight to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policies are upending decades of global arrangements and entanglements. Globalists are aghast that the leader of the free world is openly confrontational toward NAFTA, NATO, the European Union, United Nations, and World Trade Organization.
In rebuffing the global community by pursuing unilateral tariffs and vowing to win trade wars against both rivals and putative allies alike, Trump is playing a high stakes game. Trump’s trade wars could test the U.S. dollar’s status as world reserve currency.
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
The Euro, the British Pound and the Other Side of the Coin / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Analyzing the medium-term charts of the euro and the British pound, we see that currency bulls fought fiercely with their rivals during recent weeks. Despite several attempts to push both currencies lower, they successfully defended their main strongholds in both cases and defeated fans of the greenback. What does this mean for the U.S. currency and its European competitors?
Saturday, July 07, 2018
Land Rover Discovery Sport What to Know Before Buying, 6 Month Owner Driver Review / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: N_Walayat
This is my comprehensive review of the Land Rover Discover Sport after owning and driving a HSE Black trim for over 6 months, of what to expect if you are considering buying one as it does take a few months of real world driving before one is fully aware of the cars good and bad points, such as the pretty feeble plastic trim that tends to surround Discovery Sports, the rattling sound that many owners tend to experience again apparently due to poor quality trim / build.
So whilst the Discovery Sport looks great on the driveway and generally drives well, in many other respects my previous 11 year old Zafira was better i.e. the back two seats are seriously lacking in leg room, definitely not enough space for adults! And what's worse is that real world fuel economy will come nowhere near Land Rovers sales pitch of the DISCO doing 53.3 MPG. Then we have the fantasy of the first oil service change at 21,000 miles, when in reality the car will be requesting an oil change much sooner than that! So watch my 6 month real owner and driver review for what you need to beware of if considering buying one. Where this HSE Black was bought from Hunters Inchcape in Chester.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Crude Oil and Its Another Interesting Relationship / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Tuesday's unsuccessful attempt to break above upper borders of the rising trend channels cost oil bulls more than many buyers expected. Their weakness was quickly detected by therivals, who took control during yesterday's session. The effects of their attackare seen not only on the crude oil charts, because they also affected the pronunciation of our next interesting ratio. Is it possible that the relationship betweenblack gold and the general stock market will give us valuable tipson the future of light crude as it happened many times in the past?
Friday, July 06, 2018
Was That The Gold Price Bottom? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
First published Sun Jul 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Dealing with markets is more about psychology than it is about anything else. So, let’s begin this weekend’s analysis with a discussion of the psychology of the metals market.
There has been no trade more frustrating over the last several years than the metals. In fact, if you even remember back in 2015, the low we struck at the end of the year was at the completion of a year-long ending diagonal, which itself caused a great deal of frustration. So, to put this market action into perspective, within the last 42 months, we have spent approximately 32 of those months in overlapping and frustrating structures.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
The End of Quantitative Easing and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
June was hot for the central banks. The Federal Reserve lifted the federal funds rate for the second time this year, while the European Central Bank announced that it would end its bond purchase program by the end of 2018. It would mean another step towards normalization of the crisis-era monetary policy, which would end quantitative easing on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. What do these important developments imply for the gold market?
On June the 13th, the Fed raised interest rates for another 25 basis points. It was the second hike in 2018 and the seventh in this tightening cycle. The move was widely expected, so it did not shake the markets. However, the Fed’s statement was more hawkish than anticipated, as the U.S. central bank suggested two more rate hikes this year.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
The Stock Market’s “Turnover Bubble” Isn’t as Bad as it Sounds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Every time you hear words “speculative behavior” used to describe a bull market in stocks, you should sit back and look at the data carefully.
- “Speculative behavior” is mostly code for “the market has gone up a lot, I’ve missed out on a lot of its gains, and this is a bubble but I don’t know when it will top”. In other words, calling something “speculative behavior” is not useful for making trading decisions. Calling something “a bubble” tells you NOTHING about when the market will top.
- Nominal data always looks like “speculative behavior” because inflation causes numbers to go up in the long term.
Friday, July 06, 2018
HUI Gold Stocks Critical Juncture / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
The HUI along with most of the other PM stock indexes are at a critical point right here and now. Below is a combo chart we’ve following which has the UUP (The US Dollar Index ETF) on top and the HUI on the bottom. The UUP is building out a potential morphing bullish rising wedge consolidation pattern which would most likely give the PM complex some headwind if the price action breaks out top side. On the other hand if the rising wedge breaks down then the PM complex should have a strong tailwind at their backs. If the HUI can breakout above the top rail of its descending triangle that would be very bullish for the PM complex. As you can see the HUI and the UUP are trading at a critical inflection point right here.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Micron / China Holding Stock Markets Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just before the July 4th holiday, the US equity markets were about to rally above a defined wedge formation that has been defining price range for the past 7+ days. As the markets opened on July 3rd, prices had already started to rally and appeared to be ready to rocket higher by a decent amount. Yet, by early morning, news that China had banned Micron chip sales in a patent case caused the markets to reverse quite steadily. This news, as it relates to US chip manufacturers and a major part of the NASDAQ, creates a temporary speed bump in the perceived rally that we have been expecting for weeks.
The Technology sector makes up a very large component of the US major indexes. Other than the DOW, technology firms are spread across nearly every sector of the US major indexes and this case may have some reach to it. As the trade tariffs and trade issues continue to ramp up, these types of explosive news items can drive the markets up or down as the news hits. We consider these external factors that push the market one way or another while the core market dynamics may want to drive prices in another direction.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
Gold And Silver Precious Metals Price Outlook: Buy Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger details his forecast for precious metals markets in the second half of 2018. Given the impressive reversal in gold last Monday, which appeared to occur during the Asian and European trading sessions as opposed to the Crimex pit session, it looks like the precious metals are adhering to the well-broadcasted seasonality trade that has been fraught with random, rather than dependable, trading results, especially in the last four years. 2014 and 2016 had poor second-half performances, while 2015 and 2017 were marginally positive. What is reliable is that gold purchases in July have a greater chance for a successful trading outcome than any other month of the year, assuming, of course, that you took profits when gold popped in one of the following five months.
Friday, July 06, 2018
Trump Destroying US Empire in Trade War Against China, Europe and Canada / Politics / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And so the Trade War begins as Trump delivers on his 'America First' election slogan where at the top of his agenda is for a destructive Trade War against not just China but the whole world, which Trump sees as correcting decades of erroneous US trade policies that saw the Chinese totalitarian state literally handed trillions of dollars to invest in it's civil and military infrastructure, modernising it's third world economy at an unprecedented lightening speed, trillions of dollars coupled with valuable intellectual property stolen from the West that has put China on the fast track towards ultimately threatening US global supremacy with their own Empire that Trump chaotically has tasked himself towards preventing.
Thursday, July 05, 2018
The United States of Terror! / Politics / US Military
By: Antonius_Aquinas
Two recent articles* have again demonstrated that the greatest “terrorist” entity on earth is not the bogymen – Russia, China, Iran, North Korea – so often portrayed by Western presstitudes and the American government, but the United States itself! Ever since World War II, the US has been the most militaristic, far surpassing all of the Communist and dictatorial regimes combined.
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Thursday, July 05, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis: Is US Dollar About to Turn? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we use correlation as one tool to complement our forecast. We often use USDPLN as we believe it is good proxy for Dollar Index (DXY). In below’s chart, we overlay the two instrument, and we can clearly see they are nearly identical
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